dyamarik

So Loafs are a dog at home against Carolina.  Makes no sense - identical records and Canes are under 0.500 OTR. 

Love Crapitals at the Igloo.  Vegas and Florida had most of their top 6/top4 in the 4NFO, against Nuks and Seattle who each had basically 1 player each (Granlund and Petterson).  Might be worth a flyer bet.

Most intriguing matchup:  Jets at Blues.  Helly and Binny played a LOT of minutes in 4NFO and 2 nights ago to boot.  

Good Luck today J 

Way overdue for Math Day...

01/14  3-5-1  -0.82u

01/15  0-2  -1.05u

01/16  0-4  -2.25u

01/17  0-2  -1.0u

01/18  Benched

01/19  Benched

01/20  Benched

01/21  0-2  -1.62u

01/22  0-0-1  

01/23  0-2-1  -0.25u

01/24  0-1  -0.75u

01/25  2-2  -0.21u

01/26  0-2  -1.12u

01/27  0-1  -0.37u

01/28  0-3  -1.37

01/29   Off

01/30   Off

01/31  1-1  +0.18u

02/01  4-3  +0.36

02/02  2-6-1  -1.28u

02/03  1-1   +0.18u

02/04  Pass

02/05  Pass

02/06  0-1  -0.62

02/07  4-1  +1.11u

02/08  1-5  0.88u

02/09  0-3  -1.22u

Season to date:  245-301-12   -6.98 units

4 Nations Tourney:  13-18-1  +3.46 units  

This has been a real grind.  Gonna go light on first few days back.  No idea how teams will come out of a 2 week hiatus, plus the uncertainty of what effort we get from any of the players in the 4NFO, esp. USA & CAN.

Good to see you Mac - BOL on your play 

@Fuse BOL tonight Fuse  

Just playing 3 small parlays for action:

2LP: CAN ML & Under 5.5  +250  1/4u

2LP: Eichel & MacDaddy (Nathan) 1+ pts each  +160  1/4u

4LP: CAN +2.5  &  Under 7.5  MacDaddy 2+ SOG  &  Makar 2+ SOG  +130  1/2u

Good luck 

Well said.  R. I. P. to a great voice for hockey, not just Pittsburgh... 

Werenski is the best Offensive Defenseman USA has, and Slavin was their best defenseman over all 3 games.  McAvoy had some nice body checks in the Canada game, but Slavin is a complete shutdown Defensemen, and leads the team in minutes and +/- at 4.  And Werenski leads team in points for all Defenseman.

Charlie is a big loss for sure, but McAvoy drop off to say Sandersen is not as big a drop off when compared to Makar & the drop-off to Sanheim/Harley.

@GASportsDoc

 Rust evens out for most part across the board for most teams.  Love th Craps angle.  I suspect a =====Prediction Tonight ====== is in our not too distant future...

More interesting is what do Coaches do with players, esp those on Canada and USA.  As a Coach,  I would be inclined to Healthy Scratch every player from USA or Canada on my roster.  Its one game in a season of 82.  They need that time to rest and decompress.  Might even do both for teams that play Sunday.  These players are still human beings, and mentally, this Tournament is exciting for you and me, but mentally taxing for those 46 players. 

How do we take advantage of that?  Well that is good discourse for the Friday and Sat AM Covers forum... 

@FillyFlier16

 MacDaddy = MacKinnon.  Sorry if that came across wrong.  McJesus = McDavid.  agree with you on Coaching move.  If both are playing A-Game, that is very scary for USA.  Those two guys can just take over a shift, or a game.  USA has no one at that level of overall all around hockey talent. 

Bet you that if you offered every GM in NHL a choice of Mac or Mc Vs anyone else to start a new team, that % would be higher than 90%.  And Crosby, back in his Prime, would be #3.  Just sayin'...

12-16-1 in tourney bets so far  +3.58 units

Felt like a lot of these games were fairly predictable (USA/CAN opening brawl aside).  Problem is, there's not a lot of past data to pull from here to formulate a pick with high confidence.  Gut says Under because I think both sides clog the middle to prevent high danger shots.  Blocked Shots props might be worth a look (32 total in their H2H game).

For sides, I lean Canada.  They looked scary good in the first 30 minutes Monday, and MacDaddy tallied 2 goals.  They dominated play over a pesky Fins team, and that game was completely one-sided for most of the play.  If Mac and McDavid are humming, USA is in for a tough battle.  Binny is the concern.  He has been OK, and OK might not be enough, as the US is getting lots of good scoring looks.

Another advantage: Canada has Makar back with a game under his belt, and likely over his illness, whereas US lost McAvoy, so the tables turn there from first matchup.  In the world of gambling, this is a classic "No Bet" because of all the uncertainty, and lack of past results perspective.  But that won't stop the hockey Degens of the world.  Nothing short of lack of ice to skate on can stop us.

Leans to Under and those crazy Canuks of the North.  Really gonna look at Defensemen Block Shot props.  These guys will sell out to prevent rubber to the net. 

Love to hear what ya'all are thinking.

@GASportsDoc

 almost double degen, my friend...     good luck Doc - Thursday will be fun... 

@Coach19 

@FillyFlier16  Thursday will be epic - BOL to you and Team Canada 

Double Degen in me...

Swedes +1.5   &   Over 6.5   &   Auston 3+ SOG   &   Thursday Finals Game Canada +1.5  +530  1/2u 

Degen in me... 

Swedes +2.5   &   Over 5.5    &    Auston 2+ SOG   &   Thursday Finals Game Under 7.5   +200  1u

@thehuntman;  @CHIHAWK  thx Fellas - BOL tonight 

This Evening:

4LP:  Jake/Filip/Brady 2+ SOG each & Game Total Over 4.5  +180  1/2u

Over 6.5  +120  1/4u

Over 7.5  +285  1/8u

Over 8.5  +440  1/10u

Up 4 units on the day - not giving it all back on a meaningless game.  BOL All. 

In the world of gambling, and finding good games to bet, this is a toughie.  Canada on Revenge is a solid angle, and International play, the B2B wins over same opponent is a really low percentage (PB quoted 92% in his post).

As big a Degen I am, I may just watch this one, and root for my countrymen...

I'll take Under b4 it drops too low.

Otter in the pipes.  Matt T & Charlie Mac sitting.  Rest is up to Coaches on playing time.  I suspect they play evenly on the forwards and the D give Slavin some rest (he has the most TOI of all D USA).  I'm backing lots of shots and goals and I care not where they come from... 

 BOL buddy 

@CHIHAWK

 You, me and about 10,000 other bettors just about lost our shit when Granlund roofed that centering pass in that third goal...   Whew!!! 

Heart says USA...  brain says Canada...   Line is about right...   Hard to beat same team twice in a week when they are this evenly matched...  Makar back as well...  Why am I ending all my sentences with dot-dot-dot...???  

Canada  Puck Line -140  2u 

CAN/FIN  Over 6 -110  1u

3LP:  Crosby Over 0.5 pts   &   Marchand SOG +1.5   &   1P Over 1.5   +DK Boost +370  1/2u 

4LP:  Crosby Over 0.5 pts   &   MacDaddy SOG +1.5   &   Over 4.5   &   Canada Reg Win  +150  1u 

3-1  +4.0 units  

What a crazy Finnish...     Major Moose job on Under bettors...   Prolly take a stab at Over tonight and Swedes +1.5 in parlay with Over and something Thursday.