Ed-Collins

You are obviously unaware of why you should never hedge:

https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting-21/to-hedge-or-not-to-hedge-here-is-the-math-and-why-hedging-is-a-bad-idea-740779

@Bill7 Of course I'm serious.

Please demonstrate and provide this evidence that you seem to believe exists that the NFL is fixed. I'll wait.

And what does Tim Donaghy have to do with the NFL? He was an NBA referee who bet on games he officiated. We have evidence for all of that. When you have evidence for something, that's a valid reason for belief. That's a valid justification to warrant that belief.

We have absolutely no evidence this same thing is happening in the NFL. None. Zero. Thus, any beliefs the NFL is "fixed" is currently completely unjustified.

The time to believe in something, anything at all, is after there is evidence and a valid justification to warrant that belief. Not before.

There might be a teapot orbiting the sun, in between Earth and Mars, that is just too small to be seen with our telescopes. But until we have evidence for such an object, there is no valid reason to believe it exists.

The problem for me has been replying to posts.

One, I lose all paragraph breaks... everything is run together and makes it difficult to read.

Two, the "Quote Post" links don't work for me. I click it but the post I want to quote is not entered into this REPLY box.

I've tried multiple browsers and it's the same with all of them.

I've contacted the site and I've asked them what can I do to fix this issue... and I've heard nothing back from them.

Only if I EDIT my post after I submit it, can I then enter paragraph breaks... assuming I see that 5-Minute EDIT box.  (Sometimes I don't.)

"If you find yourself in a POSITION to hedge, you've already made a fundamental error."

kimberton: i guess it’s personal decision, but I don’t know how your saying it’s a bad idea to hedge and not guarantee a win.

"Guaranteeing a win" is not always a smart move. It can cost you money. If your goal is to win as much $$$ as you can, which is usually the case, then yes, it's a bad idea to hedge.

Let's say your chosen football team, a team that was favored by just a single point, is leading by ten points with just two minutes left to go in the game. If they cover the spread, which it look like they will almost certainly do, you win $1,000! (Your risk was $550.)

I come along and offer to buy your ticket from you, right now, for $700. Do you sell it to me?

If your answer is no, they why not? I'm offering you guaranteed money! There's still a few minutes left to play! Anything could still happen in this game!

You paid $550 for it and I'm offering you $700 right here and now! It's guaranteed money! It's a guaranteed profit!

Well, of course you shouldn't sell it to me or anyone else. At least not for $700. The reason is simple - that ticket, at this moment in time, is worth much more than $700.

Depending upon exact game scenario (exactly how much time is left and who has the ball), that ticket is probably worth closer to to $950 or $1,000... or more.

This is EXACTLY what happens when you hedge. You sell something for less than what it's worth. You normally do NOT want to do this, whether you're selling a car or a house or whatever.

Hedging comes at a price and YOU have to pay that price.

You will make more money in a very short period of time if you never hedge.

Let's say you bet a four-team parlay each and every weekend, for the next two years. Let's say you are fortunate enough to win the first three legs of your parlay each and every time. So you, with your logic to "guarantee a win," hedge your bet each time.

Let's say I also bet a four-team parlay each and every weekend, for the next two years. I am also fortunate enough to win the first three legs each and every time. And yet I chose NOT to ever hedge and let it ride.

You won 104 weekends in a row. You won every single weekend. You guaranteed a profit each and every week.

And yet I, most likely, only won half of my bets. (In all probability, I lost that last leg about half the time.)

And yet who has more money, me or you?

Yes, I do.

Do the math. Despite you not halving a single losing weekend, because of all of your hedging, I have more money than you.

Ah. Division winners. (And not just making the playoffs.) Thanks.

Either way, you really should do the math. Estimate the overall probability of the event occurring. Give it an actual percentage, even though you don't see it happening. (Few people "saw" the Eagles losing at home to the Cardinals this past weekend, for example, but it happened.)

After estimating the probability of the event, determine how much it will cost you to accept the buyout.

I suspect you will be selling your ticket at a value far below what its true value is. You don't want to do that. If you do that regularly, you will not be a winner.

Oh, sure you might be a winner short term, but that's not the goal. You want to be a winner year in and year out, not just on any particular weekend.

The buyout is a type of hedging. If you want to maximize your long-term profits, do NOT hedge.

Let's say your chosen football team, a team that was favored by just a single point, is leading by ten points with just a few minutes left to go in the game. If they cover the spread, which it look like they will almost certainly do, you win $1,000.00! (Your risk was $550.00.)

I come along and offer to buy your ticket from you, right now, for $700. Do you sell it to me?

If your answer is no, they why not? I'm offering you guaranteed money! There's still a few minutes left to play! Anything could still happen in this game!

Well, of course you shouldn't sell it to me or anyone else. At least not for $700. The reason is simple - that ticket, at this moment in time, is worth much more than $700.00. Depending upon exact game scenario (exactly how much time is left and who has the ball), that ticket is probably worth closer to to $950.

This is EXACTLY what happens when you hedge. You sell something for less than what it's worth. You normally do NOT want to do this, whether you're selling a car or a house or whatever.

Hedging comes at a price and YOU have to pay that price.

You will make more money in a very short period of time if you never hedge. To put it another way, if you and I bet on the same teams/games, and you hedge whenever you can and I never hedge, I will very soon have more money than you. Maybe not that weekend... maybe not that month... but very soon.

I'm not sure I understand the bet. You win the bet if Buffalo and Dallas and New Orleans all make the postseason?

If so, you have to look at what happens long term.

In order for the Saints to make the playoffs, they have to defeat the Falcons, and the Bucs have to lose to the Panthers.

(Actually, there are other ways for the Saints to make the playoffs. For example, they can win and the Packers lose or tie plus the Seahawks lose or tie. However, we can ignore these other ways for the moment.)

The Saints are favored by about 4. This corresponds to a winning percentage of about 63%.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/

The Panthers are underdogs by about 5 points. This corresponds to a winning percentage of about 25%.

The chances of both events happening are the probability of the two individual events.

.63 x .25 is roughly 16%.

16% of the time you will win $1,596, for a total of $25,536.

84% of the time you will lose $11, for a total loss of -$924.

Your net for these 100 events is $26,460. This $26,460 is what you can expect if you let the bet stand, and played it out 100 times. (Naturally, you can adjust the winning percentages a tiny bit, if you don't feel they are accurate.)

OR, it appears you can take the $156 buyout offer right now, for a total of $15,600. $156 x 100 = $15,600)

This is what you can expect if you take the buyout, all 100 times.

As you can see, the buyout offered to you is far short of what you would receive long term.

Many posters here, like the1toturn2, will tell you to take the "guaranteed" money. Taking "guaranteed money" is not always a smart move and I can prove it with very simple examples. You have to think long term.

(My apologies if my paragraphs are lost when I post this. I still am having a formatting problem when posting.)