erratic

erratic
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Last Activity: 13 August 2024
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created a topic King of Covers - NFL
in King of Covers

Is there going to be a contest this year?

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erratic 2
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replied to NFL Futures!
in NFL Betting
This is the year the Saints get redemption...
  • 9-2 Saints win NFC Championship
  • 10-1 Saints win Super Bowl
  • 8-1 Drew Brees takes the passing title
  • 12-1 Michael Thomas takes the receiving title
  • 12-1 Drew Brees takes home the league MVP
Show me the money!!!
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OldGreg808 10
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replied to Bills will win vs the Chargers (+240)(Eminem Killed MGK)
in NFL Betting
Chargers by 17 - Book It!
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BettingMessiah 29
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replied to JBx11's Streak
in Streak Survivor

11 hrs to go....

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smoothd20 208
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replied to Minnesota at Green Bay(9/16/2018 2:00:00 PM)
in Pro Football

If the line was GB +7 would you still take MIN?

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Covers 6
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replied to Football Winners All Season Long!!
in NFL Betting
Nobody wants to see CFB pics in the NFL area... stop wasting peoples time. 
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BookieKiller01 268
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replied to Supercontest line: Packers +7
in NFL Betting

[/Quote] His status is up in the air currently, as evidenced by the lack of line being posted across all major sportsbooks. [/Quote]

Will Hill has Packers listed as -1

If you go to SBR Forum or Don Best Odds the game is listed as either a pick em or GB -1.

Based on that & the fact that ARod was adamant about playing in the post game LW - "Oh I'm playing." is what he said with an "are you kidding me" look on his face.

Supercontest: GB+7 seems like a steal.

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erratic 4
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created a topic Supercontest line: Packers +7
in NFL Betting

You read it right.... GB +7 at home. Obviously this line is on the tthought that ARod won't be playing but from all I read he will be playing.

Is this a trap?

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erratic 4
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replied to MARK LAWRENCE BOOK IS OUT ON STANDS
in NFL Betting

Quote Originally Posted by tahoejoe2:

Can't find it anywhere?Where in Calif?

Barnes & Noble - $13

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bpickin 14
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replied to Niners +3.....
in NFL Betting
Problem is that you are trying to bet on a crap team that is playing a crap team. They are both crap even if one doesn't smell as bad.
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lmb4321 19
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replied to Official System Picks Week 12
in NFL Betting
Bucs & Saints. On Jags. No plays on the others.
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footballsmart 8
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replied to System produces high probability pick this week
in NFL Betting
TB is on my ticket too... very high probability from my sheets as well.
BOL to both of us
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footballsmart 11
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replied to someone likes seattle ???
in NFL Betting
SEA -2.5
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chido 14
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replied to System needs Falcons +2.5 for winning week
in NFL Betting
On the other side here.... I need Hawks for a 4-1 week. Rams did me bad too. A Seattle win tonight would put me at 15-5 L4W
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footballsmart 2
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replied to Bacon Power - 2017 SuperContest picks - week 11
in NFL Betting
LAR +2
On to the next one... All Rams. All day.
We all know that these are both good teams. But when you look inside the numbers you will see that LA is a better road team than the Vikes are a home team. Of curse Minny holds one of the best HFA in the league but the Red Hot Rams are coming to town and their numbers speak louder than the Vikings numbers do.
Enough with that. 

First and foremost... Who have each of these played? Where did the 7 wins come from? Against who? When you look you see that the Vikings came out on top against WAS, CLE, BAL, GB, CHI, TB & in week 1, the Saints. Not that impressive is it? Switch over and you find out that the Rams took care of business against HOU AZ NYG JAC DAL SF & IND. Not that impressive is it? Actually that is just to prove a point that even though these two have good records their performances have not truly been tested. 

Step into this game and the LAR #1 3rd down offense will make it happen against the MIN #2 3rd down defense. It will be decided right there. The Rams #1 8.9 YPPA along with their #5 TD Pass every 18 completions will also be in rhythm Sunday. Even though MIN has a respectable sack rate of 13 good for 2.2% the Rams are a 11 sack rate good for 8.5%. Essentially this will be a battle.
FINAL SCORE: Rams 30 Vikings 23
 

Note: I typed that up late last night so if its incoherent that is why.
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erratic 3
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replied to Bacon Power - 2017 SuperContest picks - week 11
in NFL Betting
JAC -7.5
Can the Jags do it? Of course I think so. 
Last week was a bad beat for sure. If there was a game LW that looked like the refs were in on that was it. The "down by contact" overruling at the end was crap. It was even a topic on sports radio the next day. There was ZERO clear-cut evidence that that defender was touched & therefore the call of a TD should have stood. Then after that with 1st and goal from the 1 they were pushed back due to a taunting penalty that was questionable. Then in OT they get another 1st & goal from the 1 & ANOTHER taunting penalty forces them into a FG victory leaving the hook to hook me with. That turn of events kept me from a 4-1. Anyway, on to my analysis. 

This really is a match-up of opposites. Sacksonville are cream of the crop & Cleveland is sweeping the floors everywhere they go. The Browns do have a decent run defense. They actually lead the league at 3.1 YPC but that's all they have going for them. That is not a concern to me though. The disarray that revolves around the Browns franchise & the top flight defense by the Jags will keep them under 14 pts & the Browns simply aren't good enough to keep JAC out of the endzone. 

CLE allows scoring 76% of the time. The only defense that is worse in the redzone is the Dolphins defense. 
The Jags RZDEF is coming in at 43.8% which is good enough for 5th best. 

On 3rd down the discrepancy is even more so. CLE 3rd down offense is the worst in the league converting a mere 29% of the time. On the flip side the Jags 3rd down defense is top a notch at 33.6% - tied for 7th with the Ravens. 

The Jags also beat the Browns in both offensive & defensive negative pass play percentage. The Jags are averaging 4.4 sacks per game while only giving up 1.6 per game. The Browns are giving up sacks every 14 drop backs & the Jags are getting them every 8 drop backs. CLE is throwing a pick every 19 pass attempts as well. Whereas the Jags are only throwing a pick every 26 pass attempts.

The Jags also own a passer rating differential of 58.28. This one will get out of hand early too. CLE offense is only generating 6.3 first half points & the Jags are generating 12.8 first half points.
Book & be ready to bank it.... Jags by double digits.
FINAL SCORE: Jags 27 Brows 13
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erratic 3
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created a topic Bacon Power - 2017 SuperContest picks - week 11
in NFL Betting
Looking for another strong week here. 
11-4 L3W. 3-2, 5-0, 3-2.......... the comeback continues.
  • JAC -7.5
  • LAR +2
  • NE -6.5
  • PHI -3.5
  • SEA -2.5
YTD: 24-25-1
All I need to do is average a 4-1 from here on out. Getting to a 52.5 should be good enough for a payday. Time will tell...
BOLTA & MTSBWY
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erratic 3
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replied to Official System Picks Week 11
in NFL Betting
Quote Originally Posted by footballsmart:

The system has spoken and these are the picks for week 11 below. Let me know if you think I have a winning card. The overall system record in this plodding long-term approach to establish it as either good or not is currently 85-83-7 after 175 games predicted in advance here on covers over the past 3 years. Here goes this week:

Rams +2 
Bengals +2.5
Falcons +2.5
Giants +10.5
Raiders +6.5


I'm with you on the Rams & the Bengals were on my short list but didn't quite make the cut. They do have a good chance to win outright IMO. Very likely I put them on a ML dog ticket. Can't say I agree with the others though. I'm on Seattle & New England and Kansas City was on the sort list too. I can see the Giants with a back door cover so you have a chance in my sheets.
GL & MTSBWY
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footballsmart 12
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created a topic Steelers in prime time for the next month...
in NFL Betting
Get ready for a lot of Prime Time PIT
  • WK11 Thursday vs Titans
  • WK12 SunN vs Packers
  • WK13 MNF vs Bengals
  • WK14 SunN  vs Ravens
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erratic 6
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created a topic SuperContest lines - Week 11
in NFL Betting

Week 11 SuperContest lines are listed below...

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 2017             

1 Steelers*      2 Titans 7

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 2017  

3 Lions  4 Bears*               2.5

5 Chiefs                6 Giants*             10.5

7 Buccaneers     8 Dolphins*        Pick'em

9 Ravens              10 Packers*        2

11 Vikings*         12 Rams               2

13 Cardinals        14 Texans*         Pick'em

15 Jaguars           16 Browns*        7.5

17 Saints*            18 Redskins        7.5

19 Chargers*      20 Bills   5.5

21 Broncos*       22 Bengals           2.5

23 Patriots           24 Raiders**      6.5

25 Eagles              26 Cowboys*     3.5

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2017

27 Seahawks*   28 Falcons           2.5

*Home team     **Mexico City  

Favorite on left

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erratic 1
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