f430

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created a topic Jets fake injuries!! in NFL Betting Somebody needs to call the Jets out on all those fake injuries that slowed down the game at critical points in the Patriots' drives. On almost every injury that resulted in an "injury timeout," the injured player played in the next play after the play where he was required to sit out. Not the first time that they've done it: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/14024962/newest-craze-in-nfl-cheating-hamstring-hoax View Post \| View Thread	f430	11	January 16, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to $$$ BOWL PICKS ARE UP!!! $$$ in College Football nice job! View Post \| View Thread	kansas24	84	January 04, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to San Diego & Cincinnati in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by ozzwald: Good info man. It failed last night with ORL / CLEVELAND as well. But my point is: If you wait until you find a team which scores over 108 while holding opponents to less than 88... in back-to-back games.... You could wait an entire season and not find that opportunity. So I'm just trying to make the same approach more practical I suppose in the sense that the bettor would get more opportunities to bet games by lowering the standard deviation. I may just use my handicapping for the lazy technique for tonight... went 2-0 yesterday. You're right - the >108/<88 score combo/back to back is extremely rare. Like I mentioned above, it has only happened 12 times going back to 1996! Given that there's 1,300+ games per season -- well, you do the math! Even if it does come along, your chance of winning would only be 66%-70%. I understand that the % is still high by some standards, but I don't think it would compel someone to wait around to bet the farm on it. If the standard deviation is lowered, the winning % drops significantly. View Post \| View Thread	tafter12	89	December 29, 2010 View Post \| View Thread
replied to San Diego & Cincinnati in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by tafter12: BTW, Can you show more than 1 counterexample to the overall idea. I saw Baltimore 08, but hell, even NE in 08 didn't have this circumstance come up. Hell, the 85 bears lost both times ATS that year when this situation happenned twice. I think were all going to have to see more examples that argue against what we believe we've found here. Sure: 2009 Vikings vs Saints [Playoffs]: https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nfl/teams/pastresults/2009-2010/team6.html 2004 Colts vs Titans [Week 13]: https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nfl/teams/pastresults/2004-2005/team13.html View Post \| View Thread	tafter12	89	December 28, 2010 View Post \| View Thread
replied to San Diego & Cincinnati in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by tafter12: What about for going against a team with back to back 20 pt wins? the 100/90 was an idea we had discussed, but I don't endorse. I do believe there's something to be said about 2 st devs for back to back weeks. I think there's only been about 12 instances of this scenario occurring going back to 1996 (surprisingly, 4 in 2010). In this case, your win % would be about 70%. View Post \| View Thread	tafter12	89	December 28, 2010 View Post \| View Thread
replied to San Diego & Cincinnati in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by tafter12: Is this perhaps for when the 3rd game is a road game then? both of our plays tonight are against road teams. Thanks for bringing it up. The initial idea looked correct. Your chance of winning increases from 70% to over 90% when the third game in that scenario is against an opponent that's not in the same division (e.g., Chargers vs Bengals). It doesn't seem to matter if it's a home vs a road game. View Post \| View Thread	tafter12	89	December 28, 2010 View Post \| View Thread
replied to San Diego & Cincinnati in NFL Betting For the NBA strategy (100+ & <90), your win percentage will be a little less than 50%. Recent example is Heats vs Hornets on 12/13. Two games prior, Heats won 104-83 & 106-84. I show about 6 other instances in the current NBA season alone. View Post \| View Thread	tafter12	89	December 28, 2010 View Post \| View Thread
replied to San Diego & Cincinnati in NFL Betting Don't mean to burst anyone's bubble, but I think that the NFL strategy that's being mentioned in this thread is far from being "undefeated." Based on my count, it's 6-16 ATS going back to 1991 (includes playoff games). A recent non-playoff example is 2008 week 14 Ravens vs Redskins, where Ravens won 24-10 against a -6 line. Two games prior to that game: 2008 Week 13: Ravens vs Bengals, score 34-3 2008 Week 12: Ravens vs Eagles, score 36-7 https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nfl/teams/pastresults/2008-2009/team24.html This system has been around for awhile, but the original one requires that you add another condition: that the third game is against a non-div team. Even that system is not undefeated (2-19 ATS going back to 1990). View Post \| View Thread	tafter12	89	December 28, 2010 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Chung Hot Sunday Divisional Payoff ! in NFL Betting Let's Chung some ! View Post \| View Thread	chungnuoc	93	January 11, 2009 View Post \| View Thread
replied to J MAC is a girl in NFL Betting What happened to him? They kept zooming in on him, but they didn't mentioned what happened? View Post \| View Thread	Swiss_cheese	4	January 10, 2009 View Post \| View Thread
replied to I'M SICK OF THIS COIN TOSS B.S. in NFL Betting Yea, bet you wouldn't have made this post if the outcome was different. View Post \| View Thread	Coach19	36	January 04, 2009 View Post \| View Thread
replied to for crying out loud why cant u chargers backers make gambling easier than what it is in NFL Betting View Post \| View Thread	jaysfan	19	January 04, 2009 View Post \| View Thread
replied to **HAWAIIAN ATHLETES I SWEAR***** in College Football** Quote Originally Posted by Jedda: Jamaica? WTF? View Post \| View Thread	jrarguello05	7	December 24, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
replied to is beted.com down?? in College Basketball View Post \| View Thread	kashl2008	10	December 20, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic AFC playoff picture in NFL Betting Does the Colt's win tonight have any effects on any other team's playoff hopes? View Post \| View Thread	f430	2	December 19, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Let us all give thanks to Keiwan Ratliff aka "Nightcrawler" for his INT for a TD to cover in NFL Betting View Post \| View Thread	GGLeaf055	28	December 19, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Let us all give thanks to Keiwan Ratliff aka "Nightcrawler" for his INT for a TD to cover in NFL Betting View Post \| View Thread	GGLeaf055	28	December 19, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Let us all give thanks to Keiwan Ratliff aka "Nightcrawler" for his INT for a TD to cover in NFL Betting View Post \| View Thread	GGLeaf055	28	December 19, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Dont Get Suckered Here JAGS are the play in NFL Betting View Post \| View Thread	bander16	41	December 19, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
replied to CHUNG 2 Games ACTION !!! in NFL Betting Dear Chung- We love u. you wrote " these are finalss !!!! " Whyyyyyyyyy cap stop this week??! if no cap then no money too soon!!! View Post \| View Thread	chungnuoc	19	December 18, 2008 View Post \| View Thread

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