FadeMeForever

Thanks 

So they fixed the total, but my bet is still there. We'll see. The pessimist in me says they are waiting to see if it loses first, if not they'll cancel.

Thanks. I guess it's a good thing, just wanted to make sure it wasn't an injury(s) I wasn't aware of. If it is an error, they'll most likely cancel it soon enough tho. 

My book has it at 127? I already hit the over, but everywhere else I look it's 157? Error? Injury? Help?

FMF

Hey all :

I know many like myself have models they work with. So here's my question :

How do you work with pace from two opposing teams, once you have your number for each?

Many experts will take the two teams' numbers and compare with the league average, either additively (e.g. kenpom) or multiplicatively (others). For example , if Team A has a pace of 80 and Team B 70, and the league average is 60, some would say the predicted game pace would be the sum of the differences (60+20+10)=90..or alternatively 80*70/60 = 93.33. 

I have some issues with this. If the Ants take 15 seconds a possession, and the Bees 20, (league average is 10) then the Ants poss per min is 4, and the Bees 3. On average, depending on who had the ball first, the poss per min for both would be somewhere between 3.33 and 3.5. But if I use the logic above, the predicted pace would be 2.4 (additive) or 2 (multiplicative) which seems wrong. A simple average of the two would make more sense.

I know I rambled on, but I thought it would be a good convo to start. Hope to hear some good input.

FMF

Adding :

American +23

Montana St./ Omaha u162

Miami OH/DePaul u137.5

YTD : 31-18 +11.2 Units

Starting with these today. Should have some more later.

Bowling Green PK

Western Illinois +18.5

Tennessee Tech +13

Idaho -5.5

GLE.

5-7 -2.7 Units 

YTD : 31-18 +11.2 Units

Thx.

Adding :

Northeastern/St. Bonaventure u146.5

James Madison/Florida o147

Albany/Louisville o143.5

That should say Wagner +22. 

Adding :

Furman +22

Thx Legit.

Adding :

James Madison +21

Evansville +28.5

Towson +4.5

Georgetown -8.5

Little Rock/Miss St. u132.5

Valparaiso -7

GLE.

Thx DC.

Adding :

UNLV -30.5

YTD : 26-11 +13.9 Units

Coming off of yesterday's sweep, so expecting the mean regression to bite today......

Grabbing this one to start, as line has already moved 1.5 against me :

Utah -24.5

Will have more later.

GLE.

W. Illinois +4.5 W

E. Tennessee St. -8 Push

Dartmouth +26.5 W

Cleveland St. +9.5 W

Canisius-2 W

Arkansas St. +29.5 W

Illinois Chicago +9 W

Murray St. +4.5 W

N. Colorado +9.5 W

S. Dakota +7.5 W

Rice +15.5 W

UC Davis +17 W

11-0-1 + 11 Units !!!!! 

YTD : 26 - 11  +13.9 Units

Adding :

N. Colorado +9.5

S. Dakota +7.5

Rice +15.5

UC Davis +17

4 more doggies.....

GLE.

Thx guys.

Adding :

Dartmouth +26.5

Cleveland St. +9.5

Canisius -2

Arkansas St. +29.5

Illinois Chicago +9

Murray St. +4.5

Hopefully it's a dog day. Will add late plays a little later.

GLE.

YTD : 15-11 +2.9 Units

All 1 unit unless otherwise noted.

Definitely will have alot more later, but grabbing these 2 as lines already moving :

W. Illinois +4.5

E. Tennessee St. -8

GLE.

N. Illinois +16.5 W

E. Carolina -3 L

S. Florida -8 W

Idaho/W. Michigan u140.5 W

IPFW+13.5 W (outright)

N. Dakota St. +22.5 L

Valparaiso-1.5 W

5-2 +2.8 Units 

YTD : 10-9 + 0.1 Units

All are to win 1 Unit.

N. Illinois +16.5

E. Carolina -3

S. Florida -8

Idaho/W. Michigan u140.5

IPFW +13.5

N. Dakota St. +22.5

Valparaiso -1.5

GLE.

YTD : 6-5 +0.7 Units

All are 1 U

Little Rock/Bradley over 124.5

Wisconsin -6

UNC Wilmington +8.5

UNC Wilmington/UNC Greensboro under 156

Denver/N. Colorado over 140

Longwood +29.5

Longwood/Illinois over 149

Grand Canyon/ Boise State over 134

GLE.