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Member Since: February 2013

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replied to If I was a Betting Man in NBA Betting Stats updated. Ranges for Saturday the 2nd of March are below: GS/PHI OVER 190.0 <= UNDER >= 197.5 BKN/CHI OVER <= 190.0 UNDER >= 192.5 TOR/MIL OVER <= 188.5 UNDER >= 195.5 MIN/POR OVER <= 184.0 UNDER >= 201.5 View Post \| View Thread	firstLast	53	March 02, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to If I was a Betting Man in NBA Betting Results (Overall 5-10) MAR 1, 2013 (1-3) IND/TOR UNDER 185.5 WIN NY/WAS NO BET HOU/ORL UNDER 213.0 LOSS GS/BOS NO BET LAC/CLE NO BET MEM/MIA NO BET DAL/BKN OVER 194.5 LOSS DET/NO NO BET SAC/SAN UNDER 214.5 LOSS CHA/UTA NO BET ATL/PHX NO BET OKC/DEN NO BET View Post \| View Thread	firstLast	53	March 02, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to If I was a Betting Man in NBA Betting Stats updated. Here are the ranges for Friday, 1st of March. IND/TOR OVER <= 169.5 UNDER >= 185.5 NY/WAS OVER <= 186.5 UNDER >=196.0 HOU/ORL OVER <= 199.5 UNDER >= 206.0 GS/BOS OVER <= 185.0 UNDER >= 201.5 LAC/CLE OVER <= 189.5 UNDER >= 202.0 MEM/MIA OVER <= 185.0 UNDER >= 194.0 DAL/BKN OVER <= 195.0 UNDER >= 200.0 DET/NO OVER <= 185.5 UNDER >= 202.5 SAC/SAN OVER <= 184.5 UNDER >= 193.5 CHA/UTA OVER <= 185.5 UNDER >= 196.5 ATL/PHX OVER <= 192.0 UNDER >= 198.5 OKC/DEN OVER <= 200.5 UNDER >= 221.0 View Post \| View Thread	firstLast	53	March 01, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to If I was a Betting Man in NBA Betting Results (Overall 4-7) FEB 26, 2013 (0-2) LAC/IND NO BET PHI/CHI UNDER 178.5 LOSS MIN/LAL OVER 205.5 LOSS View Post \| View Thread	firstLast	53	March 01, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to If I was a Betting Man in NBA Betting Stats updated. Here are the ranges for Thursday the 28th. LAC/IND OVER <= 179.5 UNDER >= 197.5 PHI/CHI OVER <= 179.5 UNDER >= 190.5 MIN/LAL OVER <= 196.0 UNDER >= 201.5 View Post \| View Thread	firstLast	53	February 28, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to If I was a Betting Man in NBA Betting Results (Overall 4-5) FEB 26, 2013 (1-3) *DEN/POR NO BET changed to UNDER @ 211.5 SAC/ORL UNDER 205.5 LOSS TOR/CLE NO BET DET/WAS NO BET GS/NY NO BET DAL/MEM NO BET MIL/HOU UNDER 220.0 WIN NO/OKC NO BET PHX/SAN UNDER 198.5 LOSS ATL/UTA NO BET DEN/POR UNDER 211.5 LOSS View Post \| View Thread	firstLast	53	February 28, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to If I was a Betting Man in NBA Betting @boston8404 - If you have a reasonable model and stay consistent, then there's nothing wrong with that. It's the consistency with a logical model that is important. Moreover, it's much easier to be consistent with numbers than with subjective observations; hence, I choose statistics as my means of differentiation. However, if you are able to maintain wagering rationally and consistently, then any criticisms to your model is unfounded. View Post \| View Thread	firstLast	53	February 27, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to If I was a Betting Man in NBA Betting @AFNfootballnerd - Forgot to state, if the LINE results in a NO BET, then it's a NO BET. It doesn't matter even if it's 0.5 points off, it's still a NO BET. The recommendations are predicated on meeting or exceeding a certain point in order to meet or exceed 53% certainty. View Post \| View Thread	firstLast	53	February 27, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to If I was a Betting Man in NBA Betting @AFNfootballnerd - If the bookmaker's line falls between the listed range, then it's a NO BET. I haven't analyzed football and feel that it's much harder to predict as you're working with less games per season. @boston8404 - I don't follow that way of thinking, because I believe it to be flawed. Picking based on teams you follow is more susceptible to confirmation bias. Things that confirm your observations tend to get noted, while other events are treated as anomalies. Through a purely statistical method, recommendations are generally more consistent. View Post \| View Thread	firstLast	53	February 27, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to If I was a Betting Man in NBA Betting FEB 27, 2013 Picks (Track Record 3-2) Lines as of 5:19PM SAC/ORL UNDER 205.5 TOR/CLE NO BET DET/WAS NO BET GS/NY NO BET DAL/MEM NO BET MIL/HOU UNDER 220.0 NO/OKC NO BET PHX/SAN UNDER 198.5 ATL/UTA NO BET DEN/POR NO BET View Post \| View Thread	firstLast	53	February 27, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to If I was a Betting Man in NBA Betting PLEASE NOTE: My mistake, the <> signs should be switched. For example: SAC/ORL OVER <= 185.5 UNDER >=200.5 means, OVER recommendation if LINE is less than or equal to 185.5 UNDER recommendation if LINE is greater than or equal to 200.5 NO BET otherwise View Post \| View Thread	firstLast	53	February 27, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to If I was a Betting Man in NBA Betting I've updated the statistics for Wednesday. Here are the conditions for the games of FEB 27th. I will be providing these ranges in the case I am not around a computer when the fixtures are about to start. SAC/ORL OVER >= 185.5 UNDER <= 200.5 TOR/CLE OVER >= 188 UNDER <= 199.0 DET/WAS OVER >= 181.5 UNDER <= 198.0 GS/NY OVER >= 178.0 UNDER <= 206.0 DAL/MEM OVER >= 187.0 UNDER <= 197.5 MIL/HOU OVER >= 195.0 UNDER <= 210.5 NO/OKC OVER >= 201.5 UNDER <= 207.0 PHX/SAN OVER >= 189.0 UNDER <= 198.0 ATL/UTA OVER >= 188.0 UNDER <= 205.5 DEN/POR OVER >= 201.0 UNDER <= 211.0 View Post \| View Thread	firstLast	53	February 27, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to If I was a Betting Man in NBA Betting Results (Overall 3-2) FEB 26, 2013 (3-2) ORL/PHI OVER 185.5 LOSS GS/IND NO BET SAC/MIA UNDER 209.0 LOSS CLE/CHI OVER 185.5 WIN BKN/NO OVER 185.0 WIN MIL/DAL UNDER 212.5 WIN MIN/PHX NO BET CHA/LAC NO BET View Post \| View Thread	firstLast	53	February 27, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to If I was a Betting Man in NBA Betting 6:52PM Update CLE/CHI OVER 185.5 View Post \| View Thread	firstLast	53	February 26, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to If I was a Betting Man in NBA Betting @spazbite - Think of the all the possible scores as a bell curve. The more likely results lie in the middle. For the sake of example, let's assume Team A and Team B play. LINE is given to be 200. However, the model predicts a total of 199. Is 199 different enough from 200 to warrant an UNDER bet? How about if the model prediction was 150? Is 150 different enough from 200 to make a move? The model tests whether or not this variation is statistically significant. Hence, you will see NO BET when the fixture looks to be a coin flip in the eyes of statistics. View Post \| View Thread	firstLast	53	February 26, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to If I was a Betting Man in NBA Betting @basesloaded101 - Relatively speaking, my system is very simple. There's just a lot of number crunching to do, which makes it seem complicated. The only statistical tools I use are averages, standard deviations, and skews. View Post \| View Thread	firstLast	53	February 26, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to If I was a Betting Man in NBA Betting Alrighty, a new day with fresh NBA fixtures. Since this will mark the first time the model will make recommendations BEFORE the games start (my original post was tested a posteriori), I will make final adjustments to the model that will stay consistent for the remainder of the season. The risk aversion rate will remain the same at 53% (my curiosity is to at least break even), and the skew adjustment will be changed from -3 to -10 points per unit of skew. The latter change more heavily emphasizes teams with skewed normal distributions. FEB 26, 2013 Picks (Track Record 0-0) Lines as of 12:33PM ORL/PHI OVER 188.0 GS/IND NO BET 197.5 SAC/MIA UNDER 210.5 CLE/CHI NO BET 187.5 BKN/NO OVER 185.5 MIL/DAL UNDER 211.0 MIN/PHX NO BET 195.5 CHA/LAC NO BET 198.5 View Post \| View Thread	firstLast	53	February 26, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to If I was a Betting Man in NBA Betting @TsikenBreast - One of the model's assumptions is that the lines set by Vegas do not necessarily have to be "statistically balanced." Also, the model tests whether or not the margin from the LINE is statistically significant. There are variables that we can change to make the rules for betting more strict or lax, depending on our risk personality. For example, if the risk aversion rate is set to 53% and the skew adjustment is set to -5 points scored per unit of skew, then LAL/DEN would have been a NO BET. @Frank the Bank - Assuming a 10% cut, 52% will not even break even. You need 52.38% for that. However, 53% would theoretically generate a profit, albeit a small one. @robe983 - My background is in finance, and I believe sports betting can more consistent than investing in the stock market. View Post \| View Thread	firstLast	53	February 26, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to If I was a Betting Man in NBA Betting I posted in chunks, because it kept giving me a 7800 character limit error (even though my original post was under). --- Previous Picks: (5-3) FEB 24, 2013 LAL/DAL UNDER WIN GS/MIN UNDER WIN CLE/MIA NO BET SAC/NO UNDER LOSS MEM/BKN OVER LOSS PHI/NY OVER WIN SAN/PHX UNDER WIN BOS/POR NO BET CHI/OKC NO BET FEB 25, 2013 WAS/TOR NO BET ATL/DET NO BET LAL/DEN UNDER LOSS BOS/UTA OVER WIN View Post \| View Thread	firstLast	53	February 26, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to If I was a Betting Man in NBA Betting OK, now the structure of the model is laid down. It's time to run through how the model operates: Input the AWAY and HOME teams Model gathers the scoring average [SA], opponent scoring average [OSA], and road scoring average [RSA] for the AWAY team Model also gathers the SA, OSA, and home scoring average [HSA] for the HOME team Input the betting LINE Model factors in skew characteristics for all relevant variables (an explanation for this step would require its own thread). Adjust variables from step 3 if needed. Model compares AWAY SA + HOME SA, AWAY OSA + HOME OSA, RSA + HSA to LINE Model provides three recommendations based on the three comparisons in step 6 If the three recommendations from step 7 are the same, then the appropriate OVER/UNDER bet will be recommended. If they aren't the same, then NO BET is recommended. Let's run through an example: We'll set the risk tolerance (actually risk aversion rate) to 53%. Each recommendation has to be at least 53% statistically sure for OVER/UNDER, otherwise, NO BET For the teams, we'll use LAL/DEN on FEB 25, 2013 AWAY SA + HOME SA = 207.7; 210.7(skew adjusted) AWAY OSA + HOME OSA = 203; 203 RSA + HSA = 211.1; 211.6 LINE of 217.5 First recommendations: UNDER 68.3%/UNDER 80.6%/UNDER 67.5% Last recommendations: UNDER because previous recommendations matched with reasonable certainty Watch the game Curse obscenities as LAL/DEN goes OVER View Post \| View Thread	firstLast	53	February 26, 2013 View Post \| View Thread

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