Froggy80

@Doc_Holliday

And it may still be viable, but when the data changes, so must the metrics on what a good system looks like. I need to tweak the gauges so that I weed out the outliers and block any potential sweeps. For example, if I allowed low quality teams back into the model, sure, in the long run the model is still profitable, but there will be more sweeps. So, imagine you get swept twice in a row before we go on a 100 win run. Those first 2 will hurt like hell, and you wouldn’t want to continue.

I think I fucked up.

I was looking at all of my data, and it seems that I collected the odds incorrectly from several sites. After I cleaned a ton of it up... well fuck! . I may be sidelined for a bit... but something else happened.

I have absolutely no idea how this could be even feasible, but using the same picking method as the quarter method, I was running a full-gate ATS analysis on the side, and it's showing a 83.697% win rate!! I have never heard of anyone having a hit rate that high consistently over several years. I'm going to make sure this isn't some weird fluke in the sheet, but if it isn't... well, forget the martingale. I'll absolutely run the full game ATS model.

In the meantime, I apologize for putting you guys at risk, and I'm just glad I found the bug now rather than later. I'll be back.

Clean Sweeps last night:

Philadelphia 76ers

Nothing on the cards for tonight. See you guys on Tuesday.

We're now at a record of 4 - 0.

Clean Sweeps last night:

Houston Rockets

Nothing on the cards for tonight. See you guys on Monday.

Winner winner chicken dinner!

1Q and out! 

@tvigilante2020

I’ve been collecting data for several years. The data was scraped off of several site like sportbookreview, team ranking, and even covers.

@tvigilante2020

Hey Froggy, in your database, what are the spreads that have the high hit % when betting on quarters?

It doesn't work like that, but you can look over the analysis. I updated the same google sheet.

@tvigilante2020

This is very much the reason why this system isn't created for everyone.

Wait, hold up....are you telling me on that spreadsheet, those were all the teams that were +12 or more dogs and LOST all 4 quarters in a game since 2019?

Yes. All of the box scores are on the table. The ATS odds are on the right side of each row.

Also sorry, I'd like to glean the info in the regular season only, thanks.

2 playoff games were removed. The rest are regular season matches.

The Dogs (Odds of 12 or more) -- losing all 4 quarters ATS

Google Sheet

@tvigilante2020

define: "poor road team"

and do you mean that they were swept, and then see how they do at home or anywhere?

@tvigilante2020

I can run that scenario for you with the data I have. I'll let you know once I've done the analysis.

Clean Sweeps last night:

Atlanta Hawks 
Portland Trail Blazers 

Record: 3 - 0

Today's Pick:

Charlotte Hornets  1Q +2.5  --- and additional quarters if necessary

@nolemonasses

 Those odds are absolutely terrible. I'm not sure who you're using, but -189 is horrendous. There are a number of off-shore books that offer muuuuch better than that. I'm not promoting, but BetNow, Bovada, BetOnline are all reasonable options. Just saying...

For everyone who tailed. Congrats.

For everyone who had terrible odds. That's on the book, not me.

Record 3 - 0

I've added an image of the spreadsheet that I use. There are other sheets in the tabs that I can't show you, but the summary page should be convincing enough. Froggy80's System Screenshot

@The_Big_Tuna77

I always get the secret sauce question. I can tell you the ingredients, but not the quantities of each ingredient if that makes sense.

1. Power Ranks of both teams
- minimum PR thresholds
- maximum opponent PR thresholds
2. Previous day and Next day opponent power ranks
3. Average quarters won - averaged over the last 7 matches
4. Matches with at least 1 quarter won - averaged over the last 7 matches
5. Fatigue factor (B2B games, 3rd game in 4 nights, 5th game in 7 nights)
6. Minimum 7 games played in the season before any picks
7. Max Odds for Home and Away teams

Yea... these are the 7 major ingredients that goes into the system play picks.

@Doc_Holliday

I will tell you very much in advance what the picks are (just like today). There are times when we'll get a long stretch (several days) of no picks. So, account for these things accordingly.

I truly hope not to get a loss, but it has happened twice in the 5 years of data. So, I guess it can happen. So yes, splitting in half makes sense in my opinion.

Let's go. He's confirmed.

Brooklyn Nets 1Q +1.5 (-110)

The odds are slightly worse due to the confirmation, but it's still a solid pick. BOL to all who tails.

I love AI; especially for this type of analysis.


Today's NBA matchup between the Brooklyn Nets and the Philadelphia 76ers features several notable aspects:

Ben Simmons' Return to Philadelphia: Ben Simmons, now with the Nets, returns to play at Philadelphia's Wells Fargo Center for the first time since February. His previous appearances were marked by significant fan reactions, and similar responses are anticipated today.

Injuries Impacting Key Players: The 76ers will be without Paul George, who is sidelined due to a bone bruise in his left knee. This injury is expected to keep him out for at least two games.

On the Nets' side, leading scorer Cam Thomas is probable to return after dealing with lower-back tightness, while center Nic Claxton is listed as questionable with a lower-back strain.

Team Dynamics and Recent Performance: The 76ers are experiencing internal challenges, including the recent leak of details from a team meeting, which has caused frustration among players.

They currently hold the league's worst record at 2-12. In contrast, the Nets, with a 6-9 record, are looking to build momentum after a narrow victory over the Charlotte Hornets.

These factors contribute to the unique context of today's game, making it a matchup to watch closely.