HERMES

SMU comes into this game on fire offensively. They are ranked 10th offensively in SP+ and their QB Mordecai has been lights out. Tulane is coming off an emotional loss to conference contender UCF. A game where they fought back hard to get back into it only to come up short. Why I bring this up is because due to this type of loss and a lack of time to prepare for the SMU explosive offense they will have a hard time to keep up. Tulane relies on a rock solid defense and I don't believe they will be up to the task tonight. UCF beats you on the ground and SMU beats you mostly through the air so completely different style to what they faced on Saturday.  SMU still has an outside shot at a conference title game bid so they will be motivated to get a W here. A lot of times mid week games are shoot outs as teams defensively don't have time to prepare. A shootout against SMU a top 10 offensive unit is no bueno for Tulane who ranks 52nd offensively in SP+. 

SMU just has wayy too much firepower offensively and I believe they will probably win outright. However I will take the 3.5 point gift.

SMU +3.5 

FLORIDA INTL +9.5 

Florida Atlantic short week of prep. Coaches have less familiarity with FIU. Florida Intl has been off since Oct 23rd. Rivalry game, expect Florida Intl to be motivated and keep it within the number. 

MINNESOTA +3

Iowa has zero business being favored here on the road. The experience of Minnesotas offense will lead them to victory. 

Good Luck 

FLORIDA INTL +9.5 

Florida Atlantic short week of prep. Coaches have less familiarity with FIU. Florida Intl has been off since Oct 23rd. Rivalry game, expect Florida Intl to be motivated and keep it within the number. 

MINNESOTA +3

Iowa has zero business being favored here on the road. The experience of Minnesotas offense will lead them to victory. 

Good Luck 

Doosan -165

Hanwha +102

LG -1.5 -103

4-1 

Vanderbilt +9

Tennessee is really really good. They are number 1 for a reason however there are some flaws that against Vandy at home that I believe will keep this game close. Tennessee offensively is dynamite no doubt about it. Vandy will struggle to keep them at bay. The Volunteers excel in all aspects offensively. They love pounding it inside with 55% of their points coming in the interior. Vanderbilt however does a pretty good job in defending both the perimeter and the paint. Where they have struggled though is cleaning up the glass. Tennessee will kill them with second chance opportunities. On the other side of the ball is where Vandy can take advantage of some Volunteer weaknesses. Vanderbilt will get to the line at will against this high pressure Tennessee defense. Saban Lee and Simi Shittu live on the line where Vandy is 7th in the nation and Tennessee is 224th in the nation in giving up free throws. Expect Vandy to slow down the game, live on the line keep Tennessee out of rythym just enough and keep this game close enough to cover the 9 points. The line is inflated here due to Tennessee pounding their last two opponents on the road. 

Other plays Im on........

Georgia +11 

Rhode Island -1.5 

Hey Guys its been a long time. Thought I'd check in and give you some winners to smash the books tonight.....

Ohio St +1.5 

Ohio St has flat out struggled. Alot of that has to do with facing tough competition and a bad underestimating ugly loss on the road against Rutgers. Tonight Ohio ST is coming into this game mad and wanting to right the ship at home after going 0-4 in their last 4 B1G games. Their competition Purdue is basically a one man show with Carson Edwards. The Boilermakers will go as far as he will take them. Here on the road though they will struggle. Purdue is a jump shooting team as they shoot the trey 46% of their total attempts. This is exactly what the doctor ordered for Ohio St. as they are good in defending inside out. The problem with Ohio St though through this slump has been their inabilty to limit fouls. Teams are getting to the line non-stop against them however against a jump shooting team like Purdue that will not be a problem. Purdue is 306th in getting to the line on the year. The Buckeyes will be able to contain Purdue offensively. On the other side of the ball Ohio St will do enough to get the W. Purdue in recent years has been a hard nosed defensive team but not so much this year. Opponents are shooting above D-1 average at 52% thats not honna get it done on the road against a decent shooting team in Ohio St. Guys I have Ohio St getting a much needed W here. 

Arkansas -7

Guys I know Arkansas has been terrible only covering 1 game in their last 10 and losers of their last 4. But Missouri is just too young and too reliant on jump shots to have a chance at Bud Walton. Arkanasas defensively has been solid except for the fact that they foul wayyy to much and cant clean up the glass for the life of them. Good thing Missouri is a jump shooting team to minimize the Razorbacks fouls. Missouri also turnovers the ball wayy too much not good when you face a classic Arkansas team who thrives off of turnovers. They are 67th in the nation in creating turnovers while Missouri is 290th in protecting the basketball. Expect less possessions for Missouri due to coughing up the ball. Arkansas on the other end are solid not great however they get to the free throw line a bunch and Missouri is a very undiscipline team that fouls wayy too much. Expect Arkansas to get some easy buckets inside with Gafford and to live at the free throw line tonight. Missouri is also coming into this contest feeling a little too excited after blowing out Tex AM and I believe they will be quickly humbled by Arkansas who is super hungry to get a W. 

Thank god for the second half play. Tech a little unlucky and Nova showed a defensive/gritty side I didn’t expect. 

A stat popped up they said Tech was 6/21 on layups! Missing several bunnies. No one could have ever predicted Villanova to offensive rebound like this. It’s insane. Just tough luck for Tech. They have forced Nova to miss shots like I expected but they have done a piss poor job cleaning up the glass. Just tough luck 

There is nothing that suggests that Nova will continue to offensively rebound like they did in the 1st half or get to the free throw like they did. Texas Tech will make a run and at least cover the 2nd half line. 

2nd half:

Texas Tech +1

There should not be any comparisons to West Virginia. Wvu cannot defend the perimeter at all. One of the worst in the nation. Tex Tech different animal on defense. 

Last writeup result: Kansas bad beat loser by 1 point after being up by 20. 

Today:

Texas Tech has had such a great year. It couldve been even better had they not had to deal with all the injuries to all their vets in Smith, Gray and Evans. Couldve been a BIG 12 championship year had they not had to deal with that. With that said though it has allowed some of the younger guys to develop and be able to contribute during the tourney. Texas Tech right now is playing the best basketball they have played all year. The Red Raiders gets it done with a ferocious pack line defense. Swarming opponents to shooting at a low effective FG% of 46.6% while forcing a boat load of turnovers. Offensively Texas Tech relies on Keenan Evans to create offense and boy does he ever. Tech hits shots with a good effective FG% of 52.4% however they are awesome at creating 2nd chance opportunities on the offensive glass and getting to the free throw line. This combination is very effective which leads to more opportunities to score. 

Villanova what can I say?! They are incredible offensively!! They usually take great care of the basketball while hitting shots with a nations best effective FG% of about 60%!!! That is unreal! They do the majority of their damage from beyond the arc jacking it up 47% of the time where they hit them at 40.5%! Positions 1-5 can hit 3's.  They are a nightmare for most teams. Defensively Nova does a great job of defending the perimeter holding opponents to 32% while staying disciplined and avoiding fouls. Everywhere else defensively Nova is average and can be particularily weak inside at times. However, when you have an awesome offense like that average defense is excellent defense. 

The Matchup 

Texas Tech like I said earlier is peaking at the right time. They are long, deep, relentless and battle tested having gone through the gauntlet of a schedule in the Big 12. This will be the toughest defensive opponent Villanova will face all year folks as Tech can defend the perimeter 1-5. Yes Nova will hit some shots, its inevitable but I truly expect the Red Raiders to make Villanova very uncomfortable with constant pressure while forcing contested 3's from beyond the arc. By the end of the game this will be tiring. On the offensive end for Texas Tech they will be able to get inside just enough against Nova's weaker interior defense and when they dont hit their close range shots expect a guy to be on the offensive glass to get a put back lay up or get fouled in the process. Texas Tech gets an offensive rebound 33% of the time. Due to these factors this game will be much closer than the linesmakers suggest. I believe this will be at most a 1 possesion game due to the matchups. Villanova will have their hands full for sure. I'm not saying they will not win but 6.5 is wayyyy too much. Therefore I'm on Texas Tech plus the points. 

Texas Tech +6.5

Thanks for Jinxing me guys haha...What a bad beat!

Good Luck MAC! Nice night last night!! Unfortunetely I'm on the opposite side with you on that Clemson play. I do like WVU quite a bit though. 

Best of Luck tonight!!! 

Its one thing to know a team is weak in the paint and its another thing to have the ability to expose a team in the paint. What I'm telling you is Clemson does not have that ability. Its simply not their identity. 

Do not compare this game to other games in the tourney. Each game is different with different matchups. Kansas is just a complete mismatch for Clemson.

Jayhawks roll tonight 

Yesterday: Loyola Chicago Winner 

Tonight: 

Kansas has had a real rollercoaster year for their standarrds. Everyone thought they were gonna have a down year when they started off losing several games on their home floor. However, since those losses Kansas has been pretty much dominant despite losing twice to OK ST. Kansas gets it done behind a fantastic offense. Drilling shots inside and outside with high efficiency. 40.3% from beyond the arc and 56.1% in the paint. They do this while taking great care of the ball. On the defensive side they have been just average however their strength is defending the perimeter holding oponents to just 33% from 3. A huge problem for them though has been cleaning up the glass. They are among the nation's worst in defensive rebounding.

Clemson's season has been great despite losing probably their best player and leader in Donte Grantham. The Tigers are extremely stingy on D with ElijaH Thomas defending the paint. They rebound very well and dont commit many fouls as they are well disciplined. The one hole in their defense though is defending the perimeter. Teams hit for 37% against them from outside in conference play. Offensively they live and die by the 3. They are not efficient inside and they do not crash the offensive glass well. They are a one shot and out offense. 

The Matchup: 

Kansas bombs away from deep 41% of the time connecting like I said earlier at 40%. Clemson's hole on defense is their perimeter D. This is not a good recipe for success for Clemson. The Jayhawks can also mix it inside and I do not see them turning over the ball as Clemson does not force many turnovers. This will lead to many full possesion opportunites to score which Kansas does like a well oiled machine. On the other end Clemson shoots the three ball 40% of the time connecting at 37% thats great but Kansas protects the perimeter quite well. The Tigers inside the arc shot only 46% in conference play so I do not believe they will be able to take advantage of Kansas' weakness in protecting the paint. Ultimately the Jayhawks are just wayy too efficient offensively and Clemson does not have the ability offensively to keep up. This should lead to Kansas easily winning this one and covering the 5. Thats why I will be on rock chalk minus the points. 

KANSAS -5

Thanks guys! See you tomorrow

Winner winner chicken dinner!