HooAlum

@HooAlum

 Made a mathematical mistake on sharp analysis for Michigan St-Indiana.  Sharp were heavy on Michigan St so that was not a 1 unit loss but a 5 unit loss.  Navy-Rice also came in as evidenced by Mr. Everson and unfortunately as opposed to the other service academy game did not deliver.

Regardless if it is good news or bad news I want to report so you can take the info and apply it,on.  Nonetheless, great week for sharp analysis overall.

@HooAlum

 A few notes on games that popped.  A bit of a mixed bad with

Air Force 8 units (very good)

Arkansas 1 unit (bad)

Michigan St 1 unit (bad)

Iowa St 1 unit (Bad)

Arizona St (5 units) (very good)

Houston 4 units (good)

Wisconsin 2 units (looking bad)

South Carolina 1 unit (good)

Tennessee 7 units (Unknown)

Baylor 4 units (looking bad)

@HooAlum

 couple of notes. 

as i mentioned Air Force army made it thanks to mr everson and lopsided wagering went away in michigan oregon. unfortunately the Auburn vandy game remained a big loser 

@HooAlum

 I might not be near a computer for the noon runup and just have my phone during the day so wanted to get out a notice this morning.  That means I will miss Patrick Everson's tweet storm later this morning.  I fully endorse it as some info that I use here is parsed from it - particularly the handle qualifiers so a few games may pop up out of nowhere near kickoff but if they do you can almost bet they came from that source which you guys can see publicly - I am watching to see if the Army-AFA handle gets mentioned in particular as it is a pretty strong Air Force play at present.  I also want to point out that many of the lopsided tells often go away close to gametime and even over night a few did.  That is a good thing as that indicator has been pretty poor this season.  Also, watch line movement.  Everyone here can see it and if it occurs the information that I give here changes as it is an accelerant on some of these indicators.  Auburn Vandy, whose unit number makes me very nervous, is a prime suspect in having the unit number come down.  On Michigan, the lopsided number is on a knife's edge as well as the spread.  Minnesota and SMU stand on firmer ground but still shop on those lines as 3 and 7 are key numbers.  With that all said, here is Saturday at present.

Syracuse (2 units) - lopsided wagering on road favorite with high handle outweighs sharp

Miami (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite with reverse movement

Minnesota (9 units) - classic SKS, low ticket and handle favorite strong sharp signal

Penn State (1 unit) - line movement, high handle road favorite, reverse movement outweighs SKS

Auburn (13 units) - line movement, low ticket and handle favorite with lopsided wagering, reverse movement and strong sharp signal

Florida (4 units) - line movement and steam

Michigan (8 units) - lopsided wagering (this imposed to go away), reverse movement (ditto), over/under squeeze, high handle road favorite with lopsided wagering

Louisville-Clemson (No Bet) - no indicators

Washington-Southern Cal (No Bet) - line movement balanced by low handle favorite

South Carolina (1 unit) - high handle road favorite

Baylor (4 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal

SMU (8 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, SKS and sharp signal

@HooAlum

 Friday Night Update as this promises to be a lower volume but possibly higher wagering weekend.  

Boise St (1 unit) - Line movement (I know the game has started but line not overtaken yet on this small play)

Syracuse (4 units) - lopsided wagering on road favorite with high handle outweighs sharp

Miami (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite with lopsided wagering

Minnesota (9 units) - classic SKS, low ticket and handle favorite strong sharp signal

Penn State (1 unit) - line movement, high handle road favorite, reverse movement outweighs SKS

Auburn (13 units) - this one seems inflated as the tells are working together to deliver the high unit number, line movement, low ticket and handle favorite with lopsided wagering, reverse movement and strong sharp signal

Florida (4 units) - line movement and steam

Michigan (8 units) - I am very worried about this one because I honestly think Michigan stinks and 2 TDs does not seem large enough - lopsided wagering, reverse movement, over/under squeeze, high handle road favroite with lopsided wagering

Louisville-Clemson (No Bet) - no indicators

Washington (4 units) - line movement, road favroite with high handle, reverse movement, 

South Carolina (5 units) - lopsided wagering with high handle road favorite

Baylor (4 units) - low ticket and handle favroite with lopsided wagering outweighs sharp signal

SMU (7 units) - low ticket and handle favroite, SKS and sharp signal

@HooAlum

 Well, despite losing the biggest play of the season, it was a winnign week thanks to winning the third biggest play of the season and several very strong plays, particularly late.  Still not where the indicators need to be at this stage but at least they are bringing in a modest profit.

WEEKLY RECORD: 9-8

WEEKLY REVENUE: 84.6 units on 77.5 units

SEASON RECORD: 77-58

SEASON REVENUE: 488.3 unit on 475 wagered (2.80% profit)

********

Indicator Performance

Sharp Signal: 62.25%

Reverse Movement 61.9%

Over/Under Squeeze: 60%

Low Ticket favorite: 56.9%

Steam: 56.25

SKS: 55.56%

Early Start for Western Team: 50%

Line Movement: 50%

Low Handle Favorite: 46.03%

Bye Week Return: 44.19%

High Handle Road Favorite: 43.59%

Lopsided Wagering 43.21%

***********

Early Preview Week 10

Miami (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering

Penn St-Ohio St (No Bet) - conflicting indicators lopsided wagering and high handle road favorite balanced by SKS

Georgia (2 units) - sharp signal

Michigan (2 units) - lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze

Louisville (1 unit) - lopsided wagering outweighs sharp signal

SMU (8 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering and SKS

UCF was a killer but Bama + Oregon = that loss so still surviving and the evening will determine the outcome of the week as a whole.  (Response to the above question, these are spread plays)

Florida St-Miami (No Bet) - sharp signal balances line movement

Michigan (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement

Texas A&M (5 units) - low ticketing handle  favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp signals and SKS outweighs line movement

Wisconsin-Penn State (No bet) -road favorite with high handle balances bye week return

Kentucky (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement

Duke (5 units) -  high handle on road favorite, reverse movement and sharp signal

Kansas (2 units) - sharp signal

CHANGE: Cincinnati (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

@HooAlum

Not a lot of change in the afternoon update. 

UCF (20 units) - largest play of the year, line and reverse movement, steam, strong sharp signal, low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering, SKS

Alabama (12.5 units) - line movement, steam, low ticket and handle favorite and strong sharp signal

Oregon (6 units) reverse movement, low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal

Texas (1 unit) - low ticket favorite, sharp signal outweighs line movement

@HooAlum

Here is Saturday.  the big plays are still big plays.  This is decision weekend.  Lot of choices.

Notre Dame (6 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal

Washington (4 units) - line movement, lopsided wagering, sharp signal, reverse movement and bye week outweigh west coast early start

CHANGE: Oklahoma (3 units) - steam, over/under squeeze and sharp signal outweighs low handle favorite and bye week return

Ohio State (1 unit) -  sharp signal, and bye week return out weighs over/under squeeze

Mississippi St (1 units) - lopsided wagering outweighs sharp signal

UCF (20 units!!) - largest play of the year, line and reverse movement, steam, strong sharp signal, low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering, SKS

Alabama (10.5 units) - line movement, steam, low ticket favorite and strong sharp signal

Oregon (6 units) reverse movement, low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal

NEW GAME: Texas (2 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp signal outweighs line movement

Florida St (1 unit) - sharp signal outweighs low handle favorite

Michigan (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement

Texas A&M (6 units) - low ticketing handle  favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp signals and SKS outweighs line movement

Wisconsin (3 units) - lopsided wagering on road favorite with high handle outweighs sharp signal

NEW GAME: Kentucky (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement

Duke (5 units) -  high handle on road favorite, reverse movement and sharp signal

Kansas (4 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp signal

CHANGE: Cincinnati-Colorado (No Bet) - lopsided wagering balanced with line movement.

@HooAlum

 Well, this is the go big or go home week and will likely determine the season's profits with the high number of high unit games as well as the absolute number of games.  I knew UCF-BYU was a big one but was waiting on the handle which is now there

Notre Dame (4 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal

NEW GAME: Washington (5 units) - line movement, lopsided wagering, heavy sharp signal, reverse movement and bye week retain out west coast early start

Ole Miss (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite and bye week return outweighs steam, over/under squeeze and sharp signal

Ohio State (2 units) -  low ticket favorite, sharp signal, and bye week return out weighs over/under squeeze

NEW GAME: Mississippi St (2 units) - lopsided wagering

NEW GAME:UCF (17 units!!) - line and reverse movement, steam, sharp signal, low ticket and handle favroite, lopsided wagering, SKS

Alabama (11.5 units!!!!) - line movement, steam, low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal

Oregon (4 units) low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal

CHANGE: Florida St (3 units) - lopsided wagering

Michigan (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, sharp signal outweighs line movement

Texas A&M (6 units) - low ticketing handle  favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp signals and SKS outweighs line movement

Wisconsin (4 units) - lopsided wagering on road favorite with high handle

NEW GAME: Duke (6 units) - lopsided wagering, high handle on road favorite, reverse movement and sharp signal

NEW GAME: Kansas (5 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp signal

NEW GAME: Cincinnati (3 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp signal outweighs line movement.

@HooAlum

Going to get tonight in now and will send another update for Saturday in the next half hour

No bet occurred on BC-Louisville as it did make the handle level (balance between sharp and low handle)

UNLV (4 units) - sharp signal, high handle, lopsided wagering outweighs bye week return

Rutgers-Southern Cal (Not Bet) - no indicators shown

@HooAlum

 way too late to be of use (sorry) but as a note Pitt Cuse got the handle and Pitt had low ticket and handle as a favroite which usually means a 3 unit play.

@HooAlum

Well, that was weird and kind of awful as a week.  As mentioned went out to tremendous undefeated start only to lose EVERY night game.  As arsult the W-L was even and the money (the more important metric) was a loss.   Lot of the indicators have taken a dip.

WEEKLY RECORD: 7-7

WEEKLY REVENUE: 31.5 on 41.5 units wagered

SEASON RECORD: 68-50

SEASON REVENUE: 403.7 units on 397.5 wagered (1.56% profit)

INDICATOR PERFORMANCE

Reverse Movement: 64.71%

Sharp Signals: 61.72%

SKS: 60%

Over/Under Squeeze: 56.52%

Low Bet Ticket Favorite: 56%

Steam: 53.85%

Line Movement: 51.72%

Bye Week Return: 47.22%

Lopsided Wagering 47.06%

Low Handle Favorite: 44.44%

**********************************

Early Week 9 analysis

UNLV (3 units) - lopsided wagering, high lopsided handle road favorite outweighs sharp signal

Notre Dame (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

Ole Miss (2 units) - low handle favorite and bye week return

Ohio State (2 units) -  low handle favorite and bye week return

Alabama (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

Oregon (3 units) low ticket and handle favorite

Florida St-Miami (No bet) - No indicators

Michigan (1 unit) - sharp signal

Texas A&M (7 units) - low ticket favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp signals and SKS

Wisconsin (4 units) - lopsided wagering on road favorite with high handle

@HooAlum

Well, looking like a losing week as all 3 games tonight are down.  

Last gasp late night play is Utah with low ticket favorite and handle that is lopsided outweighing line movement and bye week return but that will not be enough to bring things to even assuming the 3 night games lose.  That will leave us barely up for the season.  

@HooAlum

 Wow so much for a good day.  The afternoon has been a killing zone centered in Illinois over Michigan.  Need a good finish and Kentucky is where to go.

Arkansas-LSU (No Bet)  - low ticket favorite and sharp signal balances away favorite with high handle and bye week return.  

CHANGE: Iowa State (2 units) - sharp signal and low handle favorite

West Virginia-Kansas St (No Bet) - away favorite with high handle balanced with sharp signal 

Texas (2 units) - line movement and sharp signal

Kentucky (8 units) - line movement, low ticket and handle favorite and reverse movement 

@HooAlum

 Whoa but I backdoor ECU out of nothing 2 point conversion GOOD! so that will earn . . . .1 unit.  I still do not like the trade even if it means an undefeated is in place.

@HooAlum

 and like that, a game goes from a likely win to a push.  Stupid Auburn

Good initial start with ECU looking like the only loser and that wa mere 1 unit.  Of course pulling back South Carolina and Indiana from 4 units to 2 units stings. (But Miami-Louisville is still a toss up so safe not to have the larger 3 unit play and just have the push - though Louisville could still make me regret that report even more)

Alabama-Tennessee (No bet) -   lopsided wagering and road favorite with a majority handle outweighs string sharp signal

CHANGE Georgia Tech (1/2 unit) lopsided wagering majority handle and road favorite outweighs steam and line movement (based on Haynes King injury clearly)

Michigan (6 unit) -  line movement, SKS and bye week return outweighs road favorite with a majority handle

Maryland (3 units) - sharp signal  lopsided wagering on road favorite with high handle (watch reverse movement here)

Arizona (4 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal

Texas A&M (3 units) - line movement and steam outweighs sharp signal and away favorite with high handle, (line going up grab under 3 TDs at FanDuel or MGM)

@HooAlum

Reasonable start to the day depending on Auburn hanging on but really wish I had not pulled back on the unit amounts as Indiana and South Carolina look like the original 4 unit play calls not the 2 units they presently are. Of course Miami's late surge may have saved me win that one.  Only loss looks like East Crolina's 1 unit play at +17.5.  Still a shot but not a big payout if it does come.  This afternoon is really Wolverines.  Watch the line flow in Maryland-Southern Cal as it is on the edge of reverse movement

Tennessee-Alabama (No Bet) -   lopsided wagering and road favorite with a majority handle glances strong sharp signal

Georgia Tech (1/2 unit) lopsided wagering majority handle and road favorite outweighs steam and line movement (based on Haynes King injury clearly)

Michigan (6 units) -  line movement, low ticket favorite, SKS and bye week return outweighs road favorite with a majority handle

Maryland (3 units) - sharp signal  lopsided wagering on road favorite with high handle

Arizona (4 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal

Texas A&M (3 units) - line movement and steam outweighs sharp signal and away favorite with high handle (this could increase the way the line is headed, grab before it is 3 tocuhdowns)

@HooAlum

 Auburn reverse movement remains so that is still the call.  Lopsided wagering goes away I nLouisville, South Carolina is boiling up bets to where now IT is lopsided against OU pulling that game back, Indiana has handle above 50% now so that reduces but it still the call.  Is the East Carolina movement going to cut against It?  If you think it is at 17.5 it does if it is at 17 it does not (but you can grab 17.5 at a lot of places)