HooAlum

@HooAlum

 Sharps are starting to make their call on the Buckeyes.  Now a 7 unit play with low handle favroite, SKS and sharp signal

@HooAlum

 The low ticket count went away on Ohio State but it still remains a solid 6 unit play due to low handle favorite, sharp signal and SKS.

@HooAlum

 A little sharp action has come in on the Buckeyes as the spread remains a little over a touchdown.  That means we remain with a pretty strong Buckeye play at present:

Ohio State (8 units) - Strong SKS, low ticket and handle favorite, sharp signal

@HooAlum

 Very early a week out from Championship Monday and the Buckeyes are an early heavy call bu the line movement that is starting to go to the Irish makes it interesting and not yet a done deal.

Ohio State (7 units) - Strong SKS, low ticket and handle favorite

@HooAlum

 Well, that was a killer last night as I really do think PSU was the better team and should have won.  Oh well.  Yesterday when I posted nothing changed within 20 minutes we finally saw some movement that had a huge impact (too bad it turned a 2 unit Irish play to a 6 unit Penn State play thus an 8 unit negative swing).  Same for tonight as now indicators have popped so the 3 unit SKS play is all there is.  Unlike last night the SKS will not reverse and likely stay.  In addition, for line movement to matter it needs to grow to outside the toggle zone of 5.5-6.5.  If you want to pull the trigger for the buckeyes now, FanDuel sits now at 5.5 while everyone else is at 6.  I guess if the overall spread drop there is a chance for reverse movement in the horns favor but we need to monitor all the factors when that occurs and besides FanDuel nobody else is showing that.

@HooAlum

 Well, that was a big development.  I think the big fish have weighed in on the Nitty Lions.

Line just jumped the fence.  That swings all sorts of things to Penn State.  Line movement, steam, favorite under 50% ticket count and the SKS disappears.  It is now a 6 unit play for PSU.  I will monitor but maybe you can catch a few books napping (MGM PSU +1, Caesars and ESPNBet at -1.  Everyone else steamed their way to PSU (-1.5).

@HooAlum

 Still no change.  Call tonight is Notre Dame 2 units.  We could se line movement toward Penn State though as a few books have it down to 1 so watch that angle.  If going with teh Irish I would grab the -1 at MGM, Caesars and ESPNBet

@HooAlum

 I'd love to give new numbers since it is gamely for one of the semis but for now both have stayed constant.  I am sure more helpful info will come before game time so watch line moves just in case but sort of quiet right now.

Notre Dame (2 units) - SKS

Ohio State (3 units) - strong SKS

@HooAlum

 We are down to the CFP semifinals and not a lot of action in terms of indicators yet.  But it is a common refrain on both as the favorites in each game are lower ranked (and Ohio State by more than a FG).  That. means SKS is the sole indicator.  It is a good one as SKS is 61.82% this season and 2-1 in bowl season, including 2-0 in the playoffs (ironically the 2 wins were last round with Notre Dame and Ohio State).  I am sure we will see some more action whether it is sharp signals or line movement but for now this is what we got.

Notre Dame (2 units) - SKS

Ohio State (3 units) - strong SKS

@HooAlum

 Last bowl game of the year (btw sloppy job yesterday on sharp action in the Minnesota game as it was apparent but was on my phone and not my computer so missed a key numbers update on the handle.  It was only a single unit but still not good reporting by me.  The handle also reached the level I the early game but there was sharp signal.

Buffalo (1 unit) - line movement

@HooAlum

 Consensus spread hit double digits about 20 minutes ago making qa VPI play as a large underdog balance line movement and as a result thew game tonight is "no bet."

@HooAlum

 Well, the low ticket and handle went away for this afternoon’s game and new line movement came in. What does all this mean?  No bet as the line movement is canceled out by the heavy bowl underdog. 

tonight’s game is still Minnesota 1 unit due to line movement. A little more movement to the hopers and it will bump up to a 2 unit play. 

@HooAlum

after a disastrous New Year's Eve afternoon going 1-4 and losing an 8 and 11 unit game, things started to improve that night with Penn State taking 5 units and since that time a 4-1 record with the one loss only a single unit and the wins being 5, 6, 9 and 4.5.  As a result now things have changed overall for the record and revenue

BOWL/PLAYOFF RECORD: 18-16 (Playoffs 6-1)

SEASON RECORD: 158-113

BOWL/PLAYOFF REVENUE: 132.1 units on 123 wagered (7.4% profit)

SEASON REVENUE: 1017.6 on 939 wagered (8.37% profit)

**

INDICATOR PERFORMANCE

Bowl Snub: 100% (2-0)

Bowl G5 v P5: 71.43%

Sharp Signal: 65.04%/Bowl (62.5%)

SKS: 61.22%/Bowl (66.7%)

Over/Under Squeeze: 58.97%/Bowl (50%)

Reverse Movement: 57.50%/Bowl (66.67%)

Steam: 56.67%/Bowl (45.45%) 

Low Bet Favorite: 54.64%/Bowl (66.67%)

Line  Movement: 53.7%/Bowl (43.48%)

Large Bowl Underdog: 42.86%

Style Points: 50%/N/A

Bye Week Return: 50%/N/A

Low Handle Favorite: 48.51%/Bowl (50%)

Lopsided Wagering: 48.08%/Bowl (0%=0-4)

**

REMAINING BOWL GAMES

Texas State (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs double digit underdog

Minnesota (1 unit) - line movement

Buffalo (3 units) - line movement and low ticket underdog

@BigPell

 yep, we had steam and a fence jump 2 days ago that also led to an SKS (lower ranked team favored over higher ranked team).  I did give lead time with a post about it noon January 1.  Sorry if you did not see it before wagering.

@HooAlum

 As I suspected, the line toggled back to 17.5 eliminating the reverse movement pushing the play to Ole Miss 4.5 units.  You can still greet 17 at a number of books.

@HooAlum

Today's action

Notre Dame (9 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, steam,, line movement, SKS outweighs sharp signal

Ole Miss (2.5 units) - line movement, steam, sharp signal outweighs lopsided wagering and heavy bowl underdog and large reverse movement.  (will monitor this in particular as it came in about 20 minutes ago, it. could easily toggle and go away.  Watch if the line drop further from 17.

@HooAlum

 Ole Miss (5.5 units) - line movement, steam, sharp signal outweighs  lopsided wagering and heavy bowl underdog

Texas State (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite,\outweighs heavy bowl underdog

Minnesota (1 unit) - line movement

Buffalo (1 unit) - low ticket favorite

PLAYOFFS

Notre Dame (9 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, steam,, line movement, SKS outweighs sharp signal

NEW: Ohio State (3 units) - SKS

@HooAlum

 Late surges in the line have mixed things up for 2 of 3 today.  Texas now back to 13.5 and with that the pick.  Notre Dame jumps the fence and now the favorite in teh consensus (but can still get +1.5 at Fan Duel and pick'em at Caesars)

CHANGE: Texas (1 unit) - sharp signal

Ohio State (6 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and SKS, sharp signal

CHANGE: Notre Dame (7 units) - line movement, steam, low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp signal

@HooAlum

Yes, bad day.  If Washington gets that 2 point conversion it at least is almost break even today and a profit overall as a push in that game was needed but no dice.  Penn State and Illinois salvaged from a complete disaster with 2 nice wins.  Feel free to fade and upon request here is a comprehensive tell update.

Arizona St (3 units) - line movement and reverse movement 

Ohio State (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and SKS

Georgia (3 units) - sharp signal

Performance to date

Overall Bowl Record: 15-15

Overall Season record: 155-112

Bowl Revenue: 95 units on 102.5 wagered (loss of 7.32%)

Season Revenue: 980.5 units on 918.5 wagered (profit of 6.75%)

Indicator Performance Season/Bowl

Bowl Snub: 100%

Bowl G5 v P5: 66.67%

Sharp Signal: 65.04%/Bowl (65%)

SKS: 61.22%/Bowl (0% = 0-1)

Over/Under Squeeze: 58.97%/Bowl (50%)

Reverse Movement: 57.50%/Bowl (66.67%)

Steam: 56.67%/Bowl (50%) 

Low Bet Favorite: 54.64%/Bowl (60%)

Line  Movement: 53.7%/Bowl (38.01%)

Large Bowl Underdog: 50%

Style Points: 50%/N/A

Bye Week Return: 50%/N/A

Low Handle Favorite: 48.51%/Bowl (37.5%)

Lopsided Wagering: 48.08%/Bowl (0%)

well, this day is going down very poorly needless to say. wow!  

need a major washington comeback to salvage.