HooAlum

@HooAlum

 Another strong week easily making this the best W-L we have seen (just as a note the success in the last 3 weeks came after a regression analysis - needless to say I will stick with that formula for now).  Revenue not quite as strong as some big plays have not come home but overall  still a healthy profit.

WEEKLY RECORD: 12-4

WEEKLY REVENUE: 73.2 units on 54.5 wagered

SEASON RECORD: 117-72 (61.90%)

SEASON REVENUE: 755.3 units on 681 wagered (10.91% profit)

***********

Indicator Performance

SKS: 70.27%

Sharp Signal: 65.73%

Style Points: 60%

Low Bet Favorite: 58.11%

Reverse Movement: 57.89%

Over/Under Squeeze: 57.58%

Steam: 56.52%

Line Movement: 55.68%

West Coast Early Start: 50%

Lowe Handle Favorite: 49.37%

Bye Week Return: 48.98%

Lopsided Wagering: 48.04%

*********

Early Preview for Week 13

Georgia Tech(3 units)  - low ticket and handle favroite

Virginia (1 unit) - high handle on road favorite

Ohio State (8 units) - line movement, low ticket and handle favorite, reverse movement

Colorado (1 unit) - low ticket favorite and sharp signal outweighs high handle on road favorite

Penn State (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs over/under squeeze

Arizona State (5 units) - SKS low ticket and handle favorite

Texas (6 units) - lopsided wagering, low ticketing handle favorite, sharp signal and style points out weighs over under squeeze

Pittsburgh-Louisville (No bet) - no indicators

Notre Dame (4 units) - lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle favorite, style points out weighs over/under squeeze

Auburn (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

Alabama (1 unit) - sharp signal outweighs high handle road favorite (especially when that high handle comes from sharps)

Duke (2 units) - lopsided wagering, high handle on road favorite

UCLA (2 units) - lopsided wagering, high handle on road favorite

@HooAlum

Morning Update

Arkansas (4 unit): line movement, sharp signal and bye week return

Navy (1 unit) - Low handle favorite

CHANGE: Pitt (1 unit) - high handle road favorite

Colorado (6.5 units): line movement, steam, and sharp signal

Michigan State (6 units): Lopsided wagering, reverse movement and sharp signal

NEW GAME: Penn State (2 units): line movement, sharp signal, style play outweighs over/under squeeze

Louisville (3 unit): line movement, low ticket and sharp signal outweighs high handle favorite

NEW GAME: Virginia (1 unit): steam, sharp signal and over/under squeeze outweighs low ticket and handle favorite and style play

Nebraska (3 units): line movement and steam reverse movement outweighs low ticket and handle favorite 

Arizona State (2 units): steam outweighs bye week return

San Jose State (4 units): very heavy sharp signals outweigh low handle favorite

Georgia (8 units): low ticket and handle favorite, sharp signal, SKS

Wisconsin (6 units): lopsided wagering on road favorite, reverse movement, sharp signal and bye week return

CHANGE: Kansas (6 units): line movement, sharp signal, and SKS

@HooAlum

Friday Night Update.  Will give another tomorrow morning.

CHANGE: Washington (1 unit): Sharp Signal

Arizona (2 units): low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement

Arkansas (3 unit): line movement, sharp signal and bye week return outweighs low handle favorite

Navy-Tulane (No Bet) - No indicators

Clemson (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite

Colorado (5.5 units): line movement and steam

Michigan State (5 units): Lopsided wagering, reverse movement and sharp signal

CHANGE: Louisville (3 unit): low ticket and handle favorite

CHANGE: Nebraska (1 unit): line movement and steam outweighs low ticket and handle favorite 

NEW GAME: Arizona State (4 units): steam, reverse movement outweighs bye week return

CHANGE: San Jose State (1 unit): heavy sharp signals outweigh low handle favorite

Georgia (3 units): low ticket and handle favorite

Wisconsin (6 units): lopsided wagering on road favorite, reverse movement, sharp signal and bye week return

Kansas-BYU (No Bet): line movement and sharp signal balanced by low ticket and handle favorite

@HooAlum

 Easily won loss one of the best week's ever.  However, one of the biggest plays failed after Oklahoma was looking good they could not do the job.  It follows a trend this season of the very biggest play of the week failing but all the others coming in well.  Still. A very strong week.

WEEKLY RECORD: 14-4

SEASON RECORD: 105-68

WEEKLY REVENUE: 87.4 units on 69.5 wagered

SEASON REVENUE: 682.1 units on 626.5 wagered (8.87% profit)

*************

INDICATOR PERFORMANCE

Style Points: 66.67% (2-1 - I start to apply this only after the CFP rankings come out)

Sharp Signal: 66.49%

SKS: 65.63%

Reverse Movement: 60%

Over/Under Squeeze: 58.06%

Low Bet Favorite: 57.97%

Steam: 55.56%

Line Movement: 55.56%

West Coast Early Start: 50%

Lopsided Wagering: 48%

Bye Week Return: 47.83%

Low Handle Favorite: 46.58%

*********

Early Weekly Game Report

UCLA (1 unit): lopsided wagering

Arizona (1 unit): sharp signal

Arkansas (1 unit): bye week return

Navy-Tulane (No Bet) - Low ticket handle balanced by sharp signal

Clemson (1 unit) - sharp signal

Colorado (1 unit): low handle favorite 

Michigan State (3 units): Lopsided wagering and sharp signal

Stanford-Louisville (No bet): No indicators

Southern Cal (1 unit): low handle favorite

Boise State (1 unit): low handle favorite

Georgia (1 unit): sharp signal

Wisconsin (2 units): lopsided wagering on road favorite  and bye week return

Kansas-BYU (No Bet): No indicators

@HooAlum

 Won't be able to update during the day.  Big new add  as I anticipate the handle to make it in Missouri-Oklahoma.  Watch line movement on all these games.  This week has more reverse movement than any other this season.  Remember if the betting stabilizes or it reverses those tells go away.  As always late line movement will inevitably change these numbers.

Texas (5 units): low ticket favorite, bye week Return, heavy sharp signal and style points outweigh over/under squeeze

West Virginia (5 units): lopsided wagering, reverse movement and sharp signal

Georgia Tech (8 units) - line movement, lopsided wagering, reverse movement and strong sharp signal

Kansas (7 units) - line movement, lopsided wagering, reverse movement, sharp signal

Ole Miss (3 units): line movement, lopsided wagering on road favorite

CHANGE: Michigan (2 unit): reverse movement and over/under squeeze outweighs harp signal

Virginia Tech (3 units) - lopsided wagering with road favorite, road favorite with high handle outweighs sharp signal

Colorado (1 unit): sharp signal and bye week return outweighs lopsided wagering & road favorite with high handle

South Carolina (2 units): line movement, sharp signal and SKS outweighs majority handle on favorite and high handle on road favorite

TCU (2 units): lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle on the favorite outweighs reverse movement

Maryland (3 units): line movement, reverse movement

Florida St-Notre Dame (No bet)bye week return and style points balanced by heavy over/under squeeze

LSU (3 units): high handle road favorite, reverse movement

Oklahoma (15.5 units): line movement, steam=, low ticket and handle favorite, reverse movement, SKS

Virginia (2 units): sharp signal

Washington (2 units): sharp signal

Utah (4 units) - lopsided wagering and high handle on road favorite reverse movement

@HooAlum

 Nice small wins to start the weekend.  Wish it was a higher bet but always better top start with low wins than low bet losers.  No, the sharp action that was going to raise to UCLA number did not arrive so it remained at 1 unit.  Here is tomorrow's slate:

Texas (5 units): low ticket favorite, bye week Return, heavy sharp signal and style points outweigh over/under squeeze

West Virginia (5 units): lopsided wagering, reverse movement and sharp signal

NEW GAME: Georgia Tech (8 units) - line movement, lopsided wagering, reverse movement and strong sharp signal

NEW GAME: Kansas (7 units) - line movement, lopsided wagering, reverse movement, sharp signal

Ole Miss (3 units): line movement, lopsided wagering on road favorite

Michigan-Indiana (No Bet): line movement, lopsided wagering on road favorite

NEW GAME: Virginia Tech (1 unit) - lopsided wagering with road favorite, road favorite with high handle outweighs sharp signal

Colorado (1 unit): sharp signal and bye week return outweighs lopsided wagering & road favorite with high handle

South Carolina (2 units): line movement, sharp signal and SKS outweighs majority handle on favorite and high handle on road favorite

NEW GAME: TCU (2 units): lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle on the favorite outweighs reverse movement

NEW GAME: Maryland (3 units): line movement, reverse movement

Florida St-Notre Dame (No bet)bye week return and style points balanced by heavy over/under squeeze

CHANGE LSU (3 units): high handle road favorite, reverse movement

NEW GAME: Virginia (1 unit): sharp signal

NEW GAME Washington (2 units): sharp signal

Utah (4 units) - lopsided wagering and high handle on road favorite reverse movement outweighs sharp signal

Updating tonight pre game time.  Nothing special except a modest Pac-12 revenge

Cal (1 unit) - sharp signal outweighs high handle road favorite

UCLA (1 unit) - high handle road favorite and on the edge of sharp signal on the Bruins that could bump up slightly

@HooAlum

Strong week that puts us back on a better profitability pace

WEEKLY RECORD: 13-7

WEEKLY REVENUE: 104.5 units on 82 wagered

SEASON  RECORD: 91-64

SEASON REVENUE: 594.7 units on 557 wagered (6.77% profit)

***********************

INDICATOR 2024 PERFORMANCE

SKS: 70.37%

Sharp Signal: 63.95%

Steam: 58.82%

Reverse Movement: 57.69%

Low Bet Favorite: 57.58%

Line Movement: 52.7%

Early West Coast Start: 50%

Low Handle Favorite: 46.48%

Lopsided Wagering: 45.83%

Bye Week Return: 44.19%

*************

Initial games for the week

California (2 units): low ticket and handle favorite outweighs lopsided wagering on the road favorite

UCLA-Iowa (No Bet): low handle favorite balanced by sharp signal

Texas (4 units): low ticket and handle favorite and bye week Return and style points outweigh over/under squeeze

West Virginia (1 unit): lopsided wagering

Ole Miss (1 unit): lopsided wagering

Michigan-Indiana (No Bet): lopsided wagering balanced by sharp signal

Colorado (1 unit): sharp signal and bye week return outweighs lopsided wagering & road favorite with high handle

South Carolina (4 units): sharp signal and SKS outweighs majority handle on favorite

Notre Dame (2 units) sharp signal, bye week return and style points outweigh over/under squeeze

Alabama (2 units): sharp signal outweighs high handle road favorite

Utah (1 unit) - lopsided wagering and high handle on road favorite

@HooAlum

 Made a mathematical mistake on sharp analysis for Michigan St-Indiana.  Sharp were heavy on Michigan St so that was not a 1 unit loss but a 5 unit loss.  Navy-Rice also came in as evidenced by Mr. Everson and unfortunately as opposed to the other service academy game did not deliver.

Regardless if it is good news or bad news I want to report so you can take the info and apply it,on.  Nonetheless, great week for sharp analysis overall.

@HooAlum

 A few notes on games that popped.  A bit of a mixed bad with

Air Force 8 units (very good)

Arkansas 1 unit (bad)

Michigan St 1 unit (bad)

Iowa St 1 unit (Bad)

Arizona St (5 units) (very good)

Houston 4 units (good)

Wisconsin 2 units (looking bad)

South Carolina 1 unit (good)

Tennessee 7 units (Unknown)

Baylor 4 units (looking bad)

@HooAlum

 couple of notes. 

as i mentioned Air Force army made it thanks to mr everson and lopsided wagering went away in michigan oregon. unfortunately the Auburn vandy game remained a big loser 

@HooAlum

 I might not be near a computer for the noon runup and just have my phone during the day so wanted to get out a notice this morning.  That means I will miss Patrick Everson's tweet storm later this morning.  I fully endorse it as some info that I use here is parsed from it - particularly the handle qualifiers so a few games may pop up out of nowhere near kickoff but if they do you can almost bet they came from that source which you guys can see publicly - I am watching to see if the Army-AFA handle gets mentioned in particular as it is a pretty strong Air Force play at present.  I also want to point out that many of the lopsided tells often go away close to gametime and even over night a few did.  That is a good thing as that indicator has been pretty poor this season.  Also, watch line movement.  Everyone here can see it and if it occurs the information that I give here changes as it is an accelerant on some of these indicators.  Auburn Vandy, whose unit number makes me very nervous, is a prime suspect in having the unit number come down.  On Michigan, the lopsided number is on a knife's edge as well as the spread.  Minnesota and SMU stand on firmer ground but still shop on those lines as 3 and 7 are key numbers.  With that all said, here is Saturday at present.

Syracuse (2 units) - lopsided wagering on road favorite with high handle outweighs sharp

Miami (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite with reverse movement

Minnesota (9 units) - classic SKS, low ticket and handle favorite strong sharp signal

Penn State (1 unit) - line movement, high handle road favorite, reverse movement outweighs SKS

Auburn (13 units) - line movement, low ticket and handle favorite with lopsided wagering, reverse movement and strong sharp signal

Florida (4 units) - line movement and steam

Michigan (8 units) - lopsided wagering (this imposed to go away), reverse movement (ditto), over/under squeeze, high handle road favorite with lopsided wagering

Louisville-Clemson (No Bet) - no indicators

Washington-Southern Cal (No Bet) - line movement balanced by low handle favorite

South Carolina (1 unit) - high handle road favorite

Baylor (4 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal

SMU (8 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, SKS and sharp signal

@HooAlum

 Friday Night Update as this promises to be a lower volume but possibly higher wagering weekend.  

Boise St (1 unit) - Line movement (I know the game has started but line not overtaken yet on this small play)

Syracuse (4 units) - lopsided wagering on road favorite with high handle outweighs sharp

Miami (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite with lopsided wagering

Minnesota (9 units) - classic SKS, low ticket and handle favorite strong sharp signal

Penn State (1 unit) - line movement, high handle road favorite, reverse movement outweighs SKS

Auburn (13 units) - this one seems inflated as the tells are working together to deliver the high unit number, line movement, low ticket and handle favorite with lopsided wagering, reverse movement and strong sharp signal

Florida (4 units) - line movement and steam

Michigan (8 units) - I am very worried about this one because I honestly think Michigan stinks and 2 TDs does not seem large enough - lopsided wagering, reverse movement, over/under squeeze, high handle road favroite with lopsided wagering

Louisville-Clemson (No Bet) - no indicators

Washington (4 units) - line movement, road favroite with high handle, reverse movement, 

South Carolina (5 units) - lopsided wagering with high handle road favorite

Baylor (4 units) - low ticket and handle favroite with lopsided wagering outweighs sharp signal

SMU (7 units) - low ticket and handle favroite, SKS and sharp signal

@HooAlum

 Well, despite losing the biggest play of the season, it was a winnign week thanks to winning the third biggest play of the season and several very strong plays, particularly late.  Still not where the indicators need to be at this stage but at least they are bringing in a modest profit.

WEEKLY RECORD: 9-8

WEEKLY REVENUE: 84.6 units on 77.5 units

SEASON RECORD: 77-58

SEASON REVENUE: 488.3 unit on 475 wagered (2.80% profit)

********

Indicator Performance

Sharp Signal: 62.25%

Reverse Movement 61.9%

Over/Under Squeeze: 60%

Low Ticket favorite: 56.9%

Steam: 56.25

SKS: 55.56%

Early Start for Western Team: 50%

Line Movement: 50%

Low Handle Favorite: 46.03%

Bye Week Return: 44.19%

High Handle Road Favorite: 43.59%

Lopsided Wagering 43.21%

***********

Early Preview Week 10

Miami (5 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering

Penn St-Ohio St (No Bet) - conflicting indicators lopsided wagering and high handle road favorite balanced by SKS

Georgia (2 units) - sharp signal

Michigan (2 units) - lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze

Louisville (1 unit) - lopsided wagering outweighs sharp signal

SMU (8 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering and SKS

UCF was a killer but Bama + Oregon = that loss so still surviving and the evening will determine the outcome of the week as a whole.  (Response to the above question, these are spread plays)

Florida St-Miami (No Bet) - sharp signal balances line movement

Michigan (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement

Texas A&M (5 units) - low ticketing handle  favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp signals and SKS outweighs line movement

Wisconsin-Penn State (No bet) -road favorite with high handle balances bye week return

Kentucky (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement

Duke (5 units) -  high handle on road favorite, reverse movement and sharp signal

Kansas (2 units) - sharp signal

CHANGE: Cincinnati (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

@HooAlum

Not a lot of change in the afternoon update. 

UCF (20 units) - largest play of the year, line and reverse movement, steam, strong sharp signal, low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering, SKS

Alabama (12.5 units) - line movement, steam, low ticket and handle favorite and strong sharp signal

Oregon (6 units) reverse movement, low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal

Texas (1 unit) - low ticket favorite, sharp signal outweighs line movement

@HooAlum

Here is Saturday.  the big plays are still big plays.  This is decision weekend.  Lot of choices.

Notre Dame (6 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal

Washington (4 units) - line movement, lopsided wagering, sharp signal, reverse movement and bye week outweigh west coast early start

CHANGE: Oklahoma (3 units) - steam, over/under squeeze and sharp signal outweighs low handle favorite and bye week return

Ohio State (1 unit) -  sharp signal, and bye week return out weighs over/under squeeze

Mississippi St (1 units) - lopsided wagering outweighs sharp signal

UCF (20 units!!) - largest play of the year, line and reverse movement, steam, strong sharp signal, low ticket and handle favorite, lopsided wagering, SKS

Alabama (10.5 units) - line movement, steam, low ticket favorite and strong sharp signal

Oregon (6 units) reverse movement, low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal

NEW GAME: Texas (2 units) - low ticket favorite, sharp signal outweighs line movement

Florida St (1 unit) - sharp signal outweighs low handle favorite

Michigan (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement

Texas A&M (6 units) - low ticketing handle  favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp signals and SKS outweighs line movement

Wisconsin (3 units) - lopsided wagering on road favorite with high handle outweighs sharp signal

NEW GAME: Kentucky (2 units) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs line movement

Duke (5 units) -  high handle on road favorite, reverse movement and sharp signal

Kansas (4 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp signal

CHANGE: Cincinnati-Colorado (No Bet) - lopsided wagering balanced with line movement.

@HooAlum

 Well, this is the go big or go home week and will likely determine the season's profits with the high number of high unit games as well as the absolute number of games.  I knew UCF-BYU was a big one but was waiting on the handle which is now there

Notre Dame (4 units) - low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal

NEW GAME: Washington (5 units) - line movement, lopsided wagering, heavy sharp signal, reverse movement and bye week retain out west coast early start

Ole Miss (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite and bye week return outweighs steam, over/under squeeze and sharp signal

Ohio State (2 units) -  low ticket favorite, sharp signal, and bye week return out weighs over/under squeeze

NEW GAME: Mississippi St (2 units) - lopsided wagering

NEW GAME:UCF (17 units!!) - line and reverse movement, steam, sharp signal, low ticket and handle favroite, lopsided wagering, SKS

Alabama (11.5 units!!!!) - line movement, steam, low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal

Oregon (4 units) low ticket and handle favorite and sharp signal

CHANGE: Florida St (3 units) - lopsided wagering

Michigan (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, sharp signal outweighs line movement

Texas A&M (6 units) - low ticketing handle  favorite, lopsided wagering, sharp signals and SKS outweighs line movement

Wisconsin (4 units) - lopsided wagering on road favorite with high handle

NEW GAME: Duke (6 units) - lopsided wagering, high handle on road favorite, reverse movement and sharp signal

NEW GAME: Kansas (5 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp signal

NEW GAME: Cincinnati (3 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp signal outweighs line movement.

@HooAlum

Going to get tonight in now and will send another update for Saturday in the next half hour

No bet occurred on BC-Louisville as it did make the handle level (balance between sharp and low handle)

UNLV (4 units) - sharp signal, high handle, lopsided wagering outweighs bye week return

Rutgers-Southern Cal (Not Bet) - no indicators shown

@HooAlum

 way too late to be of use (sorry) but as a note Pitt Cuse got the handle and Pitt had low ticket and handle as a favroite which usually means a 3 unit play.