iConsciousness

Next time fart near the exotic cheese aisle. People will be flocking towards it thinking it's some new fancy variety. A brie from France, perhaps.

@soup

@bigred

@biscuit

@dubz

@cy

@sac

Thanks. 

Dubz, I suppose I overlooked totals because I'm not particularly good with them. 

Hey all, when drafting the newsletter I was going by what my book was posting. It looks like they didn't have the Saints/Raiders game up at the time, so I inadvertently left the game out. I wonder why you guys didn't say anything? (They have it now, but it's unbearable with no lines posted.)

Anyways, that makes 2 games where there isn't at least one team with playoff implications on the line.

I'll share thoughts on that game later. For now, I'm going to slip back under the covers and let the family noise exist without me.

Is it too late to get this bet in? You make a convincing argument.

Ah, just read that there's a chance Jameis Winston nor Dorian Thompson-Robinson plays this week and it could be the Bailey Zappe Show.  Under 39.5?

As I sign off this Week 17 CD Newsletter, i want to wish all my PB brothers a Merry Christmas (and Happy Holidays, in general). Hopefully there's some extra money in our pockets to wind down the year. 

Dolphins (-6.5) @ Browns

We all know how the Dolphins fare playing in the cold. The Browns aren't a crappy team. They're just a shade below average in my opinion and would possibly have a better record sans Watson's contribution earlier in the season. The Browns also lost Chubb, but imo he hasn't been the same since coming back from injury. If anything, he was there to give Jerome Ford a breather. But Ford has looked better with the ball. As for the weather, while it won't be frigid, there's a 67% chance of rain on Sunday. It'll be 54 degrees, which as a Southern Californian is plenty cold for me. Here's an interesting stat. Tua is 0-7, with abysmal stats, in cold weather games of 45 degrees or less. Will the forecast show it get colder this Sunday, between now and then? Is there a big difference between 54 and 45? (I'm relying on you cold weather comrades to chime in here.) The Dolphins are 2-6 away and the Browns are 2-5 at home. Something's gotta give. I'd honestly want to take the Browns with the points here, but in this day and age of tanking for a better pick, and with the Browns looking to replace Watson with a new QB (draft? free agency?), I wouldn't put a lot of money on it. 

I have to venture into 2nd paragraph territory here, because I haven't even written about playoff implications for the Dolphins. They're an extreme bubble team, meaning they have to win out and get a lot of help. Just to stay alive for one more week, they're going to need either the Broncos or Chargers to lose. Both of those teams play the day before, so if one of them falters, the Dolphins have to max effort this win. If both teams win on Saturday, the motivation won't be there for the Dolphins and then all it really is, is just Tua trying to kill the cold weather game narrative. I don't know if lines get affected by playoff implications, but if the lines stay the same after the Chargers and Broncos win, I'd take the Browns with the points.

Packers @ Vikings (-1.5)

The Vikings are a complete package, and they're playing at home. Both teams have a clinched a playoff spot, but there's seeding ramifications and even the NFC North up for grabs. Both teams still have a lot to play for, but the Vikings are 7-1 at home and are on a 8 game win streak. Their only loss at home was against a Lions team at full strength, and they only lost by 2 points. They also beat the Packers in Green Bay earlier this year. It's a small spread to cover, and 2 points is how much they beat the Packers by. With the way the Vikings have been playing, and playing at home, the Vikings -1.5 is an official play for me.

MNF

Lions (-2.5) @ 49ers

Give me the Lions here. They're dealing with injuries, that's the most notable part. Making matters worse was losing Montgomery last week. But, hey, guess what? The 49ers are too. I think there might be only 2 better offensive geniuses than Shanahan -- Sean McVay and Ben Johnson. I'm petering out so I won't spare many thoughts on this game. Everything I've said about the Packers and Vikings also apply to the Lions. The Eagles, Packers, and Vikings can also threaten the #1 seed. Seeing how the games play out earlier in the week/day should give more insight on what the Lions do with their players, but chances are they will need to compete. The 49ers still have some pop on offense, but they're down to their backup, backup, backup RB. Nick Bosa seems to be ailing on defense. The Lions are undefeated on the road (a circumstance of their away schedule?), and I think they can withstand the loss of Montgomery with the way Gibbs has been playing. Jameson Williams looks to be coming along now too. Give me the Lions here.

Sunday Games -cont.-

Panthers (+8) @ Buccaneers

The Buccs are kind of a difficult team to figure out. They drubbed the Chargers in Los Angeles, and couldn't hang with the Cowboys. They'll finally return home after a 2-game stretch on the road. Looking at the Buccs remaining two games, the Panthers this week and the Saints this week, they have a decent path at regaining the division lead over the Falcons. While they are both sitting at 8-7, the Falcons have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Buccaneers, having beaten them twice. Laying out the simple arithmetic, all the Buccs have to do is just win one more game than the Falcons and they're in. The Falcons have the more diffuclt matchup against the Commanders, so I can see the Buccs figuring out what went wrong in Dallas and straightening the ship against the Panthers at home. Even if the Commanders or Falcons fall short of the division crown, there's still the last WC spot, which is currently manned by Seahawks. With the Seahawks having to play the Rams next week, and the Falcons getting a possibly beat up Panthers squad next week, it's going to be an interesting final 2 weeks for all three teams mentioned. 

Cowboys (+9.5) @ Eagles

The Cowboys are probably feeling good after shutting down an ascending Buccs squad last week. While the Cowboys were officially eliminated last week, this is a divisional matchup and who knows what the status of Jalen Hurts is. Despite anything that Jerry Jones may have said, McCarthy should still be playing for his job. Beating the Eagles in Philadelphia would definitely end the season on a high note. There's nothing quite like hurting a divisional opponent's chances at a higher playoff seeding. And the Eagles are still in play for #1 overall seed. After watching CeeDee Lamb aggravate a shoulder injury in the last game, missing the 2nd half, I would imagine there's no point in plugging him in next week. Let's monitor the Hurts and Lamb injuries before diving into this one. The Eagles should still be putting in max effort though given that the Lions and Vikings (both teams they would need to fend against for the #1 seed) play at the same time slot as them.

Sunday Games

Colts (-7.5) @ Giants

This game doesn't even deserve any cursory thoughts. But the Giants are god awful. If I hadn't learned it last week, I'll learn it this week. The Colts still have an outside chance to make the playoffs. Expect them to play hard, but don't expect me to bet on this game. I have no idea what the Giants have to play for other than the not having the distinction of being the worse team. With Jones out, I suspect they'll want to draft a Daboll handpicked QB and losing another game might help them secure that #1 overall pick.

Falcons (+4.5) @ Commanders

We now have tape on Penix playing an NFL game; not that playing against the Giants means all that much. The Commanders can clinch a playoff spot with a win here. They're even still in play for the #2 seed, but need some help there. (The Eagles losing out and the Commanders winning out, namely, and I don't see the Eagles losing to the Giants in the following week.) The Buccs losing last week has given new life for the Falcons winning the division outright, which is their best path towards making the playoffs. All the Falcons have to do is win their remaining games and they've locked down the division title. Next week against the Panthers should be easier (although division matchups are always tough). I think the Commanders with the home field advantage win this, but this is definitely a matchup in which you'll have to monitor the injury report leading up to it. As mentioned, both teams have a lot to play for so I don't expect any plays off for the players.

Titans (+1) @ Jaguars

Okay, I found a worse game to write about than the Colts vs Giants. Sorry, Getty. This is the only matchup where there aren't any playoff implications for either team. I had to cheat on this one and look up both DVOA rankings and the Jags are better here. The Jags also just beat the Titans 3 weeks agon *in* Tennessee, so I'll take a peek at who's on the injury report. All things being equal, give me the home favorite here.

Jets (+10) @ Bills

Jets have been eliminated, and the Bills are still in contention for the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff race. In order for that to happen the Chiefs have to lose out and the Bills win out. We can better gauge this motivational factor after the outcome of the Chiefs/Steelers game, which will be played earlier in the week. Conversely, if the Chiefs beat the Steelers, the Bills have one less team to worry about possibly leaping them for the No. 2 spot in the AFC. Currently, the Bills are holding on to that. The Ravens are the other team they have to worry about and they also play on Christmas Day. Focusing on the more important Chiefs vs Steelers game, the Bills will have to play tough either way. If the Chiefs lose, they're one step closer to possibly getting the coveted #1 seed. If the Steelers win, they have to still defend their #2 seeding, so it's not a game they can allow fo rest time. That may have to come another week. This is a pro-Bills message. Bet -10 with confidence; division game be damned.

Thursday Game

Seahawks (-3.5) @ Bears

I feel like I haven't placed more than a single bet (if that) on each of these teams all year, so your guess is as good as mine. There is a zero percent chance of a Wild Card berth for the Seahawks. So what do they gotta do to make the playoffs? Well, they have to win a division in which the soaring Rams are in the driver's seat for. They'll be mathematically eliminated from winning the division (thus, making the playoffs), if they lose to the Bears and the Rams beat the Cardinals. The latter is a more likely outcome, so they will need to win just to live another week with an outside chance at making the playoffs. What do the Bears have to play for? Nothing other than the role of spoiler. The Seahawks O-line has been struggling and without a consistent rushing attack, it's hard for me to think this is a slam dunk play on the Seahawks. i tend to pick faves, but this is a game where I could possibly back the Bears. They've lost 9 straight, but take away all of their away games, and they're a .500 team. The Bears have O-line issues of their own, but the Bears somehow seem to hang with some of the better teams and lose admirably (Lions, Vikings, Packers) in some closely contested games. I lean Bears at +3.5 and will expect to get an earful from Sac.

Saturday Games

Chargers (-4) @ Patriots

Chargers can clinch a playoff berth with a win against the Patriots. I ain't fooled by the Patriots tough game against the Bills in Buffalo. I think this was more of an issue with the Bills not taking the game seriously enough to start it. The Chargers aren't only playing for a playoff spot, but for seeding as well. The ideal scenario would be for the Steelers to lose and the Ravens to win. In Week 18, the Steelers have the Bengals on deck, in Cincinnati. It's more plausible to see the Steelers lose the last two games of the season (Chiefs, Bengals) than the Ravens to (Texans, Browns). 

Broncos (-3) @ Bengals

The difference between the current 7th seed in the playoffs (Broncos) and a playoff bubble team (Bengals) is 2 games. The Bengals can close that gap by beating the Broncos at home. The line essentially says this game is a toss up, given the token 3 points given to the home team. But, something to consider... the Bengals have won 3 straight games. One is a middling team in the Titans, but the other two are what I'd like to think as average teams (Cowboys and the Browns, who might be a different team if they didn't start the season off with Watson). Bengals lost the previous 3 games before their current 3-game win streak to some good teams (Steelers, Ravens, and Chargers) losing by a TD or less. This is a hard game to share thoughts on without actually handicapping it, so no thoughts on any sides. But this would be a good game to watch. (Go, Bengals!)

Cardinals (+3) @ Rams

 give me the Rams. What kind of line is this? Yes, yes... the Cards obliterated the Rams in Week 2, but both teams look completely different since then. It's a divisional matchup, so anything could happen here. But the Cards have been eliminated from the playoffs, as of last week. Murray has regressed ('cause you all have been betting on the Cardinals to cover) and the Cards' defense has looked leaky the past few weeks. Murray, by the way, has 4-6 TD-INT, 11 sacks taken, 80.2 QB rating in the past month. Rams are still trying to stave off the Seahawks for the division championship, so... Rams -3 at home. I think should bet this now before it moves.

Yo! Gonna make this short and sweet. The second to last week brings a lot of interesting matchups with playoff implications.

Christmas Day

Chiefs (-3) @ Steelers 

As a Chargers fan, this is a game I actually want the Chiefs to win. And I think they do it. The Steelers are tough to beat at home, and would typically have the advantage of weather on their side, but the Chiefs are just as good playing away and are a "cold-weather team," as well. TJ Watt is ailing, and Russ is starting to come back down to earth. The Chiefs still have the #1 seed to play for. They get their this week with a Chiefs win and a Bills loss or tie. They'll also need to get Hollywood Brown as many snaps as possible to get ramped up for the playoffs. Give me the Chiefs to cover the spread.

Ravens (-5.5) @ Texans

The Ravens are still playing for the divisional lead, and they take it with a Steelers loss and a Ravens win this week. They've clinched a playoff spot, but having a first round home game is enough to play hard for. Texans just lost Tank Dell for the season and even if the malcontent, Diontae Johnson, amounts to anything, I doubt it'll happen in his first week as a Texan. On the flip side, the Texans clinched the AFC South -- a byproduct of playing in a very weak division -- but they're 5-5 in the last 10 games. They need to kick things up a notch if they want to do any damage in the playoffs. Without looking at DVA or any splits, I lean towards another road favorite in the Ravens.

I'll do it, but there won't be too much evaluation into each matchup. Just enough to kick off the newsletter. I'm on PST so I'll get a late start on it tonight. 

Diontae Johnson claimed off waivers by the Texans.

Chargers sign Bears legend Eddie Jackson.

I haven't bet against the Vikings this year, ATS, and when I've bet on them, I've made money. They've been good to me..

Yep, Charger fans complain about this all the time. I'm sure Broncos and Raiders fans, who see it more than others, complain about it too.

On the other side. Doesn't bode well for me. BOL 

1-2-1 so far.

Maybe a different story if Hurts wasn't out? Dunno. Eagles gave up too many points, tho.

Buccs -4 -110 ($110/$100)

Perhaps, but I'd still take Hurts over the Steelers-era Pickett.