iliaallen1

my 2 cents

First things first: I think you got fortunate that Kuznetsova got knocked out. Neither Errani (playing great but no Slam experience this deep) or Kerber (never done anything at any Slam venue but the US Open) look as thou they're capable of knocking off the winner of Stosur/Cibu. Some might feel I'm writing off Errani (who seems more than likely to beat Kerber given her current purple patch of form), but she's had elongated weak patches in both her past 2 matches (losing the 1st set 6-1 to Ivanobitch, and losing 5-1 through the 3rd to 8th games of the 2nd set to Kuze) and since I attribute that to her not being used to playing this deep in a Slam hence such moments represented her getting the wobbles on the big stage, there's no reason to think that another wobbly patch won't show up in her SF (should she make it). Where those 2 opponents couldn't take full advantage of those openings (Ivanobitch simply sucks these days, and Kuze had her head implode when the 2nd set was there on a platter for her to win), Cibu has shown enough thus far, aligned with her experience of making the SFs here before, to suggest she would make hay facing such a similar wane of in-game form. So from where I'm sitting, if I was in your shoes I'd be prepared not to make any pre-match hedge for Cibu's SF if she makes it that far (current future odds suggest she'd be a fav over Errani, and a pick'em vs Kerber, but I have to disagree with that. On form you want Kerber to make it through, because she'd present any easier scalp). That means you only have to worry about Stosur on this side of the draw, and the other side of the draw. Stosur is paying decent enough odds for this coming QF, so there's really no issue there re hedging.

So from my pov, you don't worry about the other side of the draw. IMO Sharapova has a decent chance of not making the final (her serve has imploded her last 2 big matches - Aussie Open final & Wimbledon final - & Na Li is more than capable of putting enough opressure on her for it to happen again: remember, she's never even made a FO final before, and she's going to have to go through last year's winner to make her 1st). If Na Li makes it, the Cibu would obv. be much better SU odds in the final, leaving you room to make a decent profit with a hedge on Na Li.

But of course to do as I've suggested, means your risking losing more than your current 200:  If I was in your place, and could afford to lose that 200 + (however much you want to hedge on Stosur) for the sake of this approach, I would. You just have to have confidence in her form that if she's capable of getting past Azarenka & then Stosur in B2B matches, then she's well capable of beating Kerber/Errani (who are both inferior on clay - based on historical FO Mperformaces - to Azarenka & Stsour).