si1ly

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replied to Ive created a football program that ive tested and want to share in NFL Betting I don't understand why you're outputting this model in percentages. For a guy that talks the talk about statistical analysis, this makes little sense mathematically. Can you elaborate as to what these percentages represent? What are they in reference to? View Post \| View Thread	AFNfootballnerd	683	November 18, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NFL Marketwatch week 11 in NFL Betting New England is my favorite play this week. I love your card by the way.. don't worry about Denver either, my numbers show a sizeable advantage on paper and I think they win the intangibles battle too. Good luck double G View Post \| View Thread	Gordon Gekko	20	November 17, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Miami at Bufflao in NFL Betting I logged back on just to say fantastic right up and I think you have the right read on this game. Especially when it comes to the turnover battle. However, a word of caution about your analysis of the Bills running game. Their opponents this season combine to allow an average of 4.1 yards per carry. The Bills are averaging 5.3 YPC. This differential of +1.2 YPC ranks #1 in the NFL. So while they have played an easy schedule in terms of run defenses, they're still shredding those teams to the tune of +1.2 YPC. The Dolphins have a good run game looking at traditional stats (3.8 YPC ranks #5 in the NFL). But if you run the same type of schedule normalized differential, they're holding opponents to only -0.1 YPC less than they average (ranks #14). Point is: I have stats to suggest that the Bills running game still measures as elite when normalized relative to their strength of schedule. And I have stats to suggest the Fins run defense isn't as good as they look on the surface - in fact have benefited from an easy schedule themselves. These reasons - and the road divisional game on TNF angle - kept me off the Dolphins tonight even though they're the better team overall. View Post \| View Thread	SettleDownSpaz	20	November 15, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NFL Thursday and Sunday... in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by phat03: Y.T.D. (40-20) +8440 Update... Thursdays Night... NFL [306] BUFFALO -1-110 (550/500) Sunday... NFL [429] TOTAL o54½-110 (NEW ORLEANS vrs OAKLAND) (550/500) NFL [424] NEW ENGLAND -9-110 (550/500) I leave for the West coast on Thursday, Gona try and root my Bears a victory in SanFran (yikes). My brother hooked us up with 4 field passes. I guess the seats come with all the food and drinks you want. Should be good. GL... Have a great time at the game! I'll be on the Pats in some way shape or form myself. Either in a 6.5 point tease down to -2.5 or ATS. View Post \| View Thread	phat03	71	November 15, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Sunday Afternoon - NFL in Website Promotions The Covers Mods have asked me to stop posting in the mains so this will be my last post here. Thanks to everyone who made this community a fun and profitable experience over the last 4+ years. I wish everyone the best going forward. -si1ly View Post \| View Thread	si1ly	58	November 12, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Sunday Afternoon - NFL in Website Promotions Quote Originally Posted by Fry888: Silly are you going to have a play tonight need a bailout game lol There are not many angles to back the Chiefs here, but the spread is enormous. I also think J. Charles will have some success running the ball. My best guess at a final score is 24-13. I'm probably not making a play tonight. View Post \| View Thread	si1ly	58	November 12, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Why are my threads being moved to website promotions? in Penalty Box It speaks to mentality you have towards your user base that this issue had to be resolved publicly in the penalty box rather than privately through personal messages. View Post \| View Thread	si1ly	34	November 12, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to WEEK 10 - NFL Breakdown Sheets in Website Promotions The DNS information looks up-to-date on the 100 or so test stations I checked this morning. There should be no more issues with little robot avatars telling you the domain isn't liked. If anyone is still having issues, delete your cache and reload the page.. it should work then. View Post \| View Thread	si1ly	199	November 12, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Monday in NFL Betting I like it. I don't think Kansas City will have ANY success throwing the ball. View Post \| View Thread	amd	35	November 12, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Sunday Afternoon - NFL in Website Promotions Quote Originally Posted by si1ly: Parlay SF ML ; NE ML ; PIT ML with one underdog you like and it could be a nice payout. I'd try the Vikings , Saints or Texans with this line-up. Stupid San Fran.. I had all three underdogs on the ML pegged View Post \| View Thread	si1ly	58	November 12, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Why are my threads being moved to website promotions? in Penalty Box Quote Originally Posted by weeble5672: I'm not seeing it. Your NFL thread is in the NFL forum. As for your other threads, I believe Allbees or Wallstreet PMed you about it. They finally allowed me to post in the mains on my third attempt. You can see for yourself in WP, they moved my second attempt after only 4 posts (in fact: the third post was from me explicitly stating to follow the rules of the manifesto in the thread).. clearly no promotions inside. I received no PM from any moderator yesterday. We don't need to discuss this further.. I will not be mentioning any external sites or social media handles in any of the mains. If I continue to follow these rules, I would appreciate it if the Covers Mods will continue to uphold them appropriately. View Post \| View Thread	si1ly	34	November 12, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to SNF »kn0wn« in NFL Betting Ground out a winning day. Nice going kn0wn View Post \| View Thread	kn0wn	33	November 12, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Sunday Afternoon - NFL in Website Promotions Check that.. (23-1) ATS and ML (8-12) Teasers and Totals View Post \| View Thread	si1ly	58	November 12, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Sunday Afternoon - NFL in Website Promotions Could have been a better day if even one of those high scoring fourth quarters didn't happen in those unders. But I can't really look at it that way.. maybe my bad luck with totals this season is just the gambling gods offsetting my good fortune betting sides and moneylines. If you count the three-team parlay I hit in week 3 as three separate winners.. I'm 22-1 ATS and ML. That makes me 9-12 on teasers and totals. View Post \| View Thread	si1ly	58	November 12, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Sunday Afternoon - NFL in Website Promotions 6 Point Teaser - Seattle Seahawks PK & Houston +7.5 (+100) 1:00 EST - Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers Under 47 (-105) 4:25 EST - Dallas Cowboys -1.5 (-110) 4:25 EST - St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers Under 38.5 (-110) '12-13 NFL: 29-13 (69.1%) +20.35u View Post \| View Thread	si1ly	58	November 12, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Sunday Afternoon - NFL in Website Promotions Unders + Silly + 4th Quarters = View Post \| View Thread	si1ly	58	November 11, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Sunday Afternoon - NFL in Website Promotions Quote Originally Posted by 5t4r5align: rams Nobody saw this coming. View Post \| View Thread	si1ly	58	November 11, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NFL w10 in NFL Betting Strong looking unders to finish the day View Post \| View Thread	5t4r5align	45	November 11, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NFL Sunday.,.. in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by phat03: NFL [225] TOTAL o48-110 (OAKLAND vrs BALTIMORE) 9550/500) NFL [217] NY GIANTS -4½-110(550/500) Best of luck today fellas... Horrible odds you got on that total, but it cashes all the same. View Post \| View Thread	phat03	41	November 11, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to WEEK 10 - NFL Breakdown Sheets in Website Promotions Quote Originally Posted by roondog248: Thats what i was afraid of. thanks for the insite. if i remember correct, the sheet had the sea hawks @ -9 I wonder if i should just grab them at -5.5 I'm already on them in a tease, but I like them at -5.5. I don't see many ways for the Jets to stretch the field today. Their defense is solid, but Seattle's D is top notch and we all know how bad the Jets offense has been this season. If the 49ers shut out the Jets on the road, how well will Seattle do at home on the west coast? View Post \| View Thread	si1ly	199	November 11, 2012 View Post \| View Thread

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