ILL

It's here - I told you a couple weeks back that Michigan would be a short number favorite on the road at Purdue and it's time to unload on Purdue.  Public already hammering Michigan

8-4-1 YTD

+10.1 units

 

Saints/Chiefs OVER 52.5.  I will likely be blindly playing Saints overs this season, as I said last week this team is a mess and they will have some games in the 70's.  Firing a bullet here today, will likely double down on the Saints/Packers over next week if this one stays under.  1 unit.

 

49ers -7.5.  Public all over this play, but I think they have the right side here.  I really don't know how the Vikings plan on scoring points - Peterson running right into that 49er wall all day isn't going to cut it.  1 unit.

 

Ravens -3.  Huge Ravens fan here and usually come out on the right side of their games - had them crushing Cinci week 1 then a letdown spot last week against the Eagles with the Patriots on deck.  This team has had this game circled since the schedule came out.  Without the two tight end package, the Patriots are just a different team and with the Welker freeze out/still working the kinks out with Lloyd, I don't see this team scoring enough to keep up with the Ravens.  Remember, the Ravens are almost unbeatable at home (won something like 22 of last 23 in Baltimore).  Revenge.  Home game.  Coming off loss.  Ravens win by 6+.  2 units.

 

Rams +14.5/Cowboys -1 teaser.  I really can't get a good feel for the Bears yet.  I am not sure if there offense is good, or if there defense is the same defense teams used to be scared of.  I do know this offensive line is still garbage, and the Rams defensive line is secretly very, very good.  The Cowboys shouldn't have any trouble picking apart the TB secondary, and I don't see Josh Freeman (ever) playing well enough to keep up.  1 unit.

6-2 last week picking up around 10 units.  On to Week 3...

Carolina/Giants OVER 50  1 unit

snake

Here's the link to the overreaction thread..

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101420347

Went 5-0 on 2 units plays today, only loss of the day was the 1 unit play on the Saints under.  On to Sunday night..


Will be playing one more 'overreaction' play tonight.  Lions looked bad week one vs the Rams (who won outright today against Redskins) and the 49ers gutted the Packers in Green Bay.  One more time, don't overreact to Week 1

Lions +7.5 - 1 unit

Seahawks and Rams win straight up as dogs, Steelers cover by two touchdowns. 


Overreact to week 1

This angle went 3-0 today

Cardinals win the game straight up, as predicted

If Notre Dame is a 2.5 favorite over Michigan I will light my hair on fire


They should be favored by 6+

2-1-1 Sides
0-0 Totals
0-1 Teasers
+1.5 Units YTD
 
Cardinals +14.  Wouldn't be shocked if they won this game straight up.  New England looking ahead to Ravens next week, Cardinals secondary is top 3 in the league in my opinion.  2 units.

Saints/Panthers U 53.5.  Saints are a mess and will have some games where they are in the 70's (looking at you next week, Green Bay) but outdoors at Carolina these two teams average around 40 points over last 5 years.  1 unit.



Overreaction plays:  Fading the public overreaction to week one performances by these teams or their opponents - pretty good trend, check out my last overreaction thread for more info.  All 2 units.

Eagles -1
Rams +3.5
Steelers -5
Seahawks +3.5
Falcons -3
Steelers -5

Bengals -1 / Steelers +1 Teaser.  2 units.

Good luck this week gentlemen

Nice week  Boom  

Tailed your FSU play - great call


Like I mentioned in your thread last week, Purdue is legit - they got their 3rd straight cover yesterday.  I think there is a HUGE spot for this team coming up in a couple weeks when they get Michigan after Michigan's night game at ND (assbeating at ND).  Let me know your thoughts.

Chalk another one up..

Bears and Packers score a combined 114 points in their games last week - put up 33 tonight. 

Bears looked great last week, Packers looked beatable - Packers come out and work the Bears over this week. 

Easy easy $$$

I guarantee you more action will be on the Redskins.  The RG3 hype is off the charts - and the Rams don't have the home field atmosphere like the Seahawks do.  A lot of people auto-bet the Hawks at home when they are underdogs, same can't be said for Rams. 

Pasteur I was typing out that Eagles play as you commented.  Will be on it as well, and I'm a huge Ravens fan.

Others to look at:

Cowboys beating up on Giants week 1 - now they face the Seahawks.  Where do you think the money is on this one?

Ravens crush Bengals week 1 - now they play the Eagles who barely beat the Browns.  Money all over Ravens early, of course.

Bears paste Colts, Packers get pasted by 49ers - Looks to be a good spot for the Packers, but early consensus taking Green Bay already.  Won't be touching this one.

Turn on ESPN or sports radio and all you hear is "Do not overreact to week 1 games - DO NOT"

But how can we not overreact?  With RG3 highlights and Peyton Manning all over the ticker - how can we not keep this in the back of our mind as we walk up to the betting window?

Well, for me, it will be at the very front of my mind as I approach the window - and I won't be overreacting. 

Let's look at last year's biggest storylines from week 1:

Bears win straight up as underdogs against the high flying Falcons.  What happens the next week?  Falcons win straight up as dogs, and the Bears get blown out.

Ravens blow out Steelers.  What happens week 2?  Ravens lose as road favorites and the Steelers blow out Seattle, not allowing a single point.

Giants beat down as favorites by the lowly Redskins week 1.  Very next week, Giants win and cover, Redskins come back in the 4th quarter to beat the Cardinals by 1, not covering.

Very common theme in all of these headlines - the team that underachieved came back and took care of business the next week, while the team that looked great got their asses handed to them.

So let's look at Week 1 to Week 2 of this week:

RG3 whips Saints in his debut - now he faces the lowly Rams week 2.  Public will be all over the Redskins and the short line, I'll be taking the Rams.

Manning puts Steelers away in second half - now he goes on the road to Atlanta, where teams rarely win. 

Jets blow out Bills, Sanchez looks great, now they play the Steelers coming off a double digit loss on national tv.  Give me the Steelers, please. 

And guess what?  The consensus so far are on the Redskins, Broncos, and Jets. 

Texans -13.  Huge line, but I'll go ahead and fade the rookie QB playing on the road against the best defense in the NFL.  2 units

9. Is Notre Dame Back? You know whats funny? That I'm even asking this question. I heard a guy yesterday say that and I couldn't believe it. Look, I like Brian Kelly and I think he is the guy to turn it around, but let's not get carried away here. It's two games and it was navy and Prude. Settle down and understand that beating Purdue and Navy doesn't mean your relevant. It just means you did what you were suppose to do. Notre Dame fans need to understand the schedule is brutal. Just settle down.

 

Boom, ND beat a pretty solid Purdue football team yesterday.  Purdue's D-line is REALLY good.  I would take a look at backing Purdue in a couple weeks when they play Michigan and Wiscy.  Don't see either running the ball on Purdue at all.