ixorv

no games met any criteria yesterday.

so the record for each category is still-

unders:
as posted    1-0
-2 total    0-0
-1.5 line    1-0
-2/-1.5        0-0
-4 total    0-0
-2.5 line    1-0
-4/-2.5        0-0
casino        1-0

overs:
as posted    2-1
+2 total    0-0
+1.5 line    2-1
+2/+1.5        0-0
+4 total    0-0
+2.5 line    2-1
+4/+2.5        0-0
casino        0-0

numbers for Friday, January 9th, 2015

if the total score from the first half of a game is...
5pm    bos/ind    109
5:30    phi/bkn    104
5:30    atl/det    108
6pm    chi/was    107
6pm    uta/okc    105
6pm    mem/nop    110
6:30    min/mil    114
6:30    phx/sas    114
8pm    den/sac    110
8:30    cle/gsw    113
8:30    orl/lal    111
...or higher, and the second half line is...
5pm    bos/ind    102.5
5:30    phi/bkn    97.5
5:30    atl/det    101
6pm    chi/was    100.5
6pm    uta/okc    99
6pm    mem/nop    104
6:30    min/mil    107
6:30    phx/sas    107
8pm    den/sac    102.5
8:30    cle/gsw    107
8:30    orl/lal    105
or higher, bet the UNDER.

if the total score from the first half of a game is...
5pm    bos/ind    80
5:30    phi/bkn    79
5:30    atl/det    83
6pm    chi/was    83
6pm    uta/okc    81
6pm    mem/nop    82
6:30    min/mil    83
6:30    phx/sas    85
8pm    den/sac    87
8:30    cle/gsw    85
8:30    orl/lal    82
...or lower, and the second half line is...
5pm    bos/ind    91
5:30    phi/bkn    90.5
5:30    atl/det    95
6pm    chi/was    95
6pm    uta/okc    93
6pm    mem/nop    93
6:30    min/mil    94.5
6:30    phx/sas    95.5
8pm    den/sac    98
8:30    cle/gsw    96
8:30    orl/lal    93
or lower, bet the OVER.

-ixorv-

it was pointed out in my TL;DR post that my numbers were obviously wrong, here are the corrected numbers for today...

numbers for Thursday, January 8th, 2015

if the total score from the first half of a game is...
5:30    cha/tor    111
6pm    hou/nyk    107
8:30    mia/por    106
...or higher, and the second half line is...
5:30    cha/tor    104.5
6pm    hou/nyk    100.5
8:30    mia/por    100
or higher, bet the UNDER.

if the total score from the first half of a game is...
5:30    cha/tor    81
6pm    hou/nyk    79
8:30    mia/por    82
...or lower, and the second half line is...
5:30    cha/tor    93
6pm    hou/nyk    90
8:30    mia/por    93.5
or lower, bet the OVER.

-ixorv-

yeah that's what i get for doing math on no sleep, here are the corrected numbers...

numbers for Thursday, January 8th, 2015

if the total score from the first half of a game is...
5:30    cha/tor    111
6pm    hou/nyk    107
8:30    mia/por    106
...or higher, and the second half line is...
5:30    cha/tor    104.5
6pm    hou/nyk    100.5
8:30    mia/por    100
or higher, bet the UNDER.

if the total score from the first half of a game is...
5:30    cha/tor    81
6pm    hou/nyk    79
8:30    mia/por    82
...or lower, and the second half line is...
5:30    cha/tor    93
6pm    hou/nyk    90
8:30    mia/por    93.5
or lower, bet the OVER.

-ixorv-

again unable to link....

the long-crit-to-your-face-long-wall-of-text-long-i-apologize-it's-redundant-and-long-and-long-and-redundant version here:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=102040549

the looooong version here.

this system was created because of a conversation about "when is a number just too
good to pass up."  i don't believe in systems, they don't work (a topic for another
time), so think of this more as an exercise in totals theory, and less as a totals
system.  i know the requirements to make a bet are going to be difficult to meet,
that's kind of the point.  There's no such thingas a "must-bet" wager, but these
are (theoretically) very close.  if your looking for an excuse to get your money
in action, these bets, if there are any, will be better than most.

read the full version here.

unders:
as posted    1-0    
-2 total    0-0    
-1.5 line    1-0    
-2/-1.5        0-0    
-4 total    0-0    
-2.5 line    1-0    
-4/-2.5        0-0    
casino        1-0    

overs:
as posted    2-1    
+2 total    0-0    
+1.5 line    2-1    
+2/+1.5        0-0    
+4 total    0-0    
+2.5 line    2-1    
+4/+2.5        0-0    
casino        0-0    

numbers for Thursday, January 8th, 2015

if the total score from the first half of a game is...
5:30    cha/tor    216
6pm    hou/nyk    208
8:30    mia/por    206
...or higher, and the second half line is...
5:30    cha/tor    104.5
6pm    hou/nyk    100.5
8:30    mia/por    100
or higher, bet the UNDER.

if the total score from the first half of a game is...
5:30    cha/tor    174
6pm    hou/nyk    169
8:30    mia/por    176
...or lower, and the second half line is...
5:30    cha/tor    93
6pm    hou/nyk    90
8:30    mia/por    93.5
or lower, bet the OVER.

-ixorv-

it didn't let me link yesterday's post, it is here:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=102040050

if the total score from the first half of a game is...
5:30    bos/bkn    81
6pm    uta/chi    84
7pm    orl/den    82 
...or lower, and the second half line is...
5:30    bos/bkn    92
6pm    uta/chi    95.5
7pm    orl/den    93
or lower, bet the OVER.

bos/bkn scored 79 in the first half, and the second half line was 102.5.
in the second half they scored 91, this results in:
as posted    loss - scored less than 92 in the second half after scoring less
        than 81 in the first half
+2 total    not applicable, their 79 in the first half was less than the 83
        needed to qualify for the +2 (from 81) to their first half total
+1.5 line    loss - scored less than 93.5 in the second half after scoring less
        than 81 in the first half
+2/+1.5        n/a, their 79 in the first half was less than the 83 needed to
        qualify for the +2 (from 81) to their first half total
+4 total    n/a, their 79 in the first half was less than the 85 needed to
        qualify for the +4 (from 81) to their first half total
+2.5 line    loss - scored less than 94.5 in the second half after scoring less
        than 81 in the first half
+4/+2.5        n/a, their 79 in the first half was less than the 85 needed to
        qualify for the +4 (from 81) to their first half total
casino        n/a, the casino line of 102.5 was higher than the maximum of 92,
        but a wager on the over would have lost

uta/chi scored 68 in the first half, and the second half line was 99.
in the second half they scored 106, this results in:
as posted    win - scored more than 95.5 in the second half after scoring less
        than 84 in the first half
+2 total    not applicable, their 68 in the first half was less than the 86
        needed to qualify for the +2 (from 84) to their first half total
+1.5 line    win - scored more than 97 in the second half after scoring less
        than 84 in the first half
+2/+1.5        n/a, their 68 in the first half was less than the 86 needed to
        qualify for the +2 (from 84) to their first half total
+4 total    n/a, their 68 in the first half was less than the 88 needed to
        qualify for the +4 (from 84) to their first half total
+2.5 line    win - scored more than 98 in the second half after scoring less
        than 84 in the first half
+4/+2.5        n/a, their 68 in the first half was less than the 88 needed to
        qualify for the +4 (from 84) to their first half total
casino        n/a, the casino line of 99 was higher than the maximum of 95.5,
        but a wager on the over would have won

orl/den scored 79 in the first half, and the second half line was 102.
in the second half they scored 104, this results in:
as posted    win - scored more than 93 in the second half after scoring less
        than 82 in the first half
+2 total    not applicable, their 79 in the first half was less than the 84
        needed to qualify for the +2 (from 82) to their first half total
+1.5 line    win - scored more than 94.5 in the second half after scoring less
        than 82 in the first half
+2/+1.5        n/a, their 79 in the first half was less than the 84 needed to
        qualify for the +2 (from 82) to their first half total
+4 total    n/a, their 79 in the first half was less than the 86 needed to
        qualify for the +4 (from 82) to their first half total
+2.5 line    win - scored more than 95.5 in the second half after scoring less
        than 82 in the first half
+4/+2.5        n/a, their 79 in the first half was less than the 86 needed to
        qualify for the +4 (from 82) to their first half total
casino        n/a, the casino line of 102 was higher than the maximum of 93,
        but a wager on the over would have won

*please note that i am using William Hill for my 2nd half lines (when available)

i am going to keep track of fourteen W/L records, the overs and the unders will be
separate, and they will have [the same] seven categories each.  those categories
are:
-all numbers as posted
-teams scoring within 2 points of the required total, and the posted 2nd-half line
-teams scoring within the posted total, and the posted 2nd-half line is relaxed 1.5
 points
-both, teams scoring within 2 points of the required total, and the posted 2nd-half
 line is relaxed 1.5 points
-teams scoring within 4 points of the required total, and the posted 2nd-half line
-teams scoring within the posted total, and the posted 2nd-half line is relaxed 2.5
 points
-both, teams scoring within 4 points of the required total, and the posted 2nd-half
 line is relaxed 2.5 points

i am also keeping an unofficial tally of casino W/L so you can have a side-by-side
comparison of performance versus actual wagers.

now for Thursday, January 8th, 2015

if the total score from the first half of a game is...
5:30    cha/tor    216
6pm    hou/nyk    208
8:30    mia/por    206
...or higher, and the second half line is...
5:30    cha/tor    104.5
6pm    hou/nyk    100.5
8:30    mia/por    100
or higher, bet the UNDER.

if the total score from the first half of a game is...
5:30    cha/tor    174
6pm    hou/nyk    169
8:30    mia/por    176
...or lower, and the second half line is...
5:30    cha/tor    93
6pm    hou/nyk    90
8:30    mia/por    93.5
or lower, bet the OVER.

-ixorv-

yesterday's post is here.

unders:
as posted    1-0    two teams score the posted total (or more) for the first
            half, then score less than the posted total for the second
            half.  the numbers are intended to be very favorable to the
            bettor, and therefore uncommon for games to qualify.
-2 total    0-0    relaxes, by two points, the total the two teams have to
            score to qualify.
-1.5 line    1-0    relaxes, by one and a half points, the second half total
            required to qualify.
-2/-1.5        0-0    relaxes both, the total the two teams have to score, and
            the second half total required to qualify by two points and
            one and a half points, respectively.
-4 total    0-0    relaxes, by four points, the total the two teams have to
            score to qualify.
-2.5 line    1-0    relaxes, by two and a half points, the second half total
            required to qualify.
-4/-2.5        0-0    relaxes both, the total the two teams have to score, and
            the second half total required to qualify by four points
            and two and a half points, respectively.
casino        1-0    if the sportsbook's number meet this criteria.

overs:
as posted    2-1    two teams score the posted total (or less) for the first
            half, then score more than the posted total for the second
            half.  the numbers are intended to be very favorable to the
            bettor, and therefore uncommon for games to qualify.
+2 total    0-0    relaxes, by two points, the total the two teams have to
            score to qualify.
+1.5 line    2-1    relaxes, by one and a half points, the second half total
            required to qualify.
+2/+1.5        0-0    relaxes both, the total the two teams have to score, and
            the second half total required to qualify by two points and
            one and a half points, respectively.
+4 total    0-0    relaxes, by four points, the total the two teams have to
            score to qualify.
+2.5 line    2-1    relaxes, by two and a half points, the second half total
            required to qualify.
+4/+2.5        0-0    relaxes both, the total the two teams have to score, and
            the second half total required to qualify by four points
            and two and a half points, respectively.
casino        0-0    if the sportsbook's number meet this criteria.

this system was created because of a conversation about "when is a number just too
good to pass up."  i don't believe in systems, they don't work (a topic for another
time), so think of this more as an exercise in totals theory, and less as a totals
system.  i know the requirements to make a bet are going to be difficult to meet,
that's kind of the point.  There's no such thingas a "must-bet" wager, but these
are (theoretically) very close.  if your looking for an excuse to get your money
in action, these bets, if there are any, will be better than most.

results from Wednesday, January 7th, 2015

there were four games that met the criteria, but only one that was bettable at
the book.

if the total score from the first half of a game is...
8:30    lal/lac    112
...or higher, and the second half line is...
8:30    lal/lac    105.5
or higher, bet the UNDER.

lal/lac scored 118 in the first half, and the second half line was 107.
in the second half they scored 85, this results in:
as posted    win - scored less than 105.5 in the second half after scoring more
        than 112 in the first half
-2 total    not applicable, their 118 in the first half was more than the 110
        needed to qualify for the -2 (from 112) to their first half total
-1.5 line    win - scored less than 104 in the second half after scoring more
        than 112 in the first half
-2/-1.5        n/a, their 118 in the first half was more than the 110 needed to
        qualify for the -2 (from 112) to their first half total
-4 total    n/a, their 118 in the first half was more than the 108 needed to
        qualify for the -4 (from 112) to their first half total
-2.5 line    win - scored less than 103 in the second half after scoring more
        than 112 in the first half
-4/-2.5        n/a, their 118 in the first half was more than the 108 needed to
        qualify for the -4 (from 112) to their first half total
casino        win - scored less than 107 in the second half after scoring more
        than 112 in the first half

[continued]

ALSO:

i am going to keep track of fourteen W/L records, the overs and the unders will be separate, and
they will have [the same] seven categories each.  those categories are:
-all numbers as posted
-teams scoring within 2 points of the required total, and the posted 2nd-half line
-teams scoring within the posted total, and the posted 2nd-half line is relaxed 1.5 points
-both, teams scoring within 2 points of the required total, and the posted 2nd-half line is
 relaxed 1.5 points
-teams scoring within 4 points of the required total, and the posted 2nd-half line
-teams scoring within the posted total, and the posted 2nd-half line is relaxed 2.5 points
-both, teams scoring within 4 points of the required total, and the posted 2nd-half line is
 relaxed 2.5 points

-ixorv-

i don't think it will matter much, but all the over 2nd half lines are .5 too high.  it should read:

...or lower, and the second half line is...
5pm    hou/cle    95
5pm    nop/cha    93
5pm    mil/phi    94.5
5pm    nyk/was    93.5
5:30    bos/bkn    92
5:30    mem/atl    93
6pm    uta/chi    95.5
6:30    det/dal    92.5
7pm    orl/den    93
7:30    phx/min    96.5
8pm    okc/sac    95
8:30    ind/gsw    92.5
8:30    lal/lac    99
or lower, bet the OVER.

this system was created because of a conversation about "when is a number just too good to pass up."
i don't believe in systems, they don't work (a topic for another time), so think of this more as
an exercise in totals theory, and less as a totals system.  i know the requirements to make a bet
are going to be difficult to meet, that's kind of the point.

for Wednesday, January 7th, 2015

if the total score from the first half of a game is...
5pm    hou/cle    108
5pm    nop/cha    108
5pm    mil/phi    110
5pm    nyk/was    107
5:30    bos/bkn    110
5:30    mem/atl    107
6pm    uta/chi    110
6:30    det/dal    114
7pm    orl/den    110
7:30    phx/min    114
8pm    okc/sac    109
8:30    ind/gsw    113
8:30    lal/lac    112
...or higher, and the second half line is...
5pm    hou/cle    101
5pm    nop/cha    101
5pm    mil/phi    102.5
5pm    nyk/was    100.5
5:30    bos/bkn    103
5:30    mem/atl    100
6pm    uta/chi    103
6:30    det/dal    107.5
7pm    orl/den    103
7:30    phx/min    106.5
8pm    okc/sac    102.5
8:30    ind/gsw    106.5
8:30    lal/lac    105.5
or higher, bet the UNDER.

if the total score from the first half of a game is...
5pm    hou/cle    84
5pm    nop/cha    82
5pm    mil/phi    83
5pm    nyk/was    83
5:30    bos/bkn    81
5:30    mem/atl    82
6pm    uta/chi    84
6:30    det/dal    81
7pm    orl/den    82
7:30    phx/min    85
8pm    okc/sac    84
8:30    ind/gsw    81
8:30    lal/lac    88
...or lower, and the second half line is...
5pm    hou/cle    95.5
5pm    nop/cha    93.5
5pm    mil/phi    95
5pm    nyk/was    94
5:30    bos/bkn    92.5
5:30    mem/atl    93.5
6pm    uta/chi    96
6:30    det/dal    93
7pm    orl/den    93.5
7:30    phx/min    97
8pm    okc/sac    95.5
8:30    ind/gsw    93
8:30    lal/lac    99.5
or lower, bet the OVER.

i am going to keep track of eight W/L records, the overs and the unders will be separate, and they
will have [the same] four categories each.  those categories are:
-all numbers as posted
-teams scoring within 1.5 points of the required total, and the posted 2nd-half line
-teams scoring within the posted total, and the posted 2nd-half line is relaxed 1.5 points
-both, teams scoring within 1.5 points of the required total, and
 the posted 2nd-half line is relaxed 1.5 points

-ixorv-

no i looking at the wrong ticket, it was 104

dal@bkn und 99.5 - 2nd half - 6 units

lal@orl und 106 - 2nd half - 6 units

betting 3 units

lal@orl und 106.5 (1st half)
sas@atl und 104.5 (1st half)
dal@bkn und 101.5 (1st half)
lac@chi und 96.5 (1st half)
was@phx und 105 (1st half)
min@gsw und 106.5 (1st half)

den@por und 109.5 - 2nd half - 6 units

betting 3 units

den@por und 112 (1st half)

Sacramento at New Orleans under 103 second half for 6 units

the difference between 75-58 ytd, +71.15 units and my current record and units was a combined 4 points (to make matters worse, one was a meaningless basket in a blow-out, and the other was the last score of a game that went to overtime) on a very rough day yesterday

only 1 game today...  betting 3 units

sac@nop und 103.5 (1st half)

check back for 2nd bets

GL
-ixorv-

Blazers at rockets under 109.5 second half for 10 units
Lakers at Bulls under 99.5 second half for 10 units