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Monday Night Football features a clash of two 3-0 teams.  The upstart Miami Dolphins make the trip to New Orleans to do battle against the Saints who have rebounded nicely after last year’s bounty scandal.  The Dolphins enter the game with a perfect 3-0 ATS while the Saints bring a 2-1 ATS record.

The Saints offense appears to be clicking as they rank 6^th in total offense and 4^th in total passing.

In both games where the Saints have covered the ATS number they have won the turnover battle.  In their lone ATS loss they had a net turnover of 0.  In all 3 Miami games they have either won the turnover battle or tied which spells trouble for the Saints.  Miami has a net takeaway/giveaway of +2 and has played a very controlled style of offense limiting the amount of mistakes this team has made this year.  If the Saints are unable to win the turnover battle they will have a difficult time covering the number. 

Tannerhill brings with him a 94.2 QB rating on the road connecting on 2 TD with only 1 pick.

Brees QB rating for the season is 91.4 throwing 6 TDs and a whopping 4 picks.

Miami made some big free agency moves bringing in the speedy Mike Wallace the stretch the field and draw the safety from out of the middle and giving Tannerhill the ability to hit his underneath receivers and gain 1^st downs.  That means big things for their off season acquisition of Dustin Keller.  Miami also shored up their secondary by adding Brett Grimes.

Miami is 8-1 ATS on the road as an underdog of less than 7

Miami is 13-9 ATS as an underdog

Miami is 7-3 ATS playing on turf

Miami is 6-3 ATS vs. the NFC

New Orleans is 2-3 ATS when the spread is greater than 4 but less than 9

Other Notes:

For anyone who consistently tracks the lines throughout the week have you ever noticed how much movement they generally is on Saints games and how the movement runs opposite to the final ATS winner. 

For example, week 3 had 43% of the action flowing towards the Cards and the number which opened at +9 -120 got bet down to +6.5 by game time.  Good RLM and one who generally follows this trend and bets the steam would have steamed their bet on Arizona.  Saints easily handed those steam bettors an ATS loss.

Week 2, Saints opened as -3 favourites and were bet up to -3.5 during the 2 hours leading up to game time which translated to heavy steam as the “bettors” were able to move the line off the key number 3.  Game finished 16-14 Saints and the ATS winners were the Bucs.  Steam bettors lost again.  I remember a few instances of the same pattern last year and I will have to go to my notes to pull the exact number.  What I do see here is a trend and a lot of smoke and mirror money coming in on Saints games to fool the steam bettors.

Week 4 we have seen the number on the Saints move from -5.5 to -6.5 on 55/45 action.  Not a lot of unbalanced action to push the line off by a full point but we are seeing it.  Will we see another instance where steam bettors get crushed? 

I’ll put my money on the upstart Dolphins at +6.5 on MNF to take on Brees and the Bounty Company.

One other interesting point to note:  It’s a fact that Bill Bilchick believes the league has it in for him based on the way he coaches his team (humiliate your opponent and win at all costs which includes cheating if you have to).  Since Spygate the Pats have never won another Superbowl. 

The NFL is a marketing juggernaut and they have done everything in their power to market their product with the image of player safety first.  If this is the case will the league try to make an example of the Saints on primetime, to attempt to embarrass the Saints by handing them a defeat and showing to the rest of the league that cheating will not be tolerated and any blatant attempt to injure will be punished explicitly.  I’m sure Goddell would like nothing more than to stick it to Sean Payton (as if a 1 year suspension wasn’t enough, they had to give two 2^nd round picks) and Williams was suspended indefinitely. 

The league will ensure that the Saints aren’t rewarded for bountygate.  Expect a phantom holding call here and there to kill a drive and take away momentum and expect the refs to let a bit more slide for the Dolphins players.

I’ll take the Fish at +6.5 all day long because:

-          The Dolphins have great numbers ATS in this spot

-          Great numbers by Tannerhill

-          Dolphins have momentum on their side,

-          Dolphins made a commitment in the offseason to win and added a few key offseason acquisitions that have paid off handsomely and most importantly

-          The zebras and their calls will be going the Dolphins way on MNF. 

I can’t wait.....Dolphins +6.5 Large All Day Long