JBasketballjr

Bulls @ Wizards

Recommendation: Bulls +1

Classic bounce back spot here for the Chicago Bulls as they’re coming off of one of their worst losses of the season. Chicago lost by 20 to the Jazz on Wednesday, a game in which they couldn’t make a shot. Before that game they were rolling, and if there’s any team in the NBA that will come back with a big performance on both sides of the court after getting embarrassed, it’s the Bulls. Coach Tom Thibodeau is a no nonsense, defense first type of guy, and he won’t stand for that type of performance.

The Wizards are coming off of a 10 point win over the hapless Knicks. New York was without Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire, and JR Smith. Washington has played good basketball pretty much all year long and it will be a good battle tonight between Derrick Rose and John Wall. Rose got the best of him last time these teams played, scoring 25 points in a Bulls 8 point victory. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Washington and I expect that trend to continue tonight. Take the Bulls.  

Thanks for the feedback and good luck to everyone tonight!

Crossroader....I post my plays on more than one site, lol. Same person.

Davidson @ VCU

Recommendation: Davidson +9.5

Not sure why this spread is quite so high because Davidson does nearly everything at an elite level. The Wildcats are now 10-2 after easily defeating Rider over the weekend, a game in which they out rebounded them handily. Davidson has one of the best offenses in the nation, averaging 85.8 points per game, good for 3^rd nationally. They have a strong shooting percentage, meaning that they are getting good looks at the basket, very important when playing a strong team like VCU. They also average over 11 three pointers made per game which is borderline ridiculous.

 One key stat that stood out to me is the Wildcats have a 1.76 assist/turnover ratio, good for best in the country. This shows me that they take care of the ball and put a premium on every possession. That’s very important vs. a team like VCU which will pressure the basketball. If there’s one area that this team could improve in, it’s defensive efficiency. However, they do rebound the ball well so we can feel better knowing that VCU won’t be getting many second chance opportunities.

The Rams are a proven team that has delivered up to this point in the season. They have the top ranked SOS and are 5^th in the RPI rankings. Being battle tested always is an advantage once conference play starts. VCU can also score, take care of the ball, and knock down the 3 pointer. Treveon Graham has been an excellent player, and it’s imperative that the Wildcats contain him tonight. VCU is not a good defensive rebounding team, an important area that could be exploited tonight. Davidson is a “live dog” in this spot, so I’ll gladly recommend taking the points with the road team.  

Penn St. vs. Michigan

Recommendation: Penn St. -1.5

It was startling to most to see just how bad Michigan was playing at the beginning of the season. Most were shocked when they lost to NJIT, and then the wheels completely fell off as they fell to EMU right after. It didn’t take much more for the sharps to realize that this just isn’t a good basketball team. The Wolverines are coming off of a bad loss to Purdue in their last game, and now must go on the road to take on a solid Penn St. ball club.

Michigan only does one thing well and that’s shoot the 3 ball. Everything else is very subpar. The Wolverines rank 206^th in points per game and 249^th in shooting percentage. Defensively it’s more of the same. They don’t hold their opponents to a decent field goal percentage and are a horrible rebounding unit. Not a recipe for success when taking on Penn St. tonight.

The Nittany Lions should come up with a big performance here as they’ve started off 0-2 in the big 10. In much need of a win this is a good team for them to get it against. Look for D.J. Newbill to absolutely take this ballgame over. Penn St. averages over 70 points per game but needs to get better at moving the ball. They don’t average a high amount of assists which has atoned for some of their struggles on offense at times. The Nittany Lions do a much better job on the glass and I can’t see them losing a 3^rd straight conference game, especially at home. Take Penn St.

West Virginia @ Texas Tech

Recommendation: West Virginia -5.5

The Mountaineers head down to take on Texas Tech Monday night in a contest that won’t be as close as the odds makers think. West Virginia has been rolling pretty much all season. They’re coming off of an 11 point victory against a very impressive TCU squad Saturday. The Mountaineers are ranked 22^nd in overall scoring, and much of that has to do with how well they attack the offensive glass. West Virginia ranks 1^st in the nation in offensive rebounding. This obviously leads to a higher output of scoring due to second chance opportunities. I’ve been very impressed from what I’ve seen out of WV’s defense as well. Bob Huggins has his team playing great on ball pressure (often full court) and as a result, their forcing a lot of turnovers. Juwan Staten is a little banged up but WV has plenty of talent to cover this number.

Texas Tech is coming off a loss to rival Texas Saturday, a game in which they were outrebounded by a wide margin. The Red Raiders rank near the middle of the pack in pretty much every statistical category. Their schedule has been middle of the road. One thing the Raiders have an awful time at is shooting the long ball. Tech averages just 4.7 3 pointers per game which is ranked 300^th in the country. Even on the road, this line looks a little low to me. Take West Virginia.

You too TW!

Air Force @ Nevada

Recommendation: Air Force +2

As an Alumni at the University of Nevada, I remain very close to the basketball program. Today’s team is much different than the teams that we saw just a few years back. Trent Johnson (now at TCU) built this program up from recruiting and execution, and took them to the sweet 16. He departed and along came Mark Fox, who continued to win with Johnson’s players and brought in some talent of his own, such as Deonte Burton. Well Fox departed for Georgia and we now have seen the talent level drop off immensely. Coach David Carter is a nice guy, maybe even too nice. He has done a terrible job recruiting and thus the Wolf Pack are in for a dismal season. They struggle mightily on offense and have no business laying any kind of chalk against an Air Force team with this much power offensively. This line couldn’t be more off.

The Falcons are led by Max Young and Trevor Lyons, but they have many more weapons than those two. Air Force has 5 players averaging at least 5 points and they’re shooting 38.3% from beyond the arc. Their defense is average but it doesn’t take much to stop a Nevada offense that can’t do much at all. Nevada has one solid player, A.J. West. He’ll do his best to crash the boards and work inside. Other than that I can easily see this game getting out of hand by halftime. Nevada also doesn’t have any home court advantage so I’ll gladly take the points with Air Force here.

Valparaiso @ Oakland

Recommendation: Valparaiso -4.5

We have a situation in this game where the market hasn’t caught up to just how good Valparaiso is. This spread provides us with tremendous value and should be an easy winner. Valparaiso is coming off of a demolishing win over James Madison, a game in which they took a 40-16 lead by halftime. That was the Crusader’s 5^th win in a row. This offense is dynamic, with the ability to shoot the 3 (8 3’s made per game) and distribute the basketball. Valpo is ranked 66^th in RPI and has been getting it done on the defensive side as well. They’re currently ranked 40^th in the country in opponents points per game and will have a hefty advantage on the boards tonight as well.

Oakland has played a tough non-conference schedule so they’re not necessarily as bad as their record indicates. However, they have lost 5 straight after a loss to Maryland on Saturday. The Grizzlies have shown the ability to score at times but their real liability comes on the defensive end. Oakland’s opponents average 78.7 ppg which is ranked 339^th in the country. They also struggle mightily on the glass, ranking 250^th in rpg.

The Crusaders come in with offensive firepower, the ability to play defense, and a significant advantage on the boards. Lay the chalk and take Valparaiso.

BYU @ Santa Clara

Recommendation: BYU -7.5

We cashed a nice ticket playing against the Cougars in their last game vs. a strong Portland entity. We’ll turn around and cash a nice ticket with BYU this afternoon. BYU has the highest scoring offense in the country at 88.1 points per game. They can really get it going from 3 point range, which can expand their lead in a hurry. I’ve been particularly impressed with Tyler Haws, who is averaging 22 ppg. Their free throw shooting is impeccable, and where they really don’t receive enough credit is in the rebounding category. They’ll definitely dominate that aspect of the game today, leading to second chance points.

Santa Clara is coming off of a nice win against Pacific. Unfortunately, a step up in class this big isn’t something they’ll be able to handle. The Broncos are averaging just 62.9 point per game, good for 281^st in the nation. Santa Clara just doesn’t do anything that really stands out. They don’t have a strong strength of schedule. They don’t play very well offensively, and on the defensive side they’re average at best. They won’t be able to hang around in this one. BYU wins by double digits easily.

Indiana @ Nebraska

Recommendation: Indiana +4

For much of last season the Nebraska Cornhuskers provided tremendous value. They were a point spread covering machine and continued to surprise bettors with how good they were. This year the betting markets have caught up and have possibly even overreacted. Nebraska isn’t as good a team as they’ve been lined, and this is a prime example that we can take advantage of.

Indiana is a fundamentally sound team that can flat out shoot the basketball. They’ve won 6 of their last 8 ballgames and are averaging 86.4 points per contest. Yogi Ferrell continues to impress with his dominant play, and James Blackmon leads the team in scoring. Essentially every player on the court has the ability to create their own shot and either score or get to the foul line. The Hoosiers can really score in a hurry, as their currently shooting 41.7% from long range. Tom Crean has really done a nice job of getting his guys to buy into his philosophy.

Nebraska is above average in many categories, but I’m having a hard time finding areas where they are truly elite, and thus worthy of being a favorite. Terran Petteway is a nice asset for the team. They play above average defense. The difference here is that the Cornhuskers really have trouble scoring. They average just 67.7 points which is a huge discrepancy here. I just don’t see a way that they’ll be able to keep up with the Hoosiers. Take Indiana.