KingCharlesIII

2-1 on Sunday. 

Chiefs -5.5 (3 units)

40-28 YTD and +10.5 units on the season. Let’s get right into it. Was gone last week and apologize for non post. Loving this card today with some contrarian picks and great buy spots with home divisional dogs. Will post SNF although heavy lean towards the Bears tonight. BOL all!

Tampa Bucs +5  (5 units)

At home divisional home dog and the public smashing saints. Look, Saints could bounce back but TB rush d has been great this year. MT will get his. If Jamies can limit the mistakes to 1 and not 3... the Bucs provide great value here. Even if this turns into a shootout, Evans and Godwin should be ready. No Lattimore effects this Saints pass Def more than you think. He’s their top cover corner so Jamie’s should let if fly. I see a cover and possibly an outright win in this one for Bucs. 

Bengals +12.5  (3 units)

 Cinnci started to use Mixon more last week and gave him 30 attempts. Oak Defense is really bad. Why they are double digit favorites is beyond me. I had this line around 7.5 so seeing this all the way up to 12.5 is a no brainer. Good value. Hope for the cover and close your eyes I know betting bengals is gross but the line tells me there’s money to be made. 

Patriots -4  (2 units)

This is a super bowl caliber team with a great bounce back spot. Look for Brady to throw heavy this afternoon. Philly D is not good although they can rush the QB. I think MCDaniels know this and will incorporate some screens to James white, Eddleman in the slot will get multiple looks, and also look for Pats to utilize their first round pick, Nkeal Harry, as he should be active for first game of season. They  let Josh Gordon go for a reason. I believe this kid is uber talented and Tom would be smart to get him some looks against this pour secondary. Seeing a score and potential shootout something like 31-24 Pats. 

3-4 today and -1 unit... not terrible, not great. Was hoping for a bigger day. SNF to come. 

Seahawks -5 (2 units)

Locked in Browns earlier in week (and posted) hopefully you got this line as well before it spiked. But here is the rest of our card along with the Browns play. BOL to all this fine Sunday! 

Browns -2.5 (buy half pt)  5 unit play 

Locking this in now. Cleveland has now lost 4 out of their last 5 straight up in addition to losing 4 out of 5 ATS... not good. If there was ever a bounce back this has got to be it. Third string QB in for Denver. Missing their second best defensive player arguably in Chubb (season long of course). If you simply look at talent alone on the field I mean Browns should win this game and convincingly. But it’s the Browns. So let’s buy the half just in case. Denver has put up 13, 6 and 16 points in their last three games. I just don’t see a third string QB coming in and putting up more points than this browns offense who just faced off against the most difficult defense they’ve ever faced. 

Jaguars -1 (2 units)

mini sharp play here this morning. Houston is banged up and this play is more so on depth. You lose Fuller to stretch field, JJ Watt your best defensive player, Tunsil on the line, etc. it’s just a deeply injured team traveling to London. This is a tight divisional matchup and I’ll take the more healthy team here to get it done. 

Vikings -4 (1 unit)

Chiefs are down maholmes again. Vikings should control the ball a majority of the game. Kirk cousins is averaging 10 yards per attempt over last several games. He’s really turned it around. They do have great weapons in Diggs, Thielan, Cook, Mattison off bench, Irv smith, etc. They are 5-2 ATS and I think they keep it rolling. 

Pittsburgh Steelers -1 (4 units)

colts are down TY Hilton and are leaning on an offense to move the ball with these WR corp- Campbell, Pascal, Cain and Rodgers...Ew. I think they will lean heavily on Mack early and often but Pitt will be prepared. This Pitt Defense is sneaky good. They are young, fast, and athletic. Great against the rush. I’ve been somewhat high on Steelers in past weeks and I don’t see why today should be different. They are at home which we know is a difficult stadium to play in. Give me Steelers for one of our best bets of day. 

NY Jets -3 (2 units)

Miami is getting some sharp action and I have no idea why. They are quite possible one of the worst teams I’ve seen. Historically bad. Their corner is out. They traded Drake. Jets, jets, Jets.

Bills -10.5 ( 3 units)

 Not a great spot for Haskins. Bills eat today. 

Browns -2.5 (buy half pt)  5 unit play 

Locking this in now. Cleveland has now lost 4 out of their last 5 straight up in addition to losing 4 out of 5 ATS... not good. If there was ever a bounce back this has got to be it. Third string QB in for Denver. Missing their second best defensive player arguably in Chubb (season long of course). If you simply look at talent alone on the field I mean Browns should win this game and convincingly. But it’s the Browns. So let’s buy the half just in case. Denver has put up 13, 6 and 16 points in their last three games. I just don’t see a third string QB coming in and putting up more points than this browns offense who just faced off against the most difficult defense they’ve ever faced. 

3-3 on the day and even in units, lost our huge play which hurt but overall missed an over by 0.5 pts. 

37-24 YTD and +11.5 units 

34-21 YTD +11.5 units

Really liking this Sunday Card today. Lot of contrarian games (in my opinion) that we have here. Let’s get right to it.

NY Giants +6.5 (2 units)

Ive been a big advocate for Detroit this year. However, this is a bad spot today. Missing their starting RB workhorse Kerryon, missing best defensive player in Slay. Golden Tate coming home for a big game. I think GMen establish run with Saquan and even have an outright shot at winning here today. 

NY Jets +7 (5 units)

Jets just got stomped on primetime. They looked terrible on a huge stage. Everyone is running to the books for Minshew an Jags here. But the Jets just faced the most difficult defense and team in the league. Jags do not have the greatest Def. They already shipped off Ramsey. I think Sam bounces back big and they utilize Leveon throughout. Public smashing this game. Don’t be a fish. Take the points. 

Carolina Panthers +4.5 (2 units)

Great underrated defense. Created 14 turnovers so far, front is good they get to the QB and CB play is great. Jimmy G and this offense is questionable to me. I’m not a huge believer in them just yet. Tough spot to travel across country but ill take a road dog with sharps. 

Eagles +2 (4 units)

Dare I take Eagles. They are desperate. But this doesn’t add up. The eye test is telling me different. Bills are the worst 5-1 team probably ever. They barely kept in games with Miami and Jets. We all know how Eagles respond when backed in a corner and a road dog... 

Broncos +5.5 (2 units)

78% of money on Colts. Line movement is weird. Sharps should be on Denver. In addition, Colts are 5-1 ATS. Water always finds its level. Broncos stink but based on line movement and this “feel”... I’m taking Denver. 

Hou/Oak Over 51.5 (1 unit)

34-20 YTD +14.5 units

Redskins/Vikings over 42  (3 units) 

34-20 YTD +14.5 units. 

I see a lot of opportunity on Sunday. Let’s see the money pile in and where the lines go. Should be ready by Sunday with another winning weekend. So far we’re 6/7 Sunday’s in the positive I’m pretty sure. I’ll wait for my trolls to send me some stats because I’m too lazy to go back and check. Still hitting at a 63% clip but would ideally like that at 68% or more. Back for TNF and of course Sunday. Hope y’all took my Pats ????

Wow my pats are pissed at me! This team is unreal. 

For those who don’t know, I am a Patriots fan and in fact I grew up In the Boston area. I’ve seen the “patriot way” and have been lucky enough to see many Super Bowls. With that said, their not invincible this year, nor do they cover every spread. In recent weeks their offense has been somewhat lacking than usual. The defense is unreal. Could be an all time best Pats Defense. But back to the offense. Make no mistake bill and Josh McDaniels want to run the football with this team. They don’t have Josh Gordon tonight but do get back Dorsett. If the Jets don’t blitz Brady (which he kills) an just sell out for run and play decent man to man against these WR they should be here all night. In addition, they are coming off a huge win with their QB back. At home. 

Now to the bet. Pats generally speaking like to kick first half. They more than not defer. Add in primetime, at home, a huge dog... I’m smelling a Jets +6 first half cover. I’d prefer that over Jets +10. But like both tonight unfortunately for my Pats. Money is better than betting your favorites just because. Let’s see if Sam Darnold and company can get off to a quick start tonight. BoL. 

NY Jets +6 1H (3 units)

34-19 YTD and +17.5 units

That was a crime to not have the over hit last night. It was at 30+ points at half including career long field goals, turnovers and instant red zone opportunities, etc. That was close but expected a better game from Philly to keep it competitive. Back for MNF. Let’s keep the train rollin after this week!

SNF: Philly/Dallas Over 50 (2 units)

BOL everyone. Let’s have a nice Sunday night and clean up this week. 

4-1 so far today and +5 units. 

That brings us to 34-18 YTD +19.5 units

SNF pick to come...

3-0 to start the day and afternoon slate fired up! LFG

Adding 

SF/WAS under 39 (1 unit)

Houston and Indy id prefer the under if anything. That’s a really close game I could see making a case for both sides. I like the GMen today. Rookie QB in Kyler traveling across country with a banged up DJ and still no Kirk. 

Already locked in Bears earlier in week. Glad I did that as spread went up as predicted. Here’s our Sunday Card. BOL all. 

Bears -3 (4 units)

Jags -4.5 (1 unit)

Redskins +10 (2 units)

Ravens +3 (5 units)

Posting Sundays card soon. 

KC