Last2thirst

Texas beat Tex AM in the SEC final 17 - 7 ....ND beat Texas AM 21 - 10 and are a much stronger and better team since that game...and I think they didn't have Price or Love in the backfield....now they have Riley experienced to run  *not throw bombs but short passes* and two absolute fast,strong chiselled beasts in Price and Love

Georgia has trouble with running QBs and ND has a very capable slot player like Brady used to have or a Ronnie Bell type of catcher anywhere the ball is thrown....as well as a strong TE and some WRs who don't drop the ball much. This Georgia defense is suspect when you get past the line of scrimmage

By the way....really nice analysis by you toilet 

Or was it Oregon's fashion of tight designer jerseys? When they have shown Ducks players on the D-line in years past and said they were 300 lbs, I swear I was looking at a LB who was too tall..... that too is the other trend in college and NFL....and Penn St did the same thing.....take a LB with size and lightning speed and put them on the end ala Micah Parsons and what they did with Abdul Carter....he dominated that game along with a few others 

Calling it a day.....back atch ya tomorrow

Started the NCAAB King of NCAAB 4 days now: 

-not too shabby so far.... ranked 58 out of 2291    (27 - 13 after 4 days and will end up either 28-14 or 27 - 15 after today)

Big QBs who can throw and run are dominating play for their teams..... TEXAS breaks the mold unless they utilize Arch a lot more

Just have a look at who is left standing and you will see the size and mobility at QB is definitely a major plus and even Drew Allar was running a lot so ......watch for this trend to continue with what the final 4 will look like > Texas will be an automatic to the next round but after that, they have to face the Irish or Georgia and I don't know 

Who looked monstrous on both sides of the ball on the weekend?

Rated #1 - Buckeyes

Rated #2 - Irish

Rated #3 - Penn St.

Rated #4 - Texas << you can bet lots of film being broken down on this one vs Clemson

The top 3 all could be rated best showing....don't just look at final score. For instance, the Irish ran all over the #1 rush defense in the land and one of the highest scoring offenses in college and were up 27 - 3 early in the first 5 minutes of the 4th Q 

The Buckeyes played angry and just steamrolled a strong SEC team .....if it were not for Nico playing at a high awareness level and motivation, the score could have been 48 - 3

Results today:

Play #1 - Alabama Under 154 x 1U   

Double Up Play #1 - Bryant +4 x 1U  << wow, what a frustrating game....took the lead by 8 pts with 8 minutes to go and I lost by 5  .........will look for the 'next one' worth 2U and might have something in a late game....looking into it now

Detroit +30 x HALF U      

Under148 Detroit x HALF U     

TCU -10.5 x HALF U    

Sunday =  4 - 1   (+1.5 Units)

Week  = 16 - 9    (+5.5 Units) - $65 exotic bets 

Season = 49 - 29  Sides/Totals ( +17.5 Units) - $78 exotics

Started the NCAAB King of Covers NCAAB contest about 10 days ago and already in the top 100 BUT, I am being very selective as I go. That is how you make the top 10. I have given the others a head start  and lets see where I end up. The work I am putting in is really paying off now

2 pm games:

Detroit +30 x HALF U

Under148 Detroit x HALF U

TCU -10.5 x HALF U

...strong lean to UNDER Virginia 119.5 ....going to play with some parlays of NFL and soccer

Sunday: Double Day on some

Play #1 - Alabama Under 154 x 1U < lowest total they have posted all year BUT they are playing a good strong defensive team who also know how to finish around the basket deep in the clock and they will bring out Alabama's good defensive side which you can see in their stats, but since they play so many good offensive teams, they tend to want to strike back early in the clock or get an offensive rebound..... Alabama will be content with a 75 - 80 pt max win while Kent St should score 65 -70

Note: Auburn - Kent St total was posted @148 and it went UNDER comfortably!

Double Up Play #1 - Bryant +4 x 1U

-good offensive team that knows and can play defense....they shoot the ball well and I don't see the same with Towson who are traditionally a good home team but on a long losing streak and if they do win here, it will be a tight ball game

Got the first line 1 hour ago....just played the 2nd (Double Up)

Looking for more plays....

Thanks. I like  IMB 

Fuse 

Play #1 - Ohio St x 5 Units -1.5 ....am up a little on the year but NCAAB is going great so I can absorb a loss like this easily and I do not think I am on the wrong side

- Buckeyes with Chip Kelly will have the right game plan/substitution pattern and defensive scheme for the Ducks....only Dylon Gabriel playing out of his mind dropping dimes will give the Ducks a comfortable victory and I don't see it....winning two games in a row

-this one will be a classic back and forth until the Buckeyes take over later in the game this time

Play #2 - Texas -13.5 x 2 U 

Going to let the Irish - Georgia line brew. I am not concerned about taking the Irish minus points and might just see if I can get to +2.5 or +3

-Georgia kicker is excellent, the Irish is not great so I can see a funky score coming up

Watching the Total on Penn/Boise for now

Not too interested in other bowl games except for the Playoffs. I might comment on one or two outside the the Final 8

Ohio St @ Oregon at Rose Bowl

-strong lean to Buckeyes > Oregon dealt a poor hand because OH has revenge and are obviously channelling their Big10 loss into motivation to face Oregon again which is what I think they quietly wanted if they are to become champs

-what I saw tonight and how they are ready, I will be on the Buckeyes as much as I love watching the Ducks

Texas @ Arizona St 

-strong lean to a whooping in this one

-Scatterboo will be contained and their QB is decent but nowhere near the scramble ability of Nico or Milroe...Sellers, etc.

Penn St @ Boise

-Boise looked gassed on offense at the end of their season (saw their last few games) but their defense seemed fresh which you rarely see these days

-Penn St speed on defense around the line of scrimmage is just going to be too much....I think Boise's defense can do enough to keep Penn St below 35 pts so I am leaning toward an UNDER with a score like 31 - 20.... 31 -17 ...do we see a 27-20 game and a cover for dog?

-will Penn St lay a marker down and control this game to even a lower number for Boise? 

- all written above reminds me that I am basing things on the matchup but I guarantee you the discussion will be around the fact that Boise only lost to Oregon by 3 and this Penn St team is just explosive and well tuned so I don't see the defense of Penn St being bothered too much

Irish @ Georgia - in Louisiana

- Irish should feel right at home

- they are one of the few teams on defense that could present some tough resistance to Georgia on offense both against their passing game and run game

-Irish secondary angle/steer receivers to bad patterns ....and stay right with their man .....which will help them to win some turnovers I suspect ....Georgia having trouble with holding potential receptions and I don't see their receivers blazing past this fast and talented secondary

-Georgia better have a run game....or a back that can pass to a RB ....Irish are just so fast and disciplined in their lanes 

I just don't know how Georgia wins unless Kirby somehow works these refs to call the Irish tight coverage as pass interference calls and we just might see that to keep Georgia in the game

-Texas has shown us that throwing the ball on Georgia is not what its all about....its being successful with the run and that includes the QB and I just don't think Georgia can handle the 3 prong run attack here mixing in short passes

Irish win by 4-7 pts and I would not be surprised if this turns into a blowout with the backup QB throwing some picks in tight man on man coverage at least a couple/few times

Georgia/Kirby can try to press all the right buttons but the Irish are peaking and deadly

You want parity? That makes it more influenced by refs and payola

No more setup games on fast surfaces in domes for certain teams (whispering SEC).....this is real proper football and more like the NFL playoffs in the elements

Big10 have 2 of the best teams and maybe 3. I also consider the IRISH to be like a BIG10 team style that is built for proper elements in tough conditions like war, and that would make 4 teams built for the grind/elements....none of this warm weather mamby pamby or dome ball

Nico showing some toughness....got my respect

I am dead even on my exotics plays (up almost $2K on ATS/Totals) so its time to make a mark on a good spot:

Kennesaw beat Rutgers at home outright and Towson on a neutral court.....home team cannot boast wins vs top 50 or 150th ranked teams

Risk $65 to win $100 profit...ML Kennesaw

JMAC won race #2 so I have these tickets alive:

P5 > 2358/1/3456 << no #7/145/26 = paid out $160 but no #7 for me but got DOUBLE below

Race 2 Double $4    1 / 7 = $4 <<< got the DOUBLE and almost all my money back > 

$2 Daily Double 1 / 7 $36.90 x 2 = $73.80

See y'all on Monday if following....

I did add #8 to all of my plays in the first race on the JMAC wheel by the way....because it was bet early and I liked the fact it got blown out last week and its cold tonight. I just got back from the off track and it was a split decision to do so and cost me more money 

 #8 won at 3-1 just now in RACE #1  

My paper tickets:

JMAC TICKETS:

1/ 46 /3456 / 145 / 26

2358/1/3456/145/26

2358/46/7/145/26

2358/46/3456/6/26

All 20 cent and the total cost converted = $47

BackUp plays - Doubles/Pick3s

Race 1 P3 1x 20 cent > 12358 / 146 / 189 = $9

Race 3 P3 1x 20 cent > 13456789 / 156 / 2345678 = $29

Race 1 Double $3    1 / 1 = $3

Race 2 Double $4    1 / 7 = $4

Race 3 Double $4   7 / 6 = $4

Total Cost $96  and then I did a revamp of race 3 pick 3

My strategy tonight is either to do a Jodi Jameson gets a win WHEEL and JMAC wheel of the first 4 races where he wins just 1 race and I do doubles on all other races with him in the first 4 races

JMAC TICKETS:

1/ 46 /3456 / 145 / 26

235/1/3456/145/26

235/46/7/145/26

235/46/3456/6/26

All 20 cent and the total cost converted = $41

BackUp plays - Doubles/Pick3s

Race 1 P3 2x .20 cent> 8 / 146/34567 = $6

Race 1 P3 1x 20 cent > 1235 / 146 / 189 = $7.20

Race 3 P3 1x 20 cent > 34567 / 56 / 2345678 = $14

Race 1 Double $3    1 / 1 = $3

Race 2 Double $4    1 / 7 = $4

Race 3 Double $4   7 / 6 = $4

Race 3 Double 

Saturday card: - very cold and NW wind at about 15 mph in their face when they leave and into the 2nd curve of the first turn, they will get a push wind from the NW direction SO horses on the outside that can leave for position just might get to the top 2 positions....keep this in mind 

Race 1: - 4 horse figure and maybe one surprise horse

Surprise horse(s): 8, 9 , 10 << I figure #8 has the best chance as the driver is hot, knows how to get to the front and keep horse interested throughout the race to work some magic down the final last 1/8

Figures: 1235 (add #8 or do a PICK3 key with it)

Race 2: - just need all 3 horses

NO SURPRISES likely...

Figures: 146

Race 3: -many horses can win, but I think 3 horses stand out

Surprise horse: #8 < well bred horse with a nice qualifier and highly regarded

Maybe: 1368

Figures likely: 457

Race 4: - need 2-3 horses here and maybe a 4th if playing a big ticket, including my surprise horse

Surprise horse: #6 < has JMac driving tonight from a very strong small barn when they bring out horses off of a qualifier ...the fact they are putting JMac right away tells me this horse will be ready to compete and it was a nice early horse appearing late last spring before it faced much tougher competition

Shocker: #10 < I know the owner and driver/trainer from my hometown and they work hard at their craft....grew up doing some card games with these lads. Nice horse and you will hear both Randy and Chad gush over it but lets face it....with strong breeds in the middle of the track and excellent drivers, this horse would be a real shocker to pull off the win

Figures: #145

Race 5: - #8's appearance in this race means that the 11 yr old will either steal the race going to the front like it always does no matter where it is on the gate OR IT LIKELY set things up for the two fastest closing horses last week which were #2 and #6 

Shocker: - if any other horse wins but if they do, it will be because all 3 of those horses battled on purpose to tire out and let another shocker horse win

Play #2 Double Up 2U > Morehead -4   .....still undefeated on my Double Up since Nov 30 and it has never gone to the 3rd leg, but know that it will and I will lose a 7 UNIT streak 

I did a lot of plays to demonstrate that even though I have stats to correlate, it is still a process of selection and sifting and I never bothered to sift as well as I could have on those other 9 plays I did today for a HALF U each....went 4 - 5 

Today = 5 - 5 ATS/Totals (+1.5 Units)

Week = 12 - 8 (+4 Units)

Season = 45- 28  (+16 Units = +$1920)

Might make a later play .....but I am now just about finished handicapping for Mohawk Raceway Harness betting for Saturday night and going to post my plays and thoughts for the early PICK5 in my Harness racing thread

Having some fun today and testing my system on VOLUME plays....looking for double correlation to play them:

Maryland -13 x HALF U 

Indiana -14.5 x HALF U   NO

Next plays 1 pm:

Robert Morris -8 x HALF U  

LIU +5.5 x HALF U      

Loyola MD x HALF U   NO

 ....late add > Pitt -16.5 x HALF U  

2 pm games:

 James Madison -1 x HALF U  NO

Florida St  -1 x HALF U   NOT LIKELY

230 pm game:

UNDER Arkansas 159.5 x HALF U   no chance....

3 pm games:

 Gardiner Webb +10.5 x HALF U   (Shit...forgot to send this about an hour ago....won't count this one in my total)

Volume is not going to work.....have to be even more selective like I have

3 pm games:

Gardiner Webb +10.5 x HALF U

Shit...forgot to send this about an hour ago....won't count this one in my total