Last2thirst

I will be going contrarian soon....maybe next week. Logic in matchup does not matter

I did play Cards runline x HALF U 

Strong lean to Cardinals runline -1.5 +140 .....mulling this one and will be a last minute decision

- Priestner with high walk rate and WHIP despite low era.....this catches up to you when you face an excellent hitting team, especially at home where they are close to .290 avg

-those walks will come back to haunt Milwaukee starter

-Gray can attack the Brewers hitters with a cold win blowing in from centrefield

Parlay > Red Sox Ml and Under +153 x HALF U  

-Hough with strong efforts vs Cleveland lineup and very strong wind blowing in from centre field will mean players will not try to hit a homerun and this means a middle of the pack bullpen will appear even stronger vs messed up swings of hitters trying to hit a knuckleball for contact 

Play of the Day so far..... trifecta negative factors against Twins: Angels ML +115 x 1U

-Twins hit lefties for .154 avg and Kikuchi having a quietly good start to year despite the 0 - 3 record so better pitcher with Angels /has strong stats vs Twins 

-Twins hit for only .190 avg in day games 

-Angels hit best in day games and hit righties much better than lefties

-Twins with a decent bullpen so this total might float under but no play for me when I see better advantage taking Halos

Can always count on the yanks!

Been getting stuck a lot on a HALF RUN over or under my number a lot the past month......Yanks and Guards are stuck on 8 runs now in the 7th inning 

Huge wind to right field blowing out in Yankees game .....

Give me Over Yankees 8.5 x HALF U

Looking into other games

RESULTS SO FAR:

 Red Sox Over 9.5 Half U  

CWS +235 x HALF U   

 Under 9 x Half U    and Cincy +173 x HALF U   

 Cleveland ML +100 x Half U   and UNDER 8 Half U  

 Phillies Over 8 x Half U   

 Twins ML x Half U  NO

 Jays ML x Half U   NO

 Tigers -1.5 x 2U      ???

Half U each > Yankess -1.5 +105   , Oakland +115  NO , Colorado Game #1 ML  - NO , LA Angels ML   - ???

Also > Texas ML +135   ???

So Far:

2 - 1

Trending 5 - 4 right now ...  3 games undetermined ???

Looking for a 9 - 6 or  8 - 7 type of day with my big play on Detroit covering.....

RESULTS SO FAR:

Red Sox Over 9.5 Half U  

CWS +235 x HALF U   NO

 Under 9 x Half U    and Cincy +173 x HALF U   

 Cleveland ML +100 x Half U   and UNDER 8 Half U  

 Phillies Over 8 x Half U  

 Twins ML x Half U  NO

 Jays ML x Half U   NO

 Tigers -1.5 x 2U   NO

Half U each > Yankess -1.5 +105   , Oakland +115  NO , Colorado Game #1 ML  - NOT YET , LA Angels ML   - NOT YET

Also > Texas ML +135   JUST STARTING...

Trending 6 - 6 right now with 3 to begin and losing my biggie play (Detroit runline)

So many NO WINS VS LEFTHANDER STREAKS today.....sticking with those streaks

Also:

Half U each > Yankess -1.5 +105 , Oakland +115, Colorado Game #1 ML , LA Angels ML 

Also > Texas ML +135 with better pitcher in Mahle 

15 game package today and its because I hit a nice Pick5 in horses last night.... $1200 win (cost me $56 to get it)

Red Sox Over 9.5 Half U

CWS +235 x HALF U << gotta take a stab despite a homer umpire 23 -10 last year for home team (think contrarian today)

 Under 9 x Half U and Cincy +173 x HALF U

Cleveland ML +100 x Half U  and UNDER 8 Half U

Phillies Over 8 x Half U

Twins ML x Half U

Jays ML x Half U

Tigers -1.5 x 2U

10 Plays.....some good prices ....one press

Lets see how we do out of 10 plays

Plays Sunday:

Cleveland ML

Over Phillies

Lean Jays if they are sending out a lefty vs Seattle (double check before game they don't switch pitchers)

Tigers -1.5 

Oakland  (only if Milwaukee puts out a lefty)

Arizona

Under Texas 8.5

Col-Nationals Game 2 Over maybe....

Will select 3 - 5 picks out of these one I look over other factors tomorrow

Play #1 - SD Padres ML x 1U   << NOPE!! ....they could not hold a 2 - 0 lead after 6 innings

Play #2 - Atlanta -1.5 @+100  x HALF U  and OVER 7.5 x HALF U  << NOPE ....what a grind baseball is .... get 3-4 innings to close the deal and they cannot. Unreal

Texas - Dodgers Under 8.5 was Play #3 for me x HALF U  

....will keep trying to use my data plays

Texas - Dodgers Under 8.5 was Play #3 for me x HALF U......forgot to post but I was leaning that way in my two earlier posts today

San Diego is my main play and feel like presses on them .....just might after the 1st inning if King allows no runs but will do so in-game

Wind is picking up in Chicago and getting cooler....avoiding that game to go OVER now

Strong lean to OVER in the Mets game now.... 20 mph wind to dead centre and ball carries well there in this scenario

Umpire allows about 1 HR per 3 innings so the Cards are a high avg hitting team and the Mets have some dangerous hitters..

Strong wind blowing out to left field in Pittsburgh and this protects the fastball pitches as long as they work the edges/outside of the plate or high strike ..... could see rain delay or rainout halfway through ....strong lean to UNDER 8 now with the weak Pittsburgh hitters and Skenes neutralizing Clev bats if he is strategic with his catcher calling setup pitches 

Lean Texas vs the Dodgers now instead of Under as Sasaki walks at a high rate and Eovaldi does not.....he has only allowed 2 walks in April and 1 HR so far ....UNDER should be good or take 

Really like the -2.5 for the Red Sox with Crotchet having a very high K-rate vs a feeble hitting road team here....... Shane Smith walks hitters and that is not good vs a good contact team like the Red Sox

LA Angels is where I lean in the late game....they hit well at home

Saturday Ideas: - where edges apply using my data + potholes mentioned

 KC - Detroit > Tigers ....lean Tigers due to terrible hitting away games and vs right handers ....that said, they historically hit Mize for over .400 

Arizona - Cubs ....two very strong hitting teams in all situations with wind blowing in at Wrigley but I still think the total could fall in this game

Cincy - Baltimore ....Cincy does not hit well in DAY games but have one of their best on the mound - Orioles bringing up a young pitcher for first ML start ..... I smell an UNDER? Baltimore bashers will be told to cut down their swings and give the rookie a chance since Reds are iffy themselves during day games > Total is 9 runs > warm air and very strong wind blowing out.....I am re-thinking this angle 

Fade Skenes? Or Under? - Pitt is not great hitting in Day games or against righties 

I want to see who the umpire is and then I might take the UNDER 8...

Strong lean to Rangers- Dodgers Under 8.5 .... two capable pitchers and both these teams are not tearing the ball cover off and Texas homefield has become an UNDER stadium

Red Sox should cover that runline but its tiny.....White Sox are terrible hitting in Day games and Away facing the ace of the Red Sox....they seem to be sending out a decent pitcher for the White hosen BUT CHECK OUT THE WIND rating at 16 mph out to dead centre field 

Washington-Colorado..... Rockies decent hitting at home and Nationals are not good hitting away but their pitcher has had success vs the Rockies. Very cool air blowing out to leftfield so I am not sure how to read this game....lean UNDER 9 but just which that number was higher

Play #1 - SD Padres ML x 1U 

-insta bet when I see Mike King pitching and a night game for Houston who only hit .194 at night

-it helps that SD lost last night as they are  2 - 1 after losing a game and only have one 2 game losing streak all season which was vs the Cubs and the Astros are NOT the Cubs 

Play #2 - Atlanta -1.5 @+100  x HALF U  and OVER 7.5 x HALF U

-Minny is not good vs a lefty and Atlanta hits for over .300 at home facing a gas can type of pitcher

-Sale has been a little bit of a gas can himself but his record is good vs the Twins and this game presents an opportunity to reset for him 

-Warm with slight wind blowing into 3rd base side of the field

Leans for Play #3 > Angels or Under  > Red Sox alternative runline -2.5 > Pirates Under 8 > or even Dodgers -Rangers Under 8.5 looks tasty 

- my 3rd selection will come down to umpires likely and also I like waiting to see if there is a surprise pitching change 

Thanks JFEEZEE 

.........not many have been thinking that lately 

But, I think the data is going to lead me to the best opportunities and hope you are coming for a ride occasionally when it really starts to flow. My NCAAB season mirrored my start here in Baseball and then I really got on a roll until the last 1/3 of the season

KEEPING STREAKS ALIVE >  consider only games  streaks of 3 - 6 games (cap) in a row whether using TOTAL or RESULT for my selections

 =====================================

ALL GAMES IN THE SEASON ARE RECORDED UNDER THE FOLLOWING CRITERIA:

a.  Over Streaks of 3 - 6 games in a row >   43 - 37 (season)  = 53.8%  (rise 3.8 %)  

b.  Under Streaks of 3 - 6 games in a row >   80 - 63 (season)  = 55.9%  (decline 2.2%) 

=======================================

c. Win Streaks of 3 to 6 games >   66 - 50 (season)  = 56.9%  (decline 2.4% ) 

d. Losing Streaks of 3 - 6 games  >   68 - 53 (season)  = 56.2%  (rise almost 1%)  

e. Losing streak vs a  Leftie 3 games or more >  =  16 - 12  =  57.1%  

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Strong Hitting Teams Situationally:

Excellent at Home:

LA Angels  .308

Atlanta      .301

St. Louis    .292

Excellent vs Lefties:

Toronto   .293

Oakland  .290

Miami     .288

Weakest Hitting Situations:

Minnesota vs lefties  .122

Houston  vs  lefties   .129

Cinncinati vs  lefties  .146

Pittsburgh on road    .173

Seattle  at home      .187

Friday: - summary of plays/results

Play #1 - Baltimore-Cincy Under 9.5 @1.78 x HALF U   

Play #2 - Twins - Braves Over 8 x HALF U   

Play #3 - Cleveland runline -1.5 @ +125   and Cleveland ML @1.74 x HALF U each 

Play #4  Padres ML  +135   and UNDER 9 Runs  - HALF U each  

Play #5  - SF - Angels Under 8 x HALF U  

I'll take a winning night  ........down on the season BUT....starting to hone in on how teams hit and handle which type of pitchers

Play #4  Padres ML  +135  and UNDER 9 Runs  - HALF U each 

-Astros hit lefties for a .129 avg and are on a two game losing streak vs them

-San Diego is one of the best hitting teams and highest run scoring/base running aggression teams

- Teams that have lost 2 or more vs a leftie have not won the 3rd game or more to this record > 13 - 8 losing streak continues

Play #5  - SF - Angels Under 8 x HALF U

-SF is a good hitting teams but not vs lefties = .207

-Tyler Anderson having a good year

-cool weather and wind no factor ....cool night air will keep ball in the park 

-Angels are going to be groggy at the plate from their east coast trip they flew in late last night

Play #3 - Cleveland runline -1.5 @ +125 and Cleveland ML @1.74 x HALF U each 

-Pirates are a dumpster fire and likely not very good vs a good hitting American League team

-Pirates hit .196 and .197 to either rightie or leftie and Cleveland has a good bullpen so even if the game is tight, I expect the Guardians to come back into the game if down or forge ahead in the late innings 

Might find two more....if I only find 1.....I will make a judgement call for a late play to post later on