Last2thirst

Sorry to hear that Hoo 

I lost my joy of over 15 years this past summer after watching her slowdown and having to fight to still pleasing her masters despite vastly deteriorating abilities...... tough ole dog and full of heart. Most days are still enjoyable for me but I have my deeply missing her moments that make me realize that life is precious and so too are the things we love and cherish.....especially if we put them to bed and start their day, walk them/feed them (who does this to their wife  so therefore, they get a special place in our hearts)  and have a good ole time with them trying to make them happy/extending their lives....  tough writing this and so I appreciate you having the strength to mention it.

All the best,

Plays on Wed: - HALF U each > 2- 3 - 1 in official plays Tues plus I got the unofficial Binghampton +7.5

Richmond -8.5

NC AT T   - 7.5 

Fairleigh Dick +6.5

South Dakota -1.5

$30 parlay > Murray St Ov 148 and Gonzaga -34 

$30 parlay > Md Shore +25.5 and Gonzaga Over 151.5  ......Zaga will want to shake off the yicky tight game feel playing Aztecs the other night and Long Beach St can score but also have trouble scoring in stretches

Add also UNDER 152 Grand Canyon

 UC DAVIS +17

Patience this week in capping have produced the following plays so far:

Boise -22.5 @ Wyoming x HALF U  >> have beaten each team with 100+ ranking vs rush easily and Wyoming is 117th vs run 

-Wyoming is dependent on run to get their offense going and Boise is one of the best vs the run

-high winds over 19 mph so I see shorter passes and lots of running /kicking for field position and I only expect Wyoming to score 13-14 pts and at most 17 in this game

Under Boise 57.5 x 2U > see above about wind and matchup as well as the fact that Boise scores less on the road

-don't expect Boise to score over 40 in this one unless there are a lot of interception returns for TDs

Irish -14 x HALF U @ Yankee Stadium where the Irish play very well usually in this rivalry....just too much on defense where they match up well vs a military team including if they pass to a very strong and disciplined Irish secondary

Buckeyes-Hoosiers Under 52 x Half U - don't see a high scoring game after watching Michigan defense controlling the Hoosiers ...who I think won't score more than 21 and 24 at most and limit Buckeyes to a number around 30

Might have a couple more that I am eyeing but no rush until Saturday

Tuesday night: Half U plays

Maryland Over 138.5

UCONN -38

Florida -35.5

Penn +16

Oral Rob +10

N.Iowa -14.5

Those are my best ....and Binghampton +7.5 but could not post early enough to include in official plays

How Rourke plays will be the indicator because Hoosiers lines are good to great and having to face great lines of the Buckeyes

I watched Rourke in the pocket and his footwork vs Michigan and I am not convinced he was showing grace under fire

Indiana with the 61st best SOS vs a team with the 9th strongest who are priming to be the best team in college this year.

I lean Buckeyes to play to potential with Will Howard cozy and confident at QB as the season rolls on. I just don't know if +13 can be covered by Indiana and I will definitely make an in game bet at some point. 

Will Indiana score more than 20 on this defense on the road? How well will the Buckeyes run? Do they even need to rely on their run game with the protection they get for Will Howard?

Strong Lean Under here  >>  31 - 17 or 31 -20 score and maybe Buckeyes will only get 27-28 and even if Indiana plays crazy good and get 21-24, ........ 52 pt total is too high 

Tuesday games I am angling on:

Villanova - Penn

Louisiana - Rice

Florida St - Hofstra

N. Iowa - W. Illinois

Belmont - Oral Roberts

Florida - Florida AM

Kentucky - Lipscomb

Binghampton - Longwood

Would have been terrible day so it might be time to work on the FADE lines for a while and work opposite some winning ATS lines and rank matchups. A combo of both of them might produce over 60% winning sides until things settle out.

The only RANK category that is consistently doing well is RANKED TEAMS #1 - #20 who are 33 - 18 ATS against any type of line ATS as a favorite

Off to a losing beginning so I slowed it down for at least a few days.....inputted more data.

Today I had the following spreads as ripe from my data but only as simulation: (I have not checked results since I was at some watch parties for Bills -KC and then the Grey Cup game)

Not sure what the closing numbers were for these:

Stonehill -2 

UC Santa -6.5

St. John's -9

Princeton -5.5 

EWU -5 

USC -8.5

Washington -10

Manhattan -1

W.Kentucky -5.5

Miss St -7.5

Hawaii -5 

11 games ...........

Only like 2 lines this week and might be talked into a couple more.....

Week 12 games eyeing:

Notre Dame at home vs Army

Texas AM @ Auburn

My New Rankings of Strength For the College Playoff:

1. Oregon

2. Ohio St. 

3. Ole Miss

4. Georgia

5. Tennessee

6. Alabama

7. Notre Dame 

8. Texas 

9. Penn St.

10. Indiana (how they fare vs Ohio St determines IF a Playoff team

----------------------------------------------------

11. South Carolina 

12. Texas AM

13. Miami  (not better than 2 SEC teams above them)

14. BYU 

15.  SMU

16. Boise

17. Clemson

18. Missouri

19. Colorado

20. Arizona St.

Next Tier > Tulane, UNLV, Army, Iowa St, Illinois 

My outlook is now changed to view Conference Strength and who beat who/who plays harder schedule to reflect my final rankings starting now. 

 Wins vs Top 15                            SOS of Teams in Past Top 20 Teams

Oregon    2 wins (0)                        #21          beat Ohio St by 1 / beat Boise by 3

Ohio St    1 win   (-1)                        #9          Beat Penn St by 7

Notre Dame 1 win (-1)                     #32         Beat SEC > TexAM by 10 pts/ beat worst Big10 by 59 pts

BYU       1 win   (-1)                        #35          Beat SMU by 3

Georgia 2 wins  (-2)                          #1         Beat Texas by 15/ Beat Tennessee by 14

Ole Miss 1 win (-2)                           #5         Beat Georgia by 18 /S. Carolina by 24

Alabama 1 win (-2)                           #2         Beat Georgia by 7 / S.Carolina by 2

Tennessee  1 win  (-2)                      #7          Beat Alabama by 7

South Carolina 1 win (-3)                #4          Beat Texas AM by 24 / lost to Alabama by 2

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Indiana    0 wins  (0)                       #61        Beat two good 5-5 Big 10 teams

Army       0 wins  (0)                     #119                  -  -  -

Texas      0 wins  (-1)                    #10         Beat a 5-5 good BIG 10 team by 17/ Okla by 31

Penn St   0 wins (-1)                     #15         Beat Illinois by 14

Boise      0 wins  (-1)                    #68         lost to Oregon by 3 / Beat Wash St by 21

Miami     0 wins   (-1)                   #24         Beat a 5-5 SEC team

SMU      0 wins    (-1)                   #47         lost to BYU by 3

Texas AM   0 wins (-2)                 #13          Beat 3-4 good SEC teams

It doesn't matter Spottie. The writing is on the gambling wall. Take a break is what it says! 

Enjoying NCAAB already, but even there, its a little wild too so that is the nature of the beast with NIL and coach-hotshot player mixes now 

Just going to enjoy watching and betting some parlays here and there or in-game plays.

I just bet Tennessee ML when they hit the 50 yd line and will see if they can proven it 7 - 0 Vols but Georgia has a door open with Boise losing by 2 TDS

I mentioned fading Boise this week as I noticed their offensive explosiveness has slowed down .....SJST +13.5 was the play all week and I looked the other way 

Cheering fun teams now like Ducks.....Zona St......Tex AM....and Colorado .... neon Deion gets back at haters  and finally the Irish who have been one of the most consistent playing teams all year if you look at win style 

 Just need logical to logically win  - watched the whole Texas game and I shake my head how Sark will quietly put up with the apathy on this Texas team at times. WHERE IS THE F$$KEN URGENCY!!!

Honestly, Texas looks sleepy and getting worse.....like the BIG10 teams used to be and now are what the SEC was >> exciting!

I hang my hat on South Carolina who I have been behind all season and they have played with passion. DOUBLE -UP needs to come through or my season is pretty much done until I see something that makes sense.

Man, I will say it again. So many teams are playing inconsistently except for mostly the BIG 10 best teams 

Cmon S.Carolina!  

UCLA did not cover  on my DOUBLE UP .....

Game #2 in Double UP = was laid last night Texas -12 for 1 Unit and I laid a second UNIT for 1U @-12.5 when UCLA game was over and I see the line is now -13 

-I was playing the line of -12 regardless which I could not believe had dipped that low 

-Arkansas has difficulty vs the pass and their d-line is good but don't think they are push around Horns line/get to the QB good!

Game #3 = S. Carolina - 13 x 1U  so far laid << this becomes my final DOUBLE UP for 4 UNITS if I lose Game #2  (will add before game time)

-this is one of my favorite teams to watch when they play at home.....so much energy and crowd behind them

-they destroyed the Sooners on the road and a hobbled and over rated Tigers team has no business coming in there and hanging with a very tough S.Carolina team who are rolling with a healthy and dominant Sellers at QB

My plays tonight:

South Dakota St Jackrabbits -3.5 x 1U << traditionally a very strong home court no matter the strength of the team

-in this case, they are rated higher than N.Colorado

-I may use the Total in a Teaser since both teams can generate points and have been in medium to high scoring games

Strong lean to Seattle  -4.5 @ Cal Poly who give up many points but road faves have hit a snag lately despite good rank metrics  and offensive stats

Teaser 5 pt: - $30 each

Seattle Over 146 with Buffalo +11.5 with Arizona St +10.5

SDST Over 148 with Seattle +0.5 with Robert Morris -4

Pacific - 0.5 with UNLV -12 with Arizona St +10.5

UCLA +4 is Play #1 this week for me x 1U - Its DOUBLE UP weekend in tribute to my ole friend who I miss and respect for his fun, MAC Action gems and enjoyment of horses and handicapping with me over many nights together

I lose this one tomorrow, I will find another and it will be for 2U ....lose that, double the next one (I won't go beyond a triple loss)

I am eyeing some other lines but going to have some fun doing it this way this week

Sure enough, my gut and selections were not in alignment although I still have a shot at the TEASER with UC Santa Barbara having to win by 8 pts and they are doing so right now in the 2nd half

Hofstra beat Seton Hall so I chose correctly but it was not laid as my ML VALUE play

Will keep trying to look for that perfect night!

Appreciate that VK 

Lots of game left....might kick myself for not just taking SIDE ATS with Wofford. Plenty of time to inflate the score I hope with the homecourt 3-bomb parade and hackfest to climb back

My Plays for Wed night:

 Play #1 - Wofford -4.5 @ Presbyterian  > parlay ML with OV 146 pays +175 x HALF U

- 8 - 1 ATS are teams ranked 151 - 190th getting a spread of -3 to -5.5 

- I see Presbyterian like to score and have a terrible defense so I will just lower my risk and take ML with Over

Play #2 Western Illinois  - 2 x HALF U  << strong ATS bias in this ranking situation

Play #3 TEASER 5 pts for $30 and pays HALF U return  > Hofstra +10 with  UC Santa B -7.5 with Wright St +12 with Texas Tech -14.5  << very strong ATS bias between -15 to -20.5 BUT a lot of these lines recently have just missed in the past couple of nights around -17 to -20 so I am buying some comfort here

HOFSTRA was my ML VALUE consideration because Seton Hall has not cracked 60 pts scoring yet .....  this pays +170 so you are welcome to try but I think I will use in my TEASER ....might kick myself