Last2thirst

The young guy Langway was on the golf cart I saw in highlights.... Ya, I see Warner was in the game the rest of the way

I thought I saw Mertz on the highlights but I guess not...they were referring to him probably

Good luck my friend 

All the best 

Its going to be a great season

Great to be back and ready to saddle up! 

Hoops time!

Half U = $60

TEASERS = $30 or HALF U

 everyone!

Play #1 - Charleston/S.Illinois UNDER 146.5 x 1U

- new coach for Charleston from Louisville and I suspect defense will be emphasized while the offense system remains a work in progress with a new coach

-SILL is a defensive team traditionally and were Top 70 last year

- Charleston has gone UNDER 146 pts in their last 16 games on a neutral court vs a non ranked AP team

- each of SILL's past 10 games have done the same also (UNDER 146)

Great to be back and ready to saddle up! 

Hoops time!

Half U = $60

TEASERS = $30 or HALF U

 everyone!

Play #1 - Charleston/S.Illinois UNDER 146.5 x 1U

- new coach for Charleston from Louisville and I suspect defense will be emphasized while the offense system remains a work in progress with a new coach

-SILL is a defensive team traditionally and were Top 70 last year

- Charleston has gone UNDER 146 pts in their last 16 games on a neutral court vs a non ranked AP team

- each of SILL's past 10 games have done the same also (UNDER 146)

Betting successfully, rarely puts heart over head when it comes to making $$

On that note.... I see a strong teaser combo with the following as my Keys Teased +7 pts:

- Iowa St +4 >> still in contention with one loss and could still win the Conference and have a strong offense that and good defense vs a team with a so-so offense and good defense that cannot make a bowl

- Cincy +3 >> Greene is out for WVU and their top RB is wonky...just don't have the defense or offense to overwhelm the home team looking for a nice bowl and attracting eyes for recruiting purposes on a good season going

- LSU +10 >> Nuss and his receiver package/better O-line play is enough to cover a two score lead no problem vs a rival where the loser is likely out of the Playoffs....this one could be a classic

Combo those for HALF U or $30 each with:

1. Louisiana -7  ($30)

2. Louisiana Over 53.5 ($30)

3. Vandy +10.5 (H) << CANCELLED Vandy +3.5 SIDE Play ....like this much better!

4. Oklahoma +9.5 (H) ...almost made them a KEY.... Cook and Noel are wonky and passing game is not the best....Sooners defense will help get the ball back into a rejuvenated Jackson Arnold 

5. Indiana -7  (H)...will use in some backup plays too

6. Ole Miss +9.5 ($30) << how much I respect that win over Texas by Georgia, can they do it again? ....one of the best offenses Georgia has faced this year and defenses... like Texas

7. Over Colorado 55.5 ($30) ...both teams don't match up well defensively and there is a ton of skill on offense

8. Duke +10  ($30) 

9. W. Michigan +8.5 ($30)

Probably play some other combos too or go with some sides.....waiting for Texas line to come down maybe?

No argument on your points Spottie....watched the whole game. Howard rose above because he was super motivated and had a bad taste in his mouth for being looking over for 2x 5 star recruits.

Franklin + co are just not good enough but remember, it took Harbaugh 4-5 yrs of never being good enough and a QB killer to finally breaking through. Their defense focus and top RBs is excellent and they just need to pass on the control exclusively to an OC with great pedigree like Chip Kelly at Ohio St. << there is your MVP of that game!

By the way.....I think people looking into this thread should pay attention to TOTALS that I find through the week and others.....lots of distractions will happen this week and they are describing wild weather changes across the U.S. that could come into play this weekend

Pay attention to what people find...and double check yourself. That is my #1 recommendation if you see a total. They can be quite profitable and this is the time of the year I begin to look for these in NCAAF and NFL ....and NCAAB starts tomorrow! Lots going on...thanksgiving soon

Hey, you finally got a square bet right 

I think we need to tap that side a little more buddy. You won, I won if you noticed. I teased PSU to +11 and made the Army rug pull call by the skin of my teeth

Love you man....was expecting you to pat you on the back  and let me know it haha ........ like I said before, can you imagine if we put our heads together. You let me have my best square plays and I let you work your + points magic AND.....we select music with each play??  

Phew....got it right at open and already -13.5 Indiana 

Play #2 - NIU - W. Mich Under 52.5 x HALF U

- might add to this and going to watch this closely......also lean W. Mich but feel they won't be able to dictate the line of scrimmage or move the ball in big chunks that has held strong teams to under 50 pts consistently

- NIU and WMICH tend to score under 50 when they meet 

- NIU loves playing on the road and keeps scores down..... NIU 4-4 with a pretty good shot to go 3-1 the rest of the way to getting a decent bowl game based on their scalp of a Top 10 team in Notre Dame

- WMich with 5 wins so they are 'comfortable'.....I think being stressed for results and having a strong defense will mean Northern Illinois will dictate the flow of the game

Iowa St @ Kansas  -3.5 << this line is on watch. Neal hurt and Hishaw likely out as a run threat and Daniels does not worry me 

-Kansas has one the last 2 years

- Iowa St. still in the mix for a PLAYOFF spot and must win this game....can they cover. ON WATCH for now

Syracuse @ B.C. -1.5 ....strong lean on B.C. with urgency and Castellanos throwing and running wild ability when they need him to....B.C. with only 4 wins and it would be a shame to miss this team in bowls. Syracuse with 6 wins already! PASS for now but come back to this tomorrow or tonight

WVU @ Cincy -4 << strong teaser candidate and WVU not that healthy but needing a win with only 4 ....so I am a little cautious as we could have a tight game despite Marichol at QB and Donaldson not playing....WVU has good options at RB and backup is capable.....CINCY not strong on defense but can knuckledown and keep things preventable while their offense goes to work

Play #3 - Nevada @ Boise OVER 60 x 1U 

-Boise likes to score at home and the weather looks great with little wind

- Nevada can attack Boise's defensive weaknesses and so I expect them to put up 20 or more pts and let Boise take care of the rest

Play #4 - Vanderbilt +3.5 x HALF U

-Sellers and a rejuvenated Rahiem Sanders will be tough but remember...Vandy defense took care of business vs Milroe so I comfortable with them keeping this game tight and letting Pavia work his magic 

Slowly going through these.....will comment later and take a break

Its the road wins and statistical dominance they are doing it on both sides of the ball. I have moved them and BYU up slowly while keeping traditional one loss strong programs above them but not anymore since their win style and consistency speaks to a strong team

They had a strong transfer group + a deadly coach with x+ o's/prep and motivating characteristics....its a potent mix. 

Just before 2 pm, I see Indiana at -9.5 on Vegas Insider but not open on BET365 just net

You bet 

Lots of memories on that one in bars in my college years..... 

Games That Might Have an Edge for Bettors after lines come out:

- Florida @ Texas >> Mertz will be surrounded all game and does not have the arm to get his throws off quickly to be effective as we saw at Wisconsin when he played a top defense and Texas has one .... I am predicting a stomp here due to style points that are much needed 

- Georgia @ Ole Miss >> Rebs have a strong defense and Kirby better not sleep much this week and be in the film room with both his OC and DC figuring things out.... I see blood in the water but not sure for which team yet?

-Army @ N. Texas >> if Army QB is healthy, there are going to be some points scored in this one!

- Colorado @ Texas Tech >> has some meaning for the Buffaloes program as Sanders might end up Top 20 ranking with a win and continued strong play the rest of the season ...interested to see what the TOTAL is here and if too high, I might go UNDER

-S.Carolina @ Vanderbilt >> another line I want to see and pounce on one side if injury health checks boxes

***ALABAMA @ LSU*** ...definitely get some popcorn  ....loser will likely not make the TOP 12 Playoff

I see nothing! I hear nothing! 

You are priceless, just like Hogan's Heroes was entertaining to watch.  Thanks Hoo, on it 

Made $$ two weeks in a row and every once in a while a blind squirrel finds a nut quickly dropping out of a tree. 

I am following my IDOL and no its not Billy, but he is cool too!  

Play #1 as soon as I can > Indiana -12.5 x 1 U

Lots of sweat in that one.....  Thanks 

Thanks for the early suggestion ...Rourke is back in the saddle and I agree. Much respect in my rankings for Hoosiers ! (see above)

Top 4 Seeds For Playoff likely: (Done on Tuesday - based on Top 4 Conf leaders)

1. Oregon  (Big 10)

2. Georgia  (SEC)

3. Miami   (ACC)

4. BYU     (Big 12)

My Actual Best Teams Ranking:

1. Oregon  (zero losses) 

2. Ohio St.  (best 1 loss team in strongest Conference)  

3. Georgia  (2nd best 1 loss team)

4. Miami  (no losses)

-------------------------------------

5. Texas  (3rd best 1 loss team)

6. Indiana (no losses)

7. Penn St. (4th best 1 loss team)

8. Notre Dame (5th best 1 loss team)

9. BYU  (no losses)

10. Tennessee (6th best 1 loss team)

 --------------------In the Hunt-------------

11 Alabama  (best 2 loss team)

12  Iowa St. (7th best 1 loss team)  << if weak play in any game, they move down to #15-18

-----------------------------------------------

13 Ole Miss   (2nd best 2 loss team)   

14  LSU        (3rd best 2 loss team)

15  SMU      (8th best 1 loss team)

----------------------Maybe --------------

16. Army (no losses / weakest SOS)

17. Texas AM  (4th best 2 loss team)  

18. Boise  (9th best 1 loss team)

19. Pittsburgh (10th best 1 loss team)

20. Vanderbilt (best 3 loss team - beat Alabama)   

None of these teams will be considered for Playoff and positional consideration given considering SOS and if they could beat the other nearest them on a neutral field.

AFTER WEEK #10 > TOP 2nd/3rd Level Teams

 #21   S. Carolina   #22  Clemson  #23  Iowa   #24 Colorado   #25 Minnesota  

#26  Missouri  #27  Kansas St.   #28  Cincy  #29  Illinois  #30  Louisville    

Next Tier (Rank #31 - 40)   

Wash St., UNLV, Arizona St., Washington, Michigan, Texas Tech, Wisconsin California, Oklahoma, Louisiana

Top 50 Material   

Tulane, California, Duke, VTECH, Michigan St., Nebraska, Arkansas, Memphis, B.C., Navy

Went 2 - 1 ATS/Totals (-0.5 U) but could not reel in my press play with Arkansas Under

------------------------------------------------------

Summary of Exotic Plays:

 Parlay > ML combo pays 2.02 > Tulane  with Clemson with UCF x 1U   Clemson shows they are a consecutive win streak fraud.....why are they rated higher than BYU, ARMY and INDIANA????

TEASER KEY: 7 PT > Army -16.5  (I believe this QB decision late was not to embarrass AF or another military division so I am very lucky   to get this ) Penn St. +11  with:

HALF U each pay 2.1  or extra HALF U per 5 wins

1. New Mexico 

2. Pitt +14.5   

3. Wisconsin +10.5  

4. Nebraska E  

5. Duke +27.5  

6. Liberty Under 70.5  

7. Indiana E   

8. Boise Over 50.5  

9. Minnesota +5  

10. Vandy +13.5   

11. Texas Tech +21.5  

7 - 4 on TEASERS (+2 U on TEASERS this week)

OVERALL = +$ 210 profit on exotics/sides

Overall Sides/Totals record at .500 or just under 

Down about $1100 on the season in overall betting ....still have work to do to be even or higher by bowls

Summary of Exotic Plays:

Parlay > ML combo pays 2.02 > Tulane  with Clemson with UCF x 1U

TEASER KEY: 7 PT > Army -16.5  (I believe this QB decision late was not to embarrass AF or another military division so I am very lucky   to get this ) Penn St. +11  with:

HALF U each pay 2.1  or extra HALF U per 5 wins

1. New Mexico 

2. Pitt +14.5

3. Wisconsin +10.5

4. Nebraska E

5. Duke +27.5  

6. Liberty Under 70.5  

7. Indiana E

8. Boise Over 50.5  

9. Minnesota +5  

10. Vandy +13.5

11. Texas Tech +21.5

Did this just before game time for Army team.....and had no idea about Army QB!! So grateful I did this

Back up for my TEASERS....winning margin plays on Army-AF

Army to win by 1-6 pts pays 7 to 1 = $30 bet  

Army to win by 7-12 pts pays 6.5 to 1 = $40 bet  

Army to win by 13-18 pts pays 5 to 1 = $50 bet  

Army to win by 19-24 pts pays 5 to 1 = $30 bet 

Congrats Buckeyes bettors! You win and I win my insta-TEASER play to +11 pts for PSU 

I like Ryan Day more than Franklin so I am doubly happy