Last2thirst

Going against the grain..... Yankees-Ariz Under 10 x HALF U

-one of the strongest UNDER umps and just have a hunch this will be a pitching dual as the Yankees are garnering some extra film time with their Torpedo bats and the D-backs might have figured out something

Play #2 - Minnesota ML x HALF U

- like Joe Ryan early in the season as he is usually very effective early in the season

-Houston is a weak hitting team and it is going to be quite cool /umpire tends to have a fairly high SO rate and era around 8.5 runs so with all the factors, I can see the home team giving the better pitcher more favor and letting the Twins batters heat up vs the visitor in their home opener

-Twins are streaking and my data shows that is the better way to go especially if I have the better pitcher

Looking ahead.....later games....lean OVER with Yankees and Under with Cincy-Milwaukee....just waiting to see umpire assignments

Suggestion on two early plays: - go Over on both for the following reasons.... I am going to go with Phillies Over 9.5 because of  the pitchers style ....Phillies Over 9.5 looks juicy given the fact both pitchers are fly ball types with a strong wind blowing to the outfield ... Tajuan Walker throws a mid level strike and if he cannot hit the low strike, he walks a lot of batters so Colorado should score some runs today....Senatazela does not inspire confidence to have back to back strong games pitching, especially vs a excellent Phillies lineup and the wind blowing out

-Wind blowing out 16 mph to right centre in both stadiums....right handed hitters will get a push behind their ball slapping at a fastball 

-Tanner Houck is a knuckleballer but with the high humidity his ball will dance so much more and I expect a lot of strikeouts by a Baltimore team that is a long ball hawking lineup 

-Boston does not hit for high avg yet...they are around .200 so far on the season so Charlier Morton will be zoned in to have a better outing..... 

Play #1 today - Phillies Over 9.5  x HALF U 

lean to Baltimore Under ....might do a parlay with something else

DUKE - FLORIDA final most likely but still feel Auburn has a decent shot here ..... take the points and if you feel Florida can win or keep it close, expect an UNDER with this amount of preparation in that Florida-Auburn game in my opinion....both teams know each other well and shots will not come easy or open shooters will not come with much time given what is on the line

AUBURN +2.5  << TEASE IT up to +7.5  

UNDER << like even more 

DUKE -5  (they won't lose to Houston! Great TEASER KEY)

Under Duke >> I see a 72 -62 type of game and Duke might only score 65 and if so, I don't expect Houston to make many 3 pt shots against Duke's defense!! Their size and foot speed on the perimeter will challenge Houston

 ...its been fun !   

Given the fact, that it appears that the data is beginning to show that short term streaks are the way to go in the beginning, I am going to EXTEND my streak limit to now 6 games for Overs, Unders, Winning or Losing streaks......this will better reflect the data but to go over this, might skew the data

Only teams that will not qualify for win or losing streak data tomorrow are Atlanta (losing), San Diego (winning) and LA Dodgers (winning)...

2 - 1 - 1 on the Day and a loss of $40 on exotics

What have I learned the last couple of days in my charting? 

- so far it seems, staying with a short term streak of 2 or 3 in a row of a team doing something like winning or going OVER or UNDER a total is holding if you bet the 3rd game or 4th game. I based this on the overall stats I am recording after 6 games now

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 Breakers: - last 2 days, plus the 6 game season record

a. Breaking Over Streaks > 2 day record = 4 - 10    >>  9 - 12 (season) ....stick with streak = 57.1% win rate

b. Breaking Under Streaks > 2 day record = 5 - 8  >>   14 - 19 (season) ...stick with streak = 57.6%

c. Breaking Win Streaks > 2 day record = 3 - 8   >>   8 - 16 (season) .... stick with win streak = 66.7%

d. Breaking Losing Streaks > 2 day record = 2 - 9  >>  6 - 18 (season) ... bet against loser streaker = 75% 

e. Lose 2 or 3 in a row to a Leftie > Win next game =  (season 2- 0)

Slowly, I am going to shift my betting patterns and also, start to look at umpire stats even more.....sometimes, I might fade a OVER ump who has had a lot of games that were very high scoring in a row.....do you think he wants to work an extra hour every night for no more pay and reduce his beer or wine drinking time??? 

Happy with my season record despite some tricky circumstances early on  9 - 8 - 1    + 1 UNIT  (-$40 exotic bets) 

Wednesday Results so far:

Cinci-Texas Under 8.5 x 1U 

 Under 7 Tampa - Pitt  x Half U  

 Parlay $40 > pays out Half U+ profit > TB +1.5 runline with Under 7.5 Milw   

Under 7 Twins- White Sox x HALF U     RAIN DELAY

 Under 8.5 x HALF U   << ALREADY!! 

-don't know how Taillon will fair here but I do know that the umpire is a massive UNDER umpy with 11 - 20 Over record last year and one game way UNDER already this year.....cool air in Oakland could be good with the umpire

Mid Afternoon plays:

 Under 8.5 x HALF U

-don't know how Taillon will fair here but I do know that the umpire is a massive UNDER umpy with 11 - 20 Over record last year and one game way UNDER already this year.....cool air in Oakland could be good with the umpire

Sorry....had this play ready an hour ago but forgot to send it ...sent it just now. I played it and with some local parlays too since my early plays are looking good 

Wednesday plays:

Cinci-Texas Under 8.5 x 1U 

-really like this play for the fact that Hunter Greene can carve them up when on and his history vs Texas batters is good

-supporting him and Jack Leiter from the long ball is a very strong > 15 mph wind blowing in from right field ....anything hit the other way to left field will produce a lot of spin as well so might be hard to hit the long ball today

-play is going against the OVER bias early in the year but the factors lined up give me comfort with 8.5 for a total

Note: Texas has only played one game over this total and their competition has been more formidable than Cincy

Under 7 Tampa - Pitt  x Half U

-Pitt rarely goes over this total

-two high strikeout pitchers with one dominant

-Pirates hitters are whiffing a lot > 10Ks vs Baz and Pepiot also has a high K - rate 

-Gibson the ump and can be finicky with strike zone so caution ..... 9.33 runs per game last year 15 - 14 Over

Parlay $40 > pays out Half U+ profit > TB +1.5 runline with Under 7.5 Milw << both pitchers are aces and have success vs teams 

Under 7 Twins- White Sox x HALF U 

-very strong 20 mph wind blowing in from right field

-Under ump with only 8.5 runs per game last year

-Pablo Lopez has never given up a home to White Sox

-Sean Burke with only 3 earned runs allowed in 25 innings in the majors....

Will comment some more later

2 - 1 tonight puts me on the season to  5 - 6 

Torpedo bat season is going to lead to new baseball records and I don't think baseball is going to mind. Just wait until the heat comes!!

OVER is going to be our diet in some situations. Will update results later tonight on BREAKERS ...I think I am getting a hang on how to bet them but I need to consistently get above .500 to confirm that

Tuesday:

Under 8 Mets - Marlins x HALF U

-Marlins will have issues hitting Senga 

-Alcantara had control issues but still managed 7 strikeouts with his 4 walks.....it they get to him, they will do it early because I expect him to establish his fastball in this game and then mix in 2nd ABs

Texas -1.5 x Half U - expecting Texas to light up this pitcher for the Reds and Eovaldi to take advantage of some keyed up batters who know he can bring it with his fast ball.... a little payback for last night and a role reversal in this game. I see a 9 - 3 or 7 - 2 type of score

-this Reds lineup do not hit Eovaldi well with no HRs and a low average

First two games out of the gate that I like right away and that is rare for me....digging for more

Arizona-Yanks Over 8.5 x Half U - strong wind blowing to right centre field to the short porch and this Yankee pitcher is a gas can

Tuesday Breakers: - will report on what I like later in the early evening before games begin

a. 6 teams that have a WIN streak of 2 or 3 > looking to fade or maybe ride one 

Breaker occurs here = only 40% of the time so far

b.   3 teams that have a LOSING streak of 2 or 3 > looking to see them break their streak

Breaker occurs here = only 30% of the time so far 

What do streaking teams teach us early? Ride them for decent success!

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c.   8 teams have gone OVER for 2 or 3 games in a row > looking to see them go UNDER today

Breaker occurs here = hitting 70% this season but the way the ball is jumping off the bat, I expect this number to regress but some teams today are back to their #1 pitcher in the rotation order 

d.   5 teams have gone UNDER for 2 or 3 games in a row > looking to see them go OVER today

Breaker occurs here = hitting 45% on the season but was  7 - 1 yesterday 

Will update this semi regularly going forward and you can tune in to see which angle is doing well as I might keep stats of trends for every 10 games possibly 

3rd or 4th Game Trend Breaker Records:

 a. Breaking Overs > next game UNDER = tonight = 1 - 2   >>  5 - 2 (season)

b. Breaking Unders > next game to go OVER =  tonight = 7 - 1  incredible !  >>   9 - 11 (season)

c. Breaking a Win Streak > fade the 3rd or 4th game = tonight = 3 - 3   >>   5 - 8 (season) 

d. Breaking a Losing Streak > take to win 3rd game or 4th game after 2-3 losses = tonight = 2 - 4  >>  4 - 9 (season)

e. Lose 2 or 3 in a row to a Leftie > Win next game = tonight =  2 - 0  (season 2- 0)

Still only betting gut plays with some of these streaks so once the numbers become more refined, I will still to mostly BREAKERS... 

[Quote: Originally Posted by Last2thirst]My early play just blew up.....going for UNDER 8.5 St. Louis x HALF U as my other favorite play of the day[/Quote

0 - 2 day.... in process of doing an analysis and results...will report tonight or in the morning

My early play just blew up.....going for UNDER 8.5 St. Louis x HALF U as my other favorite play of the day

Play #1  Monday - Milwaukee Under  8.5 x HALF U

Housekeeping:

Teaser 5 pt. $30 each: (return $33 profit per)

Alabama +12 with Florida -1.5 with Auburn -0.5  

Duke -2 with FLorida -1.5 with Auburn - 0.5  

Under Tenn 128.5 with Alabama +12 with Florida -1.5  

Under Tenn 128.5 with Alabama +12 with Auburn 0.5  

Under Tenn 128.5 with Florida -1.5 with Auburn -0.5  

Under Tenn 128.5 with Duke -2 with Florida -1.5  

Under Tenn 128.5 with Duke with Auburn -0.5  

Tenn +8.5 with all 5 same combos above directly above   

= $360 in 12 Teasers  >> got back $132 

Expensive week !

March Tourney Record now =  9 - 7 ATS/Totals  (+$300)

Exotic Bets:  = -$300 

I am dead even on Tourney betting .....not good

3rd or 4th Game Trend Breaker Records:

a. Breaking Overs > next game UNDER =   4 - 0 

b. Breaking Unders > next game to go OVER =   2 - 10  << much harder to play an Over

c. Breaking a Win Streak > fade the 3rd or 4th game =  2 - 5

d. Breaking a Losing Streak > take to win 3rd game or 4th game after 2-3 losses =  2 - 5

Too early to tell what can work.....but if you were looking for Unders and staying with win or loss streaks, you were likely making good $$ these past couple of days!

Let's see where the data takes us to next Sunday

On watch for these trend breaks of 3rd or 4th game in a trend :

Padres to go Over

Dodgers to Lose

Dodgers to go Under

Milwaukee win

Milwaukee Under

Pittsburgh Win

St. Louis Lose

Miami Lose

Miami lose to lefthander

Atlanta Over

Mets Over

Houston Over

LA Angels Lose

La Angels Over

Seattle Over

Texas Lose

Oakland Over

White Sox Win 

White Sox Over

Tigers Win

Tigers Under

Minnesota Win

Red Sox Win

Yankees Under

Yankees Lose

Plenty of angles to consider > will be looking for 1-3 plays from those above to either break or go along with a trend like I did today with the Yankees Over and Seattle Under..... the matchup analytics will guide me. Once I have enough data on Breaking Trends statistics....will act on it more closely

2 - 1 today > puts me at 3 - 3 on the season

More importantly, the patterns I am looking at are providing some situational spots to bet and laying off other hunches because in reality and baseball, that is what they are and giving away juice chasing faves is a losing proposition

Pattern Analysis Recap later...