Last2thirst

I got a couple of PICK3's to claw some money back

I had #7 on one ticket in the last race but did not get #8 in the Second Race.....that one was tough to watch

Saturday night - strong WSW wind in their face off the gate and final stretch....it will be difficult for closers but horses who are 2nd or 1st over will get a push on the last turn

JMAC/HENRY /CULLEN are good first or second over

-McNair and Roy should have a good night on the front end 

Race 1 - non-winners race and 6 horses have a strong case to win

Play >  245789

Race 2 - KEY #1

Long ...add JMAC horse #4

Race 3 - 4578

Maybe > 36

Race 4 - 1246

Maybe 78

Race 5 -

Probably doing one ticket with these and mixing in PICK3s with longshots and maybes....BOL

Rest of the night games:

Play #8 Over Gonzaga 141.5 x HALF U

-Zags will dictate the pace and calls from the refs ... I can see a 75-69 type of score or higher

-I have seen scores in the past around 130 pts with 2-3 minutes to play balloon up to over 145 with these 2 teams....strong rivalry and they foul right up to the end of the match regardless of score because they always want to play their opponent closely

Play #9 Montana St - 1.5 x 1U

-strong rivalry + strong double correlation for the favorite usually implies a home win in this case

Have a good night and if you like horses (standardbreds with harness), come over to my Harness thread with a PICK5 being handicapped for Race #1 - 5 tonight.... 

Saturday Play #1 - Texas AM - Tennessee OVER 130.5 x 1U  

Play #2 - Liberty -13 x Half U   push!

Play #3 - StoneyBr - NC At+T Over 134.5 x HALF U   

Play #4 - Citadel +19.5 x HALF U   

Play #5 - Mercer +3.5 x 1 U  

Good start to the day.... 3 - 1 - 1  (+1U)

......capping 7 - 8 pm games now because I am capping Mohawk Harness on my horse thread after 

4pm - 6 pm games:

Play #6 - Okie St +14.5  x HALF U  

-double fade correlation

- teams ranked 21-40 (Kansas) are 13 - 20 ATS as favorites when facing a team ranked 91 - 120th ....but it gets worse when they face a spread of -11 to -15.5 >> they are just 5 - 21 ATS vs this spread area 

Play #7 - Nevada -1 x HALF U 

-very powerful double correlation with a team ranked in the 60's beating teams in the 40-45 rank percentile like Boise to the tune of 9 - 2 ATS 

Teaser 5pts: HALF U

- SJSU St +10 with Okie St +19.5 with Radford Over 129

$30

- Seattle +10.5 with Okie St +19.5 with Radford Over 129 with UCRiver Under 165.5

- Houston Chri. +7 with Okie St +19.5 with Norfolk - 8.5 with UCRiver Under 165.5

-Akron Under 171.5 with SJSU +10 with Texas St +3 with Texas Southern -19

Saturday Play #1 - Texas AM - Tennessee OVER 130.5 x 1U

- DR ratings highest TOTAL prediction underlay (by over 10 pts!) > they think the total should be over 140!

- going to try them out because their ratings have been strong for my correlations all year and took the time to check out their predictions....this one stood out by far (going to try them out in the last few weeks + do my own double correlations, leading up to March Madness)

-games at noon.....tends to not be really low scoring I find (not this low)

Play #2 - Liberty -13 x Half U 

-strong double correlation for spread with rank zones between opponents in my spreadsheet

Play #3 - StoneyBr - NC At+T Over 134.5 x HALF U

-DR ratings has a prediction result above 145 total for this one 

Play #4 - Citadel +19.5 x HALF U 

-strong Double FADE of favourite correlation against Chattanooga

Play #5 - Mercer +3.5 x 1 U 

-my strongest Double Fade of the early afternoon so far

-according to my chart, teams that are ranked like UNC Greensboro in the 150 = 190th percentile are 25 - 40 ATS versus a 260th ranked opponent like Mercer and also, when a line is -3 to -5.5 for the favorite, the success rate is just 21 - 53 - 3 ATS as a spread 

- take the home dog here!!!

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These are strong plays I feel up to 3 pm today.....will have some more later

Thanks Fuse 

Might play some horses instead. Weather has been terrible last couple of weeks but not tonight!!

1 - 1 and gave back 1.5 Units

South Dakota once again proves it is a great home court! But not good enough to go OVER that number ....

Really like one other game tonight with a great home court especially when playing a similar rank or sometimes beating a slightly better team...

Denver -3 x 1U

-Oral Roberts is 0 - 13 ATS on the road !

Play #1 Wednesday - OVER 175.5 St Thomas -South Dakota x 2.5U ($300)

-when these two teams played in their first game at St. Thomas, they scored 200+ pts easily

-South Dakota is consistently a 90 pt scoring home team when playing a good offensive team

-St Thomas offense is one of the best in college for shooting and temp.....this game is going to be a track meet and scoring fest easily going over this number 

I will look for more later tomorrow....but this is a real chance to grab some easy UNITS in my opinion. I made +2.5 U tonight so what the hell eh? 

 Thanks  Xdodge

Yes, they have been sneaky good. They are ranked #170 in my ratings facing a team ranked #339th and my correlation charts lead to a ranking bias of 30 - 11 ATS for the favorite no matter the spread when these rank zones tend to meet (151st - 190th rank vs 331st or worse) since Conference Play began on Jan 1 

-teams also ranked 151- 190th were hitting 4 - 0 ATS when a favorite of -16 to -20.5 .....make that 5 - 0 now so yes, a very powerful double correlation hit tonight for me and I am happy that you got it too and if its your team, that is even better!

GL the rest of the season 

Tuesday:  2 - 0  + 2.5U ... just keep grinding on best correlations and the work I put into it...no hunching

North Alabama -16.5 is another I played with a double correlation x HALF U .....it has the highest % success vs a team ranked over 330th

Only strong double correlation I see is Colorado St -3.5 at home vs Nevada >>> x 1U

Still looking for another ...if not, good enough

Monday Summary:

My play of the day > Southern -7 x 2U  

-Duke -13 (1.7) with Over 130.5 (1.74) parlay > HALF U   

Howard -12.5 x HALFU  

Under 147.5 x 1U   (missed it by a half a point)

Teasers: - $150

Despite Teaser give back....made 1U ($120) overall on the night 

Thanks Rum  Its a lot of work but fun too and has mostly proven profitable except for January .... I was in Top 10-30 but fell by the wayside when my data charts no longer worked in Conference Play. I had to re-construct them to learn what tended to work at higher %'s

This is the first year recording every line result and I think I am also going to do this in baseball with my own twist with each league and scoring.... rankings and maybe a temperature correlation with scoring

TEASER 5 PTS: Miss Valley St UNDER 143 with NC Central -3.5 with Southern -2 x HALF U 

and 4 way plays for $30 (pay HALF U profit) > same above with:

East TexasAM +9.5

Lamar +6 

SC Carolina St -11.5

My play of the day > Southern -7 x 2U .... BEAT T-South already by 9 on the road and being a team that is 100 ranks lower than their visitor, I won't expect an ambush because Southern already held them to under 59 pts and won't mind an uptempo game in their building with refs tending to assist the home team

-Duke -13 (1.7) with Over 130.5 (1.74) is a nice parlay > HALF U 

- This Virginia team is about 5-10 pts weaker on defense this year and Duke is working on their offense running up some scores which they will need vs SEC and BIG10 teams in the big tourney

Howard -12.5 x HALFU

Under 147.5 x 1U

Knew I was meh on the day...made $360 profit yesterday and today I bet $360 >  Got one chance to make back $90 with one play open.... degenerate curse....just making action means losses usually