LB_Dirtbags

Forgot to add one thing about tempo… 2 fast paced teams won the Championship vs 2 other fast tempo style teams…I believe Zags and North Carolina were the opponents…top of my head….HOUSTON is the 5the slowest team in the country!

Houston Cougars ML -105 (LARGE)

Tough to cap, but going off history & KP numbers that is pretty interesting along with player matchup….

Will Florida be the 3rd team to lose in the 1st rd of the previous tourney and come back to win it all the following year???

Only 2 teams have ever lost the 1st round of the tourney and come back to win it all the following year. The 64’ UCLA Bruins & 19’ Virginia Cavaliers…& we all know what got Virginia there…Defense, focus, and will power. 

Want more?…

Florida has a rating of #59 in KP tempo. Only 2 teams in the last 10 years have won the title that plays with a fast tempo….the rest had 100+ in rating metrics… going past that 10 years? Np..4 teams in 20 years! 

Player matchup…

Who’s got Clayton? Assuming it’ll be Sharp, and have to assume Wilson. Looked up his numbers vs a good defensive team in Tennessee…shot poorly 3 of 4 games… best game was most recent…7/18 FG & 4/11 3pt…let’s go back 3 games vs the Vols… 9/41 FG (21%) and 4/22 3pt (18%)!!!!

For Florida to win they’re going to need help from the 2 other guards..Martin or Richard…Richard vs Vols doesn’t look crispy either… 6/16 FG (27%) and Martin? Had to look up how he played vs North Texas….prob the one X factor on Florida that played semi good vs Vols and avg vs North Texas…. 

Numbers are good identifiers and these numbers for Florida doesn’t look great vs good defenses…and we all know Houston’s defense is far greater than of Tennessee….

Enjoy the game and thanks for all the feedback. Can’t wait to return for the March Madness 2026!

25-13 LARGE ATS in March.

@KC_4_LIFE

Thank you sir. Houston is a very special team. They won with focus & will power.  Unbelievable how Coach Sampson recruited these non 5 star guys and got this far. We need more teams like Houston. 

@NutinButtLove

 Agree. I think UConn wins, but by a smaller margin.

South Carolina +6.5 (small)

Got up 2 hours ago to study the Florida/Houston game some. Matchups, schedules, etc…found something very intriguing with past Champions. I’ll share it on tomorrow’s post….

Had a few minutes to look over the today’s Championship game I respect a ton. 

Why SC? SC took a beat down earlier in the season to UConn ending their 71 HOME WIN STREAK. I told myself that if these 2 ever meet in the tourney again it’ll be a much better outcome. Here we are. 

Amazing 2 games. Time to celebrate like hell. See you all Monday. 

Why is there always someone posting this type question?!?!?

What a great day to be alive…tough to beat a nice cup of coffee on Final Four day.

My thoughts on Florida/Auburn….

Auburn’s weakness is their ability to play with tough physical teams. They have offensive “tendencies”. If you get up on their face and push them around, they play at your level…I.e Tennessee 2X, A&M, Iowa State, Houston all are these physically gifted  defensive teams…all either beat Auburn or kept up a close game…the difference? Florida’s offense. Auburn won’t be able to slo them down unfortunately. I’m not sure what the hype is with Bruce Pearl, but I’m not sold on the guy. There hasn’t been anything he said that really stood out to me…heard him talk a few times about “trust” in the huddle and interviews…every1 know that simple rule…kind of makes me wonder if there’s issues with the team? Also Broome is a go, but how much trust can you put in him with that shoulder? Especially with how physical Florida is down low. No play at the time, but prob sprinkle a little on Florida -2.5.

Right now Florida & Houston are the 2 best teams based on eye test. 

GLTA & enjoy the games….

@GMAN2100

$RKLB will do better in 3-5 years. Mark my words.  

Houston Cougars ML +235 (LARGE)

Biggest Dog ML Wager for the tourney & prob my March Madness plays…. and here are reason why….

Stop the #1 assist man…Flag (4.2 apg)

-Roberts or Tugler will be assigned to guard Cooper Flagg. Huge difference vs his last 2 defenders…Nelson from Bama & Townsend/Bryant from AZ…Lol….Duke has no true PG that can facilitate the floor…similar to Zags Nembhard or Purdue’s Smith…2 guards that kept their team in the game speed/vision…Flag is good but he’s being asked to facilitate like a true PG and score….to much on his plate vs a defense like Houston….yikes!

-Duke loves driving the ball down the low post…Knueppel loves to use his quickness & body to the short block from the right or left wing…Flagg loves shots in around the paint….the length and physicality of these Houston bigs is one of kind…Nowhere near what AZ or Bama does. Easy shots for Duke will be tough. 

-Duke is one of the tallest teams in college…maybe the #1 tallest? They get a ton of offensive boards and 2nd shot opportunities.  Do you think they can do what they do to other teams with rebounding vs Houston? Small chance imo. 

-Duke has defense. NC and Clemson are the next best offensive teams in the ACC on KP..#21 & #27…both these teams scored in the 70s…the rest of the ACC offensively is as my kids would say “dog water”…..Auburn put up 78, Zona 93…Bama was an Outlier period! this defense is overhyped imo.

March ATS LARGE 24-13 (64%)

LFG…can’t wait. 

@gambling-devil

Some great buys if you’re a long term investor. This fear will be short lived. Also added some $VG…

REITs, Regional banking are also some great dividend stocks…

*BW COY 4X last 10 years. Would be surprised if he doesn’t get promoted after securing a win. 

*4+ Seniors that have played together.

*PG is Chattanooga transfer…assuming he has some familiarity with their scheme. 

UCI -3 ( Medium )

Big fan of the Big West. Coach Turner is a great coach and his veteran group will be a tough out.

Bought more $RKLB today. BOL.

@LVTruck

Slight lean on Auburn…State has the better coach, but freshman guard, 30% from deep ain’t getting you to the Final 4. I also think State’s Copper and Kohler will be exposed by Auburn’s better 4/5 spot….

@haymo

Laying off & enjoying a profitable day. 
Should be a great game. 

Houston -3 (LARGE)

FYI…Added extra units on the side…by far my favorite play of Elite 8….have this line closer to -5.5…a beat down by dd wouldn’t surprise me one bit…

My thoughts…Mayshack is the most elite/physical defender on the Vols…the difference is Houston’s front court is 3X that of his physicality and skill set. I also feel like Houston’s defense will play much smoother considering Lanier is the only real offensive threat on the Vols. 

To add Houston schedule to get here is much harder than the Vols…Zags, Purdue vs UCLA, UK….

Both dogs are solid plays imo…TT and Bama will be a challenge for both #1 teams… Senior guards for both squads have fight…+ McMillan looks like a go for TT,  and team can rebound for a smaller team. On the other hand Bama will be the toughest offensive team Duke has faced…they’re great at playing when hey get a big lead…Bama doesn’t back down even when their down by 10… one of these 1 seeds go down today….wouldn’t suprise me if both go down…

Texas Tech +7 (LARGE)

Tech ML +300 (xs)

Bama + 7 (LARGE)

Bama ML +275 (xs)

Title should obviously read: Bama/Duke…

$RKLB

Cougs -8.5 (LARGE)

Back from a long week off…hoping to  pick up were I left off…

Hate laying this many, but Kaufman-Renn is facing the most dominant defense in the paint. Purdue physically dominated their 1st 2 opponents, but Houston is an entirely different beast. 

$GLTA…long on $RKLB 

xs plays…

CSU +8 (xs)

CSU ML +275 (xs)

MSU -7.5 (xs)

UK +2 (xs)

UConn +9.5 (LARGE)

UConn ML +400 (small)

It wouldn’t shock me if UConn wins this straight up. Florida in my eyes looks great from outside…athletic, fast big, & strong….but sometimes it’s the fundamental of the game thats critical in tourney games… 1/2 court offense, hard picks, boxing out, and most importantly the teacher that echoes those principles…

Imo Florida is that nice new fancy car everyone is eyeing, while UConn is that beat up yet reliable Honda Civic that you’ve had for years that no one wants.

I think UConn puts up a good fight today.
As always, tail cautiously..