LippyLeans

I’ll probably change my mind 50 times over the next 24 hours and then not even take a side, BUT here’s my $0.02 

I’ve heard some people try to spin the narrative that Boston will want to get up for this game. Clearly this team is bored and a little bit cocky. From Jaylen Brown comments to the defensive stats to even their record of 11-3 which includes a loss to the hawks without Trae, it’s obvious to anyone who is paying attention that this team is not serious right now. You can’t exactly blame them given how easily they ran through competition last year, but that’s the concern with a team trying to repeat. They should face more difficult competition this year (at the very least in the finals, should they return) and we’ve already seen a lack of focus. It’s a long season, but so far they have not been the aggressors as Mazzula was saying and that is a hole in the armour of the league’s most talented team. 

The #1 thing I am always trying to sort out when I cap games is how much each team cares about this specific game in particular. Can the Celtics win? Of course. Can Cleveland? Of course. This could be a dd victory for either team and I would not be surprised. 

Cleveland’s motivation is obvious and almost overwhelming;

- undefeated so far. Clearly want to keep that going as long as possible. 
- game against the defending champs and clear #1 team. Great chance to prove themselves. 
^ Show the importance of this game by resting Mitchell the game before and bringing Mobley back so he’s not rusty for that game. 
- it’s on a smaller scale but let’s also note that this is a cup game. Boston is already 0-1 because of that loss to the hawks. Cleveland is 1-0 with a +18 PD. I think cup motivation leans heavily in favour of a team like the Cavs, rather than a team coming off a league championship. 

What’s the motivation for Boston?

- Be the team to end the streak. > I would like this angle more if Cleveland was headed towards breaking some Boston record but they’re not. 
- Re-assert themselves at the top of the EC. > Even if they win this game, they will still be in 2nd and they’ve already shown they don’t care as much about regular season. 
- Get back in the running for the cup. > as I said earlier, I’m just not sure a team that’s been to the top so recently cares. We probably would have seen a better effort in their first game if they did. 

Gimme the Cavs. 

I’ll probably change my mind 50 times over the next 24 hours and then not even take a side, BUT here’s my $0.02 

I’ve heard some people try to spin the narrative that Boston will want to get up for this game. Clearly this team is bored and a little bit cocky. From Jaylen Brown comments to the defensive stats to even their record of 11-3 which includes a loss to the hawks without Trae, it’s obvious to anyone who is paying attention that this team is not serious right now. You can’t exactly blame them given how easily they ran through competition last year, but that’s the concern with a team trying to repeat. They should face more difficult competition this year (at the very least in the finals, should they return) and we’ve already seen a lack of focus. It’s a long season, but so far they have not been the aggressors as Mazzula was saying and that is a hole in the armour of the league’s most talented team. 

The #1 thing I am always trying to sort out when I cap games is how much each team cares about this specific game in particular. Can the Celtics win? Of course. Can Cleveland? Of course. This could be a dd victory for either team and I would not be surprised. 

Cleveland’s motivation is obvious and almost overwhelming;

- undefeated so far. Clearly want to keep that going as long as possible. 
- game against the defending champs and clear #1 team. Great chance to prove themselves. 
^ Show the importance of this game by resting Mitchell the game before and bringing Mobley back so he’s not rusty for that game. 
- it’s on a smaller scale but let’s also note that this is a cup game. Boston is already 0-1 because of that loss to the hawks. Cleveland is 1-0 with a +18 PD. I think cup motivation leans heavily in favour of a team like the Cavs, rather than a team coming off a league championship. 

What’s the motivation for Boston?

- Be the team to end the streak. > I would like this angle more if Cleveland was headed towards breaking some Boston record but they’re not. 
- Re-assert themselves at the top of the EC. > Even if they win this game, they will still be in 2nd and they’ve already shown they don’t care as much about regular season. 
- Get back in the running for the cup. > as I said earlier, I’m just not sure a team that’s been to the top so recently cares. We probably would have seen a better effort in their first game if they did. 

Gimme the Cavs. 

For the record, this is false. Atlanta has a one game lead right now so they don’t have to win to have a shot. As long as Washington and Chicago lose, they are still in no matter what happens in their own game. 

I was just about to say, feels like the Mystics always play the Liberty tough. They certainly have plenty to play for and shouldn’t be intimidated by the matchup.  BOL jduke

LA has been (properly) playing possum and has recently locked up the best odds in the 2025 lottery. They’ve lost 7 in a row, but the last two were single digit losses to Seattle and the most recent was a one possession loss on the road. 

It’s okay for them to win now and indications are that they want to. Their remaining games are vs.PHX and @MIN. Their longest losing streak of the season has been 8 games. If they lose their final home game of the season tonight, there’s a very goo chance they finish the season by breaking their own losing streak record for the year. 

For the record, Minnesota has the tiebreaker with NYL as of their most recent win so they could still be playing for something in that final game. 

Phoenix is 5-8 since the Olympic break. They have only beaten two teams: Chicago and Atlanta. Third game out for Copper. Phoenix isn’t playing for anything (except maybe to avoid the shame of finishing under .500). Fever swept the season series with them so Merc are locked in at 7. 

Despite PHX 3-0 record vs. LA this season, every game has been closer than the last. 19 point loss in LA, 14 point loss in PHX, 6 point loss in PHX. 

I struggle to see how Phoenix will come close to matching the LA energy tonight. Without Copper, I don’t even think the talent discrepancy here is that large and Sparks have the bodies to deal with Griner. 

LA SPARKS +3 (-110)

LA SPARKS ML (+130)

LA SPARKS -5 (+225)

BOL basketballers 

Personally, I am not a fan of adding a big favourite like Seattle to a parlay or really making that wager in any way shape or form but that’s just what works for me. You may have found success with this sort of strategy so I’m not here to sway you on that.

Or anything, for that matter. But since you asked, the leg I’d be most worried about is Chicago. 

Biggest game of the season for Washington. They trail Chicago for that 8th playoff spot by 2 games. A win tonight puts them a game behind with only four left to play and makes them 3-1 in the season series (for tie breaking purposes). They also follow up this game with a double date against Atlanta. Even if I think they split that series, at best, Washington has to look at this stretch of 3 games against the two teams ahead of them in the standings as a great opportunity and that all starts tonight. 

Conversely, a loss for Washington tonight basically eliminates them at 3 games back with 4 games left. I won’t be stepping in front of that desperation tonight. More likely I will have some money on the Mystics to win and keep their playoff hopes alive. 

2-1 +3.3

Aug 31

(+210) SEA/o154.5

Agreed on the split, at minimum. I think they pick up a win today too. BOL

Two of those games were against NYL. The other was against ATL. Not the best sample but Connecticut averaged 70.6666 points in these games.

Sun just hit 14. 3 more than their previous season high of 11.  

Seattle flying cross country for this one but that should have happened yesterday with the day off. Connecticut much shorter travel but also much less time with less than 20 hours between end of last game and start of this one  

Big name injuries can really mess with things. I’m expecting AT to suit up, but I don’t think she’ll be 100%. 

Waiting on that announcement to pull the trigger but I’m really liking Seattle here and lean towards the over despite the expected regression from deep for Sun. 

I think I’m sitting out tonight, at least for the early games. 

For what it’s worth, Chicago really has no business keeping up with Indiana tonight. Mabrey in Connecticut and Carter on the shelf. The problem is that this league has been blatant with their attempts to convince people the Rookie of the Year race isn’t over. It is and has been for weeks if not months. This is the last time Angel and CC will play this season. I don’t feel like stepping in the way of ratings. 

I might throw some pocket change on Reese o14.5pts/o14.5rebs (+300) 

or ladder bet the first half with Indy, but no posted SGP tonight. 

2. You probably know that Tina Charles is out tonight. I’m very curious to see how Atlanta does without her. She’s been doing everything for them in that 4-1-1 stretch. Parker Tyus still on the shelf so we’ve got Coffey most likely entering the starting lineup tonight and maybe some minutes opening up for Amihere. 

I don’t consider Atlanta to be a deep team and the drop off in ability from Tina to any of these other healthy bigs is massive 

@Hulk_Hogan

@jdukes0004

 You said it. We’ve all been on the wrong side of the foul game before. Bball gods had my back tonight. 

@Jimbo83

 Thank you sir. Ridiculous shot making in the first half. Thought the under was dead for sure. Second half played out perfectly. 

@westlake888

@ZipYourLib

 Not sure you even read the OP. You bring up the Sun win over NYL and the Sun record vs IND this season as if they weren’t both addressed in the original post. It could be a difference in capping style, but I side with jduke on the idea that it’s much more difficult to sweep a regular season series against a team than it is to pick up a win after losing 3 straight. I also side with him on the idea that CON will have a letdown after finally beating NYL. Regardless of what happens tonight, in the long run you need to buy low and sell high. This is the highest the Sun have been after finally beating NYL. Time to sell. Especially on the road and especially against a team they’ve beaten three times already this season. 

The Fever are not struggling to make the postseason. Chicago and Atlanta are battling for that 8 spot, but Indiana is clearly in. 

Your general stats about this season series conveniently cover up the fact that the last time they played in Indiana it was just a 4 point victory for Connecticut  and they were held to 40% from the floor. 

Yes, Connecticut has rest on their side coming in, or could it be rust? 3 days off and 2 more after this? So they just got the monkey off their back with the Liberty upset and now they only play 1 game in a six day span. Wouldn’t surprise me if they lack some focus on the road in that situation.

Aug. 28th

(+250) IND+3.5/u165.5

BOL Basketballers 

Mystics are a completely different team now than they’ve been all season. Shakira Austin and Brittney Sykes (easily 2 of their 3 best players) are finally healthy and playing inspired basketball. I don’t know if they can keep it up but if ever they were going to win 3 in a row this season, this is their chance. 

Best of luck tonight.