LocksmithSports

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replied to Locksmith NFL in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by FoCo: Been following your plays ..... Much respect tailed you on the jets. I am getting Denver at -3 do you think I should lay the extra juice and take the ML I really like Denver but do think it'll be a close game I have a ton of outs that I use like friends in Vegas that can place bets for me, offshore, locals. I typically get good lines when i bet my personal stuff - sometimes better than what Ive posted on here because a lot of people can't get the same. In this case, 3 is the most key number in football betting, especially in NFL. If I were you at 3 it's still a good bet, but I'd cut it back personally to 2 dimes, instead of 3. View Post \| View Thread	LocksmithSports	37	January 01, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Locksmith NFL in NFL Betting 3 Dimes - Denver -1 Chiefs strength of their secondary and pass rush will be nullified in this game as the Broncos impose their will on the ground vs. a poor Chief rush D with nothing to play for. It's a battle of wills when you run the ball and one team here is at home, runs it well, and wants it more. Clutch player at QB for the Broncos that has excelled in big game situations and big spots his whole life, while the other has floundered to mediocrity and a .500 career win %. Chiefs have scored 13 points or less in 7 of their past 8, and have not cracked 20 points in 8 straight games. This style game plays right into the Broncos hands, and the mile high thin air and running game will wear down a Chief team that was eliminated from playoff contention last week and is much better at Arrowhead than away from it. View Post \| View Thread	LocksmithSports	37	January 01, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Locksmith NFL in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by nakadinhi: Just from a site that indicates where the SUPPOSED money is coming on which can be manipulated I'm sure.. Thanks so much for your response and insight... trying to slowly get a grasp of this and your openness in sharing what you know is much appreciated.. Just curious. So on these sites that claim to share where the money is coming in on: 1. Are they sportsbooks? If not, do they advertise for sportsbooks? You could see a potential conflict of interest here right? 2. If they're not sportsbooks, are they taking real money? Real money is different than "play money". For example, I may say the Rams are going to upset the Packers outright with play money, but am I going to put real money on that? 3. Is it automatic and "formula-driven", what if the formula or coding is broken? 4. What if that particular sample size isn't very big, say 30 people's bets are represented. View Post \| View Thread	LocksmithSports	37	January 01, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Locksmith NFL in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by Area51: Lock, thanks yesterday on the answer to my question. I hav tried to explain how some big betters will on purpose try to move a line and jump bigger on the other side. What they play to move is just a cost of business. They will find "their out" that move the line and use that. Or sometimes just to flush out who is passing their plays. But I may be wrong. Agree. This was unmasked in the Billy Walters Dateline or 20/20 Special I believe and made more of the public aware on how that happens. When the dust settles you just don't know which line move is the final one and which is the manipulation. You start chasing steam and your head will spin until you are so confused on what to bet, you start flipping coins. View Post \| View Thread	LocksmithSports	37	January 01, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Locksmith NFL in NFL Betting In other words....any time I see what you would call "reverse line movement" or a "trap" for me that just means all of the small bets are coming in large amounts on one side, and the higher money bets are coming in on the other. Again, there are some dummies out there that have their share of money, too. I went in with a partner and booked bets for a guy who owned a concrete company and put a $25,000 cap on him. Multi, multi millionaire. No sports background. Bet his $25,000 a game recreationally and couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat. If he walked into a Vegas casino and unloaded a big bet, he could potentially move a line in a hurry. You can't over-analyze this stuff you're going to drive yourself nuts. View Post \| View Thread	LocksmithSports	37	January 01, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Locksmith NFL in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by nakadinhi: thanks Locksmith... a question for you... when the public bets are coming heavy on one side, yet the line moves against that money (ie.. let's say heavy on Houston at -3, yet line drops to -1) what are the books trying to trick you into..all the play is going on Tenn or that they are looking for more Houston play even though all the money is already on Houston..? BOL today and thanks for your insights 1. How do you know FOR SURE where all of the bets are coming in on? Do you book bets? I'd honestly like to hear your thoughts on that. 2. Let's say you are booking bets. And you have 100 Dummies bet their $100. So that's $10,000 on one team. All of the action is coming in on that side. And then a group comes in and puts one $25,000 bet on the other side. Which way would you move the line? Are they trying to "trick" you? View Post \| View Thread	LocksmithSports	37	January 01, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Locksmith NFL in NFL Betting 5-2, +$4,300 1PM - Dime - NY Jets +3 No Jake Long at LT, no Reggie Bush at RB, and a QB in Matt Moore who will struggle to decipher Jet blitz schemes without his 2 best offensive players. View Post \| View Thread	LocksmithSports	37	January 01, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Locksmith New Year's Eve Bowl Thread in College Football Quote Originally Posted by Area51: What if any weight do you give line movement? Any what site do you use for watching/use? I don't care about line movement. Everyone was chasing steam yesterday and lost. I've seen Floyd Mayweather walk into a sportsbook numerous times and drop a few hundred K on a game. Is he a sharp or a pro? No, he's a dummy, but he'll move the heck out of a line. Then all of the dummies out there chase the line movement thinking some syndicate just hit a line hard. Keep it simple and cap the game. Dummies have money too and can move a line just the same. And even Billy Walters loses plenty of his bets. Or you even have a guy like Billy Walters drop a big bet on a game just to move a line in his favor and then hit the other side even harder. All the steam chasers out there start yelling trap and conspiracy. View Post \| View Thread	LocksmithSports	57	December 31, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Locksmith New Year's Eve Bowl Thread in College Football Quote Originally Posted by Teaser78: which one of those 3 is your strongest play ... thanks Like 'em all the same. Just looking to go 2-1 today and make a profit. View Post \| View Thread	LocksmithSports	57	December 31, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Locksmith New Year's Eve Bowl Thread in College Football Quote Originally Posted by IceburgSlim: hey locksmith congrats on your success so far. do you cap nfl too? Yes I do. Will post those on gameday in the NFL forum View Post \| View Thread	LocksmithSports	57	December 31, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Locksmith New Year's Eve Bowl Thread in College Football Quote Originally Posted by bigslickk: This seems a little fishy...."long time lurker" all of a sudden appears out of the blue when a guy comes from nowhere and goes on a mini run. Great job the last two days Locksmith but when you see posts like these it really makes you wonder... Are you suggesting some kind of conspiracy now, too? I really just want to focus on talking football. View Post \| View Thread	LocksmithSports	57	December 31, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Locksmith New Year's Eve Bowl Thread in College Football Dime - Vanderbilt -1.5 Vanderbilt's Game of the Year comes vs. a mid-major program. Dime - Virginia +3 Virginia's D in their Game of the Year vs. an Auburn team in disarray and with no motivation. Today's plays: Dime - Utah +2 Dime - Vanderbilt -1.5 Dime - Virginia +3 View Post \| View Thread	LocksmithSports	57	December 31, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Locksmith New Year's Eve Bowl Thread in College Football Dime - Vanderbilt -1.5 Vanderbilt's Game of the Year comes vs. a mid-major program. View Post \| View Thread	LocksmithSports	57	December 31, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Locksmith New Year's Eve Bowl Thread in College Football Quote Originally Posted by jefff: everyone loves utah including Lang. not sure he's won a bowl game yet outside of a teaser on wash/over gl Can't say I love 'em as it's a below avg play for me, but I think this is a long term winner. View Post \| View Thread	LocksmithSports	57	December 31, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Locksmith New Year's Eve Bowl Thread in College Football Avg bet size 2 dimes 1 Dime - Utah +2 Whittingham top 5 bowl coach in football. Tons of experience facing triple option from playing Air Force over the years and always shut them down. Utes struggled in their opening season in the Pac-12, and playing Ga Tech's triple option will take them back to their Mountain West days when they dominated. View Post \| View Thread	LocksmithSports	57	December 31, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Locksmith New Year's Eve Bowl Thread in College Football Quote Originally Posted by jmj8829: Good job yesterday! Congrats on the 4-0 sweep. I do well for myself, but been doing this long enough to know plenty of losing days are ahead, too. Have swept the board countless times and it never gets old! GL today View Post \| View Thread	LocksmithSports	57	December 31, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Locksmith New Year's Eve Bowl Thread in College Football I just want to let that other thread from yesterday die down and keep this thread for today's stuff. 4-0, +$5,500 since joining this site. No play on AM/Northwestern Like Northwestern but not with Texas A/M homefield advantage. I have NW keeping this within the 3 point range, but homefield like this can cause one turnover that sends the crowd into a frenzy with momentum and all of the sudden your bet gets blown up. Persa is not a turnover machine, but he's good for 1 a game, and that may be all A/M needs to get the crowd going and the party started. Also not sure on the status of Cyrus Gray for A/M and with him questionable/banged up and no Christine Michael, not sure how the A/M running game will be. View Post \| View Thread	LocksmithSports	57	December 31, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Ex Pro & Bookie on Rutgers Today in College Football Quote Originally Posted by charlieg70: Hey Locksmith are you on Cappersmall with the same name? No I'm not. I'm registered with SBR.com, Covers.com, TheRx.com, EOG.com testing out the different ones seeing which is most enjoyable. View Post \| View Thread	LocksmithSports	132	December 31, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Ex Pro & Bookie on Rutgers Today in College Football Quote Originally Posted by bell14l: Nice job today...do you have any advice on how to wager? Meaning, I see your bets are straight up with points...Do you do reverses, parlays, or teasers, money lines? I know money management is key...but just wanted to get some insight...Professional gambling has to be a grind...just looking for tips I'll put it to you this way, and unveil a curtain for you. When I would book bets, the way I got into it originally (and the way many others get into it you would be surprised) is the following: A lot of locals utilize different web portals now for managing their clients and their bets instead of doing it on paper and pencil over the phone like the old days. The web portal is just like an online betting site. You bet into the web portal, feels like an offshore, but it's really just a local utilizing software for managing his customers. I knew a few bookies that operated sites like these that were trying to get me to send my customers/players to them and give me a percentage of their losings as commission because they knew these customers/players may win my bets, but they would continue to bet into them and piss away their money on halftime bets and teasers and parlays and other stuff - like any casino. I never really referred anyone because the majority of my clients bet in person at the Vegas sportsbooks. But after these players/customers left Vegas, I would have them and their friends call me after they left Vegas asking if I knew anyone who would take their bets online. I would know the player/customer asking me liked to just play parlays and stupid bets because they would tell me their bad beat stories, and I said...shoot, I'm not passing all of these losing parlay bettors off to some bookie for a commission. I want all of the action. So I started an account online for all of these guys and told the bookie all of the action was from my customers. I told my former customers/players to just send me they're bets via text and I would book their bets and I would put their bets into the site. When they sent me a legit wager like Arizona +7, I would put that bet into the system and pass that off to the bookie. And when they bet parlay this and parlay that and teaser this, I wouldn't put that bet in and I would book it personally instead of passing it off. Needless to say I made a killing to where I was able to start booking all wagers and stopped selling my picks and betting altogether. I was able to learn REAL public betting tendencies, learned firsthand how stupidly people wager, and all the dumb shit they put their money on. At the end of the day, I just don't like being on that side of the fence. I don't enjoy taking people's money like that. I would just shake my head at the shit they were betting and almost felt bad I was taking their money, I just stopped. That should tell you all you need to know about parlays and such. View Post \| View Thread	LocksmithSports	132	December 31, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Ex Pro & Bookie on Rutgers Today in College Football Quote Originally Posted by RazorSharps: Nice job Bud.....I read all you have posted on here, and I can tell you are the real deal, your insight and knowledge is an asset to this forum and something Covers needs more and more, Please dont let the teenagers on here scare you away. Your opinion win or lose are valued by many on here lurkers as well as posters. Hope your run continues bro Many thanks. Like your screen name too View Post \| View Thread	LocksmithSports	132	December 31, 2011 View Post \| View Thread

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