Patrik2018

Patrik2018
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replied to Parachute Betting Over 98.5% probability to hit
in General Discussion

That is the problem - spot on - everyone thinks they have a life time session flat betting over 52% and no one reach that strike ratio.
Regular punters make maybe 48 or less and upon that variance.

Same with the parachute betting - one staking plan and all in and it will fail as everything else.
Everyone give the money back to the bookie.

This is classical thinking process.
We all know all system fails, but that does not mean you can not win using them. The issue is to how to avoid giving all the money back.

For example assume you would win 50% of your staking and you have a pretty good chance doing so. Around 99% probability.
Now only a stupid person would continue betting the same staking plan with the same bet size. As we know the future and the future will fail when going all in with never ending betting and give all the money back to the bookie.

I would suggest regression where you lower your unit size and operate with winnings, from that moment each winning bet is a % that you will keep and don't give back to the bookie when the system fail. And if you clever you start with a bigger unit size and lower your bet size using several layers.
Then you can start betting positiv progression, up and pull for more winnings using winnings.
The name of the game is Regression Up & Pull ...

Cheers
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Patrik2018 3
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created a topic Parachute Betting Over 98.5% probability to hit
in General Discussion

I am not sure this work - take it for what it is - a crazy idea ...
Is has nothing to do with value betting or any other advantage play ...

Idea is to bet even money odds and if a loss continue betting higher odds to win more.
The twist is that each bet one each odds is equal a even money bet using binomial probability calculation.
For example a 6.0 odds that hit within four attempts cycle is equal a even money bet.

odds 2.0
attempt 1 equal a even money bet
odds 3.0
attempts 2 equal a even money bet
odds 6.0
attempts 4 equal a even money bet
odds 9.0 
attempts 6 equal a even money bet
odds 12.0 
attempts 8 equal a even money bet
odds 18.0 
attempts 12 equal a even money bet
odds 36.0
attempts 25 equal a even money bet

That is a total of seven placement with 50% probability each to hit once with above 98.5% probability

You would risk at most 6 units or your bankroll.
Now i don't know about finding the odds spread, but any match would do no matter sport, team or what so ever.

Made a quick chart over the staking plan 
Odds - Staking - W/L

2.0 1 +1

3.0 1 +1
3.0 1 +0

6.0 1 +2
6.0 1 +1
6.0 1 +0
6.0 1 -1

9.0 1 +1
9.0 1 +0
9.0 2 +7
9.0 2 +5
9.0 2 +3
9.0 2 +1

12.0 2 +3
12.0 2 +1
12.0 3 +9
12.0 3 +6
12.0 3 +3
12.0 3 +0
12.0 4 +7
12.0 4 +3

18.0 4 +19
18.0 4 +15
18.0 4 +11
18.0 4 +9
18.0 4 +5
18.0 4 +1
18.0 5 +11
18.0 5 +6
18.0 5 +1
18.0 6 +11
18.0 6 +5
18.0 6 -1

36.0 3 +8
36.0 3 +5
36.0 3 +2
36.0 3 +1
36.0 4 +31
36.0 4 +27
36.0 4 +23
36.0 4 +19
36.0 4 +15
36.0 4 +11
36.0 4 +7
36.0 4 +3
36.0 4 -1
36.0 5 +31
36.0 5 +26
36.0 5 +21
36.0 5 +16
36.0 5 +11
36.0 5 +6
36.0 5 +1
36.0 6 +21
36.0 6 +15
36.0 6 +9
36.0 6 +3
36.0 6 -2  

I don't recommend this betting strategy - is only a funny thought or crazy idea wish was fun to mention.

Cheers

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Patrik2018 3
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created a topic Low Odds Strategy
in General Discussion

I understand all beginners make the same mistake and betting low odds and there should not be any value with that kind of strategy.
But in the same time i google and find some compounding strategy with low odds where some have turn 100 buck into 1000 buck.
Maybe luck or is there a theory where you can win many small amounts of money to become larger sum of money using low odds strategy - that is my question.

Now i don't ask to find a strategy to make a living i just want a strategy that give better return of investment then the interest from a bank account.

I look at one odds site and back track some games with really low odds and i discover that you get around 90% strike ratio.
Then i discover the problem with increasing the base bet with winnings for the next bet and let it accumulate would give all the profits back when you hit a loss.

So the question is not if you can win 20 or 40 times in a row, the problem is how to avoid the loss that will happen and make you give all the money back to the bookie.

I have try the staking plan Regression Up & Pull to avoid that issue.
And with my short test it look like a working solution.

Now i also been looking a line shopping with this low odds market wish no one seems to care so much about. I discover that you can get 5 to 10 points higher odds at different sportbetting sites.
So for example with decimal odds 1.01 you can some times find 1.05 or sometimes you can see 1.10 become 1.16

This small difference may not sound as much, but when the accumulation start to get bigger and you strike twenty in a row they sure make a big difference.

So is this fantasy world or can this become a working low odds strategy to get better return of investment then the interest from the bank account.

Cheers Patrik
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Patrik2018 4
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