PowerFive

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replied to Week 13 - Super Contest Picks and 5-team teaser in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by pinballwizard: Bol this weekend PowerFive. If you had to select all the games SU this Sunday and were allowed to box up to four games on the schedule, which four games would you most likely to box? I'm assuming the Cardinals-Redskins game would be one of the games you would box. Thanks pinball. I quite like the Redskins, but on further reflection I'm not convinced that this is a great matchup for them, although Tyrann Mathieu is now out which helps. For these teams I'd rank them SU as: Falcons Packers Eagles 49ers Redskins BOL View Post \| View Thread	PowerFive	11	December 04, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Week 13 - Super Contest Picks and 5-team teaser in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by Lizzen: Atlanta + 7,5 Minne + 16,5 winn Miami +13,5 New Orleans + 6,5 Oakland + 9,5 Redskins+16,5 NY+17,5 Tampa B +14,5 +300 Pending Sportbook in Sweden Best regards Lizzen from Sweden Good luck Lizzen View Post \| View Thread	PowerFive	11	December 02, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Week 13 - Super Contest Picks and 5-team teaser in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by lordbettington: On the redskins/cards you gave good reasons why to take the cards, yet you like the skins? Yeah, I quite like the Redskins getting points because I think they are the better team, they have had extra rest, and have more to play for - I like them for those reasons, but on further reflection this doesn't seem like a good matchup for them. This actually looks like a decent matchup for the Cards but I just can't trust Palmer and I'm unsure how motivated they will be to win this game. I think I will be leaving that game alone, as you can make a pretty good case for either team. View Post \| View Thread	PowerFive	11	December 02, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Week 13 - Super Contest Picks and 5-team teaser in NFL Betting For the purpose of Covers, the spreads at time of posting are as follows: Falcons -5 Packers -7 Eagles +1 Lions +5.5 49ers PK Using these lines, I recommend the following 5-team 6-point teaser (+400): Falcons +1 Packers -1 Eagles +7 Lions +11.5 49ers +6 View Post \| View Thread	PowerFive	11	December 02, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Week 13 - Super Contest Picks and 5-team teaser in NFL Betting Lions +5.5 Last week, the Saints embarrassed former defensive co-ordinator Gregg Williams as payback for Bountygate, pushing this spread up as a result. Saints were extremely motivated to win that game by as much as possible and Jared Goff just couldn't keep up, although he made a decent effort behind just 28-21 in the third quarter. They won't have that same motivation this week and the Saints' only other win by 6+ points this season was against SF - they have generally played games extremely close. Speaking of playing games close, the Lions are on a 19-game streak of being within one score in the fourth quarter and Stafford has covered or pushed the last five games as an underdog of 5.5 or more. Both teams have divisional games next week, Lions play the lowly Bears and Saints play the Bucs - the Saints @ Bucs matchup is huge and they may take their foot off the pedal if they are up multiple scores in this game. Off v Def matchups by DVOA favour Saints against a poor Lions defense, but the Saints are ranked #25 against the pass and may struggle to contain Stafford, setting up a shoot-out - the last drive could decide this one and Stafford, getting more than 4 points, is certainly capable of a backdoor cover if necessary. 49ers +2.5 This game has big draft implications, the losing team will likely get the 2nd overall pick. The Bears face the Lions, Packers, Redskins and Vikings after this matchup, another win could be hard to come by and there is a chance that they just (subconsciously) mail it in from here, especially after losing Trevathan and sending Cutler to IR. Cutler is the 16th Bears player to be placed on IR this season. Their defense is now without Trevathan and Freeman and may struggle to stop the 49ers #7 ranked rush offense. The Off v Def matchups by DVOA favours the rushing attacks for both teams, however the 49ers are ranked better of the two in that department. On the defensive side of the ball, either side of the Patriots game, the 49ers allowed just 95 and 80 rushing yards to the Dolphins and Cardinals respectively, so it's possible that they have improved in that regard. The weather may also have an impact, with an 80% chance of snow, and both teams may look to move the ball on the ground and set up a short, close game. Not much separates the passing attacks but, given the injuries/suspensions to the Bears defense and wide receivers, I'd rather take the points with Kaepernick over Matt Barkley. I also like Redskins +2.5 for the Super Contest; I just think they are the better team with extra rest and more to play for, but I'm not sure this is a good matchup for them - Cardinals have a top-5 pass defense and Jordan Reed is out, Redskins have the worst run defense in the league and David Johnson should have a good game. View Post \| View Thread	PowerFive	11	December 02, 2016 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Week 13 - Super Contest Picks and 5-team teaser in NFL Betting For anyone questioning the spreads, these are SpreadEx Super Contest lines which were set on Wednesday. For the purpose of Covers, the current lines and the 5-team 6-point teaser will be posted after the following write-ups: Falcons -3.5 Nice spot here for the Falcons, back-to-back home games since coming off their week 11 bye. Chiefs are coming off an overtime win in Denver, with the Raiders up next on TNF - all three losses this season in similar spots: lost @HOU after overtime win vs.SD lost @PIT with OAK up next lost vs.TB with DEN up next 6 of 7 wins for the Falcons this season were by 7 points or more. Off v Def matchups by DVOA are close, but the main advantage here is with the Falcons rushing attack. Packers -6.5 The Packers were in free-fall before a big win in Philadelphia on MNF and are now very much in the division race with the Vikings & Lions still to come in Weeks 16 & 17. Most of GB's recent losses were to teams with highly ranked pass offenses (by DVOA - DAL#2, ATL#1, IND#23?, TEN#7, WAS#6) - HOU have the #32 ranked pass offense. Packers are the much better team by DVOA and are 3-1 at home this season. 4 of 5 wins for the Packers this season were by 7 points or more. In injury news, it looks like Clay Matthews and Rodgers will be fine for this contest. Texans have lost heavily in 3 of their 4 road games; sole road win was against the Jags by 3 points. Huge division game up next in Indianapolis, and given the state of the AFC South, that game is much more important than this one. Off v Def matchups by DVOA favour the Packers, as expected, their #7 ranked rush defense should limit a banged up Lamar Miller, putting pressure on Osweiler. Eagles -1 Both of these teams have played tough schedules this season (opponents played 0.550) and both have just one win from their last 5 games. Bengals have played the last two games close, but never really looked like winning either and are clearly struggling without AJ Green. This game is a must-win for the Eagles, in order to keep their slim Wild Card hopes alive. Eagles are 1-5 on the road this season, but those losses came against DET, WAS, DAL, NYG, SEA - all have winning records (average win percentage across those teams is 0.709) and those teams are much better than the Bengals (except maybe the Lions, but the Eagles definitely should have won that game anyway). The most favourable Off v Def matchup by DVOA favours the Eagles rushing attack. Eagles are the better team here, this matchup plays to their strengths, and they should be more motivated with playoff hopes on the line. View Post \| View Thread	PowerFive	11	December 02, 2016 View Post \| View Thread

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