RealExpert

Game isn’t over, but not going to lie, they had us in the first half. 

They look horrific. Two halves to every game though, but if they don’t come out and score quick in the third, this is going to be tough. 

Live line is 13.5 negative 14 value. 

I see a good play on SMU here at -13.5. I am doubling my bet by taking SMU -13.5 here for the game. 

@Glccskippy22

 It’s never a loss until you can’t bet anymore on the game and it’s over. 

After Nevada FG live is at 16 or negative 11.5 value. If SMU doesn’t score on this drive and Nevada gets ball back I will seriously consider betting more on SMU or “averaging down” my bet. Seeing value on that line as it’s well below opening line with a lot of time left. 

Ok after SMU score live line shorter than I thought at 20 and bought up to 20.5. Negative 7 value. I think Vegas likes what they see so far from Nevada. One turnover can flip that pretty quick though. This will be an interesting drive. 

Live line at 16 negative 11.5 value. Should SMU score on this drive I see line moving to 22.5. 

SMU can score really fast. 

Terrible start for SMU. Still early but going to take a quick turnaround to see any value anytime soon. so important for this method to work to be on the right side early. 

FYI - staring at live lines during the game will ruin the live aspect of watching for you because of the TV delay you basically know what happens to a certain extent before you actually watch it. 

@RealExpert

 Tv break so a second to explain the math. My original was ~4-1. Opposite side for to 20-1. I only have to put 20% of my original bet on the 20-1 to recoup my initial bet. Why not put 50% of my original bet amount at 20-1 on the other side. 

$100 at 4-1 pays $400 

$50 at 20-1 pays $1,000 

if 4-1 wins I win $350 

if 20-1 wins I win $900

Very sloppy start for SMU which is a great 1st quarter team. We are negative value on any plays right now by 3.5 points from our original line. 

@OneADayJ

 Like I said, I will stay live on games I post from here on out. I am shocked I would have to tell someone to hedge something when the odds on the other side are over 20-1. 

@osubucks1

 Think what you want. I don’t care. 

@Tiltmachine23

 Ha it’s just math guys. I have no conviction. I watch for value. 

Great pic by Nevada. Wow. 

Ok let’s see how we start. I am going to live post so you can see how I try to hit both sides for a guaranteed win, preserve capital or go for a middle. 

@BrittanyWVU

 It’s worth it to help people to see how you can take advantage of in game scenarios. The key is to be on the right side early. Let’s see what happens with SMU. We want them up by 14 or 21 at some point in the first half. It’s like trading options in the stock market. The goal is to not care who wins the game in the end because you are positive profit on both sides or have a middle. 

@OneADayJ

 Ha at that time I was, but it wasn’t over 20-1. How can you pass that up when your original play on the other side is 4-1? It’s math, which doesn’t have emotion. If you don’t take that and guarantee yourself profit or preserve capital, which no one should have to tell you to do, then you really shouldn’t be betting. Every play I make, I am looking to hedge original capital if the circumstances allow. I will try to post all hedges when I see it, but sometimes I am playing both sides throughout the whole game. Again, it’s about the math, not who you are rooting for or to boast about a record. I will do a live strategy for SMU. Just trying to bring some value and what I have learned over the years to people. 

@Volplaya8

 Ha you crack me up. I made more money on the Montana State win. I care way more about my account balance than what you post. Those enormous hedge live line bets available in the 2nd half had me rooting for Montana State. Got em above 20-1. I do like your Vols this year though and plan to hammer them until the books catch on to how good your QB is. Now I turn my attention to SMU. 

@Volplaya8

 I sure hope no one is nervous. There were some huge hedge opportunities throughout this 2nd half. I will actually make more profit with a MSU win. Money management is everything. That was a perfect set up for a win win for anyone on NMU from the start.