renroh123

Point #2:

The Pad’s pitching is not close to being as dominant as what the public believes it to be.

• The Pad’s averaged giving up, Majors leading, 3.34 runs per game, but as stated above, they give up 4.63 runs per game against top 12 (runs scored) teams.  I know it is not fair to say that this team ERA would put them close to league worst team ERA, but it adds a bit of perspective of how dominant, or not, the Pads pitching staff actually is.
• Latos, and Richard will provide quality starts, but on probably less rest than they are accustomed to (and will not average going as deep as they normally do regardless); I doubt their performance will be as stellar.  Bell is one of the best closers in the Majors, but running him out there for 4 plus outs consecutive (and they will, because their starters will go less deep b/c …well, they give up more runs to better hitting teams) will not work very well/long.

Point # 3:

The Pads have performed horribly against playoff caliber teams

• The Pads have a winning 57.2% (79-59), and the average score is Pad’s 4.3 to opponents 3.34 for the season, and against top 12 (runs scored) teams the average score is 4.18 Pads to 4.25, not too bad right? But their record against top 12 teams is 14-24 (win % of 36.8%).

In closing:

The Pads have such a low team ERA, and have been steadily under, even with some of the lowest O/U lines this season (as low as 5.5 runs):  they are 54% under for the season, they are 2-10 O/U last 12, and their remaining 7 series; only 2 are top 12 (runs scored) teams.  So I suspect the majority of the remaining games will support a low O/U line in the post season.  Hence, I would recommend that you bet 5 units to win apprx. 12 on opponent/over parlar, should you lose that, increase your play (same play) to 8 units to win apprx. 20 (if you win, you profited 15 units), should you lose that, increase to 12 units to win apprx. 30 units (should you win, you would profit a total of 17 units, should you lose that (yeah…right) increase your play to 20 units to win apprx. 50 to win apprx. 125 units to win apprx 100 units in total.  Once you win it, start it over until our Golden Geese are gone.  

Below average batting, but hey.. Harriston, and Gwynn are on the DL, which has caused them to slow a bit, and they will both be back, and healthy for the post season.

Ok… the public holds the Pads as potential, or atleast possible ‘contenders’……… agreed?.... Great,… Let’s take a peek behind the Wizard’s curtain for a moment

Ok, now let’s look behind the ‘Wizard’s curtain’ for  a moment:

I will prove the following statements—immediately to follow:

1)      The Pad’s have had a PERFECT SCHEDULE to hide their weakness, and skewer opinion of their quality.

2)      The Pad’s pitching is not close to being as dominant as what the public believes it to be.

3)       The Pads have performed horribly against playoff caliber teams

Point #1:

The Pad’s have had a perfect schedule to hide their weakness, and skewer opinion of their quality:

Almost every playoff probable teams share many commonalities, none of which are more consistent than runs scored. Almost (the only teams that might make it and not in this category is the Giants, Pads, and Cards) NYY, Tampa, Cinci, Twins, Rangers, Braves, Rockies, Phillies, White Sox.  Now that this point is made here is the proof in the ‘Puddin’

• The Pads have played 46 Series this season, of these series they played only 16 of these against teams in the upper 49% (14^th in the Majors or better in runs scored) or 34.8%, they played 30 of 46 series against teams 15^th or below (runs scored) or 65.2%.  They played 15 of 46 series against teams ranked 20^th or worse (runs scored), or 32.6%. They played 7 of 46 series against teams that were in the bottom 4 (runs scored) or 15.2%.
• The above facts should shed light of just how poorly the majority of their opponents perform at the plate.  Hence, they have a stellar pitching staff?  Ummm, maybe not.
• The Pads give up 3.34 runs per game, but give up 4.63 runs per game against top 12 teams (runs scored), and they only score 4.3 runs per game.. hmmm
• 7 of the above named teams are also in the top 12 in team ERA as well, so not only do the Pads give up 139% more runs to top 12 (playoff teams), but they have played substantially less games/series against the better pitching teams; yet they still are at a -1.29 run disadvantage without even considering that.
• The Pads have the 6^th best record in the Majors, 2^nd best—just .002 behind the Phillies—in the NL, but that too is skewed.  Let me explain… the have won 57.2% of all games they played,….not too shabby huh?..hmmm..

Pray that the Giants fall to sleep during their series against the Pads, and we can cash in heavy in the post season going against the Pads, and though I believe heavily in straight plays, parlaying the over while going against the Pads.   

Disclosure:

To Pads fans…best of luck to you, and I am not ‘bashing padres’.  I have no loyalty to any team, only to profit, and I have no contempt for any team, only to losing.  Also, I just love numbers, and I make my living from the book because of it.  I look for opportunities, but not I, nor anyone else bats 1.000, but I look for edges, and this is THE edge of the season if they hold on to the division for the remainder of the season; and if the Pads can play 500 ball through the 23^rd , I think they will be in it.

The entire Baseball world is convinced that the Pads have the—bar none—best, and an most impenetrable pitching staff….. it is ‘smoke and mirrors’ my friends!

If the betting public is mislead, the lines will be advantageous—and the betting public has bought the ‘Pads are no joke’ scenario, hook…line… and sinker!

Ok, you think I am ‘full of it’?  I understand that mindset, so let’s look at it closely:

What is the general public perception of the Pads thus far?

Best ERA/best pitching in the Majors…bar none!

5^th best record, EVEN AFTER A ‘FLUKE’ 10 GAME LOSING STREAK!