sharpmatrix

and ps. .. i won't come back and post here to read your pathetic response fat boy, I have a life and I can't post 41,000+ LOL faaaking LOOOOSER HAHAHA

@packersbackers

 I aint crying. Nor did I invite you in here to attack me. You are just another keyboard warrior that thinks he is a tough guy but really you are the fat biatch. I could ruin you and mop the floor with your fat ass. You're lucky the internet is anonymous you little pansy assss biatch.

LOL 41,000+ posts. Wow what a life living on an internet forum. You came in here talking smack. Watch the game you loser. 41,000+ posts? Jesus at first I thought you were a jaaaackass. Now I pity what a faaaking loser you are thinking about the time it takes to post 41,000+ times. 

So get a life loser. To come in and just be a keyboard warrior like a litttle biatch shows what a loser and wimp you are. We both know I and pretty much anybody could whip your sorry pathetic fat assss biatch.

Another retard packersasspacker with ignorant peasant comment. No wonder you're fat and broke. No cheating has ever happened in NBA.

They have done this all year, intentionally bricking shots, not rebounding. Guys stopping, pretending to make effort. They should be investigated. This isn't a tin foil hat you lost the bet thread. They always do this when they think nobody is looking. On the road vs. Orlando on a Wednesday. Getting sick of NBA players.

Is is possible but you will never find the outlets to take your action. You will have to bet $5,000 a game, and hit 20 units profit per month consistently. You will have insane turnover. Once you start winning betting 5k a game you will get limited fast. It is no different then a doctor saying I want to make 1 million a year. The best doctors only make 150-350k a year.

A more realistic goal is to aim for $100,000 a year, and have a second job as a business owner doing something you love. If you can profit 20 units a month, bet $500 a game, and have the discipline to flat bet, and ride the waves of variance, with a solid model in 2-3 different sports, with 50 games a week bet, then you have a shot at 100k a year.

Most of you here need to grow the hell up. Take this seriously. Give it your all and be honest with yourself. This is why most of you fail. No discipline or honesty.

NBA is all over the place. They score 22 points in the last 2 min, and CLE MIN score 65, 51, 58 in the first 3 quarters now 26 points in the 4th with 3 min to go. I wish I did not scoreboard watch so much.

The Hawks are not the same fast paced team anymore. They changed gears finally and slow the pace and play D. BRK does not give a rats ass anymore until the playoffs. Sure they don’t play D but they don’t hustle either. 238 is too high and this game ends around 225. 

No, playing D in crunch time doesn't mean DAL scores 13 points at home in the 4th quarter with a min to go. Yes teams play D in the 4th more so, but lately we are talking about completely reduced pace and bricked shots with a lot of games. It's crazy. I have never seen teams fall off so much.

Lately I have seen a lot of games that start out with 25-30+ points each per quarter, then the 4th and a massive drop-off. Not the usual defense shows up and it drops 10 pts or so, but I mean teams scoring a combined 30-40 points. Cleveland has 11 points with most or the 4th finished, Dallas has 6 and Denver 10 at the 6:30 mark of the 4th, PHX and DEN the other night could not put up a single point in the second half combined with 5 minutes played. Toronto 17 today, Miami 14 in the 4th today total. 

What are your thoughts for the massive total drop off? Covid fatigue? Boredom? Zero fans? Finding an angle here is key. I may flat bet Unders live for the 4th quarter if I can find enough to show this is not short term variance. 

It is very good you are able to recognize you have a problem and stopped. As another poster mentioned, 20,000 really is not a lot of money, and with hard work you can take 2 jobs and make that in 4-6 months doing basic work.

You sweat games because you are betting money you do not have. This is a cardinal error. You need to practice bankroll management by betting amounts that do not phase you financially and in turn psychologically damage you.

Never check the scores. All that matters is the end result that was specifically derived close to your handicapping model. I know of many people in your boat. It is always the stress of losing money you don't have, you borrowed, or stole that causes the downfall.

You don't have to give up something you love. Here is some advice. 10 points to help you and others.

1. Quit for good now, not even betting $5 with a friend for "fun". Zero action.

2. Write out all the money you owe people and or credit cards, loans, everything. Start from lowest amount to the highest.

3. Pay off all the smaller debts first and work your way up to the large ones. Once you start knocking out debts you will have less stress and more motivation. You will start to rebuild and feel better. Even if its $20. Pay it off and apologize to anybody you have not payed back when you said you would.

4. One day, after you have paid off everything, work harder and now begin saving for your bankroll. The minimum you should bet is $100 per play on singles. Have $5,000 saved and you will have 50 units. Continue to work your day/night job and put in 2-3 hours a day handicapping games. Bet any play you believe is good value. No parlays, no big all in bets, no 5 unit plays, just 1 unit, $100. 

5. If you can generate $1000 profit per month, +10.0 units, and not cheat yourself once by increasing your bet, or parlays, or checking scores in games that induce tilt and invite you to chase, then you are on the right track. Aim to bet 25 plays a week and earn +2.5 units profit per week.

6. Record every play, every dollar you bet and record WHY you won or lost. You must win games the way your model predicted, not just dumb luck. Conversely, record why you lost. Filter out variables and results to determine what is important. I will give you 3 variables to start.

7. Focus on defense, team energy, and motivation. You cannot pull these variables out except defense. You will have to read, and study the local beat reporters, watch footage of the teams post game interviews, read twitter, gather any information to give you a good sense a team WANTS this win. You cannot tell me a player has the same motivation he does on a Tuesday in Memphis vs. a Saturday night in LA. Find the motivation. Watch for travel and how hard teams played their previous opponents in the week. This is your edge. All sports models are built on statistics that the LVSCG (Las Vegas Sports Consulting Group) makes for the lines. Make your own variables and edge by introducing variables you quantify on your own that they don't use in their algorithms.

8. Never stop learning and always create goals and motivate yourself. Make a list of your life goals, small to large as well and knock them out and give yourself joy and happiness in life.

9. Don't ever let anybody put you down. We all screw up. Own it and don't repeat the mistakes. Learn from it and keep leaning into the hill.

10. If you tried and failed again, then be honest with yourself and find a job you enjoy doing without the mental stress. Stress is a life killer. It destroys your body inside and out. If you can't overcome your mistakes, put yourself in a different position to succeed.

Best of luck,

Christopher

OVERALL PROFIT 0.00
UNITS BET: 0

Today's plays...

DAY 1: SAT JAN 23, 2021

NOP@MIN, MIN +9.5 @ 1.93 (-108)
PHI@DET, DET +6.5 @ 1.95 (-105)
LAL@CHI, CHI +9.5 @ 1.92 (-102)
GSW@UTA, GSW +7.0 @ 1.94 (-104)
NOP@MIN, OVER 217.5 @ 1.97 (-103)

*All bets are 1 unit each singles.
*All lines are from Pinnacle sports at the time of post
*All bets will be flat bets

Good luck.

Hello everyone. I would like to begin posting my plays and commune with other handicappers. I am interested in other peoples betting models, specifically what NBA variables you like to use in your model.

Once I clearly establish I know what I am doing by letting my profit do the talking, I would like to work with handicappers that use machine learning betting methods like myself and work together to refine meaningful variables. 

If you have any questions, please feel free to ask.

Thank you,

Christopher

*sorry had a typo in there, meant "more specifically..."

Hello everybody. This is my first post. I just joined in hoping to commune with other handicappers, specifically ones focused on machine learning and manual models using variables and simple bedmas. I have developed successful models for NBA, but I would like to build a model for MLB. 

My first question is, what would be a standard sample size for you to use for a statistic in MLB. Normally I use 1000-1500+ events, but with baseball there are a lot of teams with younger players now with stat samples that are not reliable due to their high variance. In your experience, what would be the minimum number of events that you would be happy with that provided a reliable statistic that was at least 75% correct in providing your model with accurate data. More superficially, pitching statistics in exit velocity, RPM, hard and soft contact, and launch angle. 

If anybody needs help in algorithms or programming, or general physics feel free ask. Cheers and thank you,

Christopher