Shauwig

YTD 0-0 0,00u, 1 unit per play

Red Sox ML @1,92
Nats +1½ @1,97
Brewers/M's under 7½ @2,08
Reds ML @1,84

YTD 0-0 0,00 unit, 1 unit each for this record

Wild ML @2,07

Yotes ML @2,23

YTD 29-14 13,36u, 1 unit each for this record

Guardians -1½ @2,07
Phillies F5 -½ @1,94
Dbacks ML @2,17
Dodgers -1½ @1,86
Astros F5 ML @2,02

Been a while, so just one. YTD 29-13 14,36u, 1 unit each for this record

M's@Twins over 8 @1,99

Rematch. Maeda and Castillo are both primed to get lit up.

I know, slumping M's on travel. If they don't get to Maeda, maybe they're awake when they get to the available arms in the twins bullpen 

YTD 27-12 13,72u, 1 unit each for this record

Texas -1.0 @1.90
Nats/Phillies over 8½ @1,86
Braves F5 –0.5 @1.74

YTD 25-11 12,88u, 1 unit each for this record

Mets/Jays over 8½ @1.91
Padres/Cubs under 9 @1.80
Rangers ML @2.04

YTD 23-10 11,95u, 1 unit each for this record

Angels ML @2,21
Mariners ML @1,72
Red Sox -1 @1,81

YTD 22-8 12,84u, 1 unit each for this record

Cards -1 @1.95
Royals/Nats over 9 @1.94
Marlins F5 ML @2,11

YTD 19-8 9,91u, 1 unit each for this record

Yankees/Padres under 8½ @1,97
Dodgers ML @2,04
Twins/Jays over 8 @1,92

YTD 18-7 10,11u, 1 unit each for this record

Yankees/O's OVER 9 @1.92
Nats tt over 3½ @1.80

YTD 16-7 7,96u, 1 unit each for this record

Rangers -1½ @2,10
Cards -1½ @2,05

YTD 14-6 6,75u, 1 unit each for this record

Dbacks F5 +0,50 @2,30
Royals/Tigers over 8½ @1,91
Angels/RedSox over 9½ @1,89

Holding my nose. YTD 11-5 5,10u, 1 unit each for this record

Reds ML @2,37
Nats ML @1,78
Dbacks tt over 4½ @1,99
Rangers/Rockies over 9 @1,88

YTD 10-3 6,32u, 1 unit each for this record
Marlins (alt line) -1 @1,87
Mets/Rays under 8½ @2,05
A's/Dbacks over 9 @1,78
Guardians ML @1,83

Regression likely. YTD 10-2 7,32u, 1 unit each for this record

Braves ML @1,95

YTD 9-1 7,38u, 1 unit each for this record

Dbacks/Giants under 8 @1,90
Rockies/Phillies under 11½ @1,94

YTD 6-1 4,66u, 1 unit each for this record

Astros ML @1,70
RSox/Cards o 10½ @1,82
Angels ML @2,20

Why not try again. YTD 4-0 3,67u, 1 unit each for this record

Tigers ML @2,13
Dbacks ML @1,70
Giants/Nats over 8½ @1,86

Probably not posting a lot/often, 0-0 - 0 units, 1 unit each for this record

Astros ML @2.21
Yankees/A's over 8½ @1,85
Cubs tt over 3½ @1,70
Giants/Nats under 8½ @1,91

It is all about risk vs reward. I work in decimal odds, so this is my approach:

I cap the games to find my probabilities and then factor in my risk willingness (often based om how much value I find, but could be gutfeel)

WinProbability x Odds = Betvalue

Then I factor in my risk-willingness (I go a scale from 1-5, meaning 0,01 to 0,05 in the formula):

Betvalue x WinProbability/100 x Risk (0,01-0,05) = % of my bankroll to bet

If I had capped the Angels game (didn't do it, but) I might have come up with Angels winning 80% and A's 20%

At -314, that would be about odds 1,32, which I use to see if there is value (over 100 = value)

So Angels game would be: 80 x 1,32 = 105,6 (= I got value, had I capped Angels winning 75% I wouldn't have any value at that odds)

I am risk averse in this one (or I am one of the guys going "All That Juice, My God! So much VALUE on the dogs!"), so I'd factor with 1

105,6 x 0,80 x 0,01 = 0,84

So if my bankroll was 1000 dollars, I'd bet 8,4 dollar on this