sheeklouch

Finally enough data to begin generating spreads using the model for the 2024/2025 season. I believe the overall record against the spread last season was 1265 wins and 1035 losses. I wasn't able to figure out if there was any difference in probability based on the discrepancy between the generated spread and the actual spread. I will be able to track that a bit better this season. If you have any questions about the formula used in the model please send me a message, any input is appreciated. Best of luck this season.

Cavs -27

Warriors -26

Lakers -1.25

Celtics -7.5

Grizzlies -3.2

Heat -1

Bulls -20

Knicks -9

Wolves -5

Thunder -27

Pelicans -2.6

Mavs -7

Nuggets -6.5

Suns -20

Spurs -8.5

 123-99-2

Fallen off a bit lately but hopefully things turn around here. 

sixers -14.1
grizzlies -14.0
cavs -1.5
raptors -4.9
nets -20
wolves -16.0
hornets -2.6
thunder -14.0
mavs -1.6
nuggets -4.89
blazers -0.7

Best of luck betting ??

115-91-2

warriors -4.09

wolves -18.4

magic -9.9

cavs -19.9

pelicans -23.5

Heat -4.88

bucks -10.75

grizzlies -1.2

thunder -21.8

blazers -12.8

nuggets -11.3

rockets -11.6

111-89-2

magic -12.8
knicks -1.5
mavs -3.0
sixers -1.28
pelicans -12
nuggets -0.7

108-83-2

Been ice cold lately.  Hopefully it finds itself or else I may have to start tinkering and tweak it.

cavs -9.19
nets -17.7
knicks -20.25
pacers -6.6
thunder -11.0
hawks -8.1
bucks -24.2
wolves -17.0
clippers -8.1

106-78-2

Lakers -4.0

magic -21.8

suns -6.0

jazz -6.3

sixers -4.7

rockets -8.26

kings -0.6

@cheech1972

 nets -0.5 nets -1.7 nets -1.7 nets -4.3 nets -5.1 Nets -1.5
knicks -5.2 knicks -8.4 knicks -8.5 knicks -0.6 knicks -0.39 Hornets +11.5
hawks -1.6 hawks -3.3 hawks -3.3 hawks -8.7 hawks -7.4 hawks +4.5
celtics -7.98 celtics -13.89 celtics -9.8 celtics -12.16 celtics -7.6 Bulls +13.5
heat -0.26 bucks -1.3 heat -1.28 bucks -3.0 bucks -1.9 Heat +3.5
wolves -0.9 wolves -2.6 wolves -2.2 thunder -13.5 thunder -14.6 Thunder +2.5
rockets -6.9 rockets -5.5 rockets -9.9 rockets -22.1 rockets -23.3 rockets +3.5
warriors -2.0 warriors -1.5 warriors -4.0 warriors -6.3 warriors -8.5 warriors +1.5

@Swavings

 Good call.  Like I said I wouldn't recommend playing all of the games. I don't even play all of the games myself. The formula is entirely unproven. Just using this as an outlet for conversation and for tracking purposes. Good luck with whatever you're on tonight. 

I believe everything lined up today but I'll let you know when I get home. The one time I posted the actual picks and people asked me to go back to posting the old style lol. 

That's what I actually had put down on the sheet I just didn't post the summary yesterday as I wasn't sure if people were actually going through it all or not. 

@RLM_Covers

 The numbers posted were based off of a weighted average of the last 6 games. I used to post more, but some people requested that I stick to only posting this line.  The Pacers line was significantly higher using the last 6 game weighted average formula than it was for the other versions of the formula, therefore the consensus pick was blazers +11.5.  I don't post all versions as it gets confusing for people trying to follow.

pacers -8.8 pacers -12.8 pacers -11.2 pacers -15.7 pacers -9.8 = Blazers +11.5

104-72-2

nets -5.1
knicks -0.39
hawks -7.4
celtics -7.6
bucks -1.9
thunder -14.6
rockets -23.3
warriors -8.5

102-69-2

wizards -3.0
lakers -12.8
pacers -15.7
pelicans -23.7
clippers -11.9

98-65-2

bucks -23.8
wolves -13.5
magic -18.3
suns -14.9
hawks -13.4
raptors -2.8
nets -17.27
nuggets -9.3

Tonight is tricky because there are a lot of significant players who may sit out.  Remember that this model doesn't account for any of that. Not yet anyways.

 @FresnoHawk68

 You said you were confused but you got it exactly right lol

95-62-2

The spreads I've been posting lately have been based on a weighted average of the last 6 games.  Using that formula, the spreads today look a bit nutty.  I will post them, and I will also post the same formula with spreads generated using the full seasonal averages.  The results are the same for the most part, just a bit less exaggerated.

Previous 6 game weighted average

thunder -24.1
heat -19.8
hawks -7.56
lakers -8.4
pelicans -27.5
clippers -14.4

Seasonal average

thunder -1.4
heat -1.25
hawks -10.8
lakers -0.8
pelicans -4.95
clippers -2.6

88-59-2

Happy thanksgiving all.

magic -7.9
suns -12.3
heat -8.6
raptors -10.6
pacers -16.8
wolves -11.0
bucks -22.7
rockets -6.4
warriors -12.4
pelicans -5.2

@Swavings

 Yes I can. One sec. I was trying to make it easier for people lol.

hornets -7.3

Magic -11.6

bucks -12.5

cavs -2.2

pacers -5.9

hawks -0.24

rockets -8.1

sixers -0.5

pelicans -5.7

clippers -16.6

thunder -22.3

jazz -16.8

suns -8.5

lakers -17.0

@jacksup

 Ohhhhh. I understand now. My fault. I thought you were trying to guess what the formula is in some way. That's my fault. 

I stopped calculating the differential because I tweaked the formula a few times and I haven't fully committed to one or the other as of yet I've just been tracking both.