Smoqueed47

We returned with the UNDER 41.5 cashing yesterday in KC/HOU.

BAL ML (-115) vs BUF

Today we are in the late slot in Orchard Park. This AFC Divisional game between the Ravens and Bills has some "Superbowl" feel to it. This will be the fifth meeting between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. BAL is 3-1 ATS in those previous four matchups.

The Ravens even flipped from an initial underdog to a slight favorite as the away team. This is extremely rare in the Divisional round, as road favorites in this round have gone 1-3 ATS/SU. This Ravens team feels different though.

In the regular season matchup, the Ravens ran the ball for 271 yards, averaging 8 yards per carry(!). Derrick Henry's longest TD run of the season came against the Bills in the 35-10 Week 4 victory.

While Home teams usually put up a good game on Saturday of Divisional Playoff Weekend (20-10 ATS last 15 seasons), Sundays are for the Road teams in this circumstance. Road teams playing in the Divisional Playoff Weekend on Sundays are covering at an impressive 67% (25-12-1 ATS) over the last 16 seasons.

While I lean towards the OVER of 51.5 in regards to the total...today's play is BAL ML at the best price you can find. It is floating around -115 to -120 here around 10:30 am EST.

Let's eat again today./

Back tomorrow!

First time back in some years...

HOU/KC UNDER 41.5

A slow start to the Divisional round will be in the cards on Saturday when the Chiefs look to come off their "double-bye" and face the Texans who are limping into the playoffs, even after an impressive win over the Chargers last week.

The Chiefs took Week 18 of the regular season as a rest week, with a 38-0 loss to their division foes, the Broncos. In fact, the drubbing brought their average score of divisional games to 16-19. The Texans, in comparison, have an average season score vs Divisional opponents at 25-22, a net positive of 3 points. Much of this is meaningless now in the playoffs, but with colder weather scheduled for Saturday, I'm slightly penalizing the team that plays their home games in a dome. Mahomes and Co. have their goals set on a sixth straight AFC championship game, starting with what would be the lowest total of Mahomes' playoff career. Andy Reid is 33-11 to the UNDER as a home favorite of 7 points or greater since 2011. I think we see a slow grind and another "ugly" win for the Chiefs. LEAN to Texans and the 8.5 pts....but UNDER 41.5 is the main play.

Let's eat this weekend./

I believe the line will be flipped come kickoff...probably NYG -2.5, pending any Arodgers news. First play of the season is strictly what I believe to be value.

Giants at home on (nearly) the 20-yr anniversary of 9/11. In fact, on Sept. 10, 2001, these two teams played on Monday Night Football. The Broncos won the game 31-20 in the first ever regular season game at Invesco Field at Mile High. Wide Receiver Ed McCaffrey broke his leg during the game. The game, being hosted in Denver and televised on late night television on the east coast, reportedly saved a significant amount of lives the following day, with many fans calling into work the next day.

The Giants are also facing their former head coach, Pat Shurmur. Some extra motivation for the guys that have been around for awhile. On the other side, Teddy and Drew are in a QB battle and if Arodgers opts to stay in Green Bay, I see Daniel Jones having the advantage under center. I personally see Drew Lock as the starter as the two class of 2019 QB's will go at it Week 1.

The Giants will be on a short week the following week, as they will visit Washington on Thursday Night Football in Week 2. 

The Broncos will visit the Jaguars in Week 2, with a possible Tebow sighting during the Sunday afternoon game.

All that said, I see value here with NYG and they could be favored by 2 or 3 come kickoff. I see some lines already flipping to a pick'em at some shops. Let's pull the trigger and cash out in 4 months time. 

NYG +1 (-110)

Full Card

2/28

Marlins ML (+118)

Cardinals -1.5 (+140) --- switched to Cardinals ML -140 for the contest

Dbacks ML (+103)

Dodgers ML (-127)

Giants ML (-108)

Padres ML (-130)

Reds ML (+111)

Royals ML (-128)

Blue Jays ML (+110)

Rays ML (-128)

Dbacks ML (+103)

lineups are rolling in this morning...

happy spring training day

Marlins ML (+118)

Cardinals -1.5 (+140)

probably more to come

OVER 219.5

also value in Dubs ML at +110

but the total is the only play

Chiefs ML

Packers -3

76ers -6.5

Heat +8

Pelicans -9

Rockets +8

Bulls +10

Jazz -7

Nuggets -2

Remember, if the Bucks win, the regular season means nothing. If the Lakers win, crown them champs right now.

Bucs +3

Chiefs -.5 (2H)