syoudeem

I'm pretty sure he was implying that sharp money was coming in on the fins -- either way, wasn't a similar percentage attributed to last nights game where Chicago had 70+% consensus, and the line dropped how many points despite that?

Miami will win ML

Dallas will cover 

Miami will cover 1st qtr

Look to load up in-game live on Miami PK or -1 / Dallas +7 or +8 

Game 5 i think Miami will be -5

Miami will win, Dallas will cover, Miami will cover 1st qtr

it's funny, i rarely do this, and i havent posted here in a minute.. but thanks to this guy running his mouth, he made my Dallas lean turn into a big bet

Shouldnt the earlier ticket # match the earlier time? Maybe I'm wrong here, but seems like you posted false tickets..

San Antonio Over 188 (***** 5 STARS *****) - POD #2  heyy...! again!

Denver Over 204.5 (**** 4 STARS ****) 

Portland 2nd Half Over (**** 4 STARS ****) 

Denver -3 (**** 4 STARS ****) 

I already have 1st Half Portland as my POD#1

I meant to write San Antonio Over 188 (***** 5 STARS *****) - POD #2

Portland Over 184 (***** 5 STARS *****) - POD 

I expect Dallas to keep the pace up and I think Portland will match it

thank you 

1st Half San Antonio -.5 (**** 4 STARS ****) 

Portland +5 (**** 4 STARS ****)

Portland 1st Half Over 93 (***** 5 STARS *****) - POD

San Antonio -1.5 (*** 3 STARS ***) 

I clearly didnt explain myself well, so let me try to clarify my point. there is something called "line movement". if you are serious about trying to predict the outcome of games, then you will usually look at a variety of factors to help confirm your bias. One of things I take into consideration is line movement. This "line movement" however, does not, and should not be the only determining factor when choosing a side - this is where I seem to have messed up recently, as i put too much focus on them.

from what i understand, a line will move, more or less, for two reasons: (1) heavy money/action is on one particular side and so the books attempt to balance the action by adjusting the spread. this is how life works, when there's more pressure on one side, the market will try to reach equilibrium. Unfortunately, in this industry, not only is it not that simple or efficient, it's very possible that games are tampered with. Either way, books "try" to balance the action - they will not always reach 50% on each side but they "try". It's the same notion as a "buyer/seller" market where a price will move and adjust to a point where an even amount are on both sides - except it almost rarely actually moves so drastically to fit the 50/50 equation in this industry. (2) [and this is where i think I have fallen victim/what I was referring to in my post] the line will just move for the sake of making people - like me - read into it more than I should. Since it's evident that a line will usually move if heavy money is placed on one side, they take advantage of that fact, and i guess you could say "fake" heavy action by moving a spread/total. What I was referring to was movement that would, for example, go up 1 point, then down half a point etc... my confession is that i got away from just picking sides based on my real intuition, and just using other indicators as confirmation. I allowed all this "fix" talk to really get to my head. A large majority of my most recent plays haven't necessarily been picked by going "against the public" per say, which people claim is the right way to go (it isnt), but rather, I would stupidly try to anticipate what the books really wanted out of games, who they preferred to be up at half time for example so that they could get additional action on a losing side. This is ludicrous of me, no need to come here and reiterate that. I was wrong in that thought process, I am aware. I have gone through these stretches before and have adjusted my approach. Alright, I hope that explains it. If you don't understand, then I'm sorry, but that's all i can say.

2nd Half Miami -3.5 (**** 4 STARS ****)