thatyoungmitch

Record: 12-16 (-$133.80). Slow progress.

Hard Legion/alternate attax (Alternate Attax ML @+110)

Hard Legion has been very good lately, but they've been mired in best of three competition.  I think if Alternate Attax gets the map pick they want, this is a 50/50 match and there's value in the underdog.  Best of ones often come down to who starts best and I think Alternate Attax can get off to a fast start here.

Godsent/Vitality (1.5 unit on Godsent +1.5 @-190, 0.5 unit on Godsent ML @+175)

It's juicy, but I like the collective skill of Godsent's snipers to overpower Vitality and Zywhoo on at least one map.  Vitality is super inconsistent and even though Godsent got owned in their last match, I still think they've been an overall pretty strong team.  Great odds on the underdog here.

fnatic/Movistar - no bet.

Not touching this one.  I just can't figure Movistar out, so who knows which version of the team shows up.

North/Heretics (North ML @+130)

North has been very impressive lately and this is without their best player.  I'm not sure if Kjaerbye is playing.  If he is, they'll have even more firepower, but even if he doesn't jumpy has been filling it OK and I actually think he helps them with more cohesive strategy in rounds, being a coach.  He doesn't get anywhere near the number of kills as the rest of the team, but I think the strategic edge could help.

Copenhagen Flames/Ence (Flames ML @+160)

I think by now, we know that the Flames will pick Inferno and win that map.  But, Ence has been somewhat inconsistent on the rest of their map pool and the aggressive style of play of the Flames can catch a lot of teams off guard.  I think if the Flames pick first and win on Inferno, they have a great chance at winning one of the next two maps.

Hoping to get in the positive by the end of the day with all these plus odds.  May post more with Blast Rising, though best of ones are harder for me to cap.

Eh...Order loses the second map and then the match after being up 12-3 in the second.  Pretty embarrassing stuff, but they are a young team, I guess.  +1.5 map still comes through so +$50 there.

The rest of the bets:

Endpoint +1.5 @-125

Complexity somewhat inconsistent for me and Endpoint has been very good on their map picks.  Good chance for an undervalued team to steal one here.

Espada +1.5 @-190, ML +170 for 0.5 units

Espada is rounding into form, whereas Virtus.pro continues to be frustrating and inconsistent.  I've noticed that when Virtus.pro loses, they typically lose very badly, so counting on Espada to score the upset if they can take the first map and rattle VP.

Hard Legion +1.5 @+125

Great value here in a match the underdog could definitely win.  S1mple is fragging out of his mind for NaVi and they're still losing matches they should win, which tells something about the state of the rest of the team.  CSGO is hard to win if you're counting on one guy to get all the kills and Hard Legion is a tough and aggressive young team.  I like them to steal a map here.

pro100 ML @+125

I think pro100 is actually the better and more talented team here.  Syman did well to beat NaVi in three maps in their last match, but I think that overvalues them headed into this one.  This match is a 50/50 contest at best.

Copenhagen Flames +1.5 @-170

A little juicy as well, but the Flames have been crushing Inferno lately and that's one of mousesports' worst maps.  Mousesports has also really slipped in form throughout this qualifying tournament and I think the Flames can continue to press the issue and take the first map.

Faze -1.5 @-170

Pretty simple here, even at these odds. Faze has been cruising and contact has been getting worse with each match they play.  This one should be in the bag and over very quickly in two maps.

Godsent -1.5 @+175

I'm taking these huge odds on the team with the more talented players and which has been improving steadily over their last several matches.  Movistar lost 0-2 to a team that had a stand-in coach playing in their last match and I think that's basically the writing on the wall for this team.  They've got the talent to make this a battle, but do they have the motivation?

Furia -1.5 @+125

Gen G does not impress me at all.  They win against weaker teams, but when they come against any sort of aggression, they seem to fade away without much of a fight.  Furia is one of the most aggressive teams in the tournament with players capable of hitting 20 frags without breaking a sweat.  There's a chance this goes three, but I like these odds on Furia not dropping a map.

Cloud 9/Liquid over 2.5 maps @+125

I think this one will be a messy match that Liquid should win.  Liquid is the much better team, but Cloud 9 has pulled off some great map wins when they need to, and Liquid has not been anywhere near the form that they have shown in the past.  I think both teams split map picks and this goes three.

Order looking very strong here.  +1.5 maps already a winner @+100, hope they close it out for the +395 ML win.

Adding the last late night bet.

Tiger ML vs Tyloo for 0.5 units @ +185 and over 2.5 maps for 0.5 units @ +100

Similar to the Order bet, Tiger has looked very consistent and strong during this qualifying competition. They took a map off Vici and had two convincing 2-0 victories in a row.  On the flipside, Tyloo is probably the most well-known of the Asian CS teams, but they've looked really rusty in competition lately and even lost 0-2 to D13, who are not at all a good team.  I think Tyloo knows that they'll be able to get into to Rio anyway, so I think the hungrier team has a great chance in this final.

Updated record: 5-10 (-$236.90)

Took a day off to regroup, bleeding little losses.

One that starts soon - Order/Renegades (Order +1.5 for 1 unit, Order ML for 0.5 units)

Order has looked fairly competent this entire qualifying tournament and they have the firepower to hang with the favorite here, especially in a best of 3. While Renegades is the better team, they've avoided some losses by narrow margins and I think their luck is bound to run out sooner rather than later

The rest of the bets:

Gambit Youngsters/Winstrike (Winstrike ML @-145)

Winstrike had a slight stumble in their last match, but they're the overall more consistent team. If GY picks first, any of the maps I see them choosing, Winstrike also does really well on, while Winstrike has several maps that they could pick that GY would struggle on.  Could be a 3 map match, but Winstrike the more solid team.

Nemiga/Spirit (Nemiga +1.5 @-139, 0.5 units on Nemiga ML @+267)

Spirit has looked fantastic in their last four matches, but their competition hasn't been anything too amazing to me.  In fact, Nemiga has basically beaten the same teams as Spirit has, although they did lose to Winstrike twice.  Nemiga isn't a household name, which is why I think they're undervalued here. They have the talent to steal a map (probably Mirage) and they really could win this.

forze/Unique (no bet)

Yuck. If I had to bet this, I would wait for the map picks and then take a +6.5 handicap on Unique to win on their map pick.  I don't think they're as bad as the results they've been posting and forze has been choke city lately.  But, can you really Unique with confidence after they've already posted a 0-16 scoreline this tournament?  Pass.

G2/contact (contact +1.5 @+149)

Yes please at plus money.  G2 is hardly unbeatable and they've dropped maps recently to Copenhagen Flames and mousesports. Contact is a talented bunch that apparently can't close matches.  They've lost their last four or five matches 1-2.  But if you're giving me plus money to steal a map, which seems to be what contact are best at, I will happily take the bet.

Movistar Riders/North (Movistar Riders ML @+139)

I don't really understand the odds here. North has done nothing for me to warrant being the favorite and they've been incredibly shaky lately. Movistar hasn't done that well recently in competition, but they've had a few best of one matches that they've posted good results on, so I feel they may be warming back up.  Good value on what is a better team, IMO.

Liquid/100 Thieves (Liquid ML @-180)

A little juicy, but Liquid really needs to win this to move up in their group and I think they are the overall more talented and bolder team (which counts for something in CSGO.) 100 Thieves is on a good run, but they also can choke away matches against teams that are capable of hitting insane shots and clutches and Liquid is definitely one of those teams.  Possible value in Liquid 2-0 as well, I think.

That's it for the Road to Rio bets.  May add more Blast Cup and Australian qualifying later on. Lots of CSGO tomorrow. Good luck!

Adding a few more half unit bets overnight:

D13/Mazaalai (Mazaalai -1.5 @+150)

Mazaalai is one of the better teams in this group and although they lost 0-2 to Tyloo yesterday, they played both maps extremely close against the most experienced team in the group.  D13, meanwhile, couldn't even get to double digits on either map against Camel Riders, an average team, losing 0-2 as well.  Value here for Mazaalai to want to easily capture this win and dominate D13 on both maps.

Fate/Nordavind (Fate +3.5 @-125)

A bit of a contrary bet from what I'm seeing.  Most bettors seem to be on Nordavind, who are definitely the better team.  My angle is that generally, these best of one matches can be super tight, and Nordavind has to take on Heroic, a very good team, in a best of three for the Loot.Bet semifinal (with a bigger prize pool.) If Fate comes out flat, Nordavind could build a big lead and still cover this handicap, but I'm taking a half unit chance on the idea that Nordavind (who I have seen put up some stinkers when they don't come in focused) are looking ahead to their match against Heroic and if Fate can string some good rounds together, may just give 50% effort.

Just going to keep posting here.  Disappointing start.  Posting a $100/unit bet for simplicity's sake.

Record: 1-4 (-$154.90, including half unit bets in the total.)

Two half unit bets for the Asian qualifying rounds.  

Tiger/Vici (Tiger +1.5 @+143 for half a unit)

Vici demolished Lucid Dream, but LD is really terrible and Vici has more accomplished players.  That said, Tiger scored a solid win against Beyond in their first round and they've got a pretty cohesive team.  One thing to note is that Vici has players that haven't played competitive CSGO in a while and sometimes that can mess with timing.  It's qualifying, so it isn't unusual to see better teams drop map picks, especially if they are close, and Tiger is pretty good at Dust if they get first pick.  Worth the value at half a unit IMO.

Lucid Dream/Beyond (Beyond ML +152 for half a unit)

Another value pick based off having the misfortune to watch the Lucid Dream match yesterday on Twitch.  They were below amateur level.  Maybe they just had an off day, but one thing I noticed is that there are players of several different nationalities on the team that haven't played that much together and that might contribute to some communication issues when playing online vs. LAN.  There were a few instances against Vici where LD mistimed defuses or did some really weird positioning that seemed to indicate they aren't fully on the right page.  I don't like them to be this big of a favorite, so solid value here.

Back later for the ten people who read this with tomorrow's bigger matches.

Never posted in the e-sports forums before, but since it's one of the only things we have right now, I'm going to give it a shot.

I think there's definitely $ to be made and even thought there's definitely some volatility, I think there's a lot more data to make educated bets on CSGO of all things than the table tennis and Russian short form hockey that everyone else has been betting up to this point.  IMO, those table tennis matches are like flushing your money down the toilet.

So here we go:

Current Record: 0-0

Hard Legion/Espada (No bet)

Two average teams, not a lot to play for. Hard Legion probably wins, but who really knows. No bet.

pro100/Natus Vincere (pro100 +1.5 @ +110)

Natus Vincere has more name recognition, but they've been pretty underwhelming in this tournament, whereas pro100 have been playing better and better together as a team with every match and have a chance to solidify their spot at the top of their group with a win.  There have been so many NaVi matches where they just ride S1mple's insane skills to victory, while the rest of the team underachieves.  Not a winning strategy to 2-0 a good team like pro100, so the value is here for pro100 to win a map.

Syman/Virtus Pro (Syman +1.5 @ -150)

Syman is a solid and improving young team, whereas VP have struggled to meet expectations and have been losing a lot lately.  Good odds on what is essentially a 50/50 match.

fnatic/Complexity (no bet)

I don't see much value here.  Complexity likes to play three map matches, but fnatic is way better than them, so could easily 2-0.  That said, when is the last time fnatic looked like fnatic?  Not touching that ML of -345.  Either way, it's a no bet.

Vitality/Ence (over 2.5 maps @-105)

Thinking they split map picks here since neither team is that consistently great and both are subject to lapses in focus.  Zywhoo and allu will probably go off on their team's respective map picks and Vitality will win the third map in a close one.

Cloud 9/Envy (over 2.5 maps @-105, 0.5 units on Envy ML @ +115)

Cloud 9 chokes a lot.  Envy is really just as good and they have the talent to win at least one map, if not win the match outright.

That's it for now.  May update this with bets from the Australian and Asian qualifying rounds for Road to Rio after some research.  Australian and Asian CSGO teams are a lot less talented than the European and North/South American teams, so there's more volatility, IMO, but I may find some value.

I'm pretty sure I'm out of luck on this one, but wanted to get a second opinion.

The CPBL game between the Brothers and the Lions was last night/early morning and I wagered on it.  The closing line on the total was 13.5, but because CPBL games are so early in the morning, I missed my alarm and got into the game when it was in the top of the second inning and the score was 1-0 for the Uni Lions.  Since the score was still low, I was able to get in two bets - one on the total at over 14 (-115) and what I thought at the time was a live line for the total at over 12.5 with extra juice (-145.)  For anyone familiar with Bovada totals, you'll know that the site usually offers juiced alternate totals during games, and this 12.5 bet was in the same location on the site where those bets usually pop up.

Anyway, long story short, the game ends 8-5, missing the original total by the hook, with like a million runners left on base.  I'm super frustrated to lose the over 14, but when I placed the over 12.5 at higher juice, my wager amount was more, so I'm thinking, cool, I'll at least break even.

Bovada grades both bets as a loss.  I'm confused, since the total ended at 13 runs, I should at least win my over 12.5, right?

I use their live chat and also fire off an email and they say they'll look into it.  I get an email back that says, yes, it was graded incorrectly and they've credited me the funds.  I check my balance.  Nope.  No credit.  Bet still graded as a loss.

I fire off a second email.  This time, I get an email back saying, actually, the bet was graded correctly because the bet was for the total of the Brothers only at over 12.5 runs.

So now, when I check back into my bets, it does in fact say "Total - Chinatrust Brothers" under the wager I placed.  So I guess technically, they are right.  However, I don't remember that team total being the bet I originally placed, but I obviously don't have any way of proving that.  But when you think about it, how does it make any sense that the live total for ONE TEAM would be just one run less than the game total only one inning into the game and when that team has zero runs on the board?  It's just so obvious that the wager should have been for the game total, not a team total.

What do you guys think?  Did Bovada pull a bait and switch on me?  Am I dumb for not double checking my bet? I fired off another email asking to at least grade my bet as a push then, and detailing the logic behind it, but I'm not optimistic.  It's not a lot of money in the grand scheme of how much I wager and I obviously was managing my bankroll, but it's just the principle of it all that irritates me, I guess.  Any suggestions on how I can get my money back or should I just trust that the bet was a team total bet when I placed it and it's my fault for not double checking.

Very true.  It was weird because he was down a break in the second set too and then fought back to win it and then suddenly he’s double faulting by a mile and hitting tweeners into the stands.  didnt have much on it so it’s hard to be too mad even with losing the total by the hook because of the tank, but it surely was a weird clown show to watch live.

I so want to call match fixing, but with tennis cracking down on punishing match fixers, I don’t think it would be.

i don’t understand someone so obviously tanking a match from the first point of set 3 after fighting back to take set 2.

also, yes, I lost money on this.  Took a live bet of over 25.5 games at the beginning of the second set.  Such a horrible beat, there’s nothing to do but laugh it off.