The_X_Factor713

from yesterday - outcomes

4 plays today

Vandy +12 p.s. 71-73 Winner - 62-67

Clemson +9 and over 120.5 p.s. 70-64 - upset alert Loser - 36-61

 Lsu +3 p.s. 74-67 - upset alert Winner 77-65

Good luck all!

Marq/Xav under 164.5 p.s. 71-75

BCOL +6.5 p.s. 66-62 - upset alert

SJST +21 p.s. 57-69

UC River +10.5 p.s. 66-64 - upset alert

Col St +15.5 p.s. 64 - 70

Good luck all!

4 plays today

Vandy +12 p.s. 71-73

Clemson +9 and over 120.5 p.s. 70-64 - upset alert

 Lsu +3 p.s. 74-67 - upset alert

Good luck all!

Austin Peay +1 p.s. 71-63

Quin +3 p.s. 85-79

Elon -1.5 p.s. 77-66

Ctdl +19 and under 164 p.s. 72-73

Charlotte under 143 p.s. 66-67

FIU +9.5 p.s. 65-66

Marist +5.5 p.s. 77-67

UIC under 152 p.s. 138

Drexel +12.5 p.s. 67-70

Rider +2 p.s. 77-67

Wake/NCST under 157 p.s. 72-76

Rice +8 p.s. 70-66

SEMO under 160 p.s. 75-69

UVA over 117.5 p.s. 69-60

Wofford under 150 p.s. 72-69

Ccar/USA under 140.5 p.s. 64-67

App st +8 p.s. 76-71

Denver under 152 p.s. 71-72

Suta +8 p.s. 73-74

TxSt -7.5 p.s. 74-57

Tmar +4 p.s. 69-63

NoAz +8.5 p.s. 68-70

Mich/Neb over 132.5 p.s. 75-74

UNCA/Win under 159 p.s. 68-78

Pepper/Pac under 149.5 p.s. 66-70

Cal Poly +7.5 p.s. 74-65

GL ALL

Ohio pk p.s. 77-73

Clst +15.5 and the over of 158.5 p.s. 91-76

St. Peter +4 p.s. 67-66 possible ML bet

VCU +3 p.s. 73-72

Ewash -2 ps 73-69

Iupui under 148.5 p.s. 71-63

Iona -13.5 p.s. 81-66

Jmad under 158.5 p.s. 73-77

Marsh-3 p.s. 92-77

Manhattan +4 p.s. 70-71

Elon -7 p.s. 87-72

UMD +4.5 p.s. 71-66 possible ML bet

Keeping it light today

GL ALL

Full list

19 picks so here goes

Mercer -6.5 and under 145 p.s. 75-61

Quin -6.5 p.s. 79-66

La Salle -1.5 p.s. 73-66

Harvard +6 p.s. 62-64

Yost/Oak under 165 p.s. 71-77

UCF and over 125 p.s. 76-63

NIowa/Inst over 125 p.s. 66-68

Furm/Chat over 139 p.s. 79-71

NDAM/GTEC over 128.5 p.s. 72-70

Ford/St Bon over 136.5 p.s. 68-80

VMI -2 p.s. 66-54

Most -2.5 p.s. 73-62

LSU +9 p.s. 82-76 - possible ML play

Minn +4 p.s. 83-72 - possible ML play

Wyom +2.5 p.s. 86-78 - possible ML play

Col +11 p.s. 74-75

UNLV -9.5 p.s. 91-74

GL ALL

Went 5/10 yesterday and with limited time at the moment here are some predictions for the games I've run across so far

Mercer -6.5 and Under 145 pred score - 75-61

Quinnipac -6.5  pred score 79-66

La Salle -1.5 pred score 73-66

Harvard/Wofford under 135 pred score 62-64

I'll post some later if time permits

GLA

And just to make it interesting and shoot myself in the foot real quick - here are some more with predicted scores. 

Kent St pk 74-66

Buff -5 84-71

Cent Mich ml 72-63

Dayton -2.5 72-59

BC +14.5 74-76

Duquense +9 69-68

Butler/Creighton over 82-85

Wisc/Nebraska over 76-73

Kent St pk

Buffalo -5

Central Mich ML

Dayton -2.5

Been gone a while working on a formula, so these are just test predictions at the moment but the average of all the formulas show these as having a good chance. 

You are correct. Good catch!

Lets hope there is some truth behind these numbers today.

Its the average of -4.4 and -7.8 

7.8 + 4.4 = 12.2 / 2 = 6.1

The rest of the Pads are:

IN favor of (pad)

Iowa St (2.5)

La Salle (1.5)

San Fran (1)

Ohio (1.5)

UTA (2.7)

So today we are going to try something new. With yesterday being a dog day - 23 dogs covering vs 19 favorites covering - we have started to look deeper into the stats.

There will be no x factor today but instead picks based on Home vs Away stats

First Pick

Valpo +16

You can call this a road game, but being an hour and a half away from each other, its almost neutral ground. 

The swing of the game is 11.6, meaning Purdue outscores their opp. by 31.2 at home and Valpo outscores their opp by 19.6 on the road so 31.2 - 19.6 = 11.6. If you look at the teams Purdue have played at home, its not that impressive so we feel those numbers are a bit inflated. The same could be said for valpo, and most of their away games have been on neutral ground. So we will stick with 11.6. 

At home Purdue scores 92.4 and on the road Valpo scores 84.2 with a difference of 8.2. 

With a spread of 16, there is a difference of -4.4(swing - spread) on the swing and -7.8(score diff - spread) on scoring diff. This means the spread is technically too high by between 4.4-7.8 points. 

If you work the diffence of the new adjusted number (6.1) you can use that to subtract from the spread (16) and see that the spread should be +10.

Another, and much easier way is to combine the swing and point sc spread and divide by 2 - so 11.6+8.2 = 19.8 / 2 = 9.9 making the new spread +10.

The line is padded by 6 points.

Mix in Valpo being a better rebounding team as well and hopefully that offsets the turnover and foul difference that favors Purdue. 

Second pick

UNC Greensboro -5

The effective swing on this game is 29.8 but the point score difference is -0.2. 

So you add the two 29.8 - .2 = 28.6 / 2 = 14.3 and you see the spread should be -14.5

The line is padded by 9.5 points.

Third pick

Gtown -20.5

The effective swing on this game is 40 and the point score difference is 14.6. 

Combining the 2 gives you 54.6 and dividing by 2 gives you the new spread of -27.3. 

The line is padded by 7 points. 

I confused myself atleast 30 times writing this up so hopefully a math person can either verify it or vilify me. 

Good luck all!

Today seems like an underdog kind of day 

We only have 

Favorites:

Xavier 9x (out of 15x)(betting)

N. Kentucky 6x(betting)

Kansas 6x(betting)

Unders: 

UH Under 6x (out of 11x)(betting)

BYU Under 6x (betting)

Dogs:(Watching all) this is a test of the numbers to see how it reflects outcomes

S. Illinois

Washington St.

N. Texas

Wyoming

All of these dogs had 0x going for the favorite

Good luck all!

Results:

Duke (-25) 10x Winner

Creighton (-19.5) 10x Winner

Mich St. (-14.5) 8x Loser

TCU (-4) 8x Winner

Arkansas (-16) 7x Winner

Minnesota (-7) 7x Loser

Texas A&M (-3) 7x Loser

Looks like (and i guess its obvious) the 10x's are a pretty solid bet.

X Factor Sheet 4-3

X Factor People 2-3

On to tomorrow!

The last 10x we posted was the UNC win that we passed on - i believe it was against Tulane and they won by 24 - the spread was 19.5.

Sorry for the confusion

Glad we didn't bet the farm on that game, there is something about the Oklahoma team that just doesn't feel right. It looks like they have the talent, but they are sloppy... dont really control the ball as good as they should be. 

Oh well. 

0-1

Picks will be coming out shortly for tomorrow - it looks to be an interesting day

I cant say I personally am a huge fan of Oklahoma, but the sheet is reporting that in situations like this, teams are more likely to cover the spread. The bet I placed wasn't a particularly large bet, but it is enough to make the game watchable.