theclaw

Bucks hanging..................

......I'd like to see Nuggets win myself but never bet with my heart.

Will be cheering for them now that I don't have any action on the game.

........thanks mac

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Nuggets win SU ............   ....but for me There is good info to go the other way as well.

To iffy a game.

Bucks +8 over Pacers --- .55 units

I'll  take small action on the Bucks. With Pacers off a 26 pt blowout win and 2-0 SU & ATS at home with a 19 pt big win in game 1 the line has become Inflated.

Dame I doubt is worth all those extra pts Bucks are getting

Dame player efficiency  rating in the playoffs is 6.7. Given his injury situation this season, just coming back in playoffs he is clearly not worth all those pts.

And I see so many thinking Pacers win easily no doubt. Sports betting is not that easy as the lune is a great equalizer and books are using it to even things up.

Big line adjustment on the Clippers but this line could be justified. Either way I wouldn't use that as a reason to back Nuggets in this spot.

I made a mistake backing Nuggets.

Series tied 2-2 we don't use my lines but back the team to win the series.

If we give Clippers the 2.25 pts Luka was worth Clippers would be the better team by a good amount.

Also Luka worth 1.83 pts in PR II which is more balance rewarding rebounding  more.

Kawhi is the 2cd best rebounder on Clippers. Clippers already .1 better without Kawhi additional pts makes Clippers much better.

Better in both PR's by  more then 1 pt I'd have to favor Clippers to win game 5. With only -2 a win = a cover.

I am only giving a rough estimate to Kawhi's worth, I dont know for sure. But we can't rule out He could be worth that much and more or he could be worth less . To much of a guessing game to take action on this game.

I'll  buy off onto Clippers and I found a better line so opens possibility of a push and a win.

Still liking the OVER

Clippers -1.5 over Nuggets --- 1.1 units

Nuggets +2 over Clippers --- 1.1 units

 Nuggets/Clippers OVER 208 --- 1.1 UNITS

Celtics -11.5 over Magic --- .55 units

I see Holiday out.

Celtics also have a line adjustment with line  in game 1 -13.5 and now -11.5.

I haven't looked into any injuries yet though.

Play is on the Celtics

Pacers -8 or -7.5 is to many pts , I'd lean Bucks.

Dame not worth that many pts. 

Knicks/Pistons I'll pass.

Clippers are better with Kawhi back but not by 4 or 5 pts. 

Play is on the Nuggets.

And a ridiculous large line adjustment on the total from game 1 in Denver. Covers has game 1 at 225 and now it is 208, crazy.

I didn't  get the game 1 so I'll  go off covers line but game 2 was 217.5 even off game 2 the adjustment  is ridiculous. 

Play is on the OVER.

MY LINES .................Tuesday

Celtics -13.2 over Magic

Knicks -4.84 over Pistons

Pacers -1.93 over Bucks

Nuggets -4.8 over Clippers 

We have 3 teams in closeout games . We don't use my lines in closeout games.

We back the stronger teams, especially  those with common denominators  of past champs. Celtics being just that and the only team of the 3.

In more evenly matched series  it is more likely the team will not close it out on the first try.

1-0, won 1 unit

season --- 7-6, won 2.1 units

Incredible Cavs beat OKC's 51 pt defeat with their own 55 pt beatdown.

Not surprised to see these big blowouts since both Cavs and OKC rated out very strong with both over 9 in PR I. But over 50 pts wins are indeed a little ridiculous. 

Rockets got the cover  even with Jimmy back.

Cavs -8.5 over Heat --- 1.1 units

Cavs in a closeout game. Closeout games we don't use my lines.

Cavs off a big blowout win, strong teams like the Cavs off only 1 big blowout win are good teams to back.

Cavs being the 2cd ranked team with a very good shooting efficiency  margin of 4.6% are very good to back in closeout games. However games 4 and 5 are not the best games to back them but here in this spot I'd back Cavs.

With Pacers up 3-1 and Dame out the Cavs Will want to wrap up this series, get extra rest then the Pacers. Although they don't really need it but teams look for any advantage they can get especially considering Celtics on deck after Pacers.

If Warriors are to win this series more then likely they win game 4.  Rockets are not very good especially as a 2 seed but the Warriors without Jimmy aren't  very good either. 

If Jimmy is out again I'd consider backing Rockets if line moves up some.

MY LINES ......................Monday

Cavs -4.74 over Heat

Warriors -2.66 over Rockets .....without Jimmy

Warriors -4.91 ..... with Jimmy

0-2, lost 1.1 units

season --- 6-6, won 1.1 units

Another close brutal loss for Piston. They can't seem to close out these games 

Bucks lost Dame with what might be pretty bad injury. Not sure how much that affected the team but they were pretty pathetic.

I did hit the Over and Twolves and Celtics did get it done.

Crazy went 3-2 but 0-2 on plays I made.

Bucks -3.5 over Pacers --- .55 units

I still lean OVER , line did drop to 224 but back to 226.5. Will pass on any action.

My bad, I was thinking Nuggets up 2-1.

At 2-2 it's  a different story...............

Thanks for pointing that out ...........