theclaw

Good job you got the win ...............

Yep, it's coming ...............

When you least expect it , bang ...............

I can understand people liking the Chiefs for sure. They always seem to get it done regardless............

0-2-1 , lost 1.4 units

Boy oh boy oh boy, Texans hung in there pretty good but KC's defense made the big plays when needed.

Spags ran those blitz at the right time and Texans didn't seem to make any adjustments.  Having some hot receivers, some dump off routes.

At some point Texans offense needed to score but they couldn't do it the KC defense too tough for them.

Did get the push with that safety at the end. Good thing I waited out the line and found the +9 at my local book.

I did see covers in the contest had Texans +10 I did play that but I never saw a +10 anywhere I can make a play.

Maybe that was off-shore books.

Eagles -6.5 (-118) over Rams --- 1.18 units

Ravens -1 (-115) over Bills --- 1.15 units

saw a guy on you tube says public on KC but not overly large.

Texans +9 over KC --- 1.1 units

Texans +6 1st half --- 1.1 units

Tie in 1st half +950 --- .3 units to win 2.8 units

I pointed out some years ago how Mahomes was winning in similar ways to Brady and if you wanted a crystal ball just look at what Brady did and that should be what Mahomes does.

OK, after Brady won his 3rd SB in 4 years and the year after he repeated.

Mahomes has won his 3rd SB in 5 years and is now in the year after he repeated .

Brady over the his next 8 playoffs, does not in include 2008 season when he was out with injury.

6-11 ATS...........2 of the 6 ATS wins in WC game

1-5 ATS off a ATS win

Only 1 ATS winning year of the 8 and that was not the next seasons off his repeat and involved winning ATS in WC game.

His 1st playoff game off a bye 0-1 ATS

His 1st Divisional round game 0-1 ATS not the same game as off a bye

 A stretch of  Over 3 playoff years ........ 0-5 ATS...4 playoff years 1-7 ATS.

Backing these over-valued teams does not seem like a good idea no matter how great the QB might be.

Home teams -6 or less with a lean on my lines to the dog............. PT I

23-16 SU....59%

16-23-1 ATS ....41%

PR II .........10-6 SU & 5-11 ATS

this has won more recently because Mahomes has beat the method but not when he was -7 or bigger favorite.

Bucs hammered  Wash in both QB PASSER Rating and ave per pass.  Very unlikely a team could win the game being out-played by this amount.

Which clearly suggest more luck then skill on Wash side.

And I am not counting playoff games in WC round 

I don't count last game if team didn't play starters.

PTS PER PLAYS MARGIN ..............

2024 ......

1.Lions .168

2. Bills .162

3. Ravens .151

KC .035, 12th

21 years of data, 42 teams made the SB.

16 or 17 years at least 1 top 3 team made the SB of 21 years.

9 times both SB teams top 3

33 teams of 42 made SB rated .090 or better.

Now let's remember the surprise teams from the WC round back in 2000's. 6 made the SB, Including Giants twice, Ravens 2012, Zona 2008 with Kurt Warner amoyn6g others.

Throw out these 6 years and 6 teams and look how incredible this Stat gets.

Only 3 teams made the SB under .090.

In 15 years 9 times both SB teams in top 3.

When both teams made the SB the better team is 7-2 SU.

KC was over .090 in 3 of 4 SB's. 2021 KC was under .090 and lost to Bengals who were  .090.

Last year KC was under at .062.

Brady was under 1 time as well, 2018 season at .082.

Just because KC did it last year doesn't mean they can do it again. I say it is less likely not more likely. History does support my view.

You could make a case that maybe the Eagles could be top 3 after their injuried players returned. They did play on a much higher level but they did not do it over 16 or 17 games. Whether they could sustain that level over more games is not known.

But I suppose we can't really rule it out either.

The Ravens fit alot of teams including the 9ers last year who came on in the 2cd half of the year after being middle of the road a good part of the 1st half.

KC is likely getting knocked out at some point. 

I see so many on you tube thinking this team can't lose, mostly an over-reaction to last season when they did not play as well in regular season but came on towards the end and in playoffs similar to this season.

They believe exactly what pts per plays is telling us the opposite.

Teams don't do it twice, make SB under .090.

I'll  believe the info not the over-reaction to last year.

It's hard to Imagine you lose that.............

The only game I could possibly see is KC losing .

Exactly ...............