theclaw

As it turned out the Dolphins were the right play. I forgot to check the lines before game time. Had line stayed +2 or gotten better I'd have taken the Dolphins.

Next year I may post more of these type games where I disagree with sharps or guys on you tube.

I might do this in playoffs. Sometimes their reasoning don't make sense and that was the case when they wanted to back 49ers 

My other system ...............17-12

week .....3-1

A very good spot this week and the system delivered. The lone loss was the Bills which was not a good team to back.

This season the system had 3 good spots and is 6-1 in these spots.

Incredible, another winning week fading teams under 5 pt favorites in my new regression method, fading Jets and Jags.......2-0 ATS

How bout those Cowboys ........ up 23-14 at the half.

My other system goes to 2-0 with Falcons big win.

2 more games to go.

[Quote: Originally Posted by Mskeets]App your time n efforts sir.[/Quote

Pending play .............

Saints +14.5 (-115) over Packers --- 1.15 units

My only play remaining this week unless I decide to play Dolphins closer to game-time.

I've seen on you tube guys saying sharps were pounding the 9ers over Dolphins.

I'd have to disagree  with that play. I don't see why they'd like 9ers so much. They aren't good. Terrible in the red zone, lack any scoring efficiency. 

I'd lean Dolphins here and would consider taking half a unit on them.

Buy I'll wait out this line to see if it continues to rise. Closer to game time I'll decide being a 4:25 start time.

My new regression method...........

Last week was a disaster with teams over a 17 mismatch going 1-5 ATS.

We will  see if these teams can bounce back this week. 

Teams over 17 mismatch ......

LAC over Denver by 25.3

Lions over Bears by 18.5

Zona over Panthers by 17.4

LAC are won as Denver a fade on this method last week VS Colts could not survive being in regression 2 weeks in a row. 

The Lions game I'd more then likely pass on because all the injuries are what makes it appear Lions are due to play better.

There are some games where reading between the lines I'd have to pass . The method is saying Lions due to play much better but it is the injuries make it look that way not actual regression. 

Teams favored under 5 pts..........

Jags over LV by 2.7

Jets over Rams  by 4.6

We fade these 2 teams favored under 5 pts.

I have 6 weeks of data now and these teams under 5 have 1 win ATS. Like 1-11 ATS.

interesting  the only team to cover was Bills VS KC. No way I would have faded the Bills in that game. 

With such a great record I'd expect this to regress actually, but we will see if it does.

Correct .......

My other system ..................15-11

As I mentioned this week is a good spot to play this method. Spot has come up twice this season and is 3-0 ATS.

Now off to a good start this week.

Remaining plays ......

Boys +4 over Bucs

Falcons -8 (-120) over Giants

Bills -14 over Pats

I won't take any action on these games.

The 1 game I take some reluctance to is Bills. Seems this could be a flat spot for them after 2 big scoring weeks and just beating the Lions who were thought by many  to be the best team.

We'll  see how this goes but this week being a good spot I roll with this method regardless of my opinion.

Hoping for at least a 3-1 week for this system.

Thurs --- 1-0, won 1 unit

Sat --- 0-1, lost 1.1 units

My other system ...............15-11

1-0 ......with KC SU & ATS win.

Ravens really took it to Steelers, according to my PR II Ravens won the game by 18.42 pts almost right on the margin of the game.

Unfortunately Wilson losses that fumble inside the 5. All told there were 3 fumbles, 2 by Ravens, Ravens recovered all 3 fumbles. 

And the pick-6 By Wilson was too much to over-come. It came after a Steelers INT and very possible for Steelers to cover the +7 at that point.

Terrible pass by Wilson.

Thank you ......................

KC is 7th in yards per pts margin at 2.3 which is not so bad.

While Texans 16th at .3 which is not so good.

KC 12th at .039 in pts per plays margin which isn't the best but .....

Texans 14th at .020

KC more efficient  in both metrics.

Texans defense looks very strong, 1st in defensive Passer Rating , 2cd in ave per pass at 5.9, 1st in completion  %.

Could be the result of playing some pretty bad offenses but let's give them the credit.

Forced 28 TO's 2cd best and +13 on the year. 1st downs 3rd, 1st down % 4th at 34.4.

How does this equate to such poor efficiency?

Terrible in the redzone, gives up a TD at 64.7% of the time 28th in the league.

Offense not good. Stroud ave 5.78 per pass which is lower then the 2cd rank defense 5.9. So team is (-.12)

Stroud has a ridiculous  high sack rate at 8.98%.

Redzone is only 54.2% TD's. Makes them (-10.5%)

In redzone.

And very poor at penalties. They committed 102 opps 94 , not a big difference only 8 extra penalties.

But the yardage is big which indicates they are committing big yardage penalties relative to what opps commit. 

839 to 680 that is 159 extra yards on just 8 extra penalties. That equates to almost 20 yards per extra penalty. 

Texans and Stround not as good on the road as they are at home.

My other system has a play on KC ........14-11 on the season thus far.

This week is historically a good spot for this system. With 4 plays this week hopefully the method rolls up a very nice record.

My other system ..............14-11

KC -3.5 over Texans

not taking any action only posting the plays.

Steelers +7 (-115) over Ravens --- 1.15 units

Ravens move ahead of Steelers in pts per plays margin as Steelers  sink to 10th at .063 and below the .090 threshold of good solid playoff teams.

But yards per points margin the Ravens now are the worst of all the possible division winners dropping just below the Texans at very poor  .1

Ravens are not efficient at all with their yards while the Steelers are very good at over 3 yards. 

@darkmandave........

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