theclaw

Other system...........7-5 ATS

Pending play .....

Falcons -2.5 over Boys

I won't take action. Only tracking the record but in the right spots could take action.

Injured QB's can be sketchy, u don't know what u are getting .

I hope if they are letting him play he Is good to play well.

Wow that's incredible !!! ...................

Broncos ratio of blowout wins to close wins and close losses is excellent. 

They have played easy schedule but they have 4 blowout 14 pt wins or more. That might be the most of any team.

Their losses have been close 1 score losses. This is a very good indicator.

BOL. ..................

New Bounce Factor II .................

2 plays this week, Fade on the Lions and a play on the Titans.

I will track the record but may not always take action.

Since both these teams are also plays using my original BF I did take action on these games.

This method is 3-0 ATS this year. But I wont count that in the record just saying, games earlier In The season before I knew the proper parameters.

Thank you ...................

4 pending plays .........

Pack +3.5 (-115) over Lions --- 1.15 units

Dolphins +6.5 (-115) over Bills --- 1.15 units

Giants +3.5 (-115) over Wash --- 1.15 units

Titans -3 (-115) over Pats --- 1.15 units

1. Lions .238

2. Bills .204

3. Vikes .179

4. Steelers. 118

5. Broncos .118

6. Wash .102

7. Chargers .089

8. Bears .084

9. KC .078 ....... below .090 and .080

10. Pack .077

the 7 teams above .090, well Chargers right there just a fraction under.

But the top 5 have the .117 . The SB winner is most likely in this top 5.

I'll  be checking back with this list as 2cd half goes on.

Futures plays ............

Steelers to win AFC +1400 --- .5 units to win 7 units

Steelers to win SB +3300 --- .5 units to win 16.5 units

Only 6 of 64 teams to make the AFC or NFC Title game were outside the top 12 with rating below .025.

But 3 came in the 2 covid years. Which easily had the weakest teams make the title game. Back when players could opt out and no fans in the seats. And the uncertainty  of the situation. 

Understandable. 

There were only 2 teams of 64 that were out-played by opponents  make either title game.

2016 Packers (-.007) 17th, we are talking out-played by a fraction. 

That leaves Only 1 team of 64 over 16 years  that was completely  out-played by Nov 1st make the conference title game. 

2021 KC ranked 23rd with rating of (-.074)

But KC was in a very unquie  situation, off back to back SB's and off a SB loss and in covid.

Chances of a team being out-played by any decent amount in this metrics at this point of the season and making the conference finals is slim to almost none.

Pts per plays margin ....................

I went back to 2008 and included both covid years 2020 & 2021.

Everything I posted earlier holds true over 16 years.

SB Winners as of Nov 1st are 6th or better with a rating of .117 or better.

4 exceptions, Brady once, Mahomes once and way back when we were in the era of surprise  teams from the WC round are the other 2 exceptions.

2011 Giants and 2012 Ravens.

So 12 of 16 year, (75%) and the 4 exceptions  are very understandable.

 Brady was 4th with Mahomes 7th so not much difference  there.

Brady rating of .099 , Mahomes .092 and by the way Ravens .093.

.090 seems to be a cut off point of what the very good, solid playoff teams look like.

Neither Brady nor Mahomes has gone on to win SB when they were below .090 on Nov 1st. Both were below .080 at the time.

The only season Mahomes was below both .090 and .080 in 2021 he did not make the SB, the only season he failed to do that other then his 1st year as a starter. he lost the Bengals in the AFC title game.

Bengals 4th .169 as of Nov 1st.

This Stat is very telling.  The best teams are making themselves known right now.

Thank you ...............

Yes I am aware of that................

Titans -3 (-115) over Pats --- 1.15 units

Bounce Factor play on team, Titans also my new BF II play on team.

Very  surprised  when Titans opened -3.5, how are the Titans -3.5 over any team ? Was hoping it drop to at least 3, even lower.

Steve Fezzik  said his PR's had Titans over a 3 pt favorite. But then he said the same thing, how are Titans  -3.5 over any team  ?

Didnt make sense for him to say that if his PR's had Titans over 3.

I'll trust the BF on the Titans.

I think I have a fade on Steelers next week. But could have a fade on Wash as well if they win and cover VS Giants.

3 or less he has a great record.

Ravens I think have the best ATS record in 1st halves. This over many years .

Opps ...... Eagles don't play the Giants. But if they win SU & ATS they most likely become a fade playing Dallas at Dallas with Dallas being a home field regression  play on team.

Brings up a very nice spot.

Speaking Of home field regression, the Bills are a home field regression fade on both my original BF and my new BF II.

I look up the Lions but they don't fit any home/road splits for a regression  fade.

They fit overall regression  fade.

I do have regression plays on both Saints and Panthers. Geez.......... But unfortunately  they play each other.

Which means I will be holding my nose and backing the loser of this losers bowl next week and very likely upping my play with more units.

It will be a pretty good spot.