TheConductor

j- dawg... thanks for the call out.. I'm actually 2-3 on post. I'm hoping after tonight's 2 bets I will go 4-3. That should start a winning streak for you.

I'm a trends and stat kind of guy. So follow at your own risk

MTFN50

$PUR$ -4   &   UNDER 199

Bottom Line: Last year's NBA Finals loss to the Heat is all the motivation the Spurs will need in Game 1.  San Antonio has been unbeatable at home in the playoffs.  It is 8-0 in its last 8 home games with a 21.5-point average margin of victory in these contests.  Each of these wins came by at least 6 points.  Additionally, the home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with an average winning margin of 11.2 points.  Pound the Spurs.

Bottom Line: When the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, playing the UNDER on teams that scored 110 points or more in 2 straight games (San Antonio) has resulted in a 24-6 (80%) record since 1996 if they are matched up against an opponent that scored 60 points or more in the first half last game.  We've seen an average of only 182.9 total points scored in this situation.  This number is off the mark considering these teams have combined for 198 points or fewer at the end of regulation in 3 of the last 4 matchups.  Pound the UNDER.

Bottom Line: I'm taking the Thunder on the money line to rule out any sort of backdoor ATS loss in a game I fully expect them to win.  OKC has complete confidence at home where it is on a 9-0 run versus the Spurs.  All 9 wins have come by at least 6 points.  The Spurs are 0-3 in their last 3 road games, losing these contests by 11.0 points on average.  The Thunder are 4-0 in their last 4 at home, winning these by 8.5 points on average. The home team is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings with all 6 wins combing by 9 points or more.  Pound the Thunder.

Indiana +6.5

Simple theory here, perhaps a zig zag from last game.  The Pacers could not have played worse and the Heat could not have played better in the last game.  I look for Indiana to play vastly better and some regression from Miami here.  Too many points as the Pacers look to avenge a bad performance and I expect a lower scoring game which also favors the points.

I look for Indiana to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door with what I believe to be a healthy amount of points that it’s been afforded. Remember, the Pacers took the Heat to 7 games last year and have won in Miami each of the last two postseasons. This is a do or die game for Indiana, a 3-1 deficit would be just too big of a hole to climb out of in my opinion. Momentum, motivational and situational factors and many other things have to be taken into account from game to game in the postseason. During the regular season, I primarily base my selections more on numbers and lopsided trends and statistics, but in the Playoffs, it’s a much more fluid process for myself. Indiana jumped out to a huge lead in Game 3, but would slow its attack and ultimately flail horribly down the stre tch; I do firmly believe it’ll be much sharper today (note that Indiana had 19 turnovers which led to 26 Heat points): “The little brother (his team the Pacers) spends his whole life getting beat up by the big brother, getting beaten in sports, sporting events, 1-on-1 basketball and what-not," Indiana coach Frank Vogel assessed yesterday. "All those years of getting beat up builds him up to the point where he ultimately takes on the big brother." Note that the Pacers have actually led for 99 of the 144 minutes played so far in this series which equates to about 69 percent of the time. Miami could easily be in a 3-0 hole at this point but has used some epic rallying to save itself in each of its two victories. I expect another nail-biter and am grabbing as many points as I can.

San Antonio +2

Are you kidding me?  My power ratings have this at Spurs -4.5, that is a 6.5 overlay!  That is RARE in the NBA.  Call it a square bet, perhaps I have egg on my face but I am 100% confident the difference between these 2 teams is so far apart right now it is not recoverable for the Thunder, even at home to close the gap.  112-77 and you are getting 2 when I I posted this play?  Give the best team in the NBA and points??  Hell yeah!   Come on – OK City has 2 options to score, no Ibaka is KILLING them, and San Antonio is the best team left standing, the best team on the road in the NBA with the best coach in the NBA and the strongest bench in the NBA and the Spurs 3 stars are performing at the peak of their game.  Did I mention OK City has 2 scorers and Durant looks lost and is in a funk?  A home court advantage is not enough, the Spurs may close this out in 4 games, maybe 5 but they would need an epic fail in order to not sweep this series and rest up for Miami o r Indiana, and that is exactly their agenda, and with the experience they have on hand, they know the drill well and what awaits them on the road after an ass kicking they handed out in game 2, they will be ready.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

I'm going to make this short and very $weet !!

PARLAY

Miami Money line   -320 

Spurs Money Line   +115

Boston will look to avoid a series sweep at home tonight against Toronto.  Mark Buehrle is 7-1 with a 2.11 ERA on the season for the Blue Jays.  However, his lone loss came at home against Boston; the Red Sox have his number.  In that game back on April 25th, the southpaw allowed 7 runs and 12 hits in just 5.1 innings of work.  Buehrle has allowed 34 hits in his last four starts against Boston.  Jonny Gomes (10-30), Will Middlebrooks (8-18), Mike Napoli (6-21), Daniel Nava (4-12), David Ortiz (25-76), Dustin Pedroia (14-36) and AJ Pierzynski (9-22) all hit Buehrle hard.  Toronto’s bullpen has been over- performing in this series, and they can’t be counted on consistently as they own a 5.19 ERA on the season. 

Jon Lester is only 4-5 this season, but he has a 2.67 ERA in nine starts for Boston.  Lester has pitched much better at home, and he has allowed just 5 runs in his last three home starts against Toronto.  Jose Bautista (11-57), Edwin Encarnacion (8-39), Brett Lawrie (6-28), Adam Lind (3-29), Dioner Navarro (5-22), Colby Rasmus (3-15) and Jose Reyes (1-19) all have had their problems with Lester.  Toronto is hitting just .242 versus left-handed pitchers this season.  We expect Boston to notch a solid home win in this game on Thursday afternoon.

BET THE SOXS!!!

Picksbypete     

Agreed!

I’m playing on San Antonio and OKC to finish UNDER the total. The opening games of the Eastern and the Western Conference Finals had some similarities. In both cases, the home team won and covered. Also, in both cases, the game finished well below the total. However, as we saw last night in the East, that doesn’t mean we need to expect Game 2 to also be high-scoring. 

Game 2 in the East saw 33 fewer points scored than Game 1. As was the case last night, we’re getting a higher O/U line to work with for tonight’s game than we were for Game 1 of this series. While the combined score may not drop 30+ points again, I expect Game 2 of this series to also prove lower scoring than the opener. 

After OKC’s defensive struggles in Game 1, we may see more time from rookie center Steven Adams, as Brooks may look to a bigger lineup to try and slow down the Spurs. Either way, while the Spurs are obviously pretty tough to stop, I believe we’ll see a much better defensive effort from the Thunder tonight. Prior to Game 1 of this series, the Thunder had seen their final three games against the Clippers all stay below the total. Obviously the Ibaka injury doesn’t help - however, I still believe this team is more capable defensively than most probably do. Note that the UNDER is 12-8/60% the last 20 times that they were off a double-digit loss. 

With such a high O/U number, note that the UNDER is 8-1 the last nine times that the Spurs played a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. During that time, the Thunder have seen the UNDER go 7-4 when playing a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. Going back further and we find the UNDER at 12-6-1 OKC's last 19 in that situation. Meanwhile, if we go back still further we find the UNDER at 20-9 the last 29 times that the Spurs played a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. I feel this number is generously high and I expect those stats to improve tonight.

Agreed!

I’m playing on San Antonio and OKC to finish UNDER the total. The opening games of the Eastern and the Western Conference Finals had some similarities. In both cases, the home team won and covered. Also, in both cases, the game finished well below the total. However, as we saw last night in the East, that doesn’t mean we need to expect Game 2 to also be high-scoring. 

Game 2 in the East saw 33 fewer points scored than Game 1. As was the case last night, we’re getting a higher O/U line to work with for tonight’s game than we were for Game 1 of this series. While the combined score may not drop 30+ points again, I expect Game 2 of this series to also prove lower scoring than the opener. 

After OKC’s defensive struggles in Game 1, we may see more time from rookie center Steven Adams, as Brooks may look to a bigger lineup to try and slow down the Spurs. Either way, while the Spurs are obviously pretty tough to stop, I believe we’ll see a much better defensive effort from the Thunder tonight. Prior to Game 1 of this series, the Thunder had seen their final three games against the Clippers all stay below the total. Obviously the Ibaka injury doesn’t help - however, I still believe this team is more capable defensively than most probably do. Note that the UNDER is 12-8/60% the last 20 times that they were off a double-digit loss. 

With such a high O/U number, note that the UNDER is 8-1 the last nine times that the Spurs played a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. During that time, the Thunder have seen the UNDER go 7-4 when playing a road game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. Going back further and we find the UNDER at 12-6-1 OKC's last 19 in that situation. Meanwhile, if we go back still further we find the UNDER at 20-9 the last 29 times that the Spurs played a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. I feel this number is generously high and I expect those stats to improve tonight.

All respected responses... I could sit here and write up a lengthy response but I'm following through with the Strong system.

Just remember this pick and next time hop on the money express!!

Picksbypete    

Maybe after todays Under 212.5 Spurs/OKC game you will hop on aboard the money express..