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Welcome to my daily picks! I have a system that has done fairly well in the NBA the last couple of years. We are just looking for pure value with these plays. Over time we will all be winners. Embrace the process sharps!!! All plays will be 1, 3, or 5 units. Lets get it! 11/12/16: 0-0 Bulls Wizards 1H Over 100: 3 Units T Wolves +5.5 Over Clippers 1 Unit
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TheKrew | 1 |
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I am a Steph Curry fan and a former LeBron hater. But something just does not sit right about this Cavs team and the little amount of attention they have received.
The Cavs have been quietly dominating the East and I think this is the most motivated LeBron you will have ever seen in this series. All the talk has been about the Spurs, Warriors, and Thunder whoever gets out of the West is going to win the championship (blah blah blah). All the talk about Steph Curry being the unanimous MVP and the best team ever. LeBron is the best player on the planet. He will be highly motivated to prove he is the best and I just dont see him losing three finals in a row. You also have to realize how bad he wants to get a ring for the city of Cleveland. This is a very good Cavaliers team. They are rested and the Warriors are not going to have the best energy coming off three high pressure games. I believe the Cavs jump out and take game one here and end up winning this series in six with a fully healthy roster. They will get revenge after taking Golden State to six games a year ago without two of the best players in the NBA. Whatever happens, this series is sure to be an exciting one. The Cavs need to take one of these first two games. And if they do, I think they win the series with home court advantage now in their favor.
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TheKrew | 4 |
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Although not as large of a swing in the moneyline is expected for these plays. They will move against us, so get them in early or the value will be gone. Orioles -120 Astros +130 Angels +145 Nationals Marlins Under 8 +105
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TheKrew | 6 |
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Hedging Opportunity
Not guaranteed to happen but my info says in all likelihood it will. Firing Braves +150 for 4 units, will be hedging. Think this lands in the +120 to +125 range. If you can get it at that number still hit it large for free money.
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TheKrew | 6 |
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Meant to post that on last weeks thread, ignore lol.
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TheKrew | 6 |
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Took a day off. New thread is up:
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=102267709&page=1#reply
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TheKrew | 6 |
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Tuesday, April 19th Plays:
Pirates -134 (Play up to -138) Royals -136 (Play up to -143) Red Sox +100 (Up to +105) Indians -150 (Up to -153)
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TheKrew | 6 |
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Year To Date: All Plays: 50-35, 58.82%; +12.43 Units Avg Bet Run +/-: +0.16 Betting Philosophy: To put it simply, we are looking for pure value. I do not believe in money plays when it comes to baseball. There are some plays I like more than others, and I will say when I like a play more-so than others. But I will still be betting the same unit on those plays as all my others. Over time, the small value edges will add up and we will be profitable. Betting Amount: I use a different type of betting when it comes to the amount I am betting baseball. The most profitable way to bet baseball when flat betting (every play based around the same unit) is to have the average win/loss of a bet = your unit. Examples below for $100 bets. Team is +200: Bet $75 - Win $125 Team is -150: Bet $120 - Win $80 Team is -100: Bet $100 - Win $100 It takes a little math, but its pretty easy. This is the only way to do it to balance our plays completely so we dont win/lose more with bigger or smaller moneyline plays. Best of luck, lets have another good week!
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TheKrew | 6 |
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Adding:
Cubs Rockies Over 7 Braves Marlins Under 8
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TheKrew | 38 |
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Quote Originally Posted by TheKrew: Some days we have chalk, others we play dogs. This is where the value is today. Fire early these LINES WILL MOVE against our favor. White Sox +110 Padres +125 Twins +117 A's +115 Brewers +150 All I can do is put out the lines and hope you guys are there to get them in. Like I predicted, every single line has now moved where there is no longer value. In fact, every single one now offers a hedging opportunity. Early bird gets the worm, lol.
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TheKrew | 38 |
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Some days we have chalk, others we play dogs. This is where the value is today. Fire early these LINES WILL MOVE against our favor. White Sox +110 Padres +125 Twins +117 A's +115 Brewers +150
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TheKrew | 38 |
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4-0 Day. Cubs TT over was not posted. Now 3-3 on unposted plays so they have evened out. If you did not see above, sometimes I forget to post the play here but since I track these plays the same as my personal plays I include them no matter what. Rangers Orioles over 9.5 Runs Boston Red Sox -134 (Up to -138) Washington Nationals -164 (Up to -170) Cubs TT Over 4
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TheKrew | 38 |
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42-31; +10.09 Units
AVG Run Net +/-: +0.05 Saturday, April 16th Plays: Rangers Orioles over 9.5 Runs Boston Red Sox -134 (Up to -138) Washington Nationals -164 (Up to -170)
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TheKrew | 38 |
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Adding: Astros -192 (Up to -195)
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TheKrew | 38 |
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Adding Rangers +102
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TheKrew | 38 |
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Need the Rockies to hold on here for the big +265 cash
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TheKrew | 38 |
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Adding:
Reds +190 Padres +138 Yankees -135
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TheKrew | 38 |
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Rockies play didn't post yesterday, unfortunately. Had them +120. Still 2-2 for posted plays, but I track my personal plays the same as this thread so it will show as a 3-2 day.
39-27; +10.79 Units AVG Run +/-: +0.30 Friday, April 15th Plays: Rockies +265 Red Sox -110 |
TheKrew | 38 |
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Adding: Cardinals -172 Not usually this much of a chalk guy. But the value is there today. Full Card Right Now: Pirates -143 Cardinals -172 Blue Jays -151 Rays -115
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TheKrew | 38 |
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Adding:
Pirates -143 (Play up to -159)
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TheKrew | 38 |
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