undermysac

Fuck them they suck. Not putting a nickel on that team. Nor Pitt tonight, trying to stay away from TNF. 

The Titans are 7-26-1 ats in the 2H the last 2 years. 1-9 this year, beating the Bears in week 1

The Jets just fired their gm.

And they're favored again in week 13.

From my understanding, from all the podcasts I listen to, and all the bet% stuff throughout the year...I'd have to say that the Jets have taken the most square and pro $ this year.

Seriously, it feels like people are still waiting for them to turn the corner. 

They are pure poison imo.

Week 13 look ahead bets:

Packers -3.5(-110) *1.00/.91

Broncos -7(-110) *1.00/.91

Locked in 

@Cyrax

 Great job stepping up b2b weeks on the Newsletter. I'll do week 13 on Monday after work. There's a lot to navigate, weird schedule and such.

Got to thinking a little bit while looking at some look ahead lines.

There are 3 Thanksgiving games. Bears/Lions, Giants/Cowboys(gross), and Dolphins/Packers(7:20 pm central time, cold cold cold)

Will there be any looking ahead for these squads this week?

Also, as fate may have it, the Raiders play at KC on Friday. Maybe my fade of KC this week just got better?

Welcome to sports wagering. Is it your first year?

https://www.bleachernation.com/bears/2024/11/20/eberflus-speaks-wk12/

@Yanasaur

 https://youtu.be/_EW1pSPU4ZU?si=HB6RM_-RzXrErU-r

Matt Eberflus has fucked up so many games, in so many ways, that nothing would surprise me.

Also, I just read that DeAndre Swift is probably missing this game with a groin injury.

43-44-6 (-0.80) YTD

Cardinals ML(-105) *1.50/1.43

Panthers +11.5(-110) *3.30/3.00

Panthers ML(+490) *.70/3.43

Texans 1H -4.5(-110) *1.00/.91

Chargers 1H ML(+115) *1.00/1.15

Rams +2.5(+102) *1.00/1.02

Vikings 1Q ML(-130) *2.00/1.54

Vikings 1Q -0.5(+130) *1.50/1.95

Vikings 1H -1.5(-110) *1.00/.91

Did you know, that the Bears are the only team to have not scored first in any given game? They are 0-7-3 in the first quarter this year.

The Vikings are 8-1-1 in the first quarter this year. Including a 10-0 win vs the Lions.

The Vikings are #2 on offense epa per play in the 1Q, and the Bears are #27 in the 1Q.

Defensively the Vikings are #2 in the 1Q, and the Bears are #23 in the 1Q.

It looks like DeAndre Swift is missing this game. They traded Khalil Herbert to the Bengals 2 weeks ago. That leaves a slow footed(but strong) Roschon Johnson at RB. I can't even name another RB on the roster.

The best angle here, the Bears OC has only called one game in his career, vs Brian Flores, and Caleb is a rookie who hasn't come close to seeing a really tough defense. Until the Purple People Eaters come to town.

On the flip side, the Bears have been #1 in blitz rate the last 2 years. Eberflus likes to blitz from everywhere, including the secondary. This is not the way to attack Sam Darnold. He has been the best QB vs the blitz this year. Until recently, teams have stopped blitzing him and his play has fell off some.

https://youtu.be/_EW1pSPU4ZU?si=HB6RM_-RzXrErU-r

I'd like to think that the Bears have been watching that tape and noticing it as well. But I know this Bears coaching too well to know that they will continue to be themselves. Absolute idiots.

Kevin O'Connell>Eberflus 

Vikings sos #13

Bears sos #30

Vikings 1H PR #5(5.5), Bears 1H #24(-3.2)

Just some food for thought about the Bears vs Vikings. 

The Bears will be going up against a Brian Flores led defense, with an OC calling plays in his second game as an OC, with a rookie QB.

Matt Eberflus as a D coordinator likes to blitz with his secondary. The Bears have had the highest blitz rate the last 2 years. The key in defending Sam Darnold recently is to not blitz, the tape shows it. Darnold is excellent vs the blitz. Will the Bears call off the dogs?

As a fan I hope you're right, but unfortunately I won't be holding my breath. 

Common opponents:

AZ 3-2

SEA 2-4

Arizona sos #2

Seattle sos #16

Arizona expected wins: 5.5-4.5

Seattle expected wins: 4.8-5.2

The Steelers need 1 more win to go over 8.5 wins, which closed at +130.
The Bears need 5 more wins to go over 8.5 wins which closed at -140

The public is even worse on futures, than regular season betting. 

@Cyrax

 Balls of steel bet on the Titans. They are 1-9 ats this year. Lost their starting center 2 weeks ago. Will Levis...God help your soul, but the line is 1.5 pts too high.

Fields has started in 6 games, and has 10 total td's.

Caleb Williams has started in 10 games, and has 9 total td's. 

You are correct. They could have/should have traded for picks. Could have drafted at least 2 offensive linemen on top of who they drafted, and more picks down the road.

Instead they got Caleb, Odunze, and a bad ass punter.

43-44-6 (-0.80) YTD

Cardinals ML(-105) *1.50/1.43

Panthers +11.5(-110) *3.30/3.00

Panthers ML(+490) *.70/3.43

Texans 1H -4.5(-110) *1.00/.91

Chargers 1H ML(+115) *1.00/1.15

Rams +2.5(+102) *1.00/1.02

43-44-6 (-0.80) YTD

3-2-1 (+0.72) last week

Cardinals ML(-105) *1.50/1.43

Panthers +11.5(-110) *3.30/3.00

Panthers ML(+490) *.70/3.43

Don't look now, b2b winning weeks 

So you named the 6 worst ats teams in the nfl.

And things always trend down the same path in the nfl right?

I believe that all these teams were "no bet" teams in weeks 1 through 11. How they fair moving forward is unknown.