VTfarmer

Like the M's with Iwakuma to beat the Royals tonight.  He hasn't lost since 8/10 and shut out the Tigers last time out.

I know Royals are desperate, but I'll take Iwakuma over Santana tonight.

Consider the under, too.  But at 6.5, I like the M's to win better.

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Mariners -110 to win

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The Free Pick at Winnibet = Over 53

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NJWiseGuys - Like the free picks.  Thanks.

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Eagles -3 @ www.winnibet.com

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Free pick today at www.winnibet.com

Royals -105 to win.

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Free Pick @ www.winnibet.com has Royals -105 to win

See analysis below:

Sept. 18, 2013 – The Cleveland Indians took a big step forward in their quest for a wildcard berth last night as they came from behind to take a 5-3 victory over the Kansas City Royals, who are also in the hunt for an AL wildcard spot.

Tonight, these two teams will play the third game of this four game series.

With last night’s win, The Indians moved to within a half game of both Texas and Tampa Bay.  The two teams that currently occupy the two wildcard spots.  With a win tonight, they could occupy one of those spots themselves.

Kansas City fell 3 1/2 games out of the picture with the loss and now have virtually no room for error with only 11 games remaining.

Tonight, the Royals will send LH Bruce Chen (7-3, 3.11 ERA) to the mound.  Chen was moved into the rotation from the bullpen on July 12th and has been solid going 4-3, 3.44 in his current role.  Tonight will be his biggest start of the season.

Cleveland will send out rookie RH Danny Salazar (1-2, 2.66).  This will only be his ninth start in the majors.  Salazar has been steady, but since the Indians are limiting his pitch count he doesn’t pitch a lot of innings, so the bullpen figures to be a big factor.

With so much on the line for both teams this game is like a playoff game.  With the expanded September rosters, there is added flexibility for the managers, especially with the bullpen.  Cleveland used 7 pitchers last night, KC 6.  I believe Cleveland will have to dig at least as deep tonight with Salazar starting.

I think tonight’s game will be determined by pitching and here I give the Royals the edge.  Chen may not be a stopper, but he is a veteran who should give his team 6 or 7 innings before turning it over to the pen.  Cleveland’s Salazar does not figure to go that long, even if he is effective, taxing the Tribe’s relievers.  Plus, the urgency factor favors KC.

The Pick:  Kansas City Royals -105 to win

www.winnibet.com has Yanks +105 to win

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The Pick:  49ers +3

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ND +3 1/2

Under 50

Here's why.......

Tonight’s game will be the last visit to The Big House by Notre Dame for a while.  After next years game between these two rivals in South Bend, they will not be playing their annual battle as Notre Dame begins their commitment to the ACC.  The fact that Notre Dame chose to drop the Wolverines, yet keep playing Michigan State, is not lost on the Maize and Blue. Wolverine coach Brady Hoke says the Irish are “chickening out” of their series.  Good bulletin board material.  Let’s look at the matchup.

Notre Dame (13) and Michigan (17) are both coming in at 1-0 with easy wins last week.  The Irish beat Temple 28-6 and the Wolverines hammered Central Michigan 59-9.

Notre Dame QB Tommy Rees was efficient in the win against Temple going 16-23, 346 yards and 3 TD’s.  A performance like this tonight will certainly make the Irish faithful forget about the suspension of QB Everett Golson, who was expected to be behind center this season.  Rees may not duplicate the passing numbers he put up against Temple, but if he commits no turnovers, as was also the case, ND should be in good shape.

A player for ND that could make a difference tonight is junior TE Troy Niklas.  Niklas had a 66 yd TD reception last week (his only catch of the game) but he is an imposing 6-7, 270 lbs. and blocks well.  Having a big target like this against a tough Michigan defense should be a nice safety net for Rees.  Look for Niklas to be more involved tonight.

For Michigan, QB Devin Gardner was a modest 10-15 for 162 yards and a TD against CMU last week.  However, he threw 2 interceptions, too.  Collectively, the offense produced 463 yards, so you can see they can run the ball.

At this point, I think the 13 and 17 rankings for these teams are generous.  The winning team tonight will justify their number, but whoever loses this game is in for a long season in my opinion.  Michigan is favored by 3 1/2 and I believe that 1/2 point is important here.  The last 4 meetings between these two teams have been decided by 7 points or less and I expect another close outcome tonight.

The over/under total is 50 and if I had to choose, I would take the under simply because I don’t see either offense being able to light up the opposing defense.

Ultimately, that 1/2 point intrigues me in what figures to be a close game.  Therefore, I’ll take the points.

The pick:  Notre Dame +3 1/2

Thanks Santa.  Today's Free Pick looks at Notre Dame vs Michigan.

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Over 48.  Here's why..........

Here we go!  A heavyweight matchup in this relatively new tradition of having the Super Bowl champs play in an opener on Thursday night.  Really, the Baltimore Ravens should be hosting this game, but since the Orioles were already scheduled to play at home and there wouldn’t be enough parking, etc. the game got moved to Denver.  This may, in fact, be a benefit to Baltimore not having as much pressure of all of the hometown hype in this first game.  We’ll see.

Gone from the Ravens offense are WR Anquan Boldin (trade) and TE Dennis Pitta (injury).  RB Ray Rice and WR Torrey Smith will now have even more responsibility in QB Joe Flacco’s offense.  Flacco threw two touchdown passes and four interceptions in a lackluster pre-season.  He must pick it up now that the games are for real.  Especially after signing a very lucrative contract extension.  RB Bernard Pierce should see action in the backfield to spell Rice.

The Broncos offense is clearly led by QB Peyton Manning (4,659 yards, 37 TD’s and 11 INT’s in 2012).  Unlike the Raven’s, Denver’s offense got stronger in the offseason with the addition of WR Wes Welker and the drafting of RB Montee Ball.  With returning players WR Demaryius Thomas, WR Eric Decker, RB Ronnie Hillman and RB Knowshon Moreno, Denver should have no problem lighting up the scoreboard.

On defense, Baltimore will be missing LB Ray Lewis who has retired and S Ed Reed who has gone to Houston.  Lewis brought a swagger and energy to the unit and Reed was a master of takeaways.  Even so, the Raven’s seem to be solid defensively coming into the season.  Newcomers DE Chris Canty and former Bronco LB Elvis Dumervil will line up alongside the likes of NT Haloti Ngata, LB Terrell Suggs, CB Lardarius Webb and S Michael Huff giving them a formidable defensive unit.

Surprisingly, Denver had the third best run defense in the NFL last season giving up only 91.1 yards per game and also sported the league’s best third-down defense.  LB Wesley Woodyard was the only player in the NFL last season to record  at least 100 tackles, 5 sacks and 3 interceptions.  However, they will be without several key players from that 2102 unit.  DE Von Miller (18.5 sacks in 2012) is serving a suspension, Dumervil (11 sacks) is with Baltimore and CB Champ Baily is out with an injury.

This game looks like a toss up to me and I am a little surprised that Denver is such a big betting favorite at – 9.5 now.  No question that Manning and Co. will score points but that doesn’t necessarily mean they will blow out Baltimore.  I think Flacco will be able to eat up some clock with his offense and put some point of his own up on the board.  With 2 key players missing for Denver defensively it shouldn’t be that difficult.

I see a high scoring game and so do the oddsmakers as the over/under total sits at 48.  A high number for an opener but one I see being surpassed tonight.  Look for an entertaining, high scoring game tonight.

The Pick:  Over 48 points

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Check out the analysis of tonight's Ravens / Broncos game.

Cheers!

Roma - No.

Just looks like it.

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12 - 8 overall on Free Picks.

Nailed FSU and Winston last night.

Tonight look at CWS vs NYY