xslim12

Prospect

Posts: 271

Member Since: April 2015

Last Activity: 03 November 2019

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replied to Slim's NFL Picks in NFL Betting Yup... done for. Going to chill for the day. Good luck everyo View Post \| View Thread	xslim12	15	October 08, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Slim's NFL Picks in NFL Betting Tell me about it. This is going to be a long day. Pressure not on wants one bit View Post \| View Thread	xslim12	15	October 08, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Slim's NFL Picks in NFL Betting Going to keep it short since games start in 10 minutes Both teams rank identically when it comes to the DL causing pressure and the OL protecting the QB. It shows less for Wentz because of the short-pass game they play. Both QBs have identical QBRs (~50) when under pressure and Carson Palmer has a deep pass QBR of 110 versus Wentz 80. With Smallwood out, Wentz won't have much of a bail-out under pressure. I do not expect Clement to do as good as a job as Smallwood. On the other hand, Cardinals have Ellington who is familiar with the playbook and can line-up on the LOS. The Eagles are playing 5DBs which makes the deep ball tough. The Cards do a good job stretching zones with their quick receivers and vertical routes. Larry Fitz should have a field day because of this in the short-passing game. At the end, I do not see the Eagles getting many 3rd down conversions as they usually do. Best of luck View Post \| View Thread	xslim12	15	October 08, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Slim's NFL Picks in NFL Betting Record: 3-2 +1.95 Units Cardinals +7 (-131) B+1 (5 Units) Eagles Cardinals U44.5 (-114) (2 Units) I think the cardinals will beat the eagles. I took the Cardinals ML 0.75 units to make up for the juice from buying points. Write-up to follow Best of Luck View Post \| View Thread	xslim12	15	October 08, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Slim's NFL Picks in NFL Betting One ugly game. Not surprised about folk. Was expecting him to miss everything after that showing against the giants. 1-0 today... in the green View Post \| View Thread	xslim12	15	October 06, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to 2017 NFL Player Props (69% Wins) in NFL Betting Where do you get your lines from? Who do you use? View Post \| View Thread	thepropkings	273	October 05, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Line down to -3.5 in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by FallopianTuber: I don't think you understand line movements. I do... Brian fart moment... realized it immediately afterwrads View Post \| View Thread	Jrod6	15	October 05, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Line down to -3.5 in NFL Betting How is it moving down with gronk out... I wonder why View Post \| View Thread	Jrod6	15	October 05, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Slim's NFL Picks in NFL Betting There has been ongoing debate about tonight's game all over the forum. Both teams are in interesting places. Pick: Under 54.5 (-120) (2.5 units) Parlay: Tampa Bay ML and Under 54.5 Key Injuries Impacting Game: Gronk (NE-TE) is questionable Chris Conte (TB-S) doubtful Keith Tandy (TB-S) doubleful Expected Game Plan: If I was Dirk Koetter my first thought is that I am not beating Tom Brady through the air. So far this season bucs have ran the ball 38% of the time versus 44% in 2016. With Doug Martin back, I am expecting the Bucs to lean heavily on the run. This should start yielding dividends as the Pats are ranked 22nd in rush defense (football outsiders). With the possibility of rain during the game, sticking to a run game seems like a good idea. Time of possession should be in the Bucs favor this game. If Bucs jump to an early lead, I expect them to run the ball ALOT to kill time and keep Brady and their defense off the field. With the bucs two starting safeties out, people are expecting an aerial show from Brady. I am not too sure of that. Gronk is injured and listed as questionable. Whenever he is played during injuries, he is primarily used as a distraction to defenses and is not targeted as much. I am expected for TE blocking formations this game and less of the exotic formations used by Bill exploiting matchups with Gronk. Job on safeties should not as difficult if going against a healthy Patriots squad. Pats are likely going to need to rely on their run game more than they usually do because: 1) keep their defense off the field so they do not get tired (it is their weakest link) and 2) Brent Grimes did a good job covering OBJ last game under zone coverage and I am expecting the same with Chris Hogan who will be their #1 receiving threat. BOL to all -Slim View Post \| View Thread	xslim12	15	October 05, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS OVERATED OR TAMPA UNDERATED? in NFL Betting Bucs secondary is just as weak as Patriots. I feel like the Pats have more weapons at their disposal here. I like the better QB here but if Bucs can kill time by running the ball and keeping Brady off the field, then they have a chance of covering. View Post \| View Thread	schmeto	10	October 03, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Picks from the Land - Week 5 in NFL Betting Line has actually moved from Bengals -1.5 to Bengals -3.0. I still like buffalo but need to weigh the impact of Matthews and Humbard being out. They also have Gaines as quesitonable. Matthews has not been targetted much this year but he is still a deep threat. Zay Jones has been targeted often but his catch rate is pretty low. The biggest determinant of this game is whether the Bills will get pressure on Dalton and what the Bengals will do to prevent pressure. Best of luck bro View Post \| View Thread	BestFanCLE	2	October 03, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Part of the NFL fix.. from mnf in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags: How do you explain a flag on a phantom offsides call thrown 3-4 seconds after the Chiefs failed to score a TD, this call was the difference between a FG and a TD and it was no accident, there was zero reason to throw it other than to fix the game. It was not offsides. It was a redskins player lined up in the neutral zone. Announcers agreed with it as well. Thats just poor recognition by the redskins. View Post \| View Thread	Sackerius	33	October 03, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to 2017 NFL Player Props (69% Wins) in NFL Betting Quote Originally Posted by mlesnet: I'm going with Cousins Under 1.5 TD passes at +110. I feel that it's good value. BOL on whatever you decide! Mine is at -125... what a scam View Post \| View Thread	thepropkings	273	October 02, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to 2017 NFL Player Props (69% Wins) in NFL Betting Propking, I just found this thread but good work. Keep it up. View Post \| View Thread	thepropkings	273	October 02, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Probability in betting Totals in NFL Betting Have you back tested the formula? I am assuming you are using LN regression? View Post \| View Thread	Lawton1	28	October 02, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Slim's NFL Picks in NFL Betting Today: 2-1; +4.70 units Cumulative: 2-2; -0.30 Units View Post \| View Thread	xslim12	15	October 02, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Slim's NFL Picks in NFL Betting 1-1 in the morning 1pm game pick: Broncos -3 (-130) 4 units Michael Crabtree out. Broncos will get into their run game against a 28th ranked rush def. At home, expect defense to show up. Question mark is whether raiders will get their gun going against the Broncos. BOL -Slim View Post \| View Thread	xslim12	15	October 01, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Sunday in NFL Betting Bol bro View Post \| View Thread	oldwiseone	44	October 01, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Slim's NFL Picks in NFL Betting Record: 0-1 Bengals -2.5 (-138) - 5 Units Expect Dalton to have more time in the pocket given the browns weak pass rush. Browns are 26th in pass defense according to football outsiders and I expect the bengals pass game to do well. Bengals D should hold down CLE pass game and get pressure on the QB. Lean: Falcons/Buff Over 48 (-120) (2 units) Falcons have one of the top O-lines in the league. Matt Ryan will have time in the pocket and exploit the Bills young CBs. Taylor will also have time in the pocket and not be under pressure much. His QB rating is 100+ last I checked when not under pressure. -Slim View Post \| View Thread	xslim12	15	October 01, 2017 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Anyone heard of this in NFL Betting garbage, i just noticed this too but his prediction on GB and CHI game was on point score wise. View Post \| View Thread	xslim12	2	September 29, 2017 View Post \| View Thread

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