2023 African Cup of Nations Picks

We are a few weeks away from one of my favourite continental championships, the 2023 African cup of nations taking place in 2024. Makes as much sense as Octoberfest in September, and the Asian 2023 cup also kicking of in January 2024. 

The last tournament in 2021 we went 29-33-3 for a profit of +1696 units, hoping for similar results this time around.

I'm going to be hunting around for value on futures as more books post prices. I will also post some of my trends/numbers/analytics that I hope can be of value for those of you who plan to seriously wager this competition. I won't bet on individual games until squads are finalized on January the 3rd deadline.

I welcome everyone to post in this thread who can share an angle and their thoughts. Lets have a great tournament 

1. African Cup of Nations winner --- Morocco @ 8.00/+700 (2u) Bet365

I was really surprised to find the first African semifinalist ever in the world cup just last year to be the fourth odds on fav to win this tournament. +700 is big value on a team that is head and shoulders the best side in Africa. Morocco have a cake walk of a group and this side is thirsty for a championship they have not won since 1976. I also picked this side last time around and lost perhaps I was a tad early as they really showed their quality in Qatar. Anything at 4-1 or better is a play.

2. African Cup of Nations winner --- Ghana @ 15.00/+1400 (1u) Bet365

This is my dark horse pick to win the tournament. Once again really good value on Ghana who in the past 8 African Cup of nations tournaments made the top 4 on 6 occasions. Now time for a geography lesson kids. Ghana is only just over 500 km from Abidjan. Group opponents Egypt, Mozambique & Cape Verde will hardly have any supporters in the stands making all group stage games de facto home games for Ghana. 

Jan 13

3. Ivory Coast UNDER 2.5 @ 1.98/-102 (1u) Bet365

4. 1st Half Result DRAW @ 2.56/+156 (1u) Pinnacle

LEAN

1st half Correct score 0-0 @ 3.10/+210 Unibet

The opening game of the tournament has gone under 5 out of the past six times with the exception of the last tournament when The home side were awarded 2 penalty kicks. I expect an Ivory Coast victory here but I'm hoping we see a slow feeling out each other first half that ends in a draw. Three of the past 6 games went into half time level so getting plus money here is also value.

DJ-look forward to the tourney and thanks for the picks---even though it is in 2024, it's a really good way to fill the January doldrums well into European league play and before Champs league knockouts in February!

@docpj72

Jan 14

5. Nigeria UNDER 2.5 @ 1.70/-143 (2u) Pinnacle

6. 1st Half Result DRAW @ 2.26/+126 (1u) Pinnacle

LEAN

1st half Correct score 0-0 @ 2.75/+175 Bet365

The second game is a mirror image of the opening game so I'm playing the same angles. Nigeria will have the fan support and should win over Equatorial Guinea but it will be tough as EG are unbeaten in their past 9 games and only allowing 5 goals against in that stretch. I'm doubling up on the total here as I had it at 1.50/-200.

Some numbers from this tournaments history

2021--- 1.96 goals per game

2019--- 1.92 goals per game

2017 --- 2.06 goals per game

2015 --- 2.13 goals per game

2013 --- 2.16 goals per game 

That is a 200 game sample that averages 2.04 goals per game.

@SPERRL

@DiamondJack

 nice looking card 

@Skyfall

Morocco…. Great stuff.   I also tailed ya small kine on the black star -Ghana

have a great tourney buddy. 

https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/39285300/gambia-players-staff-say-oxygen-failed-plane-afcon

WOW! 

BEST OF LUCK ON YOUR PICKS DJ.

@wolfeman3

@jimc0911

  That's some scary stuff 

Jan 14

7. Ghana UNDER 2 @ 1.93/-107 (1u) Bet365

8. Ghana ML @ 1.90/-111 (1u) Unibet

LEAN

Correct score 1-0 @ +450

Ghana has never lost to Cape Vere winning all their 4 head to head meetings to nil. The fan support will be there and I expect Ghana to take advantage of the fact that Egypt drew their opening fixture versus Mozambique. Everything points to a narrow 1-0 win for Ghana.

JAN 15

9. Senegal/Gambia UNDER 2.25 @ 1.91/-110 (2u) Bet365

LEAN

Correct score 1-0 @ +400 Unibet

This is a battle between two neighbours that I expect might be tighter then what most people expect. We are yet to see a game with less then 2 goals in the tournament. I think this might be the first. The last time these two played each other Senegal won 1-0.

3/0 just because

JAN 15

10. Cameroon to DRAW @ 2.96/+196 (1u) Bet365

11. Cameroon UNDER 2 @ 1.91/-110 (2u) Pinnacle

razor thin margins so far 

JAN 15

12. Algeria 1st Half DRAW @ 2.12/+112 (1u) Pinnacle

13. Algeria UNDER 2 @ 1.99/-101 (2u) Pinnacle

@Skyfall

 those red cards did not help 

hung on for a push again

JAN 16

14. Burkina Faso ML @ 1.98/-102 (1u) Pinnacle

15. Burkina Faso UNDER 1.5 @ 2.33/+133 (2u) Pinnacle