Qualification for the Gold cup kicks off today and I will post all my Gold cup picks here starting with;
1. Antigua +1.5 @ 1.80/-125 (1u) Bet365
This line opened up with what I thought was a fair price of Guadeloupe being favoured at 1.80/-125. Since then the line has plummeted and there is value on Antigua. These sides just recently met in the Nations league where Antigua won both games 1-0 home and away. They won't fear Guadeloupe here and I expect a tight game.
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Qualification for the Gold cup kicks off today and I will post all my Gold cup picks here starting with;
1. Antigua +1.5 @ 1.80/-125 (1u) Bet365
This line opened up with what I thought was a fair price of Guadeloupe being favoured at 1.80/-125. Since then the line has plummeted and there is value on Antigua. These sides just recently met in the Nations league where Antigua won both games 1-0 home and away. They won't fear Guadeloupe here and I expect a tight game.
2. Martinique/St Lucia OVER 2.5 @ 1.90/-111 (1u) Bet365
Rarely do you see a big favourite priced at -300 have a set total of 2.5 goals. St Lucia are just awful they tied San Marino 1-1 back in the fall. They should get rolled here. I don't expect a 5-4 scoreline like the last time these sides met in Gold Cup qualification but I expect goals. Martinique's last 3 gold cup games all went over with a total of 15 goals scored.
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2. Martinique/St Lucia OVER 2.5 @ 1.90/-111 (1u) Bet365
Rarely do you see a big favourite priced at -300 have a set total of 2.5 goals. St Lucia are just awful they tied San Marino 1-1 back in the fall. They should get rolled here. I don't expect a 5-4 scoreline like the last time these sides met in Gold Cup qualification but I expect goals. Martinique's last 3 gold cup games all went over with a total of 15 goals scored.
Backing the dog here purely on a form play. Curacao have only won once in their past 13 games and have failed to score in their last 3. St Kitts have 3 wins and 1 draw in their past 4 games. According to the Fifa Concacaf rankings only 3 teams separate these sides so the true odds here I made at -200 for Curacao.
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3. St Kitts +1.5 @ 2.10/+110 (1u) Pinnacle
Backing the dog here purely on a form play. Curacao have only won once in their past 13 games and have failed to score in their last 3. St Kitts have 3 wins and 1 draw in their past 4 games. According to the Fifa Concacaf rankings only 3 teams separate these sides so the true odds here I made at -200 for Curacao.
This play mirrors my St Kitts play from Friday. Backing a dog that is in form having not lost in their last 8 games versus Suriname who only have one win in their past 4 games. Puerto Rico just played Curacao on Tuesday and drew 0-0 a team that is better then Suriname. Both Puerto Rico and Suriname played Guyana recently and Puerto Rico won 2-0 as did Suriname 2-1. There are more Puerto Rican's in central Florida then anywhere in the USA, this will give them a home side edge. Getting 2 goals in pocket on the Asian handicap is the play for me.
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4. Puerto Rico +2 @ 1.88/-114 (1u) Pinnacle
This play mirrors my St Kitts play from Friday. Backing a dog that is in form having not lost in their last 8 games versus Suriname who only have one win in their past 4 games. Puerto Rico just played Curacao on Tuesday and drew 0-0 a team that is better then Suriname. Both Puerto Rico and Suriname played Guyana recently and Puerto Rico won 2-0 as did Suriname 2-1. There are more Puerto Rican's in central Florida then anywhere in the USA, this will give them a home side edge. Getting 2 goals in pocket on the Asian handicap is the play for me.
Simple play here backing the better side. Guadeloupe looked like the best side in these preliminary games rolling Antigua 5-0 where as Guyana needed PK's to get through Grenada. I had this capped at 1.50/-200. Anyone who is capping these games please know that the French teams (Guadeloupe/Martinique & French Guiana) are not FIFA ranked because they are not members of FIFA only CONCACAF. Please look up world soccer ELO rankings to get a fair picture.
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5. Guadeloupe -1 @ 2.15/+115 (1u) Marathon
Simple play here backing the better side. Guadeloupe looked like the best side in these preliminary games rolling Antigua 5-0 where as Guyana needed PK's to get through Grenada. I had this capped at 1.50/-200. Anyone who is capping these games please know that the French teams (Guadeloupe/Martinique & French Guiana) are not FIFA ranked because they are not members of FIFA only CONCACAF. Please look up world soccer ELO rankings to get a fair picture.
7. Martinique/Puerto Rico OVER 2.5 @ 2.08/+108 (1u) Bet365
As with my reasoning with play #2 when Martinique play you have to back the over & getting plus money is good value. These sides have met twice before both wins by Martinique. Puerto Rico is ranked at 172 in the world & Martinique is at 104. The line here should be at 1.80/-125. I expect a 3-1 scoreline in favour of Martinique.
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6. Martinique ML @ 2.15/+115 (1u) Bet365
7. Martinique/Puerto Rico OVER 2.5 @ 2.08/+108 (1u) Bet365
As with my reasoning with play #2 when Martinique play you have to back the over & getting plus money is good value. These sides have met twice before both wins by Martinique. Puerto Rico is ranked at 172 in the world & Martinique is at 104. The line here should be at 1.80/-125. I expect a 3-1 scoreline in favour of Martinique.
I'm continuing the trend here of backing all French sides and fading all 3 sides that went the distance to PK's in the Florida heat. French Guiana is ranked 133 where as St Kitts are ranked 161. The last head to head meeting was won by French Guiana 3-1. Looking for a common opponent recently both sides played Trinidad, and St Kitts lost 2-0 where as French Guiana drew 1-1.
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8. French Guiana ML @ 1.85/-117 (1u) Pinnacle
I'm continuing the trend here of backing all French sides and fading all 3 sides that went the distance to PK's in the Florida heat. French Guiana is ranked 133 where as St Kitts are ranked 161. The last head to head meeting was won by French Guiana 3-1. Looking for a common opponent recently both sides played Trinidad, and St Kitts lost 2-0 where as French Guiana drew 1-1.
The last 3 head to head encounters between these two sides have all finished under the 2.5 goal total. The United States side will be without their biggest goal threat Pulisic and will field what I call a B+ side. Their two best players for the USA will be their 2 goal keepers; Arsenal's Turner & Chelsea's Slonina. Their biggest goal scoring threat will be Jordan Morris of Seattle. Jamaica on the other hand will be looking at Aston Villa's Baily for a goal threat. Unfortunately he has only scored 3 goals in 19 games. Going back the last 3 gold cups any close line of 1.60/-167 or higher denoting a close game have gone 28-9 to the Under 2.5 that is more than 75% so over players beware.
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9. USA/Jamaica UNDER 2.5 @ 1.90/-111 (1u) Bet365
The last 3 head to head encounters between these two sides have all finished under the 2.5 goal total. The United States side will be without their biggest goal threat Pulisic and will field what I call a B+ side. Their two best players for the USA will be their 2 goal keepers; Arsenal's Turner & Chelsea's Slonina. Their biggest goal scoring threat will be Jordan Morris of Seattle. Jamaica on the other hand will be looking at Aston Villa's Baily for a goal threat. Unfortunately he has only scored 3 goals in 19 games. Going back the last 3 gold cups any close line of 1.60/-167 or higher denoting a close game have gone 28-9 to the Under 2.5 that is more than 75% so over players beware.
St Kitts come into this match on the back of two games going the distance to penalties. I think their luck is due to run out versus a well rested side Trinidad who are unbeaten in their past 6 games. Head to head these sides have met 11 times all have been won by Trinidad scoring 33GF 8GA. Trinidad FIFA ranked 104 St Kitts 139. Elo Ranked Trinidad 111 Vs 159 of St Kitts. I made the line -150 for Trinidad.
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10. Trinidad ML @ 1.95/-105 (1u) Bet365
St Kitts come into this match on the back of two games going the distance to penalties. I think their luck is due to run out versus a well rested side Trinidad who are unbeaten in their past 6 games. Head to head these sides have met 11 times all have been won by Trinidad scoring 33GF 8GA. Trinidad FIFA ranked 104 St Kitts 139. Elo Ranked Trinidad 111 Vs 159 of St Kitts. I made the line -150 for Trinidad.
I had this game pegged as a Pk'em to either side with a draw as the most likely outcome. Both sides are ranked 71st in the ELO rankings and have Mexico on tap in the group. I expect a not to lose approach from both teams. Form wise Haiti have won 5 straight where as Qatar have only won 2 of their past 9 games. Qatar look like a world cup hangover team that might just lose outright here.
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11. Haiti +0.50 @ 1.85/-117 (1u) Pinnacle
I had this game pegged as a Pk'em to either side with a draw as the most likely outcome. Both sides are ranked 71st in the ELO rankings and have Mexico on tap in the group. I expect a not to lose approach from both teams. Form wise Haiti have won 5 straight where as Qatar have only won 2 of their past 9 games. Qatar look like a world cup hangover team that might just lose outright here.
Mexico have the most talented side at the world cup with Canada & the USA resting their Euro stars. The team is at a low point having lost to the USA in the nations league and firing their manager. I'm hoping for a new coach bounce back tournament and I'm buying low on the best side. The last 3 games versus Honduras, Mexico wins 1-0, 3-0 & 3-0. Honduras has been in poor form coming into this game having only 1 win and that was over El Salvador since last September.
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12. Mexico -1 @ 2.15/+115 (1u) Bet365
13. Mexico Win to nil @ 2.62/+162 (1u) Bet365
Mexico have the most talented side at the world cup with Canada & the USA resting their Euro stars. The team is at a low point having lost to the USA in the nations league and firing their manager. I'm hoping for a new coach bounce back tournament and I'm buying low on the best side. The last 3 games versus Honduras, Mexico wins 1-0, 3-0 & 3-0. Honduras has been in poor form coming into this game having only 1 win and that was over El Salvador since last September.
I had El Salvador as slight fav's here at +125 so I was surprised at the line here being minus money. Value thus has to go to Martinique. El Salvador has been in very poor form as of late being winless in their past 8 games and having scoring only one goal in their last 5 games. Martinique disposed of Puerto Rico and St Lucia in the qualifiers and I expect them to keep this game close.
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14. Martinique +0.5 @ 1.95/-105 (1u) Bet365
I had El Salvador as slight fav's here at +125 so I was surprised at the line here being minus money. Value thus has to go to Martinique. El Salvador has been in very poor form as of late being winless in their past 8 games and having scoring only one goal in their last 5 games. Martinique disposed of Puerto Rico and St Lucia in the qualifiers and I expect them to keep this game close.
Finally the books have started to post some futures prices, and the value I see is on Jamaica;
15. Jamaica to win Group A @ 6.00/+500 (1/2u) Bet365
16. Jamaica to win Gold Cup @ 17.00/+1600 (1/2u) Bet365
After analyzing all the squad players named to the gold cup I make Jamaica my dark horse pick to make a run. Do I expect them to win? not really as I think this is Mexico's cup to lose. Jamaica has a 40% chance not to lose its opener vs the USA and if they win or draw the Group A winner has a red carpet route to the final. The odds here for the Reggae Boyz to win group A imply a chance of probability at 16%. Jamaica has been to the finals of the gold cup and lost in 2015 & 2017 to USA & Mexico. I'm hoping Heimir Hallgrimsson the Jamaica manager who brought Iceland to the World cup can lead the boyz to some silverware.
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Finally the books have started to post some futures prices, and the value I see is on Jamaica;
15. Jamaica to win Group A @ 6.00/+500 (1/2u) Bet365
16. Jamaica to win Gold Cup @ 17.00/+1600 (1/2u) Bet365
After analyzing all the squad players named to the gold cup I make Jamaica my dark horse pick to make a run. Do I expect them to win? not really as I think this is Mexico's cup to lose. Jamaica has a 40% chance not to lose its opener vs the USA and if they win or draw the Group A winner has a red carpet route to the final. The odds here for the Reggae Boyz to win group A imply a chance of probability at 16%. Jamaica has been to the finals of the gold cup and lost in 2015 & 2017 to USA & Mexico. I'm hoping Heimir Hallgrimsson the Jamaica manager who brought Iceland to the World cup can lead the boyz to some silverware.
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