Before scrolling down can you guess what it is from the emoticons below ?
That's right, A Penalty Shootout Chase system
Here's how it works
From the 4 QF's ,2 SF's and the Final we bet each game to go to penalties starting with 2 units for the first game and do a gradual chase for the remaining games depending on how the QF games pan out
Ballpark odds on a game to go to penalties in and around the 5/1 , 6/1 mark what I prefer to do is split the 2 units into 1 unit on Team A and 1 Unit team B as odds can differ between various books on the individual teams 12/1 vs 14/1 etc
Next post will be a brief history of shootouts at all the previous European Championships
Keep Calm and Bet 10 Play Over Parlays
1
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Before scrolling down can you guess what it is from the emoticons below ?
That's right, A Penalty Shootout Chase system
Here's how it works
From the 4 QF's ,2 SF's and the Final we bet each game to go to penalties starting with 2 units for the first game and do a gradual chase for the remaining games depending on how the QF games pan out
Ballpark odds on a game to go to penalties in and around the 5/1 , 6/1 mark what I prefer to do is split the 2 units into 1 unit on Team A and 1 Unit team B as odds can differ between various books on the individual teams 12/1 vs 14/1 etc
Next post will be a brief history of shootouts at all the previous European Championships
So this is the 2nd Championships to have the 2nd Expansion era of 24 teams as opposed to the previous 16 so an extra round of 16 to contend with which has already seen 1 shootout and another 2 games going to extra time.
Here's a breakdown of previous tournaments
2016
L16 1-7 Swi/Pol the first game of the round
QF 2-2 Por/Pol & Ger/It1st and 3rd games of the round
SF 0-2
F 0-1
2012
QF 1-3 Eng/It the 4th game of the round
SF 1-1 Por/Spn 1st game of the round
F 0-1
2008
QF 2-2 Cro/Tur & Spn/It the 2nd & 4th games of the round
SF 0-2
F 0-1
2004
QF 2-2 Por/Eng & Swi/Holl 1st and 3rd games of the round
SF 0-2
F 0-1
2000
QF 0-4
SF 1-1 Holl/It the 2nd semi final
F 0-1 (went to extra time)
1996 the 1st Euros of the expansion era from 8 to 16 teams
QF 2-2 Eng/Spn & Fr/Holl the 1st and 2nd games of the round
SF 2-0 Fr/Cze & Ger/Eng
F 0-1 (still went to extra time)
Briefly before this we're going way back but only 3 games were played in the later stages of the old style Euros with only 1 game in 1992, 1984 and 1980 going to pens (1980 was a 2 game KO stage with just a Final and 3rd place game)
No shootouts in 1988 but the first shootout at the Euros was in 1976 where a Czechoslovakian midfielder scored a famous penalty to win the tournament against West Germany , can you guess who he was ?
So as you can see from above from the quarter finals onwards we tend to see at least 2 shootouts, worst year was 2000 with only 1 game and at average odds at 6-1 even without chasing it can be profitable to back shootouts in each game
Keep Calm and Bet 10 Play Over Parlays
1
So this is the 2nd Championships to have the 2nd Expansion era of 24 teams as opposed to the previous 16 so an extra round of 16 to contend with which has already seen 1 shootout and another 2 games going to extra time.
Here's a breakdown of previous tournaments
2016
L16 1-7 Swi/Pol the first game of the round
QF 2-2 Por/Pol & Ger/It1st and 3rd games of the round
SF 0-2
F 0-1
2012
QF 1-3 Eng/It the 4th game of the round
SF 1-1 Por/Spn 1st game of the round
F 0-1
2008
QF 2-2 Cro/Tur & Spn/It the 2nd & 4th games of the round
SF 0-2
F 0-1
2004
QF 2-2 Por/Eng & Swi/Holl 1st and 3rd games of the round
SF 0-2
F 0-1
2000
QF 0-4
SF 1-1 Holl/It the 2nd semi final
F 0-1 (went to extra time)
1996 the 1st Euros of the expansion era from 8 to 16 teams
QF 2-2 Eng/Spn & Fr/Holl the 1st and 2nd games of the round
SF 2-0 Fr/Cze & Ger/Eng
F 0-1 (still went to extra time)
Briefly before this we're going way back but only 3 games were played in the later stages of the old style Euros with only 1 game in 1992, 1984 and 1980 going to pens (1980 was a 2 game KO stage with just a Final and 3rd place game)
No shootouts in 1988 but the first shootout at the Euros was in 1976 where a Czechoslovakian midfielder scored a famous penalty to win the tournament against West Germany , can you guess who he was ?
So as you can see from above from the quarter finals onwards we tend to see at least 2 shootouts, worst year was 2000 with only 1 game and at average odds at 6-1 even without chasing it can be profitable to back shootouts in each game
Always like a good chase system....only sport I have really ever done it with is in MLB.
So if first game doesn't hit than 2 units a apiece on teams in second game....and then 4 units apiece on third game,,,and then 8 units a piece on 4th game and vice versa until one hits?
1
Always like a good chase system....only sport I have really ever done it with is in MLB.
So if first game doesn't hit than 2 units a apiece on teams in second game....and then 4 units apiece on third game,,,and then 8 units a piece on 4th game and vice versa until one hits?
Always like a good chase system....only sport I have really ever done it with is in MLB. So if first game doesn't hit than 2 units a apiece on teams in second game....and then 4 units apiece on third game,,,and then 8 units a piece on 4th game and vice versa until one hits?
peter
done a couple of chases with MLB team totals but definitely can be (imagine chasing the D'Backs all thru that 17 game losing streak in the first 3 weeks of June don't even want to know what the math is on that one )
Probably won't be an aggressive chase as the odds are quite good. Should be more of a 2,4,6,8 (or 1,2,3,4 for each team) system in the quarter finals as I think the last game between Eng/Ukr has the least chance of going to pens
as it stands Ukraine are 18/1 to win on penalties in that one, with England 14/1
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0
Quote Originally Posted by PeterBlack:
Always like a good chase system....only sport I have really ever done it with is in MLB. So if first game doesn't hit than 2 units a apiece on teams in second game....and then 4 units apiece on third game,,,and then 8 units a piece on 4th game and vice versa until one hits?
peter
done a couple of chases with MLB team totals but definitely can be (imagine chasing the D'Backs all thru that 17 game losing streak in the first 3 weeks of June don't even want to know what the math is on that one )
Probably won't be an aggressive chase as the odds are quite good. Should be more of a 2,4,6,8 (or 1,2,3,4 for each team) system in the quarter finals as I think the last game between Eng/Ukr has the least chance of going to pens
as it stands Ukraine are 18/1 to win on penalties in that one, with England 14/1
There are two other good chase systems in soccer. One in game and one at the start of the season.
Take any major league. Make a list of all the teams in that league. On the first match for each team bet the draw either FG or FH. If it wins, cross the name off your list. Then for the next round of matches, bet the draw again (martingale it) in each match that had at least one team not draw already. The goal is to get a draw from every single team. In the EPL, the average time before a team gets its first draw is 2 matches, almost all the teams get it by the 4th match. In Serie A, I do this, but only for half time, that league is awful for second half goals killing draws.
The second, riskier chase is in game with a site that allows 10 minute betting. This is also simple.
Bet over .5 corners in ten minute segments for the first half up to the 40th minute. So far in the Italy game, we have had at least one corner every 10 minutes for the first 30 minutes. If you won the 30 minute corner bet, then I would stop and not bet it in the second half. You can martingale this one as well, the theory is that generally there is at least one corner every 10 minutes, and almost certainly every 20 minutes.
1
There are two other good chase systems in soccer. One in game and one at the start of the season.
Take any major league. Make a list of all the teams in that league. On the first match for each team bet the draw either FG or FH. If it wins, cross the name off your list. Then for the next round of matches, bet the draw again (martingale it) in each match that had at least one team not draw already. The goal is to get a draw from every single team. In the EPL, the average time before a team gets its first draw is 2 matches, almost all the teams get it by the 4th match. In Serie A, I do this, but only for half time, that league is awful for second half goals killing draws.
The second, riskier chase is in game with a site that allows 10 minute betting. This is also simple.
Bet over .5 corners in ten minute segments for the first half up to the 40th minute. So far in the Italy game, we have had at least one corner every 10 minutes for the first 30 minutes. If you won the 30 minute corner bet, then I would stop and not bet it in the second half. You can martingale this one as well, the theory is that generally there is at least one corner every 10 minutes, and almost certainly every 20 minutes.
Nice Hit on today's 1st match..but THIS one doesn't Deserve a PK finish..Italy looks solid..Now, Tomorrow..one of those matches ends in PK's..Good Luck..wish I could bet those offerings..
1
Nice Hit on today's 1st match..but THIS one doesn't Deserve a PK finish..Italy looks solid..Now, Tomorrow..one of those matches ends in PK's..Good Luck..wish I could bet those offerings..
Nice Hit on today's 1st match..but THIS one doesn't Deserve a PK finish..Italy looks solid..Now, Tomorrow..one of those matches ends in PK's..Good Luck..wish I could bet those offerings..
Which sportsbook do you use ?
pretty much all UK & European books (Hills,bet365,Ladbrokes etc) offer this prop bet. Even those that cater to Stateside bettors should have this bet for major tournaments like the Euros
Keep Calm and Bet 10 Play Over Parlays
0
Quote Originally Posted by Crusher13:
Nice Hit on today's 1st match..but THIS one doesn't Deserve a PK finish..Italy looks solid..Now, Tomorrow..one of those matches ends in PK's..Good Luck..wish I could bet those offerings..
Which sportsbook do you use ?
pretty much all UK & European books (Hills,bet365,Ladbrokes etc) offer this prop bet. Even those that cater to Stateside bettors should have this bet for major tournaments like the Euros
Definitely not interested in the 10 minute corner betting but the draw is intriguing
I used to love my Serie A draws back in the day (mid 2000's) and was the first thing I looked for on a Sunday along with the odd Saturday game. I used to pick a treble that payed in and around 30/1 and generally hit about 1 or 2 a season so still made a profit
These days I prefer betting Over 1.5 & 2.5 parlays and having some success
I'm working on a chase system at the moment for German and Austrian lower leagues when the new season starts in Aug
Keep Calm and Bet 10 Play Over Parlays
1
@arrgy
Definitely not interested in the 10 minute corner betting but the draw is intriguing
I used to love my Serie A draws back in the day (mid 2000's) and was the first thing I looked for on a Sunday along with the odd Saturday game. I used to pick a treble that payed in and around 30/1 and generally hit about 1 or 2 a season so still made a profit
These days I prefer betting Over 1.5 & 2.5 parlays and having some success
I'm working on a chase system at the moment for German and Austrian lower leagues when the new season starts in Aug
Nice Hit on today's 1st match..but THIS one doesn't Deserve a PK finish..Italy looks solid..Now, Tomorrow..one of those matches ends in PK's..Good Luck..wish I could bet those offerings..
there is a way around this problem if you really wanted to play it
An option would be to take the draw and if the draw hits after 90min take the ingame bet on the draw in extra time and you get probably similar enough odds. Again only if you're book has ingame wagering on the Euros
Or just bet the draw in these games then you also get the added insurance in case the game is settled in extra time like that late winner in Ukraine and Sweden
Keep Calm and Bet 10 Play Over Parlays
1
Quote Originally Posted by Crusher13:
Nice Hit on today's 1st match..but THIS one doesn't Deserve a PK finish..Italy looks solid..Now, Tomorrow..one of those matches ends in PK's..Good Luck..wish I could bet those offerings..
there is a way around this problem if you really wanted to play it
An option would be to take the draw and if the draw hits after 90min take the ingame bet on the draw in extra time and you get probably similar enough odds. Again only if you're book has ingame wagering on the Euros
Or just bet the draw in these games then you also get the added insurance in case the game is settled in extra time like that late winner in Ukraine and Sweden
should have eased off a bit on Eng/Ukr as I thought that was the least likely game to go to pens but however
Liking at least one of the semi finals to go all the way. Italy/Spain probably more likely but this would be Spain's 3rd draw in a row and 2nd shootout as well so treading lightly
Spain to win on penalties @ 11/1
Italy to win on penalties @ 11/1
5 units a piece
A little saver on the Draw at +220 for 2.85 units
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1
Last 3 games
should have eased off a bit on Eng/Ukr as I thought that was the least likely game to go to pens but however
Liking at least one of the semi finals to go all the way. Italy/Spain probably more likely but this would be Spain's 3rd draw in a row and 2nd shootout as well so treading lightly
and that's not including last night's win on the draw which was a + 6.27 unit gain
tonight, reset to 2.5 units a play and depending on how tonight goes probably the same for the final. Still the system should finish up a minimum plus 37 units
probably might pass on the final to go to pens if Denmark make it (or at least minimal stakes), but England definitely a play if they get there
England to win on penalties @ 12/1
Denmark to win on penalties @ 12/1
2.5 units a piece
also playing 2.5 units on the draw @ +250 and 0.7 units on Denmark to win in extra time @ 20/1
Keep Calm and Bet 10 Play Over Parlays
0
2 more games to go
So far Up 46.60 Units
and that's not including last night's win on the draw which was a + 6.27 unit gain
tonight, reset to 2.5 units a play and depending on how tonight goes probably the same for the final. Still the system should finish up a minimum plus 37 units
probably might pass on the final to go to pens if Denmark make it (or at least minimal stakes), but England definitely a play if they get there
England to win on penalties @ 12/1
Denmark to win on penalties @ 12/1
2.5 units a piece
also playing 2.5 units on the draw @ +250 and 0.7 units on Denmark to win in extra time @ 20/1
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peter 
(imagine chasing the D'Backs all thru that 17 game losing streak in the first 3 weeks of June 
don't even want to know what the math is on that one )
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