All Forums | Soccer

Copa America tournament thread....

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 47696
Posts: 633
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2011
Posts: 757
Posted: #176
Professor Van, is it   good to bet under 2 1/2 for   - 118 ?  
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2006
Posts: 8858
Posted: #177
Quote Originally Posted by Fortmax:

Professor Van, is it   good to bet under 2 1/2 for   - 118 ?  


He said he's looking for a 3-0 or 4-0 final...
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2006
Posts: 23557
Posted: #178
Quote Originally Posted by holiday-styles:


My local has it at Argentina -1 (-180) and Argentina ml -305

That's a bit less advantageous than Pinny's offerings... if you are in Canada it would behoove you to join Pinnacle for best lines anywhere outside of market sites.

I was quoting Van's play of -1 -1.5 which he got -105.

The ML for that game is well under -300 on Pinny at present.

 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2005
Posts: 26991
Posted: #179
Looking at a tight low-scoring affair. But, that's just me.

GL mate.


 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2009
Posts: 41623
Posted: #180
gl van i am playing

Arg ht/Arg ft -102 for 1 unit

Draw first half/ Argtenia ft +324  for .31 units
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2007
Posts: 38084
Posted: #181

Quote Originally Posted by Professional1:

gl van i am playing

Arg ht/Arg ft -102 for 1 unit

Draw first half/ Argtenia ft +324  for .31 units

Professional,

I was tempted to take that bet on 5dimes last night, but I crunched some numbers:

This is like a "double chance" bet.... but your effective odds are in the ball park of -295

www.absoluteodds.com

go to "odds calculator"

scroll down to "double chance" and pop in your prices in decimal form

 

You are better off taking Argentina ML -259 at this point, just in case Colombia pulls a "Bolivia" on you and goes up 1-0 at HT

 

Good luck either way

 

Those prices are +105 and +327 respectively now

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2007
Posts: 776
Posted: #182
I think Arg HT and Arg FT isn't really a "double chance" as they are STRONGLY correlated.  There is let's say a 80% chance that if Arg is up at HT, they win game (probably more like 90%).  What's probability Arg is up in 1H - if you think it's 60%ish (then that's 48%+ this hits so -102 is close to right line).  And I know NOTHING about soccer (only players I know are Pele, Ronaldo, Beckham, and Adu - seriously), but I do know a little math and just remember we have to be careful about the correlations.  Yes, teams come back - a la Chile 2-1 vs Mexico reserves.

Hope this makes sense.

And Bakemcbride, Professional1 - I read ALL your stuff - love both of your guys work!!!!
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2007
Posts: 38084
Posted: #183
Kvs, thx for the kind words.

By "double chance", I was referring to the fact that Professional is making 2 separate prop bets:

Arg HT/FT -102 and

Draw HT/Arg FT +324

Those 2 bets together are creating a double chance of sorts. My point was basically pointing out that betting Argentina ML costs less

And I want to be clear I am not advising anyone how to bet. Merely the costs involved in this "combo" wager.

Again, good luck to you guys.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2011
Posts: 73
Posted: #184
Quote Originally Posted by happycap:

That's a bit less advantageous than Pinny's offerings... if you are in Canada it would behoove you to join Pinnacle for best lines anywhere outside of market sites.

I was quoting Van's play of -1 -1.5 which he got -105.

The ML for that game is well under -300 on Pinny at present.


Thanks....what does -1, -1.5 mean ? how does the bet have to play out for you to win.....
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 35430
Posted: #185
Quote Originally Posted by holiday-styles:


Thanks....what does -1, -1.5 mean ? how does the bet have to play out for you to win.....

Asian Handicap


 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2009
Posts: 41623
Posted: #186
Quote Originally Posted by bakemcbride:

Kvs, thx for the kind words.

By "double chance", I was referring to the fact that Professional is making 2 separate prop bets:

Arg HT/FT -102 and

Draw HT/Arg FT +324

Those 2 bets together are creating a double chance of sorts. My point was basically pointing out that betting Argentina ML costs less

And I want to be clear I am not advising anyone how to bet. Merely the costs involved in this "combo" wager.

Again, good luck to you guys.


hey thanks for checking the odds out I appreciate that. yes if argentina is losing at the half then i am screwed but i am taking the chance they will be winning or worst case tied at the half gl.
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2009
Posts: 41623
Posted: #187
Quote Originally Posted by kvs23:

I think Arg HT and Arg FT isn't really a "double chance" as they are STRONGLY correlated.  There is let's say a 80% chance that if Arg is up at HT, they win game (probably more like 90%).  What's probability Arg is up in 1H - if you think it's 60%ish (then that's 48%+ this hits so -102 is close to right line).  And I know NOTHING about soccer (only players I know are Pele, Ronaldo, Beckham, and Adu - seriously), but I do know a little math and just remember we have to be careful about the correlations.  Yes, teams come back - a la Chile 2-1 vs Mexico reserves.

Hope this makes sense.

And Bakemcbride, Professional1 - I read ALL your stuff - love both of your guys work!!!!


thanks for the kind words!
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2005
Posts: 14577
Posted: #188

good luck van

what would the book have to offer you pricewise
for you to make a play on the -1.5 ?

just wanted to get your thoughts there

fuck all the bullshit , you're more interesting than the dosequis guy  

BACK PATTING and KISSING threads are like passing HAM SANDWICHES around over and over-wall
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2007
Posts: 776
Posted: #189
BakeMcBride - gotcha, thanks.

You are correct, it is 74.1% combined which is -286.

I set up a ton of calculators in an Excel spreadsheet (basically same place I try to handicap games).

For the -102 and +324 you can just "plug" those into let's say Cell B5
And then your B5 formula should be: =IF(B5>0,100/(100+B5),(-B5/(100-B5))).  That gets you 50.5% for -102 and 23.6% for +324.  Then, you just add and put in 74.1% in Cell B8 (for example).  Your B9 formula should be: =IF(B8>0.5,(-100*B8/(1-B8)),(100*(1-B8)/B8)).

So basically if you copy what I write for B6 and B8 in Excel - you can put in the odds in B5 and B7 and do it yourself.

I understand so many sites have these calculators - but I like to do my own ML/RL/parlay/double bet/factor calculators so I can see for my self the inputs and how each factor weighs in.

Again, love both of your guys work.



 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2001
Posts: 59808
Posted: #190

Quote Originally Posted by Swoop:

Van, what do you think the -1 should be?  For you to make a nice sized play (i.e. 3-4 units)? 


The 1 and 1.5 should be at about -140 IMO - but I have a heavy gut lean to this one too.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2001
Posts: 59808
Posted: #191

Quote Originally Posted by happycap:

-117 on Pinny as of 11 pm EST.  Gonna join ya before it goes any higher Van, GL to all

And the dope that I am - the line is back down to +100.

Im done making predictions on line mvmts in intl soccer tournies.  It is flipping coins.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2001
Posts: 59808
Posted: #192

Quote Originally Posted by Fortmax:

Professor Van, is it   good to bet under 2 1/2 for   - 118 ?  

I dont like that bet at all.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2001
Posts: 59808
Posted: #193
Quote Originally Posted by spockgato:

good luck van

what would the book have to offer you pricewise
for you to make a play on the -1.5 ?

just wanted to get your thoughts there

fuck all the bullshit , you're more interesting than the dosequis guy  

Good question.

This all depends on the total, and likelihood of goals - but normally it is right at about 30 cents.  I actually am a little bit heavy on the -1.5 as opposed to -1 because I got +142 when the 1 and 1.5 was -108.  I took the 34 cents for a little bit more than I did the split line.

Stay thirsty my friend.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2001
Posts: 59808
Posted: #194

Quote Originally Posted by kvs23:

BakeMcBride - gotcha, thanks.

You are correct, it is 74.1% combined which is -286.

I set up a ton of calculators in an Excel spreadsheet (basically same place I try to handicap games).

For the -102 and +324 you can just "plug" those into let's say Cell B5
And then your B5 formula should be: =IF(B5>0,100/(100+B5),(-B5/(100-B5))).  That gets you 50.5% for -102 and 23.6% for +324.  Then, you just add and put in 74.1% in Cell B8 (for example).  Your B9 formula should be: =IF(B8>0.5,(-100*B8/(1-B8)),(100*(1-B8)/B8)).

So basically if you copy what I write for B6 and B8 in Excel - you can put in the odds in B5 and B7 and do it yourself.

I understand so many sites have these calculators - but I like to do my own ML/RL/parlay/double bet/factor calculators so I can see for my self the inputs and how each factor weighs in.

Again, love both of your guys work.



Love the math - and love the fact that I didnt have to get involved and use my brain!

Great work.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2007
Posts: 423
Posted: #195
Good Luck Vanzack on your big play!!
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 20863
Posted: #196
Argentina in a must win against Columbia. Playing in Argentina in Messi's home town. Can't see Argentina losing, they need the 3 points, especailly after the Draw with Bolivia.

GL 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2011
Posts: 757
Posted: #197
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

I dont like that bet at all.


Thanks Prof. Vanzack, i will go over this time.
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2010
Posts: 8525
Posted: #198
Good luck.  I don't wanna handcuff myself with my Argentina future and ruining that and in the small chance they don't win today.  I am laying off this game, however I fully expect your wager to win.

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 1988
Posted: #199
Fortmax - the over is not a smart play here because the most likely scenario for this match is one where Argentina is the only team that scores. If that is the case, then you have bet Argentina -2.5 as opposed to Argentina -1 or -1.5 as vanzack has posted as his play. This is a mistake I see friends make often because the notion of laying goals in soccer seems to bother people, but when you think about it, you're making the win harder than it has to be.
 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2008
Posts: 3356
Posted: #200
Columbia lining up a 4-1-4-1 formation. Bunkering in by the looks of it. Early Argentina goal and that rout will surely come. 

BOL


All Forums | Soccer
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright � 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.