Turkey / Italy (Rome) – Turkey +.5 +168 (2 to win 3.36) LOSS Wales / Switzerland (Baku) – Switzerland -.25 -110 (1.1 to win 1) HALF LOSS Denmark / Finland (Copenhagen) – Under 2.25 -120 (2.4 to win 2) WIN Belgium / Russia (St Petersburg) – Belgium .75 -110 (3.3 to win 3) WIN exact score
Sunday June 13:
England / Croatia (London) – England -135 (1.35 to win 1) – Overrated as usual, but playing at Wembley they should be able to out-speed the Croatians and win. Im not overly confident and wish this game was not the first, but cheap enough to bet. 2-1
Austria / N Macedonia (Bucharest) – Under 2 +110 (2 units to win 2.2) – N Macedonia should be very cautious here and thrilled with a draw. Austria just doesn’t have much firepower outside of Arnautovic. 0-0
Ukraine / Netherlands (Amsterdam) – Under 2.25 -110 (1.1 to win 1) – Another first round low scoring match from two teams who know a draw is good news to both. 0-0
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Updated Results:
+2.45 units (5 units up, 2.55 units down)
Turkey / Italy (Rome) – Turkey +.5 +168 (2 to win 3.36) LOSS Wales / Switzerland (Baku) – Switzerland -.25 -110 (1.1 to win 1) HALF LOSS Denmark / Finland (Copenhagen) – Under 2.25 -120 (2.4 to win 2) WIN Belgium / Russia (St Petersburg) – Belgium .75 -110 (3.3 to win 3) WIN exact score
Sunday June 13:
England / Croatia (London) – England -135 (1.35 to win 1) – Overrated as usual, but playing at Wembley they should be able to out-speed the Croatians and win. Im not overly confident and wish this game was not the first, but cheap enough to bet. 2-1
Austria / N Macedonia (Bucharest) – Under 2 +110 (2 units to win 2.2) – N Macedonia should be very cautious here and thrilled with a draw. Austria just doesn’t have much firepower outside of Arnautovic. 0-0
Ukraine / Netherlands (Amsterdam) – Under 2.25 -110 (1.1 to win 1) – Another first round low scoring match from two teams who know a draw is good news to both. 0-0
Turkey didn't show up to play. Period. It starts with a terrible gameplan, and ends with players not knowing where to go with the ball and no organization. Either this team decides to play or they decide to go home - there is no middle here. Wales on deck in Baku is a must win.
Remember what I said about set plays? Both goals in the Switz / Wales match were corner kicks. The Welsh goal was a set piece SET PLAY. I felt like it was slow motion - if you watch it again - you can see it was more like an American football play with routes and timing than a typical soccer play. Switzerland obviously deserved more - but you get spanked in this sport when you dont do the fundamentals all the time.
I really have nothing to say about Denmark vs Finland other than you could watch 1,000 games and not have a result like that. 22 shots to 1, 9 corners to 0 - but the obvious Eriksen situation and all of it.... Just wipe it from your memory.
Belgium handled a very poor Russia side as I expected. Nothing new learned. For me - Russia will also struggle against both remaining opponents as well - even though they have a serious talent edge on Finland.
One general note..... It is tough as hell to get games up early knowing that better lines are to come. Everyone who bet on Belgium got them -.5 EV or better, but when I posted they were -145. Very hard for me to do but I am trying to get these up as early as possible - but that might have to change and be more of a daily posting like 24 hours in advance.
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Some thoughts....
Turkey didn't show up to play. Period. It starts with a terrible gameplan, and ends with players not knowing where to go with the ball and no organization. Either this team decides to play or they decide to go home - there is no middle here. Wales on deck in Baku is a must win.
Remember what I said about set plays? Both goals in the Switz / Wales match were corner kicks. The Welsh goal was a set piece SET PLAY. I felt like it was slow motion - if you watch it again - you can see it was more like an American football play with routes and timing than a typical soccer play. Switzerland obviously deserved more - but you get spanked in this sport when you dont do the fundamentals all the time.
I really have nothing to say about Denmark vs Finland other than you could watch 1,000 games and not have a result like that. 22 shots to 1, 9 corners to 0 - but the obvious Eriksen situation and all of it.... Just wipe it from your memory.
Belgium handled a very poor Russia side as I expected. Nothing new learned. For me - Russia will also struggle against both remaining opponents as well - even though they have a serious talent edge on Finland.
One general note..... It is tough as hell to get games up early knowing that better lines are to come. Everyone who bet on Belgium got them -.5 EV or better, but when I posted they were -145. Very hard for me to do but I am trying to get these up as early as possible - but that might have to change and be more of a daily posting like 24 hours in advance.
@vanzack Would you bet Denmark +115 over Russia for the match on 6/21?
Very interesting question with a not so short answer.....
If it were the first match, or a knockout - yes for sure.
BUT...
Lets analyze the possibilities after round 2....
We have a situation where it is possible for all teams to be on 3 points heading in to week 3. If Russia beat Finland (in St Petersburg) as a 150ish favorite, and Denmark beat Belgium in Copenhagen - then all teams are on 3 points. Belgium would have Finland in the last week on a neutral pitch (St Petersburg) and you would have to expect them to win that fairly easily. Which sets up a nightmare scenario if you made this Denmark +115 bet of having a team that is playing in a match where a draw puts BOTH teams through and favors BOTH teams playing. I realize this is a long way off, but something to think about.
On the other hand.... If Russia wins and Belgium win (or draws vs Denmark), you have a team that has to win to move on - and that is a place I would really like to have Denmark against Russia at home at +115.
Add in the Eriksen situation which is a big unknown. I think they will rebound and maybe come out with a new sense of purpose - but it is possible also that they just can't overcome the emotions and fold up. There is always a team or two in every tournament who are expected to go far and bomb out. Is that Denmark? I dont think so. But who knows.
So I think betting them now is very speculative for a lot of reasons - but all things equal - if this was game 1 of the knockouts I love Denmark at +115 vs Russia - but I am not betting them yet in this situation.
GL
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Quote Originally Posted by Dewby:
@vanzack Would you bet Denmark +115 over Russia for the match on 6/21?
Very interesting question with a not so short answer.....
If it were the first match, or a knockout - yes for sure.
BUT...
Lets analyze the possibilities after round 2....
We have a situation where it is possible for all teams to be on 3 points heading in to week 3. If Russia beat Finland (in St Petersburg) as a 150ish favorite, and Denmark beat Belgium in Copenhagen - then all teams are on 3 points. Belgium would have Finland in the last week on a neutral pitch (St Petersburg) and you would have to expect them to win that fairly easily. Which sets up a nightmare scenario if you made this Denmark +115 bet of having a team that is playing in a match where a draw puts BOTH teams through and favors BOTH teams playing. I realize this is a long way off, but something to think about.
On the other hand.... If Russia wins and Belgium win (or draws vs Denmark), you have a team that has to win to move on - and that is a place I would really like to have Denmark against Russia at home at +115.
Add in the Eriksen situation which is a big unknown. I think they will rebound and maybe come out with a new sense of purpose - but it is possible also that they just can't overcome the emotions and fold up. There is always a team or two in every tournament who are expected to go far and bomb out. Is that Denmark? I dont think so. But who knows.
So I think betting them now is very speculative for a lot of reasons - but all things equal - if this was game 1 of the knockouts I love Denmark at +115 vs Russia - but I am not betting them yet in this situation.
Yeah - Im really uneasy about the England lineup today. Chilwell not even on the team?
Attacking is fine. Lots of options that are fairly equal. But Trippier playing out of position at LB? Kalvin Phillips going up against the midfield of Croatia?
Like I said earlier, this line of -185 for England is absurd.
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Yeah - Im really uneasy about the England lineup today. Chilwell not even on the team?
Attacking is fine. Lots of options that are fairly equal. But Trippier playing out of position at LB? Kalvin Phillips going up against the midfield of Croatia?
Like I said earlier, this line of -185 for England is absurd.
Modrics position has changed from being the highest player up on the press to dropping back more. Helping Croatia beat the press when they win the ball.
Look where Modric is picking up the ball now vs where he was for first fifteen minutes. Clear positioning change. Hasnt joined attack at all in last seven minutes
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Modrics position has changed from being the highest player up on the press to dropping back more. Helping Croatia beat the press when they win the ball.
Look where Modric is picking up the ball now vs where he was for first fifteen minutes. Clear positioning change. Hasnt joined attack at all in last seven minutes
Kalvin Phillips clearly not playing as a defensive mid today, he has ben very influential in attack. Surprising for a normally dominant defensive mid (1 goal all season for Leeds Utd)
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Kalvin Phillips clearly not playing as a defensive mid today, he has ben very influential in attack. Surprising for a normally dominant defensive mid (1 goal all season for Leeds Utd)
Pretty even half on balance after the first fifteen minutes dominated by the England press and Croatias inability to get out. Croatia has made adjustments to pick up the ball in midfield deeper, which has given them more possession and a slower build up.
Expect more of the same in the second half. The longer it stays scoreless the more you should see Croatia (and possibly England) playing for the draw. Both know a draw is not the worst result here.
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Pretty even half on balance after the first fifteen minutes dominated by the England press and Croatias inability to get out. Croatia has made adjustments to pick up the ball in midfield deeper, which has given them more possession and a slower build up.
Expect more of the same in the second half. The longer it stays scoreless the more you should see Croatia (and possibly England) playing for the draw. Both know a draw is not the worst result here.
Officially adding 1 unit to the Netherlands / Ukraine under at current line.
Sunday June 13:
England / Croatia (London) – England -135 (1.35 to win 1) – Overrated as usual, but playing at Wembley they should be able to out-speed the Croatians and win. Im not overly confident and wish this game was not the first, but cheap enough to bet. 2-1
Austria / N Macedonia (Bucharest) – Under 2 +110 (2 units to win 2.2) – N Macedonia should be very cautious here and thrilled with a draw. Austria just doesn’t have much firepower outside of Arnautovic. 0-0
Ukraine / Netherlands (Amsterdam) – Under 2.25 -110 (1.1 to win 1) and Under 2.5 +110 (1 to win 1.1) – Another first round low scoring match from two teams who know a draw is good news to both. 0-0
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Officially adding 1 unit to the Netherlands / Ukraine under at current line.
Sunday June 13:
England / Croatia (London) – England -135 (1.35 to win 1) – Overrated as usual, but playing at Wembley they should be able to out-speed the Croatians and win. Im not overly confident and wish this game was not the first, but cheap enough to bet. 2-1
Austria / N Macedonia (Bucharest) – Under 2 +110 (2 units to win 2.2) – N Macedonia should be very cautious here and thrilled with a draw. Austria just doesn’t have much firepower outside of Arnautovic. 0-0
Ukraine / Netherlands (Amsterdam) – Under 2.25 -110 (1.1 to win 1) and Under 2.5 +110 (1 to win 1.1) – Another first round low scoring match from two teams who know a draw is good news to both. 0-0
Van, just notice on your twitter that you have under 2.25 on Austra/N Macendonia and also under 2.75 on Ukraine/Netherlands but here on covers its Under 2 and Under 2.5. Just confused about it im tailing both but didnt notice you have different bets on twitter.
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Van, just notice on your twitter that you have under 2.25 on Austra/N Macendonia and also under 2.75 on Ukraine/Netherlands but here on covers its Under 2 and Under 2.5. Just confused about it im tailing both but didnt notice you have different bets on twitter.
Van, just notice on your twitter that you have under 2.25 on Austra/N Macendonia and also under 2.75 on Ukraine/Netherlands but here on covers its Under 2 and Under 2.5. Just confused about it im tailing both but didnt notice you have different bets on twitter.
Lines move. I cant control that. I wrote a similar message on twitter about timing. I always post current widely available lines at the time I post on either twitter or here. And BTW, I almst always get better lines personally than I post for a lot of reasons that I have discussed here on covers for 20+ years.
It is a tough balance for me to post early because thats what people want, while balancing lineup moves and line changes. I have decided to post game selections within 24 hours instead of four days in advance.
I like both unders. How you wager has to be up to you.
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Quote Originally Posted by Swft:
Van, just notice on your twitter that you have under 2.25 on Austra/N Macendonia and also under 2.75 on Ukraine/Netherlands but here on covers its Under 2 and Under 2.5. Just confused about it im tailing both but didnt notice you have different bets on twitter.
Lines move. I cant control that. I wrote a similar message on twitter about timing. I always post current widely available lines at the time I post on either twitter or here. And BTW, I almst always get better lines personally than I post for a lot of reasons that I have discussed here on covers for 20+ years.
It is a tough balance for me to post early because thats what people want, while balancing lineup moves and line changes. I have decided to post game selections within 24 hours instead of four days in advance.
I like both unders. How you wager has to be up to you.
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