liverpool fc thread 2014-15

hi everyone! you may remember me from last year's thread, we did pretty well last season and hope to continue things this season. unfortunately, i can't say the same of the team's offseason for now 

overview: 

GK - mignolet was a solid shot stopper in his first season, and as he gets more comfortable with the team he will improve his command of the box as well. 

defense - should see a boost with lovren, but the fact is liverpool will both score a lot and concede a lot just due to their style of play, so any improvements may not be reflected in the final scoreline, but could be in the spread. 

midfield - a henderson/gerrard/coutinho mid 3 should still be a position of strength and with improved depth in lallana/can/allen should fare at least as well as last year. 

frontline - sturridge could improve on his goal total from last year but whether this translates into an improved team success remains to be seen. see improvements from sterling as well but smaller teams parking the bus may prove to be more difficult unlocking than last year. 

transfers: 

out: SUAREZ - apparently this transfer was planned a year in advance. as a fan it's really hard for me to begrudge him as he always left it all out on the pitch everytime he put on the jersey and with the persecution from the media, the fact that his wife's family lived in barcelona, not having to carry the entire team on his back, and the chance to challenge for every trophy every year it wasn't really a tough business call to make. not everyone who plays for the team has local ties like gerrard/carragher. 

it is just amazing to me how a lot of liverpool fans think he's some guy you can replace with anyone off the street like you can trade 40 pennies for a dollar and somehow expect to come out ahead.  the really frustrating thing is i believe suarez truly would have been a red for life if liverpool was at city or chelsea's level as a club. so would macca, owen, xabi, masch and torres for that matter. none of them were "mercenaries" , they all knew what it meant to pull on the red jersey. the elephant in the room is that the club simply wasn't at the level needed to attract the top players. so this negative cycle of selling your best players, club underachieving due to their absence, and having the next round of best players leave continues and who knows when, or if it will ever end. one good thing about sports betting is it can be used to mitigate disappointment as a fan, (somewhat)

once upon a time, liverpool was the real madrid/barcelona of the world! unfortunately, the only one who seems to realize this(or care) at the moment is brendan rodgers, and his frustration at the events of the summer has been subtle but evident in the preseason. i can see him having a jurgen klopp melt down sometime next season. i can see myself having one too. the club needs to do something about their damn blissful mediocrity before they become permanently seen as a feeder club. there is always new money coming into football(see chelsea, monaco, psg) and if no one cares enough to maintain the standing, there will always be challengers next in line. (5 years ago, liverpool was probably seen as a better european team than bayern munich. look where they are now!) 

agger - i don't see him as necessarily worse than the other options at cb, but if he wants regular playing time then he's probably going to need to find it at a different club. best wishes to a long time veteran of the club

reina: same with agger 

in:

lovren - 20 million - probably a slight upgrade over skrtel/agger atm with potential for more. he's a decent cb and will help solve some, but not all, of the team's defensive issues. 

lallana - overpriced because of his nationality, but rodgers should find a way to maximize his potential. doesn't really fill the role of suarez but good depth addition to the squad. 

emre can - looked pretty good in preseason, will be great as a substitute or for certain cup/europe games. 

markovic - as a prospect he's worth a shot. unfortunately, he's not going to replace suarez right away lol. suarez had a goal scoring record of 2 in every 3 games before he came to liverpool, while markovic only had a 1 in 5. he could eventually develop into a ronaldo type but key word is could. 

lambert - at 4 million not a bad business. he has a decent touch around goal and is a boyhood fan so he will always give it his all. not going to fill the canyon-sized gap suarez leaves but could become a cult favorite like craig bellamy. 

origi - like the player, showed a lot at the world cup, and has the perfect style of play for the premier league. could be a revelation next year when he returns from loan. 

manquillo - like him, but don't know if he's necessarily better than jose enrique at the moment. i would sub him for johnson but johnson's place is apparently untouchable. 

a falcao or reus would be a fantastic addition and will most likely consolidate a top 4 spot, but it will still be tough to replace suarez like for like, as he was an underrated assist player as well. 

as witnessed during the preseason, liverpool 1st half will still be an autoplay for me this entire season. overall, i will probably be looking into mostly unders this year as the team slowly incorporates the new additions into the lineup. as usual, i see the team having a much better second half of the season than the first. whether this will be enough to maintain the team's top 4 spot remains to be seen. overall the absence of suarez will mostly be felt against the smaller teams. 

for the premier league overall i see a top 3 between arsenal, city, and chelsea, and liverpool, united, everton, and spurs fighting it out for the final spot. both races will be extremely close and could come down to the last couple round of matches. 

arsenal - my pick to win the league next season. people forget they led the league for over half the season last yr and only fell off due to injuries, and even then they only finished 7 points off the pace. sanchez is a fantastic addition and wenger will find a way to incorporate him into an already dangerous attack. they should win and cover against most of the smaller teams but i wouldn't tail them against other top teams as the arteta/ramsey/wilshere midfield tends to get overrun. the points they pick up against the non top 4 teams this year may be enough, however, it will be extremely close between them, chelsea, and city as usual. 

chelsea - filled both their weaknesses from last season with an attacking midfielder in fabregas and a true #9 in diego costa. however, they still seemed really disjointed on offense last yr for a top team and ironically could have trouble moving the parked bus again. from a wagering perspective, they are the opposite of arsenal, as in i wouldn't trust them to cover a -2 against aston villa, per se, but just blindly taking them against the top teams in the league should be profitable again. 

city - didn't make too many changes, but then again they didn't really need to. they were the most consistent side in the league last yr despite injury and can expect them to challenge in all fronts again. 

manchester united - they are a popular preseason pick to win the title despite the fact they finished 22 points off the pace last year. like liverpool, they made a couple of transfer additions for the future in shaw and herrera but they were mostly acquisitions for the long term as opposed to immediately. as usual full of sound and fury in the transfer market signifying nothing again, suggesting they may be more broke than they are letting on. van gaal will improve their attack and tactics against the top teams but they still have giant holes in the midfield and in the back. won't touch this public team against the spread but will ride their overs till the wheels fall off. 

spurs - avb is a terrible man manager and most of his team quit on him last year, derailing the season before it even began. however, pochettino is an astute manager tactically and with more resources at his disposal than at southampton he could make some noise this season. it will be hard for all of their players to underachieve as much as they did last season as well so they could be a dark horse for the 4th spot. good undervalued team to start the season and could be worth tailing.  

everton - everton finished just outside the top 4 last season, and with the return of lukaku and barry they should challenge again. roberto martinez is one of the best managers in the epl and with a lot of young talent this could be a season where they make the breakthrough. 

newcastle, palace, stoke, swansea, etc should all be solidly midtable again, with the potential of pulling off surprise results at home. leicester could also surprise in their 1st season back.

there also may be a few surprising relegation candidates this season such as villa, west ham, and southampton. west brom narrowly avoided the drop last yr and this season they may not be as lucky. overall we may see teams bunched at both the top and bottom this year. 

I float in and out of the forums now bc most has turned to trash but this thread i ll follow. I am a die hard Everton supporter agree with most of your comments on teams. I think Reds will miss Suarez more than most think unless they replace him with a big signing. To say its ok is silly he was a beast last yr. Lambert looks like a fat turd so far.

Nice preview totallypsycho.   

Interesting take on Man. U. I can't disagree.

What is your opinion on Southampton selling most of their best players? I feel Liverpool has a good chance of winning that week # 1 match.

 

cheers! thanks for the support and for stopping by. i'm actually from the us so i can't say i have much animosity for everton  but i've been a liverpool fan since i was a kid, been 16 years now. we are in for a rude awakening this season lol.  i wish it wasnt true but some of the sunshiners among us will be in for a nasty little shock this year. always one step forward 2 steps back same garbage different season with this team lol but brendan rodgers is the one of the few i have confidence in to surprise me. hahaha 

city are machines i don't see them slowing down, in fact they may even surpass their point total from last season. not too sure about how much better chelsea will be this year, i think fabregas will adjust well back to the epl and if i had to guess costa would too but he could be a one season wonder. may wait and see how they play for a few games.

i do like van gaal as a manager and think he will be a significant upgrade over moyes but the fergie days are long gone imo. this united team has had severe personnel issues at the back and in midfield for a long time, which fergie managed to cover up but was really exposed under moyes. if they actually can get vidal things change of course. just think the quality of play in the epl is much higher than in the world cup, and van gaal doesn't have anybody as good as vlaar and de vrij at the back. a midfield like city's with yaya and the fernandos would work them over. i would not be surprised if they do finish top 3 but just the fact everyone and their moms are on united this season shrinks their value for me. 

as for spurs i wouldn't take them against any of the top 4, but i honestly don't think they can get any worse from last year. i liked soldado at valencia and think he will have a bounceback 2nd season in the epl.  

i don't necessarily think arsenal would be any good against the other top 4, but i don't remember them ever NOT finishing up in top 4 and can't see it ending this season. just think their system is too good at stacking up those 2-0 and 3-1 scores against lower opposition. ramsey is a stud in the middle of the park and if he stays healthy for a whole season watch out ! 

i do like the footy everton play and they showed some fun stuff last season.  to me stylistically they were the closest team to liverpool last season(and this season probably results wise too).

agree with your relegate picks. this may be the most fun epl season in a while. 

i'll also have a separate thread with epl/la liga/cl plays, etc. good luck this season!  

thanks ! 

fergie time's up!  

if i had to guess southampton would be dragged into the relegation battle this season, which is unfortunate, they have a good fanbase and tradition in the league. i think liverpool wins the first game but not sure about spread, we are going through our own adjustment period at the moment. lol 

even though it's a friendly, really pleased with the dortmund result today! really calmed a lot of my fears as a fan for the future. lovren exudes leadership qualities and really surprised me with his performance on the ball as well. coutinho bossed the game and can be counted on to fill a lot of suarez' assists from last season, and hopefully some of the goalscoring load as well. he will especially be great in the champions league against tight defenses. hopefully falcao was watching this game  

eff it 

Liverpool to win 2014/15 Premier League +1200 - 0.1 units 

liverpool ht/ft 
liverpool -1.5 

1-1 back at even. very lucky to win the bet as southampton played a great game, withstanding the storm relatively well the first half and turning the tables the second half. i was really surprised at the speed of their play, the incisiveness of their passing, and the clinicality of their finishing(mignolet was the only reason they didn't score 3-4 goals), all of which were trademarks of liverpool last season and what i believe is necessary to succeed in the modern day premier league.  liverpool did not play a poor game by any means and they were still very fortunate to win. despite their loss, can safely say southampton will be one of the more surprising teams this season. 

in other news today, liverpool also completed the transfer of mario balotelli from milan. it is a very interesting signing for many reasons, as balotelli can be seen as an almost direct replacement for suarez, both in function and in spirit. in my opinion he left italy for the exact same reasons suarez departed for spain, and it will be like a breath of fresh air for both of them. with his fast, physical style, balotelli has always been a player made for the premier league. under the highly regimented regimes of mancini and mourinho balotelli was relatively underappreciated. however, brendan rodgers is very much a player's coach and it should be noted suarez and sturridge both set career marks under him last season. mario's always been a bit of a free spirit, and his uniqueness must be tolerated, if not encouraged, for him to shine his brightest. when it's all said and done i predict he will become one of anfield's greatest legends, not quite in a gerrard/carragher kind of way but more of a cult hero like robbie fowler and luis suarez. it's their personality which makes them such legends and endears them to fans like us  

as from a wagering perspective, we can throw another 0.15 units on
Liverpool to win Premier League +1250 to make it a total of 0.25 units as well as 0.1 units on Liverpool to win Champions League +2550. 

see you on sunday for city! 

liverpool city - monday 12pm 

don't really see much this match to be honest. city ml looks tempting but it's kind of scary short at just -105.  but you can play Liverpool +320 1st half for 0.25 units for an action play. don't chase 2nd half if it doesn't hit though. 

Do you think we will see some goals? 

really depends if liverpool scores 1st half or not. 3 seems just right for total though 

not offside...(again) 
jovetic wrecks us...(again)

disappointing result on monday but not a horrible performance. liverpool controlled the first half possession wise but city scored on their only chance: that's why they're champions. most of the goals conceded were down to individual defensive errors but i attribute that simply to miscommunication and inexperience playing together; as the season goes along things should get better. on attack was where suarez's absence was truly felt as the team lacked a serious cutting edge and just tried to pass the ball into the goal. things improved with lambert's introduction however, which brings me faith that balotelli's addition will help the team a lot on that end. 

liverpool got a tricky but manageable draw in the champions league today. ludogoretz is a great story but hard to see anything but six points from these fixtures, though not sure about the spread; will take that on a game to game basis. real madrid is formidable as always but i feel they went for flash over substance in their transfer dealings this year as usual; xabi alonso and di maria were unsung but very key components to their decima win this yr. there might be some value on liverpool in these games, especially at anfield, as well as the over. kind of a bummer as a fan to see xabi alonso sold the same day; would have been nice to see the reception he would have got at anfield. basel is a really underrated side; they have had success against english teams in the past, and they have a decent attacking philosophy. prob looking at overs also in these games. advancement out of the group could come down to the last game of the group at anfield. overall, i feel this is the one competition that rafa benitez is better at than brendan rodgers, as he knew how to outtactic top european opposition consistently, especially on the road. not sure if rodgers' relentless attacking philosophy will be as consistently successful in europe as it is in the league, but he's a good coach; he'll learn to adjust. will wait and see how the games play out. 

Liverpool Tottenham 

liverpool 1st half ml 

i'm laying off 2nd half but its spurs or nothing 2nd half if you want an action play or to hedge or whatever 

liverpool villa - sat 9am 

after the international break, liverpool hosts aston villa. villa has been a bit of a bogey team for liverpool over the last couple of seasons at anfield, winning 3-1 two seasons ago and leading 2-0 last season before settling for a 2-2 draw. especially notable was the way villa beat liverpool at their own game last season, with lightning counter attacks and clinical finishing, and although benteke is out, in agbonlahor, n zogbia, and weimann they have the players to cause problems again.  

sterling and sturridge will be replaced by balotelli and lallana respectively for this game. vlaar will be out this game for villa, which will be a huge loss for them imo; he is one of the more underrated players in the premier league. liverpool away is not quite the ideal place to test out a new back line. 

rolling with liverpool 1st half spread, which is an autoplay for me at this point. 

Liverpool -0.75 +109 1st half - 1 unit 

liverpool vs ludogorets - tuesday 

liverpool's putrid home loss to villa was very reminiscent of the worst performances under benitez/hodgson. at least we'll always be next year's champions. but anyway, i suspect english teams are oddly UNDERvalued in europe due to the relative strength of the premier league. some people may argue they may under estimate the opposition but after the villa loss and the fact that this game marks the return of champions league to anfield after four long years, there is no way this team will not be focused and ready. ludogorets had a wonderful story advancing to the group stages, with their central defender replacing their goalie and saving two penalty kicks, but their goalie will be suspended here and will be faced with a team whose speed and technique has been unlike any other they've faced so far. i do believe liverpool's relative inexperience in this competition will show at some point but not this game. 

Liverpool -2 -103 - 2 units 

we REALLY friggin MISS SUAREZ 

liverpool west ham - sat 9:30 am 

the international break was not kind to liverpool, with injuries suffered by sturridge, allen, and emre can. allen's injury has been an underrated aspect of liverpool's struggles since then, with his pressing and work rate key to the team's game plan, and liverpool's press has not looked nearly as effective without his presence.  sturridge's absence has been equally huge for liverpool, as it seemed like balotelli and him were finally clicking as evidenced by the tottenham game, where it has been the only time this season liverpool has resembled the devastating offensive team of last season. without sturridge, liverpool has had to experiment with a lone striker, which is a system deployed only due to necessity and has not been nearly as effective as the diamond two striker formation. in both the villa and ludogorets games, balotelli as the lone striker worked hard but was isolated and starved of the service which has been so key to liverpool's offense of last season. BR now has to look to an unlikely savior in fabio borini.  borini, who was on the verge of being sold to sunderland but to his credit vowed to stay and fight for his place, will be deployed as a second striker to balotelli. although his goal scoring record is spotty, his running, pressing, and work rate is unquestionable, and for that he is to be commended. his presence is intended to kickstart the liverpool offense back into gear. although it will be difficult to replicate sturridge's exact presence in the frontline, he will most likely cause problems for the west ham back line simply due to his work rate, which in turn should make the offense flow more smoothly. 

it has been two games since liverpool has taken a first half lead, which seems like an eternity compared to the swashbuckling offense of last season. though, with the switch of formation back to the diamond, i'm willing to bet it doesn't last any longer.  anytime liverpool is +money in the first half, i'm going to take it. not going to think about the game too much, as liverpool is slightly favored by the books for a reason, and for that i'll roll with the bookies this game on the spread as well. if it doesn't hit, going to double up on them against everton at home, where sturridge is predicted to make his return. 

Liverpool 1st half ml +130 - 2 units 
Liverpool -0.75 +101 - 1 unit 

liverpool middlesbrough - tues 11:45 - capital one cup

no play. completely new lineup for liverpool with lambert starting so no idea how it will play out. maybe a halftime play 

liverpool everton - sat 4:45 

derby day! merseyside derby games are usually cagey, testy affairs, with the record for most yellow and red cards in any fixtures. form usually goes out the window in derbies as well. the last two games went easily over in the 3-3 and 4-0 games but just from my experience, those games were more of the exception than the rule. liverpool has struggled greatly against physical teams such as villa and west ham; however in everton; they are running up against a similar version of themselves, with an attacking philosophy and very few brick walls in both midfield and defense. 

dropping the liverpool first half ml for now. without joe allen and daniel sturridge, liverpool hasn't been able to execute their usual pressing game plan in the first half. contrary to popular opinion i see this game being an edgy, low scoring affair. everton have not won at anfield in 15 years now and it's hard to see them have the upper hand possession wise in this match, so it may be decided by a set piece.. if this match was a pk i'd think more about it but the fact that liverpool is favored will make me roll with them on the spread as well. 
the UNDER is a system play as well
Liverpool ml -110 - 1 unit 
Under 3 -114 - 1 unit 
Under 2.75 +119 - 1 unit 

if any game illustrated the importance of money management, the derby was it. it is simply impossible to predict when, where, and how occurrences like the last minute goal by everton will happen.
it is especially important in soccer where due to the relatively low scoring nature of the game, mooses, and mooses against the run of play can and will happen regularly. 

liverpool vs fc basel - weds 11:45 

liverpool travel to st jakob's park against european regulars fc basel, who have won the swiss league five years running now. although basel are not fancied to advance out of the group, they were also unfancied both in 2011-12, when they sent united to the europa league, and last season, where they won home and away against eventual semi-finalists chelsea, showing they know a thing or two about english opposition. no play on spread as it looks about just right to me. 

liverpool's games went over a lot last year, but their attack this year has been a mere shadow in both form and function. without the presence of joe allen and daniel sturridge again, liverpool have not been able to execute their high octane pressing game plan, which was so critical to their success last year, and against a technically sound side like basel it's difficult to see it changing. although both of the team's first group games went over, liverpool's attack is no where near the level of real madrid's, and two last minute goals pushed the liverpool game over when it was heading for an under. also, the fact that the teams are direct rivals for qualification and neither team will want to lose may lead to a cagey fixture. under is also a system play. 


under 2.75 -115 - 2 units 
under 2.5 +113 - 1 unit 

betting is a great way to (semi) compensate for repeated and never ending real life fan disappointments 

 back at even money this season. wish i could say the same about my team. 

liverpool vs west brom - sat 7am 

after another ugly defeat to basel in the champions league, their fifth game in a row without a win, liverpool return home to face west brom, who are flying in off a 4-0 win at burnley. prior to last season's 4-1 reverse at anfield, west brom had won three in a row in the league against liverpool, including two in a row at anfield, and will be seeking their third win in four matches at this ground. balotelli will also be replaced by rickie lambert in the starting lineup. why would anyone back liverpool right now? 

Liverpool -1.25 +108 - 1 unit 
Liverpool -1.5 +135 - 1 unit 
Liverpool ht/ft +120 - 1 unit 
Exact score: Liverpool 3 - West Brom 0 +1050 - 0.1 unit

not a homer pick by any means, it's what the line says. with lallana entering the lineup the pressing has also returned in the first half so ht/ft is worth a bet now too. they are ice cold so not going too big but if they still can't cover this spot it's time to lay off them for a longgg time.