liverpool fc thread 2014-15

 When's Sturridge due back we need him desperately.

 after the next int'l break. can't believe they let roy near any of our players again. lol 

liverpool qpr - sun 5:30 

write up got deleted. blah. yeah i see an easy win + over today 

Liverpool 1st half +110 - 1 unit 
-1 -110  - 1 unit 
-1.25 +123 - 1 unit 
over 2.75 -106 -  3 units 

liverpool real madrid - weds 11:45 am 

don't really love our odds here honestly. i know it's a big important game but liverpool have already flattered to deceive once this season against ludogorets, who is underrated to be fair but there is simply not enough quality and cohesion in the side right now as there have been in years past on those big european nights at an field.  there has been zero on pitch evidence this entire season that liverpool can get a result here today. that being said, i'll probably still go small on the spread as it's them or nothing. i do like the over here as it's a system play but won't go too big on it as real are missing a couple of starters and may play it safe.  

Liverpool +0.5 +109 - 1 unit
Liverpool ml +375 - 0.5 unit 
over 3.25 +101 - 2 units 

i can't cap my team worth anything when they are cold. i want to keep chasing a team thinking they will cover and they never do. it's been 10 games in all competitions since they covered(which honestly might be a record for soccer; i don't remember this ever happening). i never know whether to continue chasing or just wait it out in these kinds of situations, but the minute you stop chasing they cover. you never know honestly. 

played hull under this weekend but forgot to post so won't count it 

liverpool swansea - capital one cup 

lambert is definitely starting but whether balo will join him remains to be seen. markovic and borini and lucas will probably all play prominent roles; i wouldn't touch any overs in any game they play.  bony and sigurdsson may also be rested for swansea. probably just going to take a stab at the under. 

under 2.75 -102 - 2 units 

liverpool newcastle - sat 5:45 am 

liverpool ml moved from -125 ish opening to +114ish now. i'm not going to fade the books lol. lately liverpool has been dominating play in the midfield and even their defense has tightened up but the only thing that's missing has been the goals. balotelli broke his duck against swansea so i fancy him to start banging a few in from now on. 

Liverpool ml +114 - 2 units 

Can't touch pool atm, good luck though will be cheering them on.

u were right. they haven't covered since the spurs game. lol 

liverpool real - weds 11:45 am 

liverpool is a system play actually but they are obviously unbackable atm. borini markovic and lambert will be starting again so at least they are trying something new lol. real also get gareth bale back so they can probably name their score. over is a system play 

over 3.5 -107 - 3 units 

liverpool chelsea - sat 4:45 am

after what happened at united and maribor jose won't be playing around this game. as diego costa is starting the makeshift lineups chelsea have fielded at times this season will probably not be present here. similarly for liverpool sterling, balotelli, lallana, and gerrard will start again.

no idea on spread. chelsea should win but funny things happen at anfield. i am cutting way back on sides so prob not playing anything. chelsea or nothing though  

over is a system play. i know chelsea parks the bus usually in this kind of game but if they are going to start diego costa then there is no point to them doing that so they are probably going with a different strategy this game. it could be one of these games chelsea cover the over all by themselves. 

over 2.5 -109 - 2 units 
over 2.75 +121 - 1 unit 

 Agree today, 1-3 to Chelsea.

no play for palace game. not that surprising what happened. 

liverpool ludogorets  - 11:45 

liverpool shouldn't be favored against anyone at this point 

Ludogorets +301 - 1 unit 
draw +250 - 1 unit 

didn't have a play for last two games. liverpool has replaced lovren with kolo toure of the invincible arsenal team and also put lucas back in the starting lineup. although lucas' offensive limitations are well known, he is the best defensive specialist in the team, and with him there to handle the dirty work it leaves more space for everyone else to just concentrate on attacking. not surprisingly, it's also coincided with a 2 game winning streak by liverpool, although they have still been far below their best. 

liverpool sunderland - sat 7am 

liverpool are still far from where they want to be this season, but sunderland also can't be trusted on the road. system play says under so let's just roll with that again. 

under 2.5 -101 - 2 units

liverpool basel - tues 1145 am 

liverpool is only favored because they won a champions league NINE years ago. since sturridge's injury i have yet to see ONE convincing performance on the level of last season's title winning form(maybe second half of the west brom game for a half). on current form they look capable of losing to anybody at anytime and with sturridge's long term absence it will only get worse before it gets better. with kolo toure replacing lovren they've at least looked less likely to leak goals but they still lack that cutting edge from last season. they have only nicked results by sheer luck and (i'd really like to believe) resolve in the face of adversity, but i don't think it will be enough to cut it in a competition as high level as the champions league. sentiment aside basel is by far the better team and should advance tomorrow 

Basel +0.5 +116 - 1 unit 

looking ahead to the man u  / liverpool match... feels like there's some value with man u @ 1.85??   i would expect the price to shorten as the weekend approaches

not leaning that way myself personally, united are becoming jammy again but i think their luck runs out this weekend. this game also always means a LOT more to liverpool than man u these days 

 GL, hope your wrong 

PsychoI would have to agree that Basle is the better team right now, actually quite surprised at the odds being given out on the +handicap.

 as usual, i wish i was 

 i actually never play the fades of my own team i just don't have the heart to do it but if it helps other people then i guess it makes things a little bit better. 


i think tonight might have been stevie's last champions league game for liverpool  we don't do happy endings at this club 

 Nice call mate

Big game this weekend. I can definitely see liverpool getting a result at old trafford this sunday. The over might be another play that I am interested in, both teams lack any sort of defense.

thx again !  

702 i really don't know about total even though both defenses are leaky this is a derby game and they usually play tight. last yr's 1st game went under and 2nd game only went over after a red card 

liverpool man u - sun 5:30 am 

trip down memory lane for this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYiO7PoCZyY#t=13 

this was the worst loss i ever suffered as a fan(palace last season was 2nd i know it's not technically a loss), as even though it was just a fa cup game, the manner of both endings signified something bigger, that maybe it's just not meant to be in the end and suggested loudly and plainly that the tides of destiny had shifted against us forever and ever. but anyway 

fresh off their champions league elimination liverpool travel to the theatre of dreams. united are riding a 5 game winning streak but have ridden their luck in most of the games. 

think united will really miss di maria this game. i don't see liverpool dominating play or anything like that but because it's a derby game, they will probably run a little bit faster, tackle a little bit harder, and do all the little things required to nick a result. this game usually means a lot more to liverpool as it's their "super bowl" every year, as opposed to united who take this game seriously as well but usually have bigger and better things to worry about(not this season though). since fergie's retirement however their aura of invincibility has vanished and at such short favorites i have to take the other side. i know we stink right now i promise you can feel free to go right back to fading liverpool after this game but only after this game is over 

Liverpool +0.5 +106 - 2 units 

liverpool dominated the match statistically but united made the most of their chances. we can what if until the cows come home but the bottom line is they got the result and we didn't. saving the time handicapping and just auto-fading liverpool until sturridge comes back may not be a bad idea 

liverpool bournemouth - capital one cup 

even though bournemouth are in the championship, it's not like liverpool can beat anybody at the moment. they struggled with the 2nd place team in the championship middlesbrough at anfield and bournemouth are actually top and hosting this game. over is not system play but it's worth a stab as bournemouth average 4 goals a game and liverpool look likely to concede at least once every game (more if lovren starts)

Bournemouth +0.5 -114 - 1 unit 
over 2.75 +103 - 1 unit 

even though it was lower league opposition, the bournemouth game marked a partial return to the freewheeling style which took the premier league by storm last season, which to this point has been absent since the tottenham game in the 3rd league game of the season. the key has been moving raheem sterling to the lone striker's role up front, which has resulted in a much quicker tempo of play and a much higher rate of chance creation. liverpool 1st half may be a system play again soon.  stay tuned! 

liverpool arsenal - sun 

arsenal return to the scene of their 5-1 humiliation last season, where they were hit for four goals in the first half alone. some of the players from last season's fixture obviously won't be there anymore but there may be some elements which may suggest a similar result. 

the teams liverpool have the most trouble with are the teams who park the bus and play physical in the midfield, and look to hit on the counter, like aston villa and city to a degree.  when running up against the more finesse teams like everton, spurs, arsenal, and to a degree united, it plays right up the team's alley, as the midfield both gets more space to operate and to feed the team's attack with. with arsenal missing key players in midfield like ramsey, wilshere, and koscielny it will be tough for them to throw up roadblocks in this fixture which will play into liverpool's hands. 

i also cannot believe i am playing the under in a game like this, but it's a system play so i'll try and go small on it.  

Liverpool pk -104 - 1 unit 
Liverpool ml +176 - 0.5 unit 
Liverpool ht/ft +380 - 0.5 unit 
under 2.75 -105 - 0.5 unit 

liverpool was the better side against arsenal but two defensive lapses as usual allowed the gunners to walk away with a point. 
the good news is they dominated play again as usual in the 1st half and only some wayward finishing prevented a one sided scoreline. liverpool 1st half is back to being an autoplay from now on though and if it doesn't hit, you can put another unit on 2nd half ml (not doubling up for now)

liverpool burnley - thurs 7am 

burnley is a defensive side so i don't see them posing too big of an offensive threat this game. they may park the bus and limit the scoreline but i can only see one winner of this game 

Liverpool 1st half +135 - 1 unit 
under 2.75 -110 - 1 unit 

merry xmas everyone !