Monday EPL and Tuesday's UCL discussion

YTD: 48-62, +$72.50

Stoke win +110, 25 to win 27.50
Stoke -1, +225, 20 to win 45

Had a writeup then it got erased WTF.  Stoke's home form speaks for itself, they are a different team at the Britania, I think this is going to be a 2-0 Stoke win, and I'm betting that way.

Anyways wanted to get something different going in the forum, was hoping to use this thread as a discussion into tomorrow's UCL clashes, help each other make that $$.

First inital lean is Zenit and Shahktar BTTS.  Zenit has struck early or have been bit early in games in UCL and league play.  This is going to be an open game and I think goals will be aplenty. 2-1, 2-2, 3-2 either direction...

I will also be looking at an Arsenal, Milan, and Dortmund parlay on the win...

Well GL today and look forward to your input on tomorrow's games!

I'm anticipating a lot of personnel changes for Milan. I know they out class their opponents, but on a back to back situation where Milan have been travelling and their defence leaking goals, I'm not sure its worth the price. Just a thought. Nothing conclusive.

Napoli's lineup against Catania this weekend, where they left Campagnaro and Aronica on the bench suggest to me that they will indeed go to Munich looking for a 0-0 draw. Really hard to see it come to fruition vs their opponents on that day. Just a thought. Nothing conclusive.

Is stoke playing their starters or resting players? 

Posted this in Billy's thread by mistake.
Stoke Squad: Begovic, Sorensen, Nash, Wilson, Huth, Shawcross, Upson, Wilkinson, Whelan, Whitehead, Diao, Etherington, Walters, Shotton, Arismendi, Pennant, Delap, Crouch, Palacios, Jerome, Jones, Higginbotham, Woodgate. Newcastle Squad: Krul, Elliot, Simpson, R Taylor, Santon, Ferguson, Coloccini, S Taylor, Perch, Cabaye, Gutierrez, Marveaux, Obertan, Gosling, Guthrie, Ben Arfa, Abeid, Vuckic, Smith, Ba, Best, Lovenkrands, Sammy Ameobi.

Thanks Pilotboy, but I do not know the teams and their starters.

Lol just realized that too. Still looking into the official XI. Check back near gametime. My bad.

Bubba...

I am passing on that Napoli game at Munich.  Munich has been so good, tough to imagine Napoli getting anything out of this game.

I was looking at the Milan game, Milan gets the 3 points on the road, and they clinch their way into the next round.  The problem with Milan is they have leaked goals in their recent results.  I was looking at something on the lines of Milan getting a win, both teams scoring.  3-1 Milan I'm thinking.  This is just my early thoughts, definitely have to see what kind of team Milan is fielding.

Just in case I can't.
www.stokecityfc.com
Should have all the details and lineup once it comes out. I do see some injuries to Newcastle tho as stated in this site. GL

Dubs03....did you get a chance to look over Wednesday?...If so...what is your take on Benfica vs Basel. Looking for some big + money play. Thinking of Basel team total over 1.5 at +500ish or even the unthinkable Basel ML at +1000ish. They played a great away game against ManU last time out, and have run 3 straight domestic wins and scoring 4 in their most recent. Don't feel obligated to agree with me.

seems like low scoring match.under 2,5 goals might be the best bet u can get

Bubba, as a Benfica fan and team knower, stay away from that game. This may seem like homer talk, but i'm pretty sure Basel don't stand a chance. That Manchester United tie was a fluke, they don't have the quality to win in Lisbon. I'm thinking Benfica win 2-0 again. Benfica won 2-1 in their last league match, and players were visibly slowing down the tempo, saving themselves for wednesdays match against Basel.

Haha I am from Switzerland and follow the league closely...Stay away from Basel. You basically never know what team they will bring. On one hand the moral is sky high now after winning the big rivalry in Switzerland, vs Zurich, proven by the weekend's 4-1 win, so you would expect a good display. On the other hand though, their best performance of the season, at Old Trafford, where they really should have won, was precursed and followed by pathetic displays.

I will say this...Basel do not necessarily expect to qualify to the next stages. They get a huge boost out of the round robin stage money, and they will not mind playing EL as opposed to CL. I think that at this point they realize qualification is partly slipping away. Had they won at Old Trafford and been group leaders, and then not played poorly vs Benfica, they might approach this game differently.

Basel will approach this game with 2 mentalities...1) we have to win, there is still a chance to qualify, if this is the case then I would expect them to win, they are a REALLY good team and by far the best in Switzerland when motivated. 2) they are happy with where they are, and will just take third by beating Otelul Galati and move on to EL.

The problem is I really have no idea who will show up. Benfica have not impressed me that much, so if Basel go with option 1 I expect a win. At the same time, you have to wonder why they didn't just do that two weeks ago.

So in conclusion, if you really want to place a wager on this game, probably go with Benfica because if Basel wanted to win and move on, they would have had to do it last time. Playing at Benfica only makes this harder. But in all honesty, I would stay away.

I might be able to give more insight come gametime, depending on what the Swiss news puts out.

Paradox....I appreciate your insight....Benfica have not held a clean sheet at home in 7 straight overall home games...some teams lesser than Basel's quality. I might take a stab at the team total.

I think the best play may be over 2.5.

The Benfica-Basel game looks like a BTTS bet for me.  Basel has some very good strikers in the Frei's who are both experienced internationals and have shown they can score on the biggest stage.  Benfica also has the ability to open things, I'd think the second time facing a team will allow each team to find a spot to exploit.  I'd lean benfica to win at home if I had a gun to my head, otherwise BTTS looks like the best bet.

Also if anyone needs a link to the Stoke-Newcastle game, it's a pretty good feed

here is one https://98sportss.blogspot.com/p/soccer.html