Posted:
#1
Let's try to take on Saturday,
Here are my picks, from Sweden and Spain..and of course - Portugal.
Jönkoping - Husqvarna: Pick: Husqvarna X2 @ 1.85 (1 u)
Strange oddsmaking on this game, Husqvarna are given 26.66% chance according to the odds, while Jönköping are given above 50% chance. I am all for probability versus value when making a conclusion, but this is a spot I find wrong.
Keep in mind this is a derby, and the newcomers Husqvarna currently top the table - surprisingly but they have been playing really well, while Jönköping Södra has not been up to their standards and are still without victory after 4 rounds, also injuries are in the way for J-Södra, so why are they given the 51.28% chance of winning? All value is on Husqvarna, even if it is a derby and feelings are emotional and J-Södra will play with desperation to get the first win. I fancy a draw or an away win, too much value to pass on. X2 it is.
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Valladolid - Espanyol: Pick: Valladolid @ 2.00 (1 u)
Circumstances are clear, Valladolid has to win, time is ticking and a three pointer is due if they want to survive. At home against Espanyol, this is pretty much a do-or-die case, and when the pressured team plays at home - I always like the spot. Motivation beats class in these situations according to me, that is why I am laying a unit on Valladolid. They have 9 straight home games in the league without a loss, which is a very good streak - I will take the chance and back them while they are playing their most important game of the season so far. Espanyol have only taken 16 of their total 41 points on the road, which shows that they are a less comfortable team away from home. Valladolid to survive in La Liga? then a win is a must.
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Nacional - Sporting: Pick: Nacional 1X @ 1.85 (1 u)
Both teams have gotten what they wanted, and this is a useless game as neither team can drop or gain any position in the league. Sporting qualified for the Champions League and that is a great achievement for them, I am really excited to see how they will do against the big European teams. Nacional has played over their ability all season which has earned them an Europa League spot. Now they take on Sporting in a pretty useless game. Sporting will use a pretty mixed team with substitution players which has gotten limited playing time, and also some players from Sporting B will get the chance, so we won't see a very a burning competitiveness in Sporting as we have seen when they tried to secure the Champions League spot. Expect a rotation. Nacional on the other hand will field a strong team, and they are located on the Madeira Island, which is a hard place to go to as I have mentioned before. In fact, this is a good chance for the Nacional players to show themselves, do it for marketing themselves for other bigger Portuguese clubs and gain market value, so they would play with some motivation. An open game is expected, more like a friendly approach so the "over" is to consider as well. I like Nacional here though, a reserve/rotating Sporting team should not escape with three points from Madeira. 1X is good value
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Good luck to all!
Here are my picks, from Sweden and Spain..and of course - Portugal.
Jönkoping - Husqvarna: Pick: Husqvarna X2 @ 1.85 (1 u)
Strange oddsmaking on this game, Husqvarna are given 26.66% chance according to the odds, while Jönköping are given above 50% chance. I am all for probability versus value when making a conclusion, but this is a spot I find wrong.
Keep in mind this is a derby, and the newcomers Husqvarna currently top the table - surprisingly but they have been playing really well, while Jönköping Södra has not been up to their standards and are still without victory after 4 rounds, also injuries are in the way for J-Södra, so why are they given the 51.28% chance of winning? All value is on Husqvarna, even if it is a derby and feelings are emotional and J-Södra will play with desperation to get the first win. I fancy a draw or an away win, too much value to pass on. X2 it is.
_________________
Valladolid - Espanyol: Pick: Valladolid @ 2.00 (1 u)
Circumstances are clear, Valladolid has to win, time is ticking and a three pointer is due if they want to survive. At home against Espanyol, this is pretty much a do-or-die case, and when the pressured team plays at home - I always like the spot. Motivation beats class in these situations according to me, that is why I am laying a unit on Valladolid. They have 9 straight home games in the league without a loss, which is a very good streak - I will take the chance and back them while they are playing their most important game of the season so far. Espanyol have only taken 16 of their total 41 points on the road, which shows that they are a less comfortable team away from home. Valladolid to survive in La Liga? then a win is a must.
_______________
Nacional - Sporting: Pick: Nacional 1X @ 1.85 (1 u)
Both teams have gotten what they wanted, and this is a useless game as neither team can drop or gain any position in the league. Sporting qualified for the Champions League and that is a great achievement for them, I am really excited to see how they will do against the big European teams. Nacional has played over their ability all season which has earned them an Europa League spot. Now they take on Sporting in a pretty useless game. Sporting will use a pretty mixed team with substitution players which has gotten limited playing time, and also some players from Sporting B will get the chance, so we won't see a very a burning competitiveness in Sporting as we have seen when they tried to secure the Champions League spot. Expect a rotation. Nacional on the other hand will field a strong team, and they are located on the Madeira Island, which is a hard place to go to as I have mentioned before. In fact, this is a good chance for the Nacional players to show themselves, do it for marketing themselves for other bigger Portuguese clubs and gain market value, so they would play with some motivation. An open game is expected, more like a friendly approach so the "over" is to consider as well. I like Nacional here though, a reserve/rotating Sporting team should not escape with three points from Madeira. 1X is good value
__________
Good luck to all!
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