Tues Champions League

Covers Posted Soccer: 105-79 +52.10 units

Real Madrid v Manchester United over 3 +104 2 units

First and foremost, a little Champions League trend discussion:  Last season 11 of 14 Champions League second legs went Over 2.5 Goals.  In the last couple of seasons, we have seen a trend to goals in the second leg game in the last 16 stage as 23 of 32 have produced three or more.  Of the 12 Second leg games where the first leg finished 1-1 , 10 went over.

Factor in the play of Madrid lately, scoring at least 2 goals in back to back games against Barcelona.  I could take a complete paragraph rifling off the names of every goal scoring threat that this game has to offer.  This game is perhaps the matchup with the most goal scoring threats on either side of the field in this round.  The last 2 meetings between these two teams at Old Trafford produced 12 goals.  

There seems to be a change a foot in Europe.  No longer do the majority of the games involve teams that sit back, defend for 90 minutes and try to hit you on the 1 or 2 counter chances that they get.  Today’s power house teams know that attacking their opponent is key.  Establishing their game is paramount. These are two teams that like to establish themselves early and I don’t expect these two power filled line-ups to sit back and fail to utilize the numerous weapons at their disposal.  You could take the reserves for both teams and field a formidable Champions League squad.  That is how much respect I have for these two clubs.

Madrid allowed a home goal.  They will have no choice but to seek out a goal in this match and will need to push forward.  I factor both teams scoring and in fact, my most likely outcome according to my models is 2-2.  Madrid is in awesome form at the moment and I don’t think that Man U will be able to stop them.

My morning is tight … I need to get to a hearing that should be done in time to get home to watch the game and for that reason I will need to leave all the statistics out but rest assured, you are dealing with two of the highest scoring teams in Europe and two that are also susceptible to allowing a goal.

Back later

I'm sure you meant Real Madrid.  Thanks for the follow-up write-up. I was curious why the o/u was dropping.

Both games finish 3-0 ... nothing won, nothing lost.  Can't complain.

Updated record stays the same: 105-79 +52.10 units

Some very heated twitter conversations regarding the Manchester United game.

Here's the rule

It was the correct call.

The rules of the game clearly state, and I quoteL

"Careless Reckless, Using Excessive Force

Using Excessive Force means that the player has far exceeded the necessary use of foce and is in danger of injuring his opponent.

A player who used excessive force shall be sent off"

I've seen yellows for high boots that don't even make contact with a player. It is wel known in football that you don't attempt to take possession within arms length of an opponent with high cleats or cleats exposed.

Nani came in high with his boot straight into Arbaloa's chest. He missed the ball, made no contact with it and could have seriously injured his opponent. We wouldn't be having this debate if he broke Arbaloa's ribs.

The referee interpreted the rule correctly. That type of foul doesn't call for a yellow. It calls for a straight red. Ibrahimovic's foul for stomping on his opponent's foot earned him a direct red which was less excessive than this.

Bottom line is no matter how you cut it, the referee interpreted the rule correctly. There was physical contact by means of cleats into the chest without any ball contact. It was excessive and reckless and as per the rule, is a direct red.

In my view, it was a direct red card. Even former Mancheter United Captain Keane tweeted that "it was the correct call".

Who ever really thinks that Fever shouldn't watch or talk about soccer should get his panties unbunched and consider how much insight Fever provides to the forum