Tuesday Champions League Plays

Covers Posted Soccer: 83-61 +46.73 units

Celtic v Juventus over 2/2.5  -105

Celtic has been pretty feisty in the UCL and most importantly, they have not been the pushovers that many expected them to be coming into the tournament.  Now they find themselves in the knock-out phase against a very formidable opponent and quite frankly favourite to progress to the finals.

Celtic sits in first place in their domestic league.  We all remember how they played Barcelona in the group phase.  This team is no pushover.  They are in great form right now having scored 4 goals in 4 of their last 5 domestic league games.  They are the highest scoring team in the Scottish premier league, scoring 55 goals so far in 25 games.  Celtic scored 9 and allowed 8 in their 6 group phase games for an average of 2.83.

Juventus is also tied for first in goals scored in Serie A with 50 goals in 24 games and like Celtic, leads their domestic league. Juventus averaged 2 goals per game in the group phase, scoring 12 in 6 matches while allowing an average of a goal a game (6) in those games for a per game average of 3.00 total goals.   

Celtic had to take the long road to reach this phase having to play through qualification to get into the group stage.  They scored 2 goals in all 4 of their playoff qualification games and 2 goals in all their home games.  In the group phase they also scored 2 goals in a 2-1 win of Spartak Moscow and 2 goals in that memorable 2-1 win over Barcelona.  They were held scoreless against very defensive minded Benfica (who only managed 5 goals in the group phase).   So as you can see, Celtic has done well to score goals in this tournament, especially at home where they have one of the biggest home field advantages in Europe.

As for Juventus, as I mentioned, they are the goal leaders in Italy and in the Champions League won their group comfortably.  Their group games included a 2-2 draw at Chelsea, 1-1 draw with Nordsjælland and a 1-0 win over Shakhtar Donetsk.

I do think that Juventus is the better team but there’s something magical about Celtic so far, having progressed through the qualification phase, upsetting Barcelona at home and almost beating them on their own soil.  Both these teams lead their domestic leagues in goals and I do feel that Juventus will want to take goals back to Turin with them because they must be very aware that Celtic can beat anyone and are not a team to be taken lightly.

3 of my 4 models make this game 2-1 and my fourth makes it 3-1.  One of the 2-1 projections surprisingly goes to Celtic.  

The “over 2.5 goals” has prevailed in Celtic's last 5 games in the Champions League and one cannot underestimate the advantage of playing at Celtic Park. (Just ask Barcelona).  I don’t think that both these teams will be held off the score sheet.

If I make additional plays I will post them in this thread.

added:

Valencia v PSG over 2-2.5 -115 to win 2 units

Again, this is a score-line that perhaps many aren’t expecting however, with PSG having scored at least 2 goals in their last 4  Champions League matches to date I don’t see them staying off the scoreboard in this one.  Thiago Silva is missing for the heart of the PSG defence and I do think that Valencia has enough to take a goal from this match.  I remember watching Ancelotti mastermind AC Milan’s Champions League runs and one thing is for certain, he doesn’t play the sit back and wait tactics that many coaches do in these competitions.  He has always coached in a manner that puts his teams in the best possible scenarios at all times which means going for it.

Lavezzi, Ibrahimovic, Matuidi were all rested in the weekend match and saw limited duty so they will be fresh for this game.

As for Valencia, you never really know what you are going to get.  This is a team that got killed 5-0 by Real Madrid only to go out and draw Barcelona 1-1 in their subsequent game. Inconsistency has been a large factor for them this year.  However,   hey are a team that can score and come in with a well rested team like PSG.

Both of these teams like to push the play and go forward.  They aren’t the style of teams that like to sit back and defend.  There are a myriad of talented players on the pitch for this game that can all find the back of the net at some point and I forecast both teams hitting the scoreboard in this one.

PSG has the strongest attack in French football. Valencia, while not the best attack in Spain, has scored 23 goals at home in the Primera (12 games).  They have 12 goals in the competition compared to PSG’s 14 goals. 

PSG led their group with 14 goals scored and only 3 conceded in 6 games for an average of just under 3 total goals per game (2.83)  They did play in what could be considered one of the easier groups of the competition.  They scored 2 goals in 2 of their 3 road games in the group stage.

Valencia scored 12 and allowed 5 in their group which included group winners Bayern Munich for an average of 2.83. They managed 2 or more goals in 2  of their 3 home games in the group stage.  

My models predict 2-1 results in 3 of my 4 projections with the 4^th one spitting out a 1-1 draw.

It’s too easy to think that these teams will sit back and defend.  That’s not Carlo Ancelotti’s style.  He will attack on the road and has the strike force to do it.  I also see Valencia having opportunities and finding the back of the net.  They will attack the void left by Silva.

I know this is a square play - but what do you think of PSG to win? They've done well in away games in Ligue 1?