UEFA U21 Champs ...... thoughts, analysis, plays

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specimen24 · Answer

back in a min

specimen24 · Answer

warning: long.

not much time here. sent to bunch of friends & figure Id post here.

too many tourneys going on. so Copa is odd man out. and in some ways feel a little bad for the kids here as our womens team has taken the country by storm. so perhaps some of that will keep the interest up here and kind of 'forced' to do a major restructuring to the weeks plans.

U21 Euro Champs: we get to finally host an Intl champs; after basically got blacklisted. and tho that cloud has lifted a little, the stigma will always remain. people ask why Italy hasnt hosted a major tourney? I guess the nice way of saying it, they "spin" the story of 'stadiums outdated'; structurally unsafe and blah blah blah....... but those from within, we all know the real reason.... racism. We keep hitting the front pages with this stuff, its annoying. and with FIFA spending gadzillions promoting support against it (at least theyve done ONE thing right the past decade). and the last thing they want is peoples behavior on the field in front of an Intl audience. so 'stadium upgrades' is a nice front for the real reason.

all i know is if FIFA doesnt like you.. they REALLY dont like you.

Germans defending their title, Spain right behind them; combined theyve won 4 of the past 5 titles. and Italy has a strong team. but for me those English lads are the team to beat this time around.

Anyways, the U21s are vastly different from the U20's; the importance of this tourney? a lot of reasons on different levels. with scouts, agents, club reps swarming the places:

1) Continental bragging rights for 2 years. dont laugh. your most revered heros still talk about their titles won when they were younger.

2) Auto Qualification for the Olympics (i think its the 4 semi-finalists. havent checked)

3) get to see future stars; most of them are signed with top clubs. though some might not get much playing time with their clubs, they are there during practices, going up against elite superstars everyday. and LEARN the game. when you spend your time around coaches/teams in the EPL like Pep, players like Lionel, or defenders like Chiellini youre going to understand about positioning, formations, and how to be professional. that learning curve skyrockets because of this. let me put it this way, with the U20s getting a red card hardly means anything; the U21s??? red card means 'deep sh*t". because like their Senior teams, these U21 have the skill and understanding to exploit such advantages.

2) for many of these youngsters its their final time together before they 'go off on their own' ways. maybe some will luckily become teammates again at one point (or represent their country at the Mens level). but for the most part, depending on their country and federation (some elected to keep squads intact and just move thru the youth ranks as they all get older) so theyve been together for 8-9 years and the bonds last lifetimes. first country which comes to mind is Serbia (Croats right behind them) incredibly tough to beat at the youth level. perhaps not as talented, but they are (bleep)-ing tough as nails. that bond.....foul one of them hard and 9 of his buddies are in your face.

if youre curious how/what a certain style a team employs? just think back to what you saw in the WC. its pretty much the same for each country. this is the final stepping stone for many of the kids before possibly moving on to represent their countrys Mens team. Systems, strategies, styles are practically mirror images of each other because of this.

specimen24 · Answer

England: few weeks ago did a quick check of the rosters and thought id get a really nice price on the 'darkhorse'; check the lines and, cazzo!!!!!, theyre the odds on favorite. no disrespect to any 3-Lion supporter but I have really bad luck when backing an English side in any tourney when theyre favored. but this squad is LOADED with EPL players, either signed straight out or loaned out. and it doesnt take a rocket scientist to figure this team is talented because of that. buddy says the biggest... by far... is that kid Loden (never heard of him) just turned 19. STARTED several games for City this year. when Pep says he'll be on Southgates roster for Euros, well... then "i got to go see this kid". Pep doesnt hand out praises all too often like that, never mind a teenager. just being able to make an EPL roster validates this squads strength. (at least in my mind). friend out there says 'best defense in this tourney" unbeaten, conceded just 4 goals in 10 matches during qualifying.

*** of note, i havent gotten this far in my research, but england is ineligible for the Olympics so im not sure what happens if they make semis*****

France: theyre going to be a tough out, loaded up front too. that kid Aouar locked down a starting spot with Lyon whom advanced in UCL. but their captain and best defender is out of the tourney. unless you have some other-worldly player(s) up front, this thing usually gets won with defense.

Germany: as always. no real 'superstar' but that German machine just keeps churning 'em out. scored the most during qualifying (33). really isnt much to write about with them... theyre defending champions for godsakes and have 4-5 players from that title run still on this squad. cazzo!!! they honestly dont have any weakness, just 11 kids all playing at the same high level.

Spain: Ceballos, friend says hes their next superstar. won the 'Best Player' award TWO years ago in this thing, and Spain didnt even win the title. plays for Real with a sweet contract too with his teammate Vallejo there. team-wise, probably the best offense in this thing, and thats saying a lot.

Serbia: Serbs finally have a 'superstar', Jovic. some of you might remember seeing him as he carried Frankfurt through the UEL semis scoring bunches along the way (i think he just signed with Barca too). he also starts for their Mens Natl Team. and like I mentioned above, that Serb mentality... that superstar with a very wealthy, profitable career ahead of him.... is willing to come back and risk a possible injury just to play with his childhood buddies one last time. the lines might not reflect this.... but DO NOT count out the Serbs. they got stuck in a group with Spain & Portugal 2 years ago and gave both of them h*ll.

Italy: (taking off tinted glasses) a definite contender. lost in the semis to Spain 2 years ago, and open this thing with a rematch. you all probably know Kean, the only reason he didnt start for Juventus was because we signed you-know-who last summer. and his learning curve went through the roof since Christian came over. and at this level, he can dominate. downside? we are hosting, hence didnt have to go through qualifiers; in some ways thats a BIG disadvantage at the youth level. but we finally have one of the most talented teams with 5 members from our senior squad here. perhaps the 15-year wait is over.

Futures:

theres FIVE countries priced just below the 500s, which makes it virtually impossible to pick anyone to 'hedge' in the manner I prefer doing. Germans have several starters back from their title team 2 years ago and are the lowest of the 5 countries, which pretty much tells you how wide open this thing is.

Italy to win it all @+450 - as always. with our ladies & Under 20s and Molinari in the hunt, its been a huge month thus far.

Serbia @+1600 - as noted above, they now have a superstar. no way in h*ll should they be 4-digits.

Best Finishing position England/France: England @-125 (large) im bullish with these Lions, just dont want to take too many outrights so heading to the indiv matchups. since the '17 tourney, England had reeled off an 18-match unbeaten run before finally losing to Germany this past March (actually, the Germans were the only country to have beaten them since 2017 in like 28 matches + knocked them out in PK's back in '17). but sweet mother of god do i have the worst luck with English sides, hope this breaks it.

Top Goalscorer: Kean @+900 - at this level, he can literally take over a game. when an experienced defender like Giorgio says in an interview "he's Azzurris future" i tend to believe that kind of stuff. seen enough of him to compare, best striker in this tourney.

2019 Total Goals over 61.5 @-115 - hammered this one. includes xtra time goals. buddy made a big play on this, and likewise. this is awfully low when you consider theres several dominant strikers whom actually start for their Senior teams here. to put this in perspective, a total of 21 matches and youre only hanging a 62 for it?? the semis/final are almost always good for 8-10 goals as well. dont get too concerned if 1st matches are low scoring

specimen24 · Answer

Sundays Games:Poland/Belgium - Waffle boys are a mirror image of their Senior team; full throttle-forward with a fast paced european style. its an opener, so theres always a little jittery, caution, and what-not but 8 of their 9 matches belw over the total since last year. and Polish defense isnt their strong suit.  Poand/Belgium over 2.5 @&#x2B;115Italy/Spain - disappointed cant make this one. a rematch of the semis 2 years ago. on paper this looks like a goalfest, Spains offense is scary-good, but so is ours. but i got to lay off this one, two title contenders in an opener? smells like a draw but my loyalty wants no part of a draw.  PASS. might be back later this eveningGL to all

piotrtoro · Answer

[Quote]2019 Total Goals over 61.5 @-115 - hammered this one. includes xtra time goals. buddy made a big play on this, and likewise. this is awfully low when you consider theres several dominant strikers whom actually start for their Senior teams here. to put this in perspective, a total of 21 matches and youre only hanging a 62 for it?? the semis/final are almost always good for 8-10 goals as well. dont get too concerned if 1st matches are low scoring[/Quote]

Good luck Spec! clover

btw where did you get that line (incl xtra time goals) - I'd love to bet that but can't find that at my bookie peace_5

Grey88 · Answer

Nice call on the Poland over ! Thought for sure you would have a play on your BOYZ (U21)... No Homer

CodyBanks · Answer

Thanks for the write ups spec and good luck to you

Rickyantonio · Answer

&#xA; &#xA;Good calls. Italy surely did not forget that it has given up some big moments to spanish teams in the past.

specimen24 · Answer

Euro U21: that was a dominant performance by our guys, conceded that early one and Spain has us on our heels for 20 minutes, then we just took over. in reality its just one win, but Italy looked powerful moving forward and our marking in the back was exceptional. Spain is NOT some creampuff.

piotr

good to see ya buddy

as you know, this tourney is a big thing in europe, locals had a boatload of futures, exotics so i jumped on that one. many of the european-based books had team totals, group totals, tourney totals and everything else you could possibly imagine etc etc. it actually takes a lot of freaking discipline to NOT go 'overboard'. had a bunch of team totals lined up when a friend advised to look at that one. so basically I just kind of rolled everything all into the tourney play. i would have went as high as 65. theres far too many free flowing offensive styles in this thing. of course, they still need to convert chances, but I really cant concern self with that aspect with future plays.

Grey,

i wasnt planning to. i kind of have that "rule" of not playing sides with Azzuri/Juve all too often, just thy ways. and figured tho the U21's has that "Youth" status I really dont consider them 'youth' teams in the sense, unlike the U20s. got the future and just wanted to cheer em on like always. but when arrived to watch with bunch of old buddies they just glared at me. I was like... "Ma Dai!???? !!!!" (an expression of 'youre kidding me'). got the arm twisted so to speak. so i guess it worked out ok ehhhh?

Cody,

as always.

Rickey

have one of our best squads in years. perhaps individually not as good as others but they play well together. again, just one game, but it was a nice start considering all the pressure/distractions with what hosting brings, i just prefer to keep the 'expectations' in check.

Group B: this is the toughest, by far, of the 3 groups.

Serbia/Austria - these two were paired in same Group during qualifying stages with the Serbs winning on the road 3-1 on a late penalty; and played to a 0-0 draw as Serbs simply sat back and clinched qualification getting a point with two rounds remaining. both these teams extremely defensive minded,Serbs reeled off 4 straight cleansheets heading into this thing. Austrians are solid defensively and have the quality to grab a point here but as I put in my writeup, this Serbia team is a tough nut, they may not be the prettiest, but rarely do they get outworked either; and they have a bona-fide soon-to-be world class striker in Jovic and in tight matches players like this can be the simple difference.

Serbia to win @+110, Serbia/Austria under 2.5 @-130 (smaller)

Germany/Denmark - in each of the past 2 years along Germans way to the semis they played this Denmark squad in their opener and blew them away 3-0. and as put in writeup, this well-oiled German machine has 4-5 starters back from '17 squad. Danes just arent on that same level as the other contenders, lost to Croats in their prep warm up and more disturbing was getting blown away by both Spain & England 6 months ago. it's an opening match, so theres always that possibility of tightness but I dont think ive ever faded the Germans at this level - theyre on a 12-game unbeaten run heading into this thing which includes their last 3 of Italy, France, & England - and sure a h*ll am not going to start now.

Germany -1 @+108, Germany/Denmark over 3.5 @+175

GL to all

gambling-devil · Answer

thx, but have to pass this tourney .... too many and not enough time.

elpr0digy · Answer

good luck spec.Italy was so physical with spain that they broke them down. was cool to see.kean best striker in the tourney? might not even be the best striker on the team... hehehe.

specimen24 · Answer

Gambling

i totally understand what you mean. no worries.its not a knock on anything except not having the time. had to make the same choice myself. h*ll, had to re-arrange the entire weeks agenda too.

elpr

yeah true. i should have xplained self better in sense of what i think a 'striker' is.of course a large part of being a good striker is scoring goals. technically, chiesa doesnt even play that position. and spain decided to mark/shadow kean with their Real Madrid defender and send others over to help. opened up everything for everyone else. it will be interesting to see when someone parks a bus on us.

arrgy · Answer

GL.&#xA;I am skipping the first match today, too hard to handicap, could go either way.&#xA;Second match however, I love Germany, and I can&#x27;t believe they are only a 1 goal favorite. I especially love the first half bet, this German squad has averaged over 1.5 goals in the first half, I hope they cruise in this one.

Phillip2002 · Answer

What do you think about France? I haven&#x27;t kept up with this tourney at all but looking at rosters they seem to have the most experienced players, if they can beat England tomorrow, I think they look really good.&#xA;The germans also look nice and I agree with you on that...

specimen24 · Answer

arrgy

first match pretty much going as expected. austrians scored on first/only chance. a slugfest.

phil

i initially rated france highly. but their best player/defender/captain is out (Diallo) and because of that put them a notch below the others. but offensively they are fun to watch. beating england is a big 'IF', shoudl be a good one though.

festivus4us · Answer

Thanks for the time and effort spec, your insight is always helpful. You’re definitely one of the most insightful guys here, thanks again.

Anyways, pretty gruesome injury for Wolf of Austria during that game. Really hate to see that.

elpr0digy · Answer

chiesa is a winger. I was implying that cutrone is the better "striker". you see his movement on that second goal? that was world class movement.

specimen24 · Answer

Germans put on a masterclass yesterday on how to properly counterattack. geez these kids are good.

Poland/Belgium over 2.5 @+115 (W)

Italy to win @+190 (W) - unposted and arm-twisted

Serbia to win @+110, Serbia/Austria under 2.5 @-130 (L, W)

Germany -1 @+108, Germany/Denmark over 3.5 @+175 (W, W)

15 goals, 47 to go. 17 matches remaining.

Romania/Croatia - another two defensive minded squads. arguably the best player in Romanian history (Gheorgie Hagi) now has his son following his footsteps as Romanians here for 1st time in 2 decades. this kid was good enough to get a 7-digit transfer to Serie A before he even hit 18 years old, has since gone back home. Dont know much about them but DO know this.... Romania came out of a bloody tough qualifying bracket - which included Potugal, Bosnia, Wales, and Switz - UNBEATEN, and conceded just 4 goals. so right there line with them seems off. Croats a decent side as always, scored 31 during qualify to rank just below the Germans overall, but there should be a '*' next to that because over half of them (16) came vs creampuffs San Marino & Moldova in a much weaker group. taking a shot at thy first big dog in this thing.

Romania to win @+290 +1/2 @-115, Romania/Croatia under 2.5 @-120

England/France - I should lay off this one, but cant. have a future already with Lions finishing higher than Les Bleus at tourney end; so obviously this will play a large part of that. based on styles, probably the best matchup in 1st Round (we sold our tix to this cause of the ladies) as mentioned already, Lions have a valid bona-fide defense; everybody chips in. scary thing is if they came full strength theyd probably be near evens to win it all. Rashford(ManU), Chilwell(Leic), and Alexander(Pool) are STARTERS for their clubs. (but hadnt been withe the team for a while). yet Lions still reeled off an 18 match unbeaten streak since last euros, only team to have beaten them for two years is Germany. France are attack minded and will just keep coming; but as mentioned, they are missing their best player/defender/captain in the middle of that backline. and theyve been in poor form coming into this thing with just 1 win in the past 6 matches.

England to win @+175

'vacation time', 4-day/4 match U21 adventure. making rest of plays for the week, lines not up yet but will be on these. if gals come in 2nd we have "BIG PROBLEMOS" on saturday (again).

Wed:

Spain/Belgium over 3.5 @+130 (might do a 'runner' here)

Thurs:

Denmark pick @-120

take the under in Germany/Serbia

Friday:

take the England/Romania over 2.5 (should see a nice price on this at '+' money)

France to beat Croatia on the HC.

have a good week and GL to all

FORZA ARRURRINI

Phillip2002 · Answer

With you on Romania, BOL for this week

specimen24 · Answer

elpr, you are right cutrones move, that was good awareness on his part.  regarding Cheisa..... the &#x27;knock&#x27; on Chiesa doesnt have anything to do with his abilities, they(Fior, Azzurri) just dont know where to put him. hes a &#x27;winger&#x27; but technically hes more of a striker whom plays in that False 9 formation. hes not some "prima" and doesnt mind getting grass stains on his shorts (aka, helps out on defense).   see his first goal yesterday?  thats high soccer IQ.  quick peek, goalie out of position and bangs it home. GK&#x27;s should always protect the near post first, if a player drills one low across his body to the far post and scores ya just tip your hat and applaud as theres nothing ya can do about that. thats what i mean when i say the U21 arent really &#x27;youth teams&#x27; though thats what the designation states.      hope we can continue onwards.

fintimtc · Answer

Love an 18&#x27; OVER .&#xA; &#xA;BOL Spec&#xA; &#xA;Fin

specimen24 · Answer

fint    ehh, i had the under. but glad you hit.   this Hagi kid better than I thought.

arrgy · Answer

England/France Over 2.5

specimen24 · Answer

well, that was fun.

first update, then thoughts, and todays final matches. trying to get everything organized

Italy to win it all @+450 (pending)

Serbia @+1600 (L)

Best Finishing position England/France: England @-125 (L)

Top Goalscorer Kean @+900 (L) - reportedly injured. reality? he decided team meetings werent important.

Total goals over 61.5 (pending) hammer

Poland/Belgium over 2.5 @+115 (W)

Italy to win @+190 (W) - unposted and arm-twisted

Serbia to win @+110, Serbia/Austria under 2.5 @-130 (L, W)

Germany -1 @+108, Germany/Denmark over 3.5 @+175 (W, W)

Romania to win @+290, +1/2 @-111, Romania/Croatia under 2.5 @-120 (W, W, L)

England to win @+175 (L)

Spain/Belgium over 3.5 @+125, over 4.5 @+300 (L, L)

Romania to win @+450, +1/2 @+135, Romania/England over 3.5 @+450 (W, W, W)

France -1 @-130 (P)

Spain/Poland over 3.5 @+125 (W)

Italy -1.5 @+110, over 3.5 @+120 (W, W)

Denmark -1 @-115 (W)

England & Serbia (nuclear explosion) - team unity exploded after each saw red cards in opening matches.reports of Serb players leaving hotel attempting to go back home after the German embarrassment. & England? like i said in writeup, i have the worst luck with them when they go off as favs. cazzo!!!!....... first of all, after their opening match security had to step in to separate one of the team assistants with Choudhury whom managed to perform BOTH 'cardinal sins' of defending in the penalty area. getting a red and putting your team down a man is one thing, conceding a PK when ur up 1-0 is another. I dont blame that assistant for losing his cool. that was just a dumb, dumb, dumb, super-dumb play. friend told me lots of finger-pointing went on; so, now after losing, not only did England need to win their next match vs Romania, they needed to do it with goals too. so why on earth is their best player and their 'engine' on the offense not in starting lineup? Foden finally came on at the hour mark vs Romania and within minutes promptly bangs one off the woodwork. and everything went downhill afterwards, defensive mistakes, even the GK let one squiggle thru his hands. scoreless in the 75th minute and ends up 4-2??

the talent is there, and the Lions youth system seems set for the future; all is not lost because seeing that kid Loden play make me realize Pep wasnt over-exaggerating when stating he will be their midfielder in the future.

- this is Germanys tournament to lose. that German 'machine', wont go too far into details but theyre simply on a different platform from everyone else. the attention to detail and Germans almost never had those problems of dissension which affect other nations. well, at least not at the youth level. if anything ya just got to respect what they do

- total stands at 58. 4 goals in 5 matches remaining.

specimen24 · Answer

Todays matches:Croatia/England - as stated above, Lions in a mess. if they have any sense of pride theyll take a deep breath and put forth a good performance to go home with a &#x27;1&#x27; in the &#x27;win&#x27; column. faded the Serbs yesterday with the mess theyre in, not all too keen on doing this again tonight.  though England have just been god-awful in the back which is the most suprising of anything. but theyre coming in with a full lineup and at least expect them to put forth the desire. need to knock down that juice tho.England to win &#x2B; over 2.5 @evensRomania/France - if Romania beats France then Italy advances. if France beats Romania by 3 then Italy advances.   any other scenario and we&#x27;re out. which kind of seems to suit everybody fine because the ladies are front &amp; center in Pasta-land. and as you might expect, the lines reflect a "gentlemanly" draw with the juice attached.  both would move on.  but the problem with this is that they dont really do this stuff at the youth level. and 2nd place gets the defending champs Germany, good luck with that.  got to lay off this one as Romanians have won a lot of fans with their style. PASS.GL to all

UEFA U21 Champs ...... thoughts, analysis, plays

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